Nets Going Forward: Planning for Next Season
Posted: Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:56 am
This is going to be a long post, but please bear with me. So we're roughly past the midseason point of the year, and it is safe to say that the the NBA season hasn't gone the way most of us had thought. The number of injuries have been a large unfortunate part of the season, but even when players have been available, things simply haven't clicked the way we would have thought. Our hope was that we'd be able establish ourselves as a solid playoffs without KD, so that when KD would come back next year, we'd be ready to contend. So while injuries certainly have spoiled the season, what we've seen of the healthy team so far still has been far from good enough. I do want to point out that this thread isn't a knee jerk reaction thread, but a patient response based on what I've been thinking for a while now.
Last season was a great season because the team overachieved and surprised all of us, making it a great "feel good" sports story. We had hoped that players like Levert, Allen, Kurucs etc. would continue their development and improve this year. But with the possible exception of Allen, basically everyone on the roster has regressed from last year. Even for Allen, the inconsistency, and the flaws are still apparent. And while I feel like our expectations for Allen are unfairly high (he has way outperformed for a 22nd pick, especially given that he's still very young), we're trying to build a win now contender. Recent comments made by Marks, Tsai, and obviously Kyrie emphasize that mentality. Unfortunately, we don't have much room for "he's young and needs to develop" if he's going to be our starter. And Allen's weaknesses are compounded by the fact that the top Eastern teams have strong bigs that give him trouble (except Celtics). Ideally, imo Allen would be a fantastic backup C to have, but with DJ here for long-term (and a non-option to trade), Allen might have to be the sacrificial lamb going forward.
There's also an argument to be made that Dinwiddie has regressed in a way from last season, as his efficiency is way down compared to previous season (53.6% TS% vs 58% TS% last year). Obviously, I want to note that this is a bit unfair on Dinwiddie, as its primarily a result of our injury crisis, but Dinwiddie's FT% and 3pt shooting have still regressed. That being said, he is one of the best value contracts in the league, and excellent insurance for injury prone Kyrie, so I do think that he should be part of the contender core going forward. I'm not going to spend too much time talking about the others (Levert, Kurucs, etc.), because I feel like most of us are on the same page regarding their season so far. I feel like that this year has been an audition year for many of these guys to determine who fits our timeline going forward.
Anyways, takeaways from the season on roster composition so far:
1) Allen and DJ's skillsets are redundant in the sense that they are the same type of centers (rim running athletic Cs). While this is something we can live with, we would be much better off with a stretch 5 who is competent defensively. A 5 out offense with two elite scorers on the team can be unstoppable. So I suggest trading one of them, and since it can't be DJ (due to locker room influence), it's gotta be Allen who has much higher trade value anyways.
2) Both Dinwiddie and Levert together aren't great fits for this roster. With KD back next year and Kyrie healthy, we'll have too many ball dominant scorers, and while KD & Kyrie are elite players with Dinwiddie being an above average scorer, Levert has yet to prove his worth here. Levert has shown it in flashes, but there's still no consistency to him on top of being injury prone. It doesn't help that both Levert and Dinwiddie are below average shooters, which limits their off ball potential. So imo, one of Levert/Dinwiddie have to be traded for a better roster fit, and the evidence clearly points to Levert being the obvious answer here. Levert will inevitably bounce back at some point this season (provided he stays healthy), but we need consistency out of our guys.
3) The glaring need for two way players on the roster. Defense was the big question mark coming into the season, and it has been a horror show too often this season. Sure, we don't rank that awfully in defensive metrics, but none of the metrics prove us to be good on that end either. And more importantly, we've shown an inability to successfully defend any of the top teams in the league. We'll eventually figure out our offense because we have too much talent to fail on that end, so I'm not worried about that. There are very few players on this roster if any, that can be considered positive contributors on both ends. The only guy on the team who was performing like a high level 3&D guy tore his achilles.
4) Taurean Prince isn't good enough to be worth keeping. Now I want to clarify this by saying that I've repeatedly mentioned that Prince will look much better when the team is fully healthy and clicking. And I still do believe that, but even a version of Prince playing decent isn't really worth keeping, when you could use his contract to get a better piece/fit. His $14.5 mill salary is a valuable asset for a capped out team like ours, and we can get creative (with use of other assets) to pull off some interesting trades.
5) Reconsideration on our PF perception. Under Markinson, we've been frequently using SFs or undersized guys as our PFs, but it may be time to reconsider that with top teams in the league adding size or generally being big. Now I know that many expect KD to be our 4, and while I certainly expect KD to be our 4 in death lineups, I'm not sure that him being a 4 full-time is a good idea. While he has the obviously length, I'm not sure if its a good idea for a post-achilles SF to be guarding stronger PFs full-time. In addition, KD has his own preference in playing SF, and Kyrie recently also implied something ("With KD out, we have Joe playing 3").
6) There must be accountability for Kenny Atkinson and he can't be treated like an untouchable piece. I've tried to be fair to Kenny, and I thought he did a tremendous job last season getting team to where it was. Even this year, I gave him a lot of praise/credit when we had a winning stretch with Kyrie/Levert out. But the problem is that we still look dysfunctional even when we have those players back. Our performances against most of the top teams in the league have been dreadful, there is a glaring lack of effort/energy many times as we get outhustled and outworked, and we're the worst 4th quarter team in the entire league (which is unacceptable). The in-game management and adjustments have been awful way too often, and while we don't have great defensive personnel, our defensive schemes often leave me scratching my head. This is not a call to fire Kenny Atkinson, not at all, but I'm just making the point that our head coach must be held accountable for his shortcomings when they happen. And if it's not working out long-term, then we have to admit that and make changes.
Now basing off that, on to trade ideas for summer:
BKN-NOP
Nets get: Jrue Holiday, JJ Redick, Kenrich Williams
Pelicans get: Caris Levert, Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince (might need pick/another asset)
Breakdown: Nets get one of the most coveted two way players in the league with Jrue Holiday, who slots in nicely as our starting SG. He's a perfect fit for our system as a two-guard comfortable with ball handling duties, a decent scoring option, and a competent 3 pt shooter. JJ Redick, who will be 36 in the league, is still having one of his best shooting years right now. JJ and his wife love Brooklyn, owning a condo here, and we previously offered a contract to JJ years ago in free agency. JJ would be our backup SG or someone who can slot into our small ball lineup, and along with Joe Harris, our shooting would be elite in the league.
For Pelicans, they get a youngish player with potential (in Levert) who is locked up for the next 3 years (something valuable to small market teams). He can form a nice young scoring tandem with Ingram and Zion. Allen is the highest value asset from Nets end, however Pelicans already have Hayes so they might not be interested, but this is workable with a third team that will take Allen. Prince is salary filler here, but a player who fits their roster well. To top it off, Trajan Langdon (Marks' former right hand man) is GM there, so this helps in relationship aspect to facilitate trade (and player valuation).
BKN-SAC
Nets get: Dewayne Dedmon
Kings get: Taurean Prince
Breakdown: A fairly straightforward swap, a bad contract for another similar bad contract. Dedmon wants out and has been awful this year, but if he regains, he's a decent stretch 5 option with defense. For Kings, Holmes has blossomed, which makes Dedmon completely expendable for them. Kings could use a forward like Prince in place of him.
BKN-Spurs
Nets get: Rudy Gay, Derrick White
Spurs get: Taurean Prince, Rodions Kurucs, 2nd round pick
Breakdown: Nets get a player in Rudy Gay who has been converted into a full time 4 over the past few years. He's in decline, but still a pretty solid rotation player who fits the roster well, and much better suited to playing 4 than anyone else on this roster right now. The bigger asset here for the Nets is Derrick White who is a low-key solid, young 3&D guard. He's not going to be anything more than a solid rotation player, but he's a good rotation piece to have. Spurs get Prince for salary matching purposes, and Pop can make a pretty solid player out of him. Likewise with Kurucs, who fits Spurs' tradition of Euro players. Nets can throw in a 2nd round pick depending on Spurs value of White.
Moving on to FA targets in the summer, I'm not a CBA expert but from my understanding, we'll have the tax payers' MLE to work with (~6 mill). Not sure about sign & trade possibilities, since I know that it can hardcap the team. IMO, the targets must be veteran bigs who can add spacing, defense and leadership to the team. And in most of these cases, guys will have to take paycuts.
FA targets:
Marc Gasol (ideal fit)
Paul Millsap (ideal fit)
Serge Ibaka (likely way out of price range)
Aron Baynes
Markieff Morris
Marvin Williams
JaMychal Green
There are probably other names as well but these are the ones off the top of my head. We can only pick one, but Marc Gasol or Millsap are the ones I'd want the most (depending on other moves we make) as they give us a lot of qualities that we need badly. They're both also pretty old, so I can see them taking paycuts to be on a contender, even if they're already on good playoffs teams. In any case, we need to make our exception count to address major needs on our roster.
Also with the trades, those are just some of my possible suggestions, it doesn't mean that I 100% support them (with the exception of the Pelicans trade). If we want, we could also easily be in play for guys like Kevin Love or Blake Griffin as I do think that we can get them without giving up much. But I'd rather aim for lesser profile pieces to round out team depth and strengths. Anyway, this has been a long ass post as I've said a lot, but feel free to add your feedback, any FA/trade suggestions or tell me why I'm so wrong.
And for those who can't be bothered to read the full post, tl;dr-Kyrie was right.
Last season was a great season because the team overachieved and surprised all of us, making it a great "feel good" sports story. We had hoped that players like Levert, Allen, Kurucs etc. would continue their development and improve this year. But with the possible exception of Allen, basically everyone on the roster has regressed from last year. Even for Allen, the inconsistency, and the flaws are still apparent. And while I feel like our expectations for Allen are unfairly high (he has way outperformed for a 22nd pick, especially given that he's still very young), we're trying to build a win now contender. Recent comments made by Marks, Tsai, and obviously Kyrie emphasize that mentality. Unfortunately, we don't have much room for "he's young and needs to develop" if he's going to be our starter. And Allen's weaknesses are compounded by the fact that the top Eastern teams have strong bigs that give him trouble (except Celtics). Ideally, imo Allen would be a fantastic backup C to have, but with DJ here for long-term (and a non-option to trade), Allen might have to be the sacrificial lamb going forward.
There's also an argument to be made that Dinwiddie has regressed in a way from last season, as his efficiency is way down compared to previous season (53.6% TS% vs 58% TS% last year). Obviously, I want to note that this is a bit unfair on Dinwiddie, as its primarily a result of our injury crisis, but Dinwiddie's FT% and 3pt shooting have still regressed. That being said, he is one of the best value contracts in the league, and excellent insurance for injury prone Kyrie, so I do think that he should be part of the contender core going forward. I'm not going to spend too much time talking about the others (Levert, Kurucs, etc.), because I feel like most of us are on the same page regarding their season so far. I feel like that this year has been an audition year for many of these guys to determine who fits our timeline going forward.
Anyways, takeaways from the season on roster composition so far:
1) Allen and DJ's skillsets are redundant in the sense that they are the same type of centers (rim running athletic Cs). While this is something we can live with, we would be much better off with a stretch 5 who is competent defensively. A 5 out offense with two elite scorers on the team can be unstoppable. So I suggest trading one of them, and since it can't be DJ (due to locker room influence), it's gotta be Allen who has much higher trade value anyways.
2) Both Dinwiddie and Levert together aren't great fits for this roster. With KD back next year and Kyrie healthy, we'll have too many ball dominant scorers, and while KD & Kyrie are elite players with Dinwiddie being an above average scorer, Levert has yet to prove his worth here. Levert has shown it in flashes, but there's still no consistency to him on top of being injury prone. It doesn't help that both Levert and Dinwiddie are below average shooters, which limits their off ball potential. So imo, one of Levert/Dinwiddie have to be traded for a better roster fit, and the evidence clearly points to Levert being the obvious answer here. Levert will inevitably bounce back at some point this season (provided he stays healthy), but we need consistency out of our guys.
3) The glaring need for two way players on the roster. Defense was the big question mark coming into the season, and it has been a horror show too often this season. Sure, we don't rank that awfully in defensive metrics, but none of the metrics prove us to be good on that end either. And more importantly, we've shown an inability to successfully defend any of the top teams in the league. We'll eventually figure out our offense because we have too much talent to fail on that end, so I'm not worried about that. There are very few players on this roster if any, that can be considered positive contributors on both ends. The only guy on the team who was performing like a high level 3&D guy tore his achilles.
4) Taurean Prince isn't good enough to be worth keeping. Now I want to clarify this by saying that I've repeatedly mentioned that Prince will look much better when the team is fully healthy and clicking. And I still do believe that, but even a version of Prince playing decent isn't really worth keeping, when you could use his contract to get a better piece/fit. His $14.5 mill salary is a valuable asset for a capped out team like ours, and we can get creative (with use of other assets) to pull off some interesting trades.
5) Reconsideration on our PF perception. Under Markinson, we've been frequently using SFs or undersized guys as our PFs, but it may be time to reconsider that with top teams in the league adding size or generally being big. Now I know that many expect KD to be our 4, and while I certainly expect KD to be our 4 in death lineups, I'm not sure that him being a 4 full-time is a good idea. While he has the obviously length, I'm not sure if its a good idea for a post-achilles SF to be guarding stronger PFs full-time. In addition, KD has his own preference in playing SF, and Kyrie recently also implied something ("With KD out, we have Joe playing 3").
6) There must be accountability for Kenny Atkinson and he can't be treated like an untouchable piece. I've tried to be fair to Kenny, and I thought he did a tremendous job last season getting team to where it was. Even this year, I gave him a lot of praise/credit when we had a winning stretch with Kyrie/Levert out. But the problem is that we still look dysfunctional even when we have those players back. Our performances against most of the top teams in the league have been dreadful, there is a glaring lack of effort/energy many times as we get outhustled and outworked, and we're the worst 4th quarter team in the entire league (which is unacceptable). The in-game management and adjustments have been awful way too often, and while we don't have great defensive personnel, our defensive schemes often leave me scratching my head. This is not a call to fire Kenny Atkinson, not at all, but I'm just making the point that our head coach must be held accountable for his shortcomings when they happen. And if it's not working out long-term, then we have to admit that and make changes.
Now basing off that, on to trade ideas for summer:
BKN-NOP
Nets get: Jrue Holiday, JJ Redick, Kenrich Williams
Pelicans get: Caris Levert, Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince (might need pick/another asset)
Breakdown: Nets get one of the most coveted two way players in the league with Jrue Holiday, who slots in nicely as our starting SG. He's a perfect fit for our system as a two-guard comfortable with ball handling duties, a decent scoring option, and a competent 3 pt shooter. JJ Redick, who will be 36 in the league, is still having one of his best shooting years right now. JJ and his wife love Brooklyn, owning a condo here, and we previously offered a contract to JJ years ago in free agency. JJ would be our backup SG or someone who can slot into our small ball lineup, and along with Joe Harris, our shooting would be elite in the league.
For Pelicans, they get a youngish player with potential (in Levert) who is locked up for the next 3 years (something valuable to small market teams). He can form a nice young scoring tandem with Ingram and Zion. Allen is the highest value asset from Nets end, however Pelicans already have Hayes so they might not be interested, but this is workable with a third team that will take Allen. Prince is salary filler here, but a player who fits their roster well. To top it off, Trajan Langdon (Marks' former right hand man) is GM there, so this helps in relationship aspect to facilitate trade (and player valuation).
BKN-SAC
Nets get: Dewayne Dedmon
Kings get: Taurean Prince
Breakdown: A fairly straightforward swap, a bad contract for another similar bad contract. Dedmon wants out and has been awful this year, but if he regains, he's a decent stretch 5 option with defense. For Kings, Holmes has blossomed, which makes Dedmon completely expendable for them. Kings could use a forward like Prince in place of him.
BKN-Spurs
Nets get: Rudy Gay, Derrick White
Spurs get: Taurean Prince, Rodions Kurucs, 2nd round pick
Breakdown: Nets get a player in Rudy Gay who has been converted into a full time 4 over the past few years. He's in decline, but still a pretty solid rotation player who fits the roster well, and much better suited to playing 4 than anyone else on this roster right now. The bigger asset here for the Nets is Derrick White who is a low-key solid, young 3&D guard. He's not going to be anything more than a solid rotation player, but he's a good rotation piece to have. Spurs get Prince for salary matching purposes, and Pop can make a pretty solid player out of him. Likewise with Kurucs, who fits Spurs' tradition of Euro players. Nets can throw in a 2nd round pick depending on Spurs value of White.
Moving on to FA targets in the summer, I'm not a CBA expert but from my understanding, we'll have the tax payers' MLE to work with (~6 mill). Not sure about sign & trade possibilities, since I know that it can hardcap the team. IMO, the targets must be veteran bigs who can add spacing, defense and leadership to the team. And in most of these cases, guys will have to take paycuts.
FA targets:
Marc Gasol (ideal fit)
Paul Millsap (ideal fit)
Serge Ibaka (likely way out of price range)
Aron Baynes
Markieff Morris
Marvin Williams
JaMychal Green
There are probably other names as well but these are the ones off the top of my head. We can only pick one, but Marc Gasol or Millsap are the ones I'd want the most (depending on other moves we make) as they give us a lot of qualities that we need badly. They're both also pretty old, so I can see them taking paycuts to be on a contender, even if they're already on good playoffs teams. In any case, we need to make our exception count to address major needs on our roster.
Also with the trades, those are just some of my possible suggestions, it doesn't mean that I 100% support them (with the exception of the Pelicans trade). If we want, we could also easily be in play for guys like Kevin Love or Blake Griffin as I do think that we can get them without giving up much. But I'd rather aim for lesser profile pieces to round out team depth and strengths. Anyway, this has been a long ass post as I've said a lot, but feel free to add your feedback, any FA/trade suggestions or tell me why I'm so wrong.
And for those who can't be bothered to read the full post, tl;dr-Kyrie was right.