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Which Direction Do You Choose?

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Which Deal?

Trade A: Wiggins/Wiseman
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Trade B: Covington/Shamet
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Total votes: 6

ecuhus1981
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Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#1 » by ecuhus1981 » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:45 am

Let's suspend disbelief for a moment, and pretend that standing pat and keeping the roster as-is is not an option.

We have two Hall-of-Famers on our roster, Harris as a mortal lock to re-sign, and then a presumably semi-lock list that goes:

1) Caris Levert*
2) DeAndre Jordan
3) errbody else

Everyone can't be untouchable, and we are definitely not a lock to lift a trophy in the next 3 years. We have a great opportunity, and we need to surround our core with the right complement to maximize that opportunity.

The way I see it, we can either A) add somewhat limited 3&D guys to surround our stars (a la Miami and Utah), or B) bring in elite talent, and plan that the defensive scheme will handle that end (a la Boston and Houston).

So, which way do you go? I have created two recent trades (this one and that one) that illustrate these directions. Other than the quality of the pick we send ,the outgoing packages are the same: Taurean Pricne, SPencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen, Dzanan Musa and Rodions Kurucs. In exchange, we can either get:

A) Robert Covington, Jamychal Green, Landry Shamet and David Nwaba; or

B) Andrew Wiggins, Rodney McGruder, Looney and the #2 pick (James Wiseman)

On the surface, any trade that returns the #2 pick in the draft should be the favorite. However, we know that this is a down draft year, especially in the lottery. Also, Andrew Wiggins has not been able to win or even contribute positively in his 5 seasons. Could Nash shape his fellow countryman into our missing piece? His athleticism and transition scoring make sense, but his defense, ball-handling and hustle leave a ton to be desired. Finally, James Wiseman could be an All-Star in 5 years; his combination of size, length, strength and two-way skill are that rare. The problem? He allegedly has want-to red flags, it's difficult to teach the kind of Montrezl/Bam type of desire for greatness that you need to succeed.

With the other trade, it's what-you-see-is-what-you-get, AND it's more than meets the eye. Robert Covington turned a turnstile Houston defense into the stingiest in the league. Jamychal Green hasn't fit in LA, but his Memphis days and deep stats back up the fact that he's an elite interior defender, and can track along the perimeter. Landry Shamet couldn't break the Clippers playoff rotation, which may mean that now is the perfect time to buy low. He's efficient at all 3 levels, a versatile defender and equally adept on or off the ball, a crucial element around 3 ball-dominant dudes. To close, week now the impact that a healthy David Nwaba has on our squad? When will he be healthy? I don't know, but with out depth we can afford to wait. Before his injury, he was a Marcus Smart / Luguentz Dort hybrid, except he hit his 3's!

The last detail is one that most of us are loathe to give credit: money. Trade A adds over $15mil to our '20-'21 cap number, while Trade B subtracts $12mil. You may say that Tsai is a billionaire or that it doesn't matter, but the progressive tax is no joke. We're already looking at the luxury tax before Joe's next contract, and adding more might mean selling CLV for capspace next offseason.

OK, your turn. Please vote, and explain in detail your rationale. I may defend my position, but I still want to hear yours, I enjoy the debate!
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#2 » by Prokorov » Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:10 pm

The #2 pick has zero appeal to me if a third team is not involved to send us a win-now player and take the pick for themselves. This being a weaker draft in the top 3 makes it even more critical to do so.

The Covington trade is so unrealistic it makes it moot but obviously if you can turn dinwiddie/allen into covington/Shamut you do it.
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#3 » by MrDollarBills » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:30 pm

would take Covington and Shamet in a heartbeat
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#4 » by ecuhus1981 » Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:29 pm

Prokorov wrote:The #2 pick has zero appeal to me if a third team is not involved to send us a win-now player and take the pick for themselves. This being a weaker draft in the top 3 makes it even more critical to do so.

The Covington trade is so unrealistic it makes it moot but obviously if you can turn dinwiddie/allen into covington/Shamut you do it.

Thanks for the feedback, friend.

I unstated your rationale. I'm bigger in this draft than most, and even I see that the overall value is underwhelming. You can find superstars in drafts that look weak like Giannis and Kashi. It's just a dicey proposition. You hate for your major move to be something that might not bear fruit for years if at all, BUT I think that James could contribute defensively at an elite level from day one. That alone would help us tremendously. Andrew is the wildcard. If having two dominant winners and a former legendary player as coach transforms him into his potential, we could unlock a dynasty. However, that big swing comes with a big risk. If he remains the same player, he could be a toxic asset, and clog so much cap that it requires us to pay assets for someone to absorb him for cap relief.

I'm with you on the second deal, it's not as high a ceiling as the first deal, but a MUCH higher floor for ROI. To follow the baseball metaphor, Ky and Kevin are runners on 2nd and 3rd, we don't need a big swing, we need a standing double to complement them.
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#5 » by Prokorov » Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:50 pm

ecuhus1981 wrote:
Prokorov wrote:The #2 pick has zero appeal to me if a third team is not involved to send us a win-now player and take the pick for themselves. This being a weaker draft in the top 3 makes it even more critical to do so.

The Covington trade is so unrealistic it makes it moot but obviously if you can turn dinwiddie/allen into covington/Shamut you do it.

Thanks for the feedback, friend.

I unstated your rationale. I'm bigger in this draft than most, and even I see that the overall value is underwhelming. You can find superstars in drafts that look weak like Giannis and Kashi. It's just a dicey proposition. You hate for your major move to be something that might not bear fruit for years if at all, BUT I think that James could contribute defensively at an elite level from day one. That alone would help us tremendously. Andrew is the wildcard. If having two dominant winners and a former legendary player as coach transforms him into his potential, we could unlock a dynasty. However, that big swing comes with a big risk. If he remains the same player, he could be a toxic asset, and clog so much cap that it requires us to pay assets for someone to absorb him for cap relief.

I'm with you on the second deal, it's not as high a ceiling as the first deal, but a MUCH higher floor for ROI. To follow the baseball metaphor, Ky and Kevin are runners on 2nd and 3rd, we don't need a big swing, we need a standing double to complement them.


I just think its the wrong gamble... if your gonna get #2 pick value, to me it makes more sense to swing that into a 3 team deal where you land a beal or Jrue.

The opporuntiy we have now comes once every 25 years. maybe more. guys like Durant are unicorns and landing top 3 players in their primes is tough even in the NY market...

I think the #2 pick trade is the kind of move you make when durant is 34 you have exhausted all other options and need to hope you hit on a generaitonal guy for now and the future
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#6 » by ecuhus1981 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:22 pm

I'm glad and frankly surprised to see feedback coming in favor of the fiscally responsible, defensive option. I too feel that this is the way for us to go, since we already have more than enough firepower. So often as fans, we tend to overvalue flashy scorers, when winning comes with gritty, unselfish hustle.
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#7 » by 3pt_chucker » Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:59 pm

HELL no to Wiggins/Wiseman trade. HARD pass.

Would take any trade with Covington but that's really unrealistic unless the Rockets decide to blow everything up(including getting rid of Morey)
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#8 » by ecuhus1981 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:40 pm

3pt_chucker wrote:HELL no to Wiggins/Wiseman trade. HARD pass.

Would take any trade with Covington but that's really unrealistic unless the Rockets decide to blow everything up(including getting rid of Morey)

Honestly, I've received tons of negative feedback on my Rockets trades, and HOU fans don't hate this one. They still don't know the direction of the team, but assuming their next coach isn't as big a fan of micro-ball as MDA, they recognize that this would be a sensible pivot.
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#9 » by Stone » Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:38 pm

I'll take door number two Monte......:)


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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#10 » by Prokorov » Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:50 pm

[tweet][/tweet]
ecuhus1981 wrote:
3pt_chucker wrote:HELL no to Wiggins/Wiseman trade. HARD pass.

Would take any trade with Covington but that's really unrealistic unless the Rockets decide to blow everything up(including getting rid of Morey)

Honestly, I've received tons of negative feedback on my Rockets trades, and HOU fans don't hate this one. They still don't know the direction of the team, but assuming their next coach isn't as big a fan of micro-ball as MDA, they recognize that this would be a sensible pivot.


The problem is that covington isnt some small ball piece. he is just a great role player who can play the 3 or 4 in any system. every winning team will be in on him if he's available and most teams have more to offer than us
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Re: Which Direction Do You Choose? 

Post#11 » by ecuhus1981 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:16 pm

Prokorov wrote:The problem is that covington isnt some small ball piece. he is just a great role player who can play the 3 or 4 in any system. every winning team will be in on him if he's available and most teams have more to offer than us

I agree AND disagree.

I do agree that RoCo will be in demand this offseason, and Houston has no compulsion to move him. IF you're going to move one piece form that squad, you're not getting anything worthwhile for Russell or Eric. PJ might fetch a tiny asset, but as a 35yo on an expiring contract, he's probably worth more to them by just riding out his deal. So, moving Robert at the right price makes some sense.

Now, what did MIN get for Covington at the TDL? They traded:

Robert Covington, Shabazz Napier, Jordan Bell, Keita Bates-Diop, and Noah Vonleh

for

Evan Turner, Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernanogomez, Jarred Vanderbilt, and our pick.

Remember, our pick was lottery-protected, and would turn into 2 heavily-protected 2nds if we hadn't made the postseason. At the time of the trade, Kyrie was injured (again), so the value of that pick was speculative. Evan was salary ballast, and Jarred is a low-level prospect with a non-guaranteed contract next season. The only concrete value return for MIN were Beasley and Hernanogomez, both RFA's this offseason. That's a 3-month rental of two prospects before free agency; both of them are intriguing, but neither were good enough to break through the Nuggets rotation.

Robert's value hasn't changed considerably since then. A full year of rookie-scale Jarrett before his own RFA beats both Malik and Juancho. The PHI pick has no protections; we know now that our pick is #17, but at the time of the MIN trade, the PHI pick is hand is worth more than ours in the bush. Even now, we can say that the #17 and the #19 pick are almost identical in value.

So in terms of value, how do Evan Turner and Jarred as 3-month expirings compare to the 2-year deals of Taurean and Rodions? I say about even, depending on your fit and direction as a team. It's nice for a rebuilding team like MIN to get Evan's salary off the books, he was on a monster $19mil contract and nigh unplayable. Prince's next 2 years are also a bit rich, but $12.5 in 2021 and $13mil in 2022 is not horrible. And he's actually an useful player. Kurucs is a real bargain. For a team hoping to compete like HOU, having two contributors with size signed should actually be a boon.

To sum it all up, IMO:

Allen > Hernanogomez + Beasley
Turner + Vanderbilt = Prince + Kurucs
#17* = #19

In my interpretation, Houston gets slightly more value, and way more on-court impact with this deal than Minny got for Covington just 6 months ago.
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