ImageImageImage

A small positive

Moderator: Crowned

Mike Hunt
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,769
And1: 37
Joined: Apr 11, 2004
Location: Ottawa, Canada

Re: A small positive 

Post#21 » by Mike Hunt » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:03 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:There's a couple issues with your layout though.

First of all, part of Burke's job is to make this team money and to build a winning culture. He has stated any year we don't make the playoffs is a failure. None of these things are accomplished with the biggest "tank" plan, which would've been to keep both our picks and not sign any free agents, then get a bottom 3 pick and go on our way more next year.

Secondly there is no saying a Kessel like deal would be available next summer. Remember Kessel had told the Bruins he wanted to sign somewhere else, which lowered his value. And clearly he chose the Leafs to do it with.

If we were a bottom 3 team this year... getting 2 major UFAs wouldn't help us much because we'd still be 3-4 years away from doing anything with the difference in readyness between Kessel and the new guy. Remember UFAs are old. Young RFAs like Kessel who can fit into our youth core cost a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to pry away

On a further note... UFAs are more attracted to better teams. Who do you think Kovalchuk would be more likely to sign with... a Leafs team who just made a 6th seed, or a Leafs team who tanked their way to a top 3 pick?

Either way the answer is the same... Burke is an anti tank GM... he wants to make the playoffs as fast as he can. Fans are always clamouring for rebuilding and tanking for 5 years straight... but something tells me if we didn't make the playoffs until 2015 people wouldn't be around much to exclaim YES!!! ... people have short patience. This team has already missed the playoffs for 4 years... it doesn't need to run that streak to 10 so we can hope to get the next Ovechkin

We're on the right path... Schenn, Kadri, Kessel are excellent core pieces... Burke and Wilson are great GMs... we have a lot of capspace next year... and this team will figure it out, once they slow down the game and start playing more physical. So I would just have patience... I like where the Leafs are going... even if they lost a draft pick in the process

The problem in pretty much every argument you made in this post is that you're treating the Leafs like any other franchise. They're not. They don't have to make the playoffs to make money, almost every other team does. Yes, making the playoffs means more money for mlse, but the team was in a very special position this year where the media and fans were pretty much willing to give them a break, and telling them it was ok if they didn't make the playoffs. Instead of seizing that rare opportunity, the team seemed to almost make panic driven moves this off-season, in an effort to make the playoffs. The thing about those types of moves is that the reward is much smaller than the risk it costs.
Marmoset
Veteran
Posts: 2,538
And1: 563
Joined: Nov 17, 2003
 

Re: A small positive 

Post#22 » by Marmoset » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:35 pm

The other part about "tanking" or rebuilding is that the idea is to suffer some pain for a few years while building a base that will be competitive for many years. The short term-view of building a team just to get in the playoffs is just that - short-term. The quick fix approach can get you in the playoffs, but it's rebuilding and patience that gets you a Stanley Cup. Very few teams have taken the short route to being a Stanley Cup contender, and in the current salary cap era it's almost impossible.

Also,
Fans are always clamouring for rebuilding and tanking for 5 years straight ..................... people have short patience.


This never used to be the case. The reason so many fans want to see this is because they're tired of the quick fix plan. Especially the fans older than me who can remember every season since 1967. In this case it's Brian Burke who has shown a lack of patience, not the fans. He is the one who's gone for the quick fix move of giving up the future for Kessel rather than taking a building approach.
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,544
And1: 16,336
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: A small positive 

Post#23 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:52 am

Did Detroit and New Jersey tank for all those titles... I think not. What about Boston who was 1st in the Eastern conference last year... no.

The only recent Cup winner who clearly TANKED their way to a title was the Penguins. But even with them, they got Crosby in the lockout draft... so that was more pure luck than tanking really

As I said before... Burke has taken the Boston model of rebuilding, which took them from horrible in 06 to 1st in the East in 09 with very little draft additions. And again... Kessel is easily worth this year's draft pick, so really at worst, we risked our 2011 pick and lost it. Our future is not sabotaged and hopeless because of a single wasted draft pick. It's the exact equivalent of just drafting a bust that year. Boo hoo. **** happens.
Liberate The Zoomers
Mike Hunt
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,769
And1: 37
Joined: Apr 11, 2004
Location: Ottawa, Canada

Re: A small positive 

Post#24 » by Mike Hunt » Wed Oct 21, 2009 3:29 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:As I said before... Burke has taken the Boston model of rebuilding, which took them from horrible in 06 to 1st in the East in 09 with very little draft additions. And again... Kessel is easily worth this year's draft pick, so really at worst, we risked our 2011 pick and lost it. Our future is not sabotaged and hopeless because of a single wasted draft pick. It's the exact equivalent of just drafting a bust that year. Boo hoo. **** happens.


Why is Phil Kessel "easily worth" this year's pick? I keep hearing this argument but, it ultimately depends on where that pick falls. I'm sorry, but despite his "established" (really only one good year so far) NHL production, I can't think of many/any teams who'd trade the first overall pick in any draft for him. I'm not sure I know of many that'd even trade a top-3 pick for him, let alone potentially two of them (and a second).
Marmoset
Veteran
Posts: 2,538
And1: 563
Joined: Nov 17, 2003
 

Re: A small positive 

Post#25 » by Marmoset » Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:39 am

Dr Mufasa wrote:Did Detroit and New Jersey tank for all those titles... I think not. What about Boston who was 1st in the Eastern conference last year... no.

The only recent Cup winner who clearly TANKED their way to a title was the Penguins. But even with them, they got Crosby in the lockout draft... so that was more pure luck than tanking really


Actually, you're very wrong about that. New Jersey drafted Kirk Muller and Brendan Shanahan with top 5 picks in back to back years (late 80s), and also got a guy named Scott Niedermayer with the 3rd overall pick which happened to come from: your Toronto Maple Leafs. Not to mention another 1st rounder in 1990 where they took Martin Brodeur. Detroit had a #1 overall pick in the 1980s that was used to pick Steve Yzerman (among other players). These players built the foundation for those teams to be competitors and win Cups. They've been able to maintain it since then without the benefit of the high draft picks, but they needed those picks to start out. The Leafs don't have this foundation.

I'll give you Boston - sort of. They haven't had a string of high picks or one pick to land a franchise player. But they also didn't trade away most of their picks either. They've done well drafting lower in the order with guys such as Lucic, but the Leafs can't do that either (at least in first round) because the picks are gone entirely.

As for recent cup winners:
Carolina - Eric Staal, top 5. Cam Ward, 1st rounder, drafted and developed Cole.
Tampa - Lecavailier #1 overall, developed and drafted Boyle, Richards.
Anaheim - drafted Perry, Getzlaf with first rounders, Bobby Ryan #2 overall, several other draft picks in their system.

In addition to the two first rounders, Burke also traded a 2nd rounder, and traded a 3rd in another deal. If they trade their mid round picks as well, they'll miss out on some good players there too.

Why is Phil Kessel "easily worth" this year's pick?


I agree with your post. Is Kessel worth a #1 overall pick in ANY draft. Not based on what he has shown so far in the NHL. If he is, why didn't he just go #1 in the first place?

Mufasa, it's always possible that you and Burke will be proven right, but history is not on your side in this argument. It's true that there are no guarantees in the draft, but if you have lots of high picks you're going to get some very good players unless you're just very unlucky, or poor at scouting and developing players.
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,544
And1: 16,336
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: A small positive 

Post#26 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:55 am

I didnt say teams didnt build through the draft... dont forget we ourselves have drafted Schenn, Kadri, Bozak, etc. Just that they didnt intentionally fail and make themselves as crappy as possible just to get higher picks

Would you trade Kessel for Evander Kane or Brayden Schenn? Because thats the level of player it looks like well be set up for if we kept this year. If you say yes... wow, talk about being in love with the mystery box over the boat. It could be anything... it could even be a boat, you know how much weve wanted one of those!

The chances of drafting a first line player is rather small once you get past the 1st or 2nd overall picks, which we likely wont be. Right now in our core we have

Kessel - 1st line sniper
Kadri - Likely 2nd line center, maybe 1st
Schenn - Top 4 dman, maybe top 2

Thats a good core going forward. We can fill the rest of the holes with FA, trades, etc. This isnt basketball where you need a Lebron generational player to win
Liberate The Zoomers
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,544
And1: 16,336
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: A small positive 

Post#27 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:57 am

Ill say it for the 3rd time... if we got a top 5 pick this year, having it turn into a definite 1st line player like Kessell would be a major success. If youd rather take your chances that the pick may be an omgz Crosby or Ovechkin, then go ahead, but youre wrong. So really everyone is crying over losing an extra pick next year and a 2nd... whatever

Our draft does not end with those two players btw... Kaberle will probably get us a mid first round pick... we have a bunch of 2nds, 3rds, etc. still. We will probably deal Stajan when we can. And in 2012 well still be young and making draft picks, just more in the middle range which are better in hockey than in bball.
Liberate The Zoomers
Marmoset
Veteran
Posts: 2,538
And1: 563
Joined: Nov 17, 2003
 

Re: A small positive 

Post#28 » by Marmoset » Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:44 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:Would you trade Kessel for Evander Kane or Brayden Schenn? Because thats the level of player it looks like well be set up for if we kept this year. If you say yes... wow, talk about being in love with the mystery box over the boat. It could be anything... it could even be a boat, you know how much weve wanted one of those!


For Kane I probably make the deal - he's a very good prospect who is already looking very good. For B.Schenn, no way. I thought he was overrated and should have been picked closer to 10, not 5.

But the trade wouldn't be Kessel straight up for Kane - it would be Kessel + 1st + 2nd for Kessel. If Atlanta offered that for Kessel I would do it in a second.

Our draft does not end with those two players btw... Kaberle will probably get us a mid first round pick... we have a bunch of 2nds, 3rds, etc. still. We will probably deal Stajan when we can. And in 2012 well still be young and making draft picks, just more in the middle range which are better in hockey than in bball.


I just pointed out in my last post that we DON'T have a bunch of 2nds and 3rds because half of them have already been traded away over the next 2 years.

Anyway, I think this argument has run its course. We can check back in 3 years and see which philosophy was right.
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,544
And1: 16,336
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: A small positive 

Post#29 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:36 pm

Honestly... youre underrating what we have in Kessel if youd deal Kane for him. Kane looks good, but unless hes going to be a 90 100 ppg superstar, he's not worth the established Kessel, who is a 40goal scorer
Liberate The Zoomers
User avatar
McFurious1
Head Coach
Posts: 7,376
And1: 867
Joined: Jan 21, 2006

Re: A small positive 

Post#30 » by McFurious1 » Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:25 pm

Burke broke the golden rule of rebuilding never trade your draft picks. You hold on to them like they were your 1st born. The leafs were **** last year so I'm not understanding how all of a sudden Colton Orr made them a playoff team. It's going to be a long season leaf fans, and Burke didn't make it any easier for you. The thing with bad teams as fans you always can say hey at least we'll have a high draft pick, but you can't even say that with this team for the next 2 years.

Way to go Burkie doing a hell of a job.
Mike Hunt
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,769
And1: 37
Joined: Apr 11, 2004
Location: Ottawa, Canada

Re: A small positive 

Post#31 » by Mike Hunt » Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:51 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:Ill say it for the 3rd time... if we got a top 5 pick this year, having it turn into a definite 1st line player like Kessell would be a major success. If youd rather take your chances that the pick may be an omgz Crosby or Ovechkin, then go ahead, but youre wrong. So really everyone is crying over losing an extra pick next year and a 2nd... whatever


The problem is that a GM, especially an elite GM, should never share this opinion of their ability to draft (and in this case, it looks like Brian Burke did). A great GM should think he and his scouting staff are getting a player equal or better to the draft position that he's picking from.

Cliff Fletcher was a classic example of this in the 90's when he had his infamous "draft shmaft" quote. Then, upon his return, he justified trading a 3rd rounder for Jamal Mayers by saying something like: "Well, most third rounders don't even make it into the league". While that statement is actually true, as a fan (or if I was a player or GM), I want my GM to think that, unlike all of the other lesser GMs in the league who'll miss on their guys in the 3rd round, he's going to uncover a gem with the pick.

The sad thing is, Brian Burke has shown great confidence this year. Unfortunately, it's been misdirected towards his team's ability to compete for a playoff spot.
bryant08
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 5,969
And1: 27
Joined: Jul 25, 2006
Contact:
       

Re: A small positive 

Post#32 » by bryant08 » Mon Oct 26, 2009 2:08 am

Dr Mufasa wrote:I didnt say teams didnt build through the draft... dont forget we ourselves have drafted Schenn, Kadri, Bozak, etc. Just that they didnt intentionally fail and make themselves as crappy as possible just to get higher picks


Never drafted Bozak, signed him out of college. In terms of the Evander Kane argument, Kessel no doubt.
User avatar
The Duke
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 15,798
And1: 3,453
Joined: Jul 18, 2003
Location: Da Beaches

Re: A small positive 

Post#33 » by The Duke » Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:34 pm

The funny thing is, even if Kessel comes and scores 30 goals (I'm predicted about 25goals since he is coming back from injury and also his linemates are not stellar) its still a bad trade for Toronto. Burke and other people who are using the logic of "I'd give up the picks for Kessel" are not using reason. This team has soo much holes that need filling more important then aquiring a Kessel for draft picks (if your talking about seriously going for playoffs)... The Kessel deal is a "final move" when you have everything else, yet the Leafs dont have anything close to everything else.

If Toronto is smart once they do win a couple games [whenever that happens] (atlast still with a poor record), they should move Kabrele. His trade value is going down everyday attached to the Leafs. The argument of the Leafs being even worse with Kabrele would be true but that doesnt matter, cuz the Leafs are still giving away a top 10 pick this regardless if Kabrele is on the team, off the team or injuried.

Personally, since I know the Leafs are primed for a Top 10 pick that they are giving away to Boston no matter what they do... I am hopeing they LOSE games and give an amazing player to Boston. Maybe, just maybe, it will take another horrible trade outcome like that to change the way MLSE does business. (but I have my doubts)

Return to Toronto Maple Leafs