Cap Talk (WARNING: LONG POST)

[ecuhus1981]

I see and hear alot of near-truths being bandied around with regard to our 2010 capspace. I wanted to set the record straight, so that we all understand each other.

First, let's talk about the cap itself. The NBA's salary cap is derived from the league's revenue in the previous season. At one point this season, the league thought that the cap could fall from it's current number ($57.7mil) by up to $5mil. Now, it seems that ticket sales have far exceeded NBA commissioner David Stern's prediction. This led many to report that the cap may not fall, at all. BUT, one thing most didn't take into account is that many of the added tickets sales were marked down drastically by teams that have trouble getting fans into their arena (sound familiar?). SO, I still believe that the cap will fall somewhat. In short, I use the working number of $56mil as a projected '10-'11 salary cap.

Now, who do we have on our books for the 2010-2011 season?

Devin Harris - $8,981,000
Yi Jianlian - $4,050,500
Brook Lopez - $2,413,320
Terrence Williams - $2,214,480
Courtney Lee - $1,352,640

Kris Humphries has a $3.2mil player option for the '10-'11 season, that he all but certainly will NOT exercise, since he won't garner that type of value on the open market. Keyon Dooling has a partially guaranteed contract for $3.828mil, which can be bought out for $500K. Let's assume that the Nets buy him out. Chris Douglas-Roberts seems to be the team's pariah at the moment, and the Nets have a full team option for him next year. They could decline the option and save the capspace; but $854,389 is a bargain for his talent level, and he's knows our DDM system in and out from his days under Calipari. His attitude will be much healthier for the team next season, assuming we can add big-time FAs and are in contending mode.

Next, we have the salaries of our draft picks. Assuming the Nets finish the season with the worst record in the league, we have a 25% chance of landing the #1 pick. For argument's sake, let's assume we DON'T (there is a 75% chance we won't after all). At worst, we'll get the #4 pick, but let's say we get the #2. The '10-'11 salary for the 2nd pick in the 2010 draft will be $3,835,600. We also have the Dallas pick, which should land in the 18-25 range. Let's call it the 20th pick, which is due $1,134,500. The salary of 1st-round picks DO count toward a team's salary cap, even if they are unsigned.

Finally, we have roster holds. The NBA assesses a $500K roster hold for every player on your team under 12. So, with 6 players under contract (including CDR), and 2 1sts, we would be assessed $1.5mil. Our grand total salary cap number will therefore be $26,866,329, so we will be more than $29mil under the cap.

The main reason we're discussing capspace is because the Nets would like to sign an impact FA or two. The maximum salary of a free agent depends upon how long that player had been in the league (or their current salary, but that does not come into play here). For players who have been in the league a minimum of 7 years (like Wade, James and Bosh), their max salary starts at 30% of the cap, which, since we're using $56mil as our example, would be $16.8mil. If we are fortunate enough to sign a max FA, it would also remove one of the roster holds, so the effective addition to our capspace would be $16.3mil, leaving us with almost $13mil in remaining capspace. We would not be able to afford a 2nd max contract player unless we executed some VERY tricky draft-day or summer deals. Many teams this summer will be hunting for the same FAs as us, and they will charge a pretty penny for giving us their capspace (see the NYK-HOU-SAC deal).

As a side note, players who have been in the league LESS than 7 years have a maximum salary of 25% of the cap, which would be $14mil. David Lee and Rudy Gay are really the only players that would even remotely have a chance to receive this sort of deal; but more than likely, they'll get deals starting in the $9-11mil range.

Let's not forget that we can do more with our capspace than sign FAs. In fact, signing non-superstars to FA contracts is often the least efficient use of capspace. Usually, there is at least one team in the league that is desperate to move their star for cap relief, and a TPE trade (where we send out either nothing or much less than the salary we absorb) is one of the most effective ways for teams to immediately shed payroll. Think of the Kurt Thomas deal: Phoenix gave Oklahoma City 2 1st-round draft picks, just to absorb KT's one-year, $8mil deal. Would Utah, another team in dire financial straits, give us AK47 and their NYK 1st for T-Will and Humphries??? Would the Wizards trade Gilbert Arenas and their 1st for Devin??? Guys like David West, Al Jefferson, Marvin Williams, Andris Biedrins, Andre Iguodala and other may be available this offseason, as well.

But enough of my thoughts; what are yours?

[VCRJKidd15]

idc if we only sign one max just sign Chris Bosh(max) and Joe Johnson(non max) and then ray allen as the 6th man and bam boom coo coo cachoo

[ecuhus1981]

^

Boy, if we could do that, we'd be set. I don't see signing Allen as a legit possibility, but Bosh and Johsnon or Gay would suit me fine, IF we can't get Wade or LeTravalier.

Add ANY of the top 4 prospects in this year's draft, and you have a team that overtakes Portland as the best young core, and possibly a top-4 team in the league. We'd at least give Orlando fits, if not bounce them from the playoffs. Wherever Wade and/or James land would be the real X-factor.

It's always darkest before the dawn, guys...

[jerseyjac]

Dont get me wrong I want this team to go after everyone and anyone...Reality says:

Bosh wants to be the #1 option on a team that has their franchise defined, not a team who is trying to define what their future will be...see the Knicks as a good Plan A...

Wade stays home, maybe gets Bosh to join him there...(Plan B-osh)

LJ goes nowhere, pending 2010 playoffs, but if he actually gets an itch...see the Knicks...

I'm almost willing to bet the big 3 are not landing on the Nets, but I am not a betting man...there is no use in hope here, just a lot of teams ahead of us...WHY not the Nets, why not Brooklyn? Because we are the Nets...marketing is everything and we're just not there yet...

Its a crap shoot and leftovers from there for us...the Draft will give huge insight to what the Nets have up their sleeves...

I have us at 27 million max right now...29 is nice...

So ecuhus, why couldnt this post go here: The Truth About 2010 (Part II)

[jerseyjac]

and btw, I believe NF has us at 28.3...see spreadsheet *updated 2/15/10

[NJ To BK]

I really think the hardest part will get somebody to sign for us.

[Rockice_8]

A couple of things about that post. Didn't you mean Hump would accept his QO because nobody is going to give him 3 mil. Also I do think 56 mil is a little high a safer assumption would be like 53 mil. With that said a max would be around 16 mil. Using your numbers we have about 30 mil in salary next year (that is a rounded number) with Dooling being bought out, 3 picks, and 3 cap holds, leaving us with about 23 mil in capspace. That is a worst case senario. One max at 16 and 7 mil remaining to fill out the roster 5 spots left. Split the 7 mil on 2 good veterans and the last three spots can be for the minimum.

In order to have a shot at a max guy though we need to land Wall and if we do then Harris is expendable which means we could get more cap room. If no Wall then no max and we can get two 2nd teir guys then (Lee/Gay) so alot of things can change still.

Here's my ultimate fantasy team: We Draft Wall, dump Harris/Lee for the Griz pick and an expiring, package the two 1st's and move up a couple of spots and draft Henry, dumping Harris and Lee should give us enough room for 2 max guys and sign LBJ and Bosh. Leaving us with

Wall
Henry
LBJ
Bosh
Lopez

Bench
2nd rounder get a combo guard (Lucas/Collins), T.Will, CDR, Yi, Hump

Ok now back to something a little more realistic

Harris
Turner
Gay
D. Lee
Lopez

Not bad though

Ok and to whats proabably really going to happen

Harris
Lee
Gay
Favors
Lopez

[BigWil17]

My prediction is that our cap space will only be used as a threat. I believe we're more likely to do a sign and trade for a max player rather than an outright signing. This is why I'm happy we didn't try to dump absolutely everyone to have space for two max contracts. We're likely going to need the various assets (picks, players) to work the S&T with the Cavs.

[Jersey Generals]

The Cavs would never, ever trade Lebron James. They would let him walk before that happened.

[BigWil17]

If Lebron told them, "I'm definitely signing with "x" team." The Cavs would be silly not to get what they could from the nets. Unless letting Lebron go gives them Cap space to do something else they want to. It's all dependent upon Lebron (or whichever max free agent) agreeing in principle with a team.

I wonder what the stats are for max / close to max guys that changed teams (in the salary cap era).

Do they usually outright sign with the new team? Or does the original team eventually agree to a S&T. I suppose I'll have to look up free agent signings over the last number of years. All I can think of right now is Indiana working a S&T for someone, Rashard Lewis, and Steve Nash. I'll look for the details later, as I'm currently at work.

[Jersey Generals]

It wouldn't be silly, it's all about business. It's easier to make Lebron the bad guy by letting him walk, than it would be to take the maelstrom of discontent they'd get for "trading away" Lebron James.