RealGM

Alright, fellow Nets fans, I'm back with another (hopefully) fun thought experiment.

First of all, I know, I KNOW that reality won't turn out exactly this way. You don't construct NBA teams with only players of similar age, to deals of similar contract length. I know this. However, I thought it would be insightful to see how you want our team to attack the off-season.

Claxton, C. Johnson, Clowney, Whitehead, Wilson, K. Johnson, Lewis and our 4 1st-round picks should count toward about $78mil of the 2025-2026 salary cap. Add another $2mil for a roster hold and that gets us to the minimum of 12 spots (you have to have one if you don't have 12 players under contract). The cap is projected to be set at $155mil, so we should have about ~$75mil in capspace this summer, if we make no other moves.

IMO, there are zero outright surefire max unrestricted FA dudes on the market this summer. Butler is a Hall of Famer, but he'll be 36 before the start of next season. No other current team in the league has maximum capspace, so I don't foresee a bidding war rising to max contract levels for his next deal. Brandon Ingram can stuff the stat sheet in the right role, but he hasn't proven he can impact winning. Fred Van Vleet is a winner and not old, but he small and injury-prone. Besides, I think that Houston will pick up his team option, he's low-key their best player.

That said, our hegemonic buying power *could* exert a larger than normal force on the market, dollar for dollar. In the game of musical chairs, we have 6 players fighting for 2 chairs, and we own 2 of em. Could we land 3 players for the normal FA price of 2, since almost no one else has the money we can offer???

Here are your choices:

PRE-PRIME (21-25yo) - 4yr deals for Josh Giddey, Cam Thomas, Zaiare Williams, Santi Aldama and Day'Ron Sharpe
This is the most speculative, and as we know it take overpaying in order to force teams not to match for their restricted free agents. We could stretch our spending ability by signing Giddey and Aldama first, then going over the cap to re-sign our own RFAs. There is a very real chance that we could lock up $100mil of our capspace for a 25-win team, if nobody progresses in their development (some players don't). But, nothing ventured, nothing gained, they could all continue to blossom and become a force out East.

PRIME (26-30yo) - 3yr deals for Lonzo Ball, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Brandon Ingram, Paul Reed and Luke Kornet
Productive veterans with years of productive play ahead, this feels safe. Although, spending so much money without any hope of high-end outcomes means we would need a draft pick or a trade to become our franchise player, to break into the postseason IMO.

POST-PRIME (31-35yo) - 2yrs deals for D'Angelo Russell, Caris Levert, Khris Middleton, Julius Randle and Clint Capela
I think that the market efficiency for talent and winning contribution is here. Not sexy, but solid, and the shorter length of the deals would make trading them later more palatable, if we went star chasing.

OLD HEAD (36-40yo) - 1yr deals for Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, LeBron James, Al Horford and Brook Lopez
Hear me out! Having veterans with championship pedigree would be nice for mentoring the incoming rookies. Although old, this team could be a sneaky contender, and we would still have CJ, Nic and our lotto rookie to build for the future. Plus, 1-year deals would mean that we could re-enter the FA market in 2026, where bigger stars like De'Aaron Fox, Jaren Jackson Jr and Kristaps Porzingis would be available.

think the answer is going to be mix and match?

i'd like to get a young guy in the pre-prime group (maybe Kuminga?) and I'd like to trade for Fox if he doesn't extend in SAC as seems likely.

CamT and DLo are guys i'd consider depending on the cost. Maybe CamT ends up in a S&T for Fox?

I'm assuming Clax returns since his trade value is probably low and CamJ departs since his trade value is probably high.

flagg or bailey in draft would fit well in this scenario:

fox
dlo
kuminga
flagg / bailey
claxton

if they end up with harper or another PG in the lotto maybe that scraps the fox plan and that player/camt are the backcourt. then clowney/wilson can compete with whatever other guys they draft for that open front court spot.

id sort of think of kuminga's contract as a key salary piece to the next trade, ideally with a bunch of picks for giannis.

if they don't deal camj, then he's probably in the SF slot instead of Kuminga. totally fine with that since he's obviously stepped up a lot this year. he'd fit really well with that group.

Jonathan Kuminga is... not my favorite. However, I do think he's gettable, because Golden State is facing salary cap issues. And I really like your idea that he could become the makeweight salary matching balance for a future potential Giannis deal. Would GSW match if we offered 4yrs, $110mil? Do we want to play him that much??? I think it would take that much to make them blink.

At the PF spot, the guy I like more is Santi Aldama. And Memphis is cheaper, and they already have JJJ. I think 4yrs $90mil is enough to scare the Grizzlies into not matching, and he's got serious star potential IMO.

I agree with all of the above strategy. But right now we need to build from the bottom up and I lean towards the pre-prime players like Cam and Giddy. It gives us more flexibility. Hopefully we are scouting out Joe Harris like players that we can get on the cheap that can help us build.

I think at some point, we may be able to trade for high end talent at a discount compared to another team that has to match salary, because some organization is going to get tax/apron restriction averse.

I think Marks will absorb salary for future picks, with sights set on ‘26 and beyond free agency.

vincecarter4pres wrote:I think Marks will absorb salary for future picks, with sights set on ‘26 and beyond free agency.

I could see this in theory as an asset collection strategy, but who do you think we could absorb into capspace this summer? I feel like there are very few contracts these days, where a team is compelled to pay for its removal. The new 2nd apron kind of discouraged teams from signing guys to those deals, because it restricts so much in trades, draft picks and future signings.

The teams over the 2nd apron next season who will probably want to shed salary (potential negative asset targets):

-- Boston (Holiday???)
-- Phoenix (Beal)
-- Denver (Porter and Nnaji?)
-- New York
-- Los Angeles
-- Cleveland

Can you think of any other albatross contracts, on teams who need to lower their payroll?

ecuhus1981 wrote:

vincecarter4pres wrote:I think Marks will absorb salary for future picks, with sights set on ‘26 and beyond free agency.

I could see this in theory as an asset collection strategy, but who do you think we could absorb into capspace this summer? I feel like there are very few contracts these days, where a team is compelled to pay for its removal. The new 2nd apron kind of discouraged teams from signing guys to those deals, because it restricts so much in trades, draft picks and future signings.

The teams over the 2nd apron next season who will probably want to shed salary (potential negative asset targets):

-- Boston (Holiday???)
-- Phoenix (Beal)
-- Denver (Porter and Nnaji?)
-- New York
-- Los Angeles
-- Cleveland

Can you think of any other albatross contracts, on teams who need to lower their payroll?

There will also be teams close to the second apron who want to make trades, re-sign their own guys to long term deals, or clear enough cap to sign a FA, or complete a S&T, where we could essentially be the third team.

So it begins...Nets need to hope nothing materializes now and this becomes the sweepstakes in the offseason.

wonder if he'd be willing to come here now but embrace the tank (or at least getting load managed)?

I’d actually prefer they wait him out til FA and if he gets dealt somewhere like San An and re-ups there, so be it.

It would be foolish to abandon the rebuild this early, or even this summer depending where we windup in the draft and who we get.

Fox is a really good young player, but he can’t shoot. You don’t give up on Boston/OKC/GSW style hopes for a future for Fox as the first domino.

vincecarter4pres wrote:I’d actually prefer they wait him out til FA and if he gets dealt somewhere like San An and re-ups there, so be it.

It would be foolish to abandon the rebuild this early, or even this summer depending where we windup in the draft and who we get.

Fox is a really good young player, but he can’t shoot. You don’t give up on Boston/OKC/GSW style hopes for a future for Fox as the first domino.

and presumably if he ends up in SAS, some of their extra assets are gone, cap room gone, 1 less competitor for the next star whoever that may be. if they can't agree before deadline id be in the convo in the offseason though, especially if nets luck out and get flagg.

Netaman wrote:

vincecarter4pres wrote:I’d actually prefer they wait him out til FA and if he gets dealt somewhere like San An and re-ups there, so be it.

It would be foolish to abandon the rebuild this early, or even this summer depending where we windup in the draft and who we get.

Fox is a really good young player, but he can’t shoot. You don’t give up on Boston/OKC/GSW style hopes for a future for Fox as the first domino.

and presumably if he ends up in SAS, some of their extra assets are gone, cap room gone, 1 less competitor for the next star whoever that may be. if they can't agree before deadline id be in the convo in the offseason though, especially if nets luck out and get flagg.

I think if you get Flagg and a guy like Tre Johnson you consider it, but only if you think you have a guy like Giannis in the bag next through trade or free agency, and you’re left with your own far out future picks, and one or two of the others we have.

There shouldn’t be a rush unless it’s a superstar level player in his early prime.