Papi_swav wrote:I don't agree with that. Din forces waaaayyyyy too many shots when he could just take the wide open 15 foot jumper. If they're giving it to you, take it. And Din doesn't even take enough shots from mid range to give a full assessment.
The small sample size on mid range shots is a valid point... but the small sample is pretty poor (25%) and the larger career sample is still really bad (34%). Taking more aggressively could lead to a higher percentage, but he would basically need to double his FG% from that range to warrant taking them
I don't see how him forcing a bad shot at the rim is better than a wide open mid range shot they're giving him.
Because he converts contested bad shots within 3 feet at a much higher rate than uncontested shots from 10-16 feet or 16-22 feet. And he has a near 100% higher FT rate on shots forced vs open midrange. it may seem to go against basic logic, but mathmatically and analytically its much better for him to force at the rim vs. take the open midrange.
This is why Din is in a slump, because defenses know what he's going to do, he's either going to force a horrible layup attempt that he will miss, then cry and complain to the refs about no foul call, we seen this every game about 10 times. Or he's going to take a bad step back shot which he is shooting worse on 3FG % than he is in the mid range. And again, Din doesn't take enough of those mid range to give a full assessment. He's shooting 32% from 16 feet-to the 3 pt line and 31% from 3 . I'm pretty sure that mid range number will be higher if he even took a couple of them a game. He's not even taking 1 mid range shot a game.
I think he slumped because he volume got too high and he had so little help around him that shots werent just heavily contested but contested by 2-3 guys. before levert came back he was surrounded by very little.
And while i agree his mid range would go up, its needs to go up a TON to warrant taking those. like even raising his midrage 10% to 42% would make it a bad shot.
This stupid analytics is killing the game. Yea I get that it's important now and they do have some good points and views, but how can u pass up a wide open free throw shot for a worse shot that's contested? Take the 2 points. Listen, I wouldn't want Prince or Kurucs taking that shot, but I know Din is capable of making that shot, and we have evidence.
because it isnt "taking the 2 points" if you cant consistently make the shot. hell look at how many FTs dinwiddie misses. why go 1-3 from midrange when you could go 1-3 with a trip to the FT line forcing it inside or 1-3 form three for an extra point?