Looking At The Vince Carter Trade Using Advance Statistics

SeabassP · Post #1 » by **SeabassP** » Sat Aug 1, 2009 4:57 am

I have been on an advanced statistics kick, so I decided to try my hand at my own analysis using it. What better way to learn than using a real life example. I decided to analyze the Vice Carter trade using some Trade Analysis Methods.

http://netsarescorching.com/2009/07/31/ ... de-part-1/

NetsForce · Post #2 » by **NetsForce** » Sat Aug 1, 2009 3:44 pm

Interesting I'll have to read through it later.

buckybadgerfan · Post #3 » by **buckybadgerfan** » Mon Aug 3, 2009 7:20 am

Interesting stuff SeaBassP
BUT it seems some of the values/constants used to weigh age, steals, blocks, etc... are chosen arbitrarily. And there are so many confounds that are unaccounted for which will affect player statistics such as injury, contract years, coaching/system changes, team chemistry, etc...
And yes it seems younger players do have more value in the Trade Analysis method not because they have more years of health before them as you explain BUT because the equation merely emphasizes it.
I'm sure there are experts who would have an objection to this method. It seems even that some of the most valuable players in any possible trade (Kobe, KG, Duncan, etc..) would seem to diminish drastically as compared to an Anderson or Yi.

Honestly, I just can't see any organization putting much emphasis on statistics to derive at a trade decision.

IMO, if you are running any good organization you consult your best insiders to help you understand trades not your best mathmeticians. Use of PER is still pretty limited when trying to project future performance because there are so many 'ifs' in the course of a career (ESPECIALLY A YOUNG CAREER).

SeabassP · Post #4 » by **SeabassP** » Mon Aug 3, 2009 10:11 pm

buckybadgerfan wrote:Interesting stuff SeaBassP
BUT it seems some of the values/constants used to weigh age, steals, blocks, etc... are chosen arbitrarily. And there are so many confounds that are unaccounted for which will affect player statistics such as injury, contract years, coaching/system changes, team chemistry, etc...
And yes it seems younger players do have more value in the Trade Analysis method not because they have more years of health before them as you explain BUT because the equation merely emphasizes it.
I'm sure there are experts who would have an objection to this method. It seems even that some of the most valuable players in any possible trade (Kobe, KG, Duncan, etc..) would seem to diminish drastically as compared to an Anderson or Yi.

Honestly, I just can't see any organization putting much emphasis on statistics to derive at a trade decision.

IMO, if you are running any good organization you consult your best insiders to help you understand trades not your best mathmeticians. Use of PER is still pretty limited when trying to project future performance because there are so many 'ifs' in the course of a career (ESPECIALLY A YOUNG CAREER).

I don't necessarily agree with you man because the guy who developed this method now has a job with the Nuggets doing the exact same thing (And much more complicated stuff I imagine). I agree that all decisions shouldn't be made just using statistics, but more and more they do have their place in the game and evaluating the game.