RealGM

Sometimes, our eyes can deceive us. Here's a catch-all thread where we can track the performance of the team and its individual players using advanced metrics. While advanced stats are not the be-all and end-all when discussing team or player performance, they can be useful data points to factor into our discussions. The purpose of this thread is to gain a deeper understanding of the value of our players and the strength of our team compared to the rest of the league.

So without further ado, here are some advanced stats on our key players last season! I omitted players who are not with the team anymore and players who did not play significant minutes with us last year.

Let's start with a pretty well-known advanced metric - Player Efficiency Rating (PER), or the pace-adjusted rating of a player's per-minute productivity. The league average is 15.00.

Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
Out of 353 eligible players

72. Jarrett Allen 17.56
88. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 16.90
118. Spencer Dinwiddie 15.89
129. Ed Davis 15.55
135. D'Angleo Russell 15.31
165. Demarre Carroll 14.31
167. Caris LeVert 14.30
198. Joe Harris 13.39
238. Allen Crabbe 12.33

Next is RPM, or real plus/minus. While the plus/minus you find on a box score can be helpful, that number is greatly affected by a player's teammates. RPM attempts to define a single player's true impact by estimating how many points he adds or subtracts, on average, to his team's net scoring margin for each 100 possessions played. This article gives a good breakdown of RPM if you are not familiar with it: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus

Real Plus-Minus (RPM)
Out of 521 eligible players

43. Spencer Dinwiddie 2.40
68. Demarre Carroll 1.65
95. Ed Davis 1.03
190. Allen Crabbe -0.48
207. Joe Harris -0.69
226. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -0.83
318. Jarrett Allen -1.59
382. Caris LeVert -2.07
413. D'Angelo Russell -2.42

Offensive Real Plus-Minus (ORPM)
Out of 521 eligible players

23. Spencer Dinwiddie 2.61
76. Joe Harris 0.93
88. Allen Crabbe 0.65
116. Demarre Carroll 0.24
117. D'Angelo Russell 0.23
192. Caris LeVert -0.58
226. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -0.93
285. Ed Davis -1.39
462. Jarrett Allen -2.46

Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM)
Out of 521 eligible players

26. Ed Davis 2.42
85. Demarre Carroll 1.41
138. Jarrett Allen 0.87
240. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 0.10
290. Spencer Dinwiddie -0.21
419. Allen Crabbe -1.13
451. Caris LeVert -1.49
458. Joe Harris -1.62
508. D'Angelo Russell -2.65

Next, we have RPM wins - RPM Wins provide an estimate of the number of wins each player has contributed to his team's win total on the season. RPM Wins include the player's Real Plus-Minus and his number of possessions played.

RPM Wins
Out of 521 eligible players

33. Spencer Dinwiddie 8.09
54. Demarre Carroll 6.64
113. Ed Davis 3.79
115. Allen Crabbe 3.75
144. Joe Harris 3.08
155. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 2.88
222. Jarrett Allen 1.42
235. Caris LeVert 1.27
286. D'Angelo Russell 0.57

Next up is Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP. VORP is a box score estimate of the points per 100 team possessions that a player contributed above a replacement level player.

Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)
Team rankings

Spencer Dinwiddie 1.3
Demarre Carroll 1.2
Joe Harris 1.1
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 0.8
Jarrett Allen 0.8
Ed Davis 0.7
Allen Crabbe 0.7
Caris LeVert 0.7
D'Angelo Russell 0.5

How do our guys compare to the best players in the league? The top 20 VORP values last season ranged from 8.9 (LeBron) to 3.4 (Otto Porter). Even our top players have quite a ways to go.


So that's how our players fare in some of the popular advanced metrics out there. Feel free to discuss, add your own numbers, or request different stats. I'm planning on posting new numbers/rankings a few times a year.

We should probably add RAPM to this as well

Just in case of interest

JLin’s numbers from. 2016-2017 season - 36 games and 24.5 mpg

PER was 19.2

RPM was 0.45 (ORPM was positive 0.48 and DRPM was negative 0.03)

VORP was 0.9

RAPM metrics:

League Rank/Offense/Defense/Overall

D'Angelo Russell:
#649 -0.2699 -2.5766 -2.8465

Caris LeVert:
#92 0.2138 1.1531 1.3669

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson:
#120 0.5363 0.5706 1.107

Jarrett Allen:
#176 0.2499 0.4709 0.7208

Allen Crabbe:
#169 0.6031 0.1724 0.7755

Spencer Dinwiddie:
#563 0.1454 -1.5402 -1.3947

Joe Harris:
#528 -0.2852 -0.8633 -1.1485

Demarre Carroll:
#212 -0.3626 0.8156 0.453

Ed Davis:
#60 0.5212 1.3187 1.8399

It's interesting that Levert comes up pretty bad on most of the advanced metrics number but then pretty solid on the RAPM. I'm too much of a mouthbreather to understand why.

Also, any way you slice it, Dlo's advanced metrics numbers are atrocious.

yeah that's what I was thinking. I mean LeVert wasn't -bad- per say last season (although he started off the season poorly), but he was pretty inconsistent so I was kind of surprised at how his RAPM numbers looked.

Everything else though pretty much vibes with the eye test for me (RAPM wise). Joe Harris being a negative is kind of iffy. Crabbe being a positive defensively isn't that much of a shock I thought he competed out there on D the entire season.

Russell has got to become efficient on offense. That in itself would help to clean up some of these god awful numbers. If you went by advanced metrics alone he was damn near the worst player on the team for gods sake.

Thanks for the RAPM suggestion, it seems to be a worthwhile addition to the discussion.