Nets 2018-19 Win Prediction Thread

[Prokorov]

Vegas has just released its over/under for win totals for all NBA teams. I think that means its time for another win predictions thread (Props to Roy Tarpley for starting this!) Vegas has the nets at 25.5 wins next season.


RULES:
* Select a win total prediction for next season
* if you select a range (i.e. 28-30 wins) the average of that range will be taken
* you may update your prediction as many times as you like prior to the start of the seasn
* you may update your predicition anytime there is a major roster move before or during the season
* you may update your prediction anytime there is an injury before or during the season


Last year's thread:
viewtopic.php?t=1596149

Vegas Lines
Golden State 68.5
Boston Celtics 57.5
Philadelphia 76ers 56.5
.
.
.
Sacramento Kings 27.5
Atlanta Hawks 26.5
]Brooklyn Nets 25.5

Forum Predictions
Deroma - 45
FlipFlopShot - 44
Moonpie - 41
MosDefinition - 37
Netaman - 37
Aussienet3 - 36
ZemGoat - 35
BeachBoy - 35
Soul fist - 34.5
Claud - 34
TheNetsFan - 34
Yit - 34
3point_chucker - 34
Mgrand15 - 34
bws94 - 33
Lamak - 33
jtsmith - 33
Palmeirense
Brook - 33
Vegas Odds - 32.5
Fanduel oddsl - 32.5
NyCeEvo - 32
Treiz - 32
JKiddy - 32
Keith Van Horn - 31
VC4Pres - 31
HelloBrooklyn - 30
RoyTarpley - 30
JiggaMan06 - 30
Curns13 - 30
TheNetsFan - 30
ShakesandFries - 30
Trader_Joe - 30
Kamaze - 29
Prokorov - 29
NetSymptom - 29
MDB - 29
Bud29 - 28
Shark - 26
Stone - 26
Vegas -25.5
Papi-swav - 25

[Prokorov]

I'm predicting the same win total i did last year... 29 wins:

-Bottom 3 talent among NBA teams, no major additions, rookies are low impact, years away from impact/big roles
-cant sustain injuries, lack of talent becomes magnified if/when starter or rotation guy goes down
-lack of defenders, 2 way players
-No urgency to get best lineup to close out games, experience/letting guys struggle over lineup best suited to secure a win
-Marks/Atkinson have again said they wont measure themselves by wins, development is the goal
-Priority is on clearing cap for next season, a push to be competitive down the road, not now
-Carroll/Lin could potentially be moved

Alot of reasons, but mostly, we still dont have any talent on this team, we will play a ton of young guys who will be inconsistent and struggle, and we dont have the talent to overcome injury. i dont think we will be last, because of hard work, hustle, and coaching... but id say 7th worst or so at 29 wins seems right.

[CalamityX12]

[jtsmith]

damn. vegas is predicting we will do worse than last season... ouch...
I'd say 33 wins

[vincecarter4pres]

I'm sure I'll change this a bunch of times, but I'm going with 31 wins this time. That over is suspiciously low though.

[TheNetsFan]

I'm sure I'll change this a bunch of times, but I'm going with 31 wins this time. That over is suspiciously low though.

Different circumstances at the end of the season this year.
1) We now have incentive to rest players and lose meaningless games towards the end of the year.
2) We're all-in on cap space for next season, so there's a chance that we can end up trading players (Crabbe, Harris) at the deadline to free up space for next year.
3) We can trade expiring players at the deadline to teams competing for the playoffs.

[steady]

Yep. Seems like Vegas is expecting Nets to tank, and also to trade plus players during the year.

[FlipFlopShot]

44

[Trader_Joe]

I'm struggling to think of a worse roster right now.

Suns added Ayton, Bridges, Okobo and Ariza.
Sacramento added Bagley, Giles and still have cap
Atlanta added Trey Young, Huerter and Spellman and still have cap
Dallas added Doncic, Jordan
Chicago added W.Carter Jr and Hutchinson
Orlando added Bamba and J.Grant
Memphis added JJJ, K.Anderson, and get back Conley and Gasol

And all those guys had young talent to expect growth from like us.

I'm thinking 25 wins is fair.

[vincecarter4pres]

I'm sure I'll change this a bunch of times, but I'm going with 31 wins this time. That over is suspiciously low though.

Different circumstances at the end of the season this year.
1) We now have incentive to rest players and lose meaningless games towards the end of the year.
2) We're all-in on cap space for next season, so there's a chance that we can end up trading players (Crabbe, Harris) at the deadline to free up space for next year.
3) We can trade expiring players at the deadline to teams competing for the playoffs.

These are all good points. I'm just hoping we're at least entertaining to watch most nights this year. Bring on that high pick!

[vincecarter4pres]

I'm struggling to think of a worse roster right now.

Suns added Ayton, Bridges, Okobo and Ariza.
Sacramento added Bagley, Giles and still have cap
Atlanta added Trey Young, Huerter and Spellman and still have cap
Dallas added Doncic, Jordan
Chicago added W.Carter Jr and Hutchinson
Orlando added Bamba and J.Grant
Memphis added JJJ, K.Anderson, and get back Conley and Gasol

And all those guys had young talent to expect growth from like us.

I'm thinking 25 wins is fair.

I'm not impressed with Trae Young or anything Atlanta has going for them outside John Collins, they're easily worse than us.

Sacto has 1 if not 2 better prospects, but for this year, not seeing much of anything.

Chicago has a few nice long term pieces, don't see them putting it together this year, similar to us.

Same with Orlando.

I'd love you to be right and as an in general I agree, this team is so far away from big win totals. But those 4 teams specifically should be worse than us even without injuries.

[ZemGOAT]

35
I think RHJ, Allen and Russell make a huge jump

[Prokorov]

I'm not impressed with Trae Young or anything Atlanta has going for them outside John Collins, they're easily worse than us.

What are you impressed with that we have? i dont know what we have is any better then Young/Bazemore/Prince/Collins/etc...

I'd love you to be right and as an in general I agree, this team is so far away from big win totals. But those 4 teams specifically should be worse than us even without injuries.

maybe, especially if they tank... but if you look at the vegas odds, they dont have them much higher then we do

[Trader_Joe]

I'm struggling to think of a worse roster right now.

Suns added Ayton, Bridges, Okobo and Ariza.
Sacramento added Bagley, Giles and still have cap
Atlanta added Trey Young, Huerter and Spellman and still have cap
Dallas added Doncic, Jordan
Chicago added W.Carter Jr and Hutchinson
Orlando added Bamba and J.Grant
Memphis added JJJ, K.Anderson, and get back Conley and Gasol

And all those guys had young talent to expect growth from like us.

I'm thinking 25 wins is fair.

I'm not impressed with Trae Young or anything Atlanta has going for them outside John Collins, they're easily worse than us.

Sacto has 1 if not 2 better prospects, but for this year, not seeing much of anything.

Chicago has a few nice long term pieces, don't see them putting it together this year, similar to us.

Same with Orlando.

I'd love you to be right and as an in general I agree, this team is so far away from big win totals. But those 4 teams specifically should be worse than us even without injuries.

Chicago won 1 less game than us. Added Carter Jr, Hutchinson and have Lauri M, LaVine, Dunn, Portis, etc. Just seem like they should be much better.

Sacramento won 1 less than us as well. they added the #2 pick, healthy Giles (maybe), have Fox, Bogdanovic, Hield, Skal, WCS and still have $17m in money.

And I like what Atlanta did. They won 4 less, but Collins is a beast and Prince a great glue guy to add to Young, Spellmen and Huetrer.

Yeah, Orlando kinda sux, but they did just get Mozzy.

[Prokorov]

I think if we organically won 25-30 games and had a top 5 pick that is the absolute best case scenario. no tanking, but like the last few years e just dont have the talent to not be a bad team.

[Roy Tarpley]

The baseline is 28 wins from 2017-18.

- The Nets substitute 20 minutes of Ed Davis for 20 minutes of Mozgov/Acy/Zeller. Davis is better than Mozgov but Zeller was pretty good so I think I'll put us at the win pace we had with Zeller, which was around mid-30s. (+2 wins)

- The Nets get more minutes from DLo. The Nets actually had a worse record with Dlo last year than without. But Dlo may improve a little now that he's healthy and settled in the system. So I call this a wash.

- The Nets get maybe 15 minutes from Lin. If Lin was 100% healthy, I'd be pushing for 40 wins again like last year. But who knows what his health will be. I don't think he'll be 100% but his leadership and mentoring will be helpful. So this is a wash too.

- The team returns 9 players from last year so there should be added chemistry, and continual development from Dlo, Dinwiddie, Levert, Allen, RHJ, Crabbe AND development in Kenny's game management. (+4 wins)

I think a lot will depend on how well the teams start off. If it starts off poorly, then Carroll/Lin could be moved and then it's a tankathon. If the team is competing for the 8th spot, I think there will be pressure to not trade the two or at least just one, and then the end record could be a lot better.

So 28 + 6 wins = 34

Looks like I need to bet the over again!

[Keith Van Horn]

I'm in line with VC4P... 31 wins. Probably not the worst, but bottom 5 this year.

[shakendfries]

This season is a a failure if we win 35 games. I hope we win around 30 and get lucky in the lottery

[Prokorov]

The baseline is 28 wins from 2017-18.

- The Nets substitute 20 minutes of Ed Davis for 20 minutes of Mozgov/Acy/Zeller. Davis is better than Mozgov but Zeller was pretty good so I think I'll put us at the win pace we had with Zeller, which was around mid-30s. (+2 wins)

- The Nets get more minutes from DLo. The Nets actually had a worse record with Dlo last year than without. But Dlo may improve a little now that he's healthy and settled in the system. So I call this a wash.

- The Nets get maybe 15 minutes from Lin. If Lin was 100% healthy, I'd be pushing for 40 wins again like last year. But who knows what his health will be. I don't think he'll be 100% but his leadership and mentoring will be helpful. So this is a wash too.

- The team returns 9 players from last year so there should be added chemistry, and continual development from Dlo, Dinwiddie, Levert, Allen, RHJ, Crabbe AND development in Kenny's game management. (+4 wins)

I think a lot will depend on how well the teams start off. If it starts off poorly, then Carroll/Lin could be moved and then it's a tankathon. If the team is competing for the 8th spot, I think there will be pressure to not trade the two or at least just one, and then the end record could be a lot better.

So 28 + 6 wins = 34

Looks like I need to bet the over again!

using the prior season as a bench mark is a fools errand and id be VERY careful not to do that if you are betting real money. for here, sure **** and giggles whatever but if you are really thinking of betting id look at it independant of last season.

i mean the warriors added kevin durant and lost more games 2 years in a row since adding him

a 49 win nets team added kevin garnett and paul pierce to replace stackhouse and wallace and lost more games

google "ewing theory" for a bajillion more examples.

i dont think 34 is a bad prediction, but i dont think prior year can be used as a baseline... since last year is dependant on what the other 29 teams did/didnt do as well and assuming they stayed completely static

[TheNetsFan]

I'm struggling to think of a worse roster right now.

Suns added Ayton, Bridges, Okobo and Ariza.
Sacramento added Bagley, Giles and still have cap
Atlanta added Trey Young, Huerter and Spellman and still have cap
Dallas added Doncic, Jordan
Chicago added W.Carter Jr and Hutchinson
Orlando added Bamba and J.Grant
Memphis added JJJ, K.Anderson, and get back Conley and Gasol

And all those guys had young talent to expect growth from like us.

I'm thinking 25 wins is fair.

That sounds great on paper, but I think the impact of those rookie additions are in the future. You can't expect most of them to give you much in year 1.

I do think there's a chance that we both win more games & finish with a pick higher than 8th.