Prokorov wrote:he could become an all-star, sure... why pay for it when we will have RFA rights and cant have him prove it. if he wants a 4 year deal in the 68-72 range extension sure lets play ball. otherwise you are paying an oft injured roll player who struggles to shoot consistnetly like an all-star for no reason.
if he was a pending UFA it might be different. then is no risk of losing him, only of overpaying himNow I'll set you to task: name a 24yo wing who averaged 13/4/4 with good defense in their 3rd year, never improved beyond that but got an extension and was deemed an albatross contract in retrospect. The keys here are the 4apg for a wing, and good defense. Those are the hallmarks of a player whose skill set and style of play are conducive to continual improvement.
again no one is saying he cant become a 20/5/5 allstar who improves his 3point shooting. we are just saying he isnt that now, has durability concerns, and we have hs RFA rights. it would be a big overpay to give him that based on what he is done. make him prove he can stay healthy and take that next step
Congratulations, you played yourself. You agreed that the average salary of a 5-year max contract for Caris would be $34mil, and I'm suggesting a $24mil average. Yet you still refer to that $24mil average salary is paying him "like an All-Star for no reason". NO ONE is positing that we should offer a max extension to Caris right now. $120mil over 5 years is not max money anymore, it's not even close.
Second, your Evan Turner example is a good one, and it proves my point. You met the statistical criteria I set out for you, and I doff my cap to you for that. HOWEVER, the reason Evan Turner does NOT meet the contractual criteria (max extension which later proved to be an albatross) is exactly why Caris is special enough to lock up now. Turner got traded from PHI to IND before his 4th year, and then Indy renounced his RFA rights the next summer. They knew that Turner was a ball-dominant, offensively ineffective player. He signed for 2 years, $7mil with BOS as a UFA, then got his big-money payday with Portland.
Even that 4-year, $70mil deal that Evan signed with the Blazers wasn't a max then, and that's all you want to offer Caris now, when he's a vastly superior player, and the cap is $40mil higher than when Evan signed his deal???
Check out win scores per 48, VORP, Off / Def Rtg, or any deep stat you like. Age-24, 3rd season Caris is about as good defensively as age-24, 3rd year Evan, and worlds better offensively. It's not just about %'s, although I'll note that Evan shot better from the FT line and 3PT line. Caris got to the line more often per minute, and also fouled less, stole and blocked more and had a better AST:TO ratio.
Bottom line, I think that our FO will do the right thing. As I mentioned, he's a ROCNation guy, so I expect to see an extension this summer. Don't be shocked if it's around the number I project, and know that if it is, it's a smart, calculated risk. We're in good hands.