How Do We Stack Up?

[ecuhus1981]

I've been toying with a derivative of several player ranking formulas, to measure how teams look against one another this season. More than just a head-to-head, position based comparison, I'm looking at predicting squad greatness and ultimately playoff success as a byproduct of how good your best players are. I'm all about intangibles, but I feel that unquantifiable variables (coaching, system, chemistry etc) only swing a series that is otherwise evenly matched.

Basically, it's a weighted system. I propose that how elite your best player is determines 40% of how good you are as team. Your 2nd best player, versus everyone else's #2 regardless of position, accounts for 30%, your 3rd for 20% and your 4th for 10%. We could quibble about the percentages, but I feel that the overall idea is universal.

Where do the Brooklyn Nets stack up in this formula, you ask? I have us tied for the 4th/5th seed in the East with Boston, well behind Milwaukee, and just behind Philadelphia and Miami. At the time of the Jrue deal, I panned it as an egregious overpay. Eric gets the yips during the postseason, but overall it's not a seismic upgrade. However, the effect here is that instead of having Kris, Brook and Bledsoe as middling 2nd, 3rd and 4th options, you turn your PG into an above average 2nd banana. This turns Kris into an elite 3rd weapon and Lopez an elite 4th. It's like acquiring an ace starting pitcher, the trickle down effect improves the rest of your rotation.

Before you TL:DR me, my point is that trading for an All-NBA guy like James or Rudy would do us a ton of good. Suddenly, Kyrie is our 3rd best player, a ridiculous luxury. It may seem top heavy, but historically this matters more than having the best bench. I would like to see us push in the chips for one of them, to better match up with the Bucks and other elite teams.

How about out West according to my stacks, you say? Well, to my surprise, the Clippers edge out the Lakers for the #1 seed. This seems plausible given the typical championship lethargy, but my system didn't even account for that. Schroeder and Harrell are both impact scorers, but have a track record as questionable defenders. Beverly and Zubac aren't as skilled, but are elite in their roles as stoppers and efficient with low usage. When the superstars essentially cancel each other out, the role players matter. The other left coast oddity was that Dallas slips to the 9th seed, facing a play-in game. Luka could be MVP, but KP may never regain peak form. Like us, they are loaded with decent players 3 through 9, but none good enough to beat a really good team's 3rd option.

What do you think of this type of analysis? Is it valid in your opinion? Do you feel that this season will be an anomaly, where extreme depth will matter more than stars at the top of the lineup due to the pandemic? Is there something I've missed or haven't properly factored? Let me know! Go Brooklyn!

[MrDollarBills]

I've been toying with a derivative of several player ranking formulas, to measure how teams look against one another this season. More than just a head-to-head, position based comparison, I'm looking at predicting squad greatness and ultimately playoff success as a byproduct of how good your best players are. I'm all about intangibles, but I feel that unquantifiable variables (coaching, system, chemistry etc) only swing a series that is otherwise evenly matched.

Basically, it's a weighted system. I propose that how elite your best player is determines 40% of how good you are as team. Your 2nd best player, versus everyone else's #2 regardless of position, accounts for 30%, your 3rd for 20% and your 4th for 10%. We could quibble about the percentages, but I feel that the overall idea is universal.

Where do the Brooklyn Nets stack up in this formula, you ask? I have us tied for the 4th/5th seed in the East with Boston, well behind Milwaukee, and just behind Philadelphia and Miami. At the time of the Jrue deal, I panned it as an egregious overpay. Eric gets the yips during the postseason, but overall it's not a seismic upgrade. However, the effect here is that instead of having Kris, Brook and Bledsoe as middling 2nd, 3rd and 4th options, you turn your PG into an above average 2nd banana. This turns Kris into an elite 3rd weapon and Lopez an elite 4th. It's like acquiring an ace starting pitcher, the trickle down effect improves the rest of your rotation.

Before you TL:DR me, my point is that trading for an All-NBA guy like James or Rudy would do us a ton of good. Suddenly, Kyrie is our 3rd best player, a ridiculous luxury. It may seem top heavy, but historically this matters more than having the best bench. I would like to see us push in the chips for one of them, to better match up with the Bucks and other elite teams.

How about out West according to my stacks, you say? Well, to my surprise, the Clippers edge out the Lakers for the #1 seed. This seems plausible given the typical championship lethargy, but my system didn't even account for that. Schroeder and Harrell are both impact scorers, but have a track record as questionable defenders. Beverly and Zubac aren't as skilled, but are elite in their roles as stoppers and efficient with low usage. When the superstars essentially cancel each other out, the role players matter. The other left coast oddity was that Dallas slips to the 9th seed, facing a play-in game. Luka could be MVP, but KP may never regain peak form. Like us, they are loaded with decent players 3 through 9, but none good enough to beat a really good team's 3rd option.

What do you think of this type of analysis? Is it valid in your opinion? Do you feel that this season will be an anomaly, where extreme depth will matter more than stars at the top of the lineup due to the pandemic? Is there something I've missed or haven't properly factored? Let me know! Go Brooklyn!

I don't see how any team stacks up against our depth in the east. Health is the deciding factor that will decide if the Nets are in the finals or not.

[ecuhus1981]

^
I love the new sig.

I think that our depth will be important, too, to keep us from over-leveraging our top 2 guys. Maybe that's the blind spot in this system.

Still, I think it is informative to look at how we stack up against other elite teams. Milwaukee has the best player in the league, period. Much has been made about how his game doesn't excel in the postseason, and that's fair. Lebron, Michael and so many other greats had to retrofit their game and adapt in order to win at the highest level, and I believe Giannis will eventually as well. I love KD as much as anyone, but the reigning MVP gets the edge. At the Robin spot, Jrue vs. Kyrie is an interesting debate. Several aggregate rankings have Holiday slightly above Irving, though deep stats as well as the eye test would suggest otherwise. I'll call it for our guy, so let's say that the top 2 positions are a wash.

Who's on 3rd? This is where the separation begins. Middleton is a low level All Star, whereas our 3rd best player (take your pick) is an average starter. This delta really matters, especially with the deadlock at the top 2 spots. Similarly, their 4th best player is Lopez, an efficient scorer who can stretch the floor and provide elite rim protection. Our 4th, 5th and 6th best players put together cannot equal the impact on winning the Brook has.

This is where a trade could really help push us over the top of other elite teams.

[haosmoove]

While I agree with your approach, breaking down the roster by best, 2nd best, 3rd best, etc and assigning weights to them. We can narrow down on what those % should be, but that's besides my point.

It appears to me that you are placing too little attention on 1st and 2nd option. For example, I noticed you put Clippers over Lakers because they have better 3rd and 4th player. In my opinion, Lakers 1st and 2nd are so much better than Clippers counterpart. If Lakers get 70/70% using your weights, Clippers at max is at around 55/70%. You can rank those 4 players, and LBJ and AD will come out 1 & 2 every time. Kahwi haven't (maybe unable to?) played defense in 2 seasons.

For the same reason, I don't think you should rank teams like Miami and Boston ahead of the Nets because KD and Kyrie are clearly better than Butler/Bam or Tatum/Brown.

[MrDollarBills]

^
I love the new sig.

I think that our depth will be important, too, to keep us from over-leveraging our top 2 guys. Maybe that's the blind spot in this system.

Still, I think it is informative to look at how we stack up against other elite teams. Milwaukee has the best player in the league, period. Much has been made about how his game doesn't excel in the postseason, and that's fair. Lebron, Michael and so many other greats had to retrofit their game and adapt in order to win at the highest level, and I believe Giannis will eventually as well. I love KD as much as anyone, but the reigning MVP gets the edge. At the Robin spot, Jrue vs. Kyrie is an interesting debate. Several aggregate rankings have Holiday slightly above Irving, though deep stats as well as the eye test would suggest otherwise. I'll call it for our guy, so let's say that the top 2 positions are a wash.

Who's on 3rd? This is where the separation begins. Middleton is a low level All Star, whereas our 3rd best player (take your pick) is an average starter. This delta really matters, especially with the deadlock at the top 2 spots. Similarly, their 4th best player is Lopez, an efficient scorer who can stretch the floor and provide elite rim protection. Our 4th, 5th and 6th best players put together cannot equal the impact on winning the Brook has.

This is where a trade could really help push us over the top of other elite teams.

if Durant is 100% and works himself into mid season form, he will be superior to Giannis in my opinion. It wouldn't be close.

[Stone]

We are probably going to be a top 3 team in the east. 50-22

There are a lot of question marks. How much will Joe benefit from 7-11?. Will Big Jay take a leap forward? Will Prince give us quality minutes or will he struggle with the second unit? I could go on and on with the questions.

I think we know what the Bucks are capable of, but with us we have to remember we are adding Kevin Durant. This is going to be a different team than last year. For once things might go better than we hoped.

[MrDollarBills]

We have elite depth and multiple shot creators and floor spacers. How do we stack up? You tell me

[Prokorov]

it really depends on health and how much they want the highest seed possible. with no fans home court is less important. we may also see a bubble for the playoffs again. where homecourt doesnt exsist.

i can see anywhere from 1 to 5 seed.

IF healthy we will be in the mix to go to the finals for sure

[Papi_swav]

We look dominate so far. We have so much depth and we can beat teams in different ways. I think we're the top team of the East, screw Harden we don't need him.

[Prokorov]

We look dominate so far. We have so much depth and we can beat teams in different ways. I think we're the top team of the East, screw Harden we don't need him.

I think we can win a title without Harden. but with him i think it is SIGNIFICANTLY more likely. He makes us so much better. I mean i know we look good in PRESEASON but it gets alot tougher from here.

Like lets see what we look like when Giannis is on KD and Jrue is on Kyrie and we need to rely more heavily on levert. I know id rather have to rely on harden vs the bucks #3 defender then levert in an important 7 game series.

It is also inaccurate that we not have solid depth after a trade. Concensus is our best offer for Harden would be:

Levert
Dinwiddie
Allen
boatload of picks.

Ok so the 2 depth guys we lose are allen and Dinwiddie(Harden would replace levert and be an enormous upgrade).

We have Jordan who is about the same level as allen. so we would need a backup 5. We have a plethora of backup G types in TJ, TLC, etc. i mean we would have:

Kyrie | Harris | Harden | Durant | Jordan
TJ | Shamet | TLC| Prince | Claxton

Harden or Kyrie staggers on the second unit. Claxton is really the only spot we'd need to worry about. and in the playoffs your extending starter minutes. That team is Lebron/wade/bosh level good

[Hello Brooklyn]

You guys are way too down on the Nets.

We have the best player in the East. And in my view 2/3 best players. Yes I would still take Kyrie over Embiid/Tatum/Butler etc.

Beyond that we easily have the best depth in the NBA. We have bench players that would be playing major minutes on other contending teams.

Yes there are some defensive issues. But who in the East doesn't have major flaws?

The Bucks don't have a shot creator in the playoffs and get exposed every year.

The Celtics seem to have gotten worse.

The Heat still don't have enough star power outside of Butler.

The Sixers are relying on a guy without a jumpshot and another who is never in shape.

I don't see how we are not the favorite over all of them. The only team that worries me is if Giannis goes up another level and becomes a consistent shooter.

I think the Lakers/Clippers would be the teams that could actually beat us.

[MrDollarBills]

You guys are way too down on the Nets.

We have the best player in the East. And in my view 2/3 best players. Yes I would still take Kyrie over Embiid/Tatum/Butler etc.

Beyond that we easily have the best depth in the NBA. We have bench players that would be playing major minutes on other contending teams.

Yes there are some defensive issues. But who in the East doesn't have major flaws?

The Bucks don't have a shot creator in the playoffs and get exposed every year.

The Celtics seem to have gotten worse.

The Heat still don't have enough star power outside of Butler.

The Sixers are relying on a guy without a jumpshot and another who is never in shape.

I don't see how we are not the favorite over all of them. The only team that worries me is if Giannis goes up another level and becomes a consistent shooter.

I think the Lakers/Clippers would be the teams that could actually beat us.

This. We have elite depth, elite shooting and we are spearheaded by a top 3 player and an all NBA PG. You can't stop the Nets when KD, Kyrie, and Harris are on the floor. Dinwiddie is an elite north south driver, LeVert is one of the best 6th man in the league. We have multiple options in the front court. This is the most loaded team in the history of this franchise.

The only thing that stops the Nets from making the finals is bad health. Period.

[Papi_swav]

We look dominate so far. We have so much depth and we can beat teams in different ways. I think we're the top team of the East, screw Harden we don't need him.

I think we can win a title without Harden. but with him i think it is SIGNIFICANTLY more likely. He makes us so much better. I mean i know we look good in PRESEASON but it gets alot tougher from here.

Like lets see what we look like when Giannis is on KD and Jrue is on Kyrie and we need to rely more heavily on levert. I know id rather have to rely on harden vs the bucks #3 defender then levert in an important 7 game series.

It is also inaccurate that we not have solid depth after a trade. Concensus is our best offer for Harden would be:

Levert
Dinwiddie
Allen
boatload of picks.

Ok so the 2 depth guys we lose are allen and Dinwiddie(Harden would replace levert and be an enormous upgrade).

We have Jordan who is about the same level as allen. so we would need a backup 5. We have a plethora of backup G types in TJ, TLC, etc. i mean we would have:

Kyrie | Harris | Harden | Durant | Jordan
TJ | Shamet | TLC| Prince | Claxton

Harden or Kyrie staggers on the second unit. Claxton is really the only spot we'd need to worry about. and in the playoffs your extending starter minutes. That team is Lebron/wade/bosh level good

That second unit does not look intriguing . But I get what you're saying, because with the big 3 one of the stars will be in there with the bench unit so we would always have a star on the floor. I just love our team now as is.

I think we're better suited to beat the Bucks now, they look like our top competitors in the east. But you say Giannis will guard KD, Jrue will guard Kyrie and Harden will go off, but don't forget they also have Middleton who is a pretty solid defender as well. And I don't see Harden chasing Middleton around those screens the Bucks run. I think i rather have Levert go off on the bench unit. We also have Dinwiddie who can go off any game but can also set the table as good as almost any point guard.

We would make a better assessment after 20 games but from the looks of it, we might be better off as is.

[Prokorov]

We look dominate so far. We have so much depth and we can beat teams in different ways. I think we're the top team of the East, screw Harden we don't need him.

I think we can win a title without Harden. but with him i think it is SIGNIFICANTLY more likely. He makes us so much better. I mean i know we look good in PRESEASON but it gets alot tougher from here.

Like lets see what we look like when Giannis is on KD and Jrue is on Kyrie and we need to rely more heavily on levert. I know id rather have to rely on harden vs the bucks #3 defender then levert in an important 7 game series.

It is also inaccurate that we not have solid depth after a trade. Concensus is our best offer for Harden would be:

Levert
Dinwiddie
Allen
boatload of picks.

Ok so the 2 depth guys we lose are allen and Dinwiddie(Harden would replace levert and be an enormous upgrade).

We have Jordan who is about the same level as allen. so we would need a backup 5. We have a plethora of backup G types in TJ, TLC, etc. i mean we would have:

Kyrie | Harris | Harden | Durant | Jordan
TJ | Shamet | TLC| Prince | Claxton

Harden or Kyrie staggers on the second unit. Claxton is really the only spot we'd need to worry about. and in the playoffs your extending starter minutes. That team is Lebron/wade/bosh level good

That second unit does not look intriguing . But I get what you're saying, because with the big 3 one of the stars will be in there with the bench unit so we would always have a star on the floor. I just love our team now as is.

I think we're better suited to beat the Bucks now, they look like our top competitors in the east. But you say Giannis will guard KD, Jrue will guard Kyrie and Harden will go off, but don't forget they also have Middleton who is a pretty solid defender as well. And I don't see Harden chasing Middleton around those screens the Bucks run. I think i rather have Levert go off on the bench unit. We also have Dinwiddie who can go off any game but can also set the table as good as almost any point guard.

We would make a better assessment after 20 games but from the looks of it, we might be better off as is.

i just dont see how levert torches the bucks but james harden doesnt.

we could go 20-0 with 20 blowouts and id still want to make the deal for harden

[Papi_swav]

I think we can win a title without Harden. but with him i think it is SIGNIFICANTLY more likely. He makes us so much better. I mean i know we look good in PRESEASON but it gets alot tougher from here.

Like lets see what we look like when Giannis is on KD and Jrue is on Kyrie and we need to rely more heavily on levert. I know id rather have to rely on harden vs the bucks #3 defender then levert in an important 7 game series.

It is also inaccurate that we not have solid depth after a trade. Concensus is our best offer for Harden would be:

Levert
Dinwiddie
Allen
boatload of picks.

Ok so the 2 depth guys we lose are allen and Dinwiddie(Harden would replace levert and be an enormous upgrade).

We have Jordan who is about the same level as allen. so we would need a backup 5. We have a plethora of backup G types in TJ, TLC, etc. i mean we would have:

Kyrie | Harris | Harden | Durant | Jordan
TJ | Shamet | TLC| Prince | Claxton

Harden or Kyrie staggers on the second unit. Claxton is really the only spot we'd need to worry about. and in the playoffs your extending starter minutes. That team is Lebron/wade/bosh level good

That second unit does not look intriguing . But I get what you're saying, because with the big 3 one of the stars will be in there with the bench unit so we would always have a star on the floor. I just love our team now as is.

I think we're better suited to beat the Bucks now, they look like our top competitors in the east. But you say Giannis will guard KD, Jrue will guard Kyrie and Harden will go off, but don't forget they also have Middleton who is a pretty solid defender as well. And I don't see Harden chasing Middleton around those screens the Bucks run. I think i rather have Levert go off on the bench unit. We also have Dinwiddie who can go off any game but can also set the table as good as almost any point guard.

We would make a better assessment after 20 games but from the looks of it, we might be better off as is.

i just dont see how levert torches the bucks but james harden doesnt.

we could go 20-0 with 20 blowouts and id still want to make the deal for harden

its not that levert can and harden can't . U mention the Bucks have a defender for our top 2 guys and Harden will just feast all day but Bucks also have a decent wing defender in Middleton is my point. levert should be able to torch their bench unit. Din can also give us 20/10 on any given day. And having Allen is probably the best "backup" center in the NBA.

We'll agree to disagree for now. If we go 20-0 with 20 blowouts I would want Harden even less because that would just prove we have tremendous chemistry and we definitely don't need him. Why screw that up?

[Stone]

I thought it would be ok to bump this thread since the Harden trade and western road trip sweep.

We are now the number 2 team in the power rankings behind the Jazz.

After reading and hearing some of the pundits out there are now saying we are favorites to win it all. Some are also saying we are the most interesting team of the last ten years. I heard Perk say if we don't win it all this year we are the biggest bust of all time....lol

My thoughts.....It really seems like we caught lightning in a bottle. We have Harden, Kyrie and KD all playing at all NBA levels. The defense we were so concerned about a few weeks ago has greatly improved. On offense...gone are the days of predictable sets, now the best you do can is guess what we are going to do. I think that is why we are so interesting.

I originally said we were a top three seed in the east, right now I believe we are a top three seed in the entire league.

I don't know if this is a case of us peeking too soon or if we can notch it up even more. I know there is a lot of time between now and the finals and anything can happen. But right now I am living the dream and really enjoying this....

Anyone else care to share their thoughts?

[ecuhus1981]

Thanks for bumping!

I will attempt to not dominate the conversation. I'll just mention that my little theory seems to be playing out nicely so far this season. Having a truly elite Big 3 has catapulted our trajectory. Suddenly, our struggling role players are surging, because they operate so freely around 3 superstars who command so much gravity. Even missing 1 of 2 of them, we're still a dangerous team, which speaks to our adaptability, our resilience and our coaching. As much as I'll miss our pups, they and we are in better situations.

Also, from the games I've watched of other teams, the Clippers really do seem like they will make it out of the West. They are also the best equipped team to match up against us, with a premier stopper at each position of our guys. Dallas is struggling in the way that my model suggested they would; their role players are just a notch below their peers, and it's costing them games. You could say Luka has regressed or that the league has caught onto him, but really, with fewer weapons around him, opponents can give him their full attention. That has affected his ability more than anything, IMO.

Ok, I'm done, have at it!

[Prokorov]

I thought it would be ok to bump this thread since the Harden trade and western road trip sweep.

We are now the number 2 team in the power rankings behind the Jazz.

After reading and hearing some of the pundits out there are now saying we are favorites to win it all. Some are also saying we are the most interesting team of the last ten years. I heard Perk say if we don't win it all this year we are the biggest bust of all time....lol

My thoughts.....It really seems like we caught lightning in a bottle. We have Harden, Kyrie and KD all playing at all NBA levels. The defense we were so concerned about a few weeks ago has greatly improved. On offense...gone are the days of predictable sets, now the best you do can is guess what we are going to do. I think that is why we are so interesting.

I originally said we were a top three seed in the east, right now I believe we are a top three seed in the entire league.

I don't know if this is a case of us peeking too soon or if we can notch it up even more. I know there is a lot of time between now and the finals and anything can happen. But right now I am living the dream and really enjoying this....

Anyone else care to share their thoughts?

i dont think we have peaked. in fact, i dont think we are even at 80% of our peak yet. Just started using zone more, just started using more harden/DJ pick and roll. KD has been out for that. big 3 gaining chemistry little by little

[Prokorov]

Thanks for bumping!

I will attempt to not dominate the conversation. I'll just mention that my little theory seems to be playing out nicely so far this season. Having a truly elite Big 3 has catapulted our trajectory. Suddenly, our struggling role players are surging, because they operate so freely around 3 superstars who command so much gravity. Even missing 1 of 2 of them, we're still a dangerous team, which speaks to our adaptability, our resilience and our coaching. As much as I'll miss our pups, they and we are in better situations.

Also, from the games I've watched of other teams, the Clippers really do seem like they will make it out of the West. They are also the best equipped team to match up against us, with a premier stopper at each position of our guys. Dallas is struggling in the way that my model suggested they would; their role players are just a notch below their peers, and it's costing them games. You could say Luka has regressed or that the league has caught onto him, but really, with fewer weapons around him, opponents can give him their full attention. That has affected his ability more than anything, IMO.

Ok, I'm done, have at it!

I think the clippers are a awful matchup against us... they USUALLY win by having an elite guy to defend everyone on the opposition. problem is, no one on their team can guard harden. or durant. or kyrie. we showed 2 games now that they are incapable of doing so. first game we had KD that had no beverly. but last night we had no KD and they were full strength. beverely showed he cant come close to staying with Kyrie. Harden dominated all 3 of their top defenders. Kyrie drove past PG like he was nailed to the floor. I think that would be a short series we would dominate.

[ecuhus1981]

^
Maybe you're right. On paper, the Clips seem best prepared to slow down our attack. But through 2 games where they've had more of their team than we've had of ours, we overwhelmed them. The only thing that threw us off was a cheap shot on our Uncle Jeffy.

Still, regular season games notwithstanding, can you envision another contender that would give us a harder time in a 7-game postseason series? If so, who, and why?