RealGM

Do it?

consider it done

Can't see Seatle doing it unless they really really fall in love with DJ Augustine or how he's written . He would be a big reach at 4 but at #10 he would be a good pick .

How about Sean Williams and the #21

For the #4 and the #24 pick?

If we were sold that a guy at 4 would immediately help us. By immediately I mean by seasons end be in our starting rotation or one of the first 2 off the bench. If that is the case, I'll do it.

Who at 4 are you enamored with that you'd want to trade up?

trade them Marcus Williams/10/21 for 4/Damien Wilkens...pipe dream scenario for me. Question is it really isn't who we want, it would be up to Seattle. Are they not sold on anyone at 4 and would rather acquire picks and hope for the best? I don't know.

I would do this trade.

Maybe we can work some other picks in the fold.

#4 and #32 for 10, 21, and 40 - Get a sleeper shooter like C. Lee

or

#4 and #46/50 for 10, 21, 40 - Get a sleeper shooter like M. Kemp

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

I've been using the research above to determine the expected future production and calculate value in pick swaps.

he was able to use the data to determine the average relative value (compared to the top pick) for each pick.

For example, the 21st pick came out to a number 32%, so that CHI could expect to obtain a player with the 1st pick who is a 212% better player than DET could select with the 21stth pick (1.00/0.32 = 312%).

For the picks in question, he has determined these production values:

4 = 83%
10 = 59%
21 = 32%

Now, the knee-jerk reaction would be to simply add, and say "59% + 32% > 83, so we could get the #4 easily!" However, clearly if you had two 10 picks, you couldn't trade them for the #1, even though that total would be 118%. At a minimum, you can't play both guys with four other players on the court!

I crudely give each pick in a 2-for-1 pick deal 75% of its value.

59+32 = 91
91 x 75% = 68.25

This comes out to somewhere between the 7th and 8th pick, not enough for the 4.

^

If we were to trade Swift (#2 overall in whatever year), what should we expect back?

man that was a lot of study for someone who's not even a GM.

With the #4 pick id take Mayo. Hope he's a lot better than randolph. But guys named randolph dont have any credibility with me. I should be a GM. statistics Ph.D's are overrated. It's all about intuition. heh.

EFF wrote:man that was a lot of study for someone who's not even a GM.

With the #4 pick id take Mayo. Hope he's a lot better than randolph. But guys named randolph dont have any credibility with me. I should be a GM. statistics Ph.D's are overrated. It's all about intuition. heh.

I'm having trouble taking Mayo now with his recent off court issues. Taking guys like Sean Williams were low risk and a possible high reward at 17. Kind of like what others were thinking when thinking about Marcus Williams.

Sean Williams , #10, and #21 for Wilcox and #4

I wouldn't give up Sean for anyone we cannot get at ten.

I was just checking out Seattle's picks. They have 2 first rounders already....#4 & #24. Why trade #4 to get #10 & #21?

That will give Seattle 10, 21 & 24 in the first round.

They also have 4 second round picks 32, 46, 50 & 56.

They don't need an extra pick.....they need to sell there picks. 2 for 1 or 3 for 1.

I can't believe that Kerr gave up 2 unprotected first round picks 2008 & 2010 to Seattle just to dump Kurt Thomas's contract...........and then Seattle sells Kurt to the Spurs to take one of there 2009 first round pick.

Kurt Thomas got Seattle 3 first round picks. Who is Seattle's GM??? The guys a GENIUS!

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