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Leiweke going to work early for this off-season

This is definitely a gamble, but we cant be that much worse than we are now.

Bob McCown strongly believes that in naming Shanahan to be the President of HOCKEY OPERATIONS and not just Leafs. That distinction may indicate that Shanahan is likely to be the successor of Tim Leiweke as CEO of MLSE. He believes that Leiweke already regrets being here in Toronto as opposed to Los Angeles and is already looking for a way out, he and his family doesent want to be here. Supposedly Shanahan is going to be the next guy. Apparently the Media still thinks that Tim Leiweke is one cocky American SOB who jinxed the Leafs and want him gone away from our humble Canadianess.

Why do I think this speculation is bizarre and even if it did happened like that, you might as well relocate the Raptors and TFC to the USA.

I doubt Leweike's planning an exit just because his wife didn't like the cold weather. Too much money and opportunity to pass up.

This move was to deflect heat off Leweike for re-upping Nonis for 5 years for no reason. He now has a buffer.

Bankai wrote:Bob McCown strongly believes that in naming Shanahan to be the President of HOCKEY OPERATIONS and not just Leafs. That distinction may indicate that Shanahan is likely to be the successor of Tim Leiweke as CEO of MLSE. He believes that Leiweke already regrets being here in Toronto as opposed to Los Angeles and is already looking for a way out, he and his family doesent want to be here. Supposedly Shanahan is going to be the next guy. Apparently the Media still thinks that Tim Leiweke is one cocky American SOB who jinxed the Leafs and want him gone away from our humble Canadianess.

Why do I think this speculation is bizarre and even if it did happened like that, you might as well relocate the Raptors and TFC to the USA.

This makes no sense because MLSE finally has a guy willing to go out and make things happen and they're gonna let him go cause the media is butthurt about his delivery or attitude. Heck, him jinxing the Leafs actually might have been a good thing cause Nonis has effed up the cap and that team never really had a ton of high end potential.

I can understand Lieweke missing being in LA or his family wanting to be back but I doubt this has anything beyond TL looking for a name to oversee the hockey team and bringing in a name to save face for the short term. I'm betting Carlyle is done and I'm hoping he brought in Shanahan as cover for firing Nonis too (but I doubt Nonis is gone that soon).

Seems like just another pile of money at another big name to win the paper and pretend they are doing all they can by getting a star name, rather than the boring task of building something right. Tims is already going around saying he fixed soccer and the Raptors.

He even said on Strombo that they found Kyle Lowry. In things that have no cap, like soccer, and exec hiring, he can get MLSE money and spend it out spend other teams.

This is weird. I figure he will eventually take over for Nonis. Not anytime soon though.

Adrian_05 wrote:This is weird. I figure he will eventually take over for Nonis. Not anytime soon though.

I honestly don't find it that weird. I find it weird that TL gave Nonis that extension last year but there were flaws even last year and this year we continued to see it. TL is a quick decision maker and the one thing he recognizes is that to win in any league, you need truly elite upper management and elite talent.

He probably sees what transpires, gets a name for President, they fire Carlyle, keep Nonis and give him a shot to fix this, if it doesn't work Shanny's in place to watch and observe and act quickly next year.

whysoserious wrote:

Adrian_05 wrote:This is weird. I figure he will eventually take over for Nonis. Not anytime soon though.

I honestly don't find it that weird. I find it weird that TL gave Nonis that extension last year but there were flaws even last year and this year we continued to see it. TL is a quick decision maker and the one thing he recognizes is that to win in any league, you need truly elite upper management and elite talent.

He probably sees what transpires, gets a name for President, they fire Carlyle, keep Nonis and give him a shot to fix this, if it doesn't work Shanny's in place to watch and observe and act quickly next year.

I would agree that giving Nonis a 5 year extension was weird, because Nonis wasnt even the GM at the time. But I heard rumours that he did a lot work on trades, like the Phaneuf one. We'll see if it was smart or not in the offseason.

There are obviously very good parts on this team, and Nonis has pretty much brought everyone in himself. There's also something pretty clearly missing, which is why these collapses keep happening. Shanahan might be the guy to figure it out, but I see the move as a shield for Leweike so that the media doesn't jump all over him for extending Nonis. It's a free pass to keep the fans and media patient, almost the same as hiring a new GM. We suddenly get to hope that Shanahan knows what's up. That might give Nonis enough time and humility to figure out where he went wrong. I'm predicting Carlyle gets dusted within a week and a few extra Bolland-types make it onto the team next year.

It's a big name but I think TL is smart enough to recognize the Leafs have to do more than win on paper. They're getting someone to lead who knows the ins and outs of hockey as well as the NHL. Maybe I'm foolish in believing TL wants to bring the cup to Toronto, but if he does there's going to be a statue of the guy outside of the ACC.

Shanny could be an absolute fail in this position but I think it's a smart move to bring in someone like him. TL's strengths seems to be that he puts good people in leadership positions (Ujuri and Tim B.) and then gives them the support and does what he can to aid them. TL isn't a hockey guy and he shouldn't be making any hockey related decisions.

I don't care how many people MLSE add to their sr. mgmt as long as it results in winning. If they're spending money, I at least feel like they're making an effort.

I never really put much value into length of contracts for GMs or coaches. It doesn't provide any security and in the end only provides the individual with more money in their pocket. I don't think a franchise would retain a person longer if they felt they couldn't do the job. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see how the fact the Nonis was extended last year has any bearing whether or not he will be retained. It was a dumb business decision but I don't think that has any bearing on the team moving forward. It's now Shanny's decision to keep or cut loose Nonis and I hope it's the latter.

I'm really interested to see what Shannahan does. He's in a brand new role w/ zero experience and I would think he might like the comfort of having Nonis around. Or is he going to be aggressive and bring in sweeping changes b/c it's not hard to recognize the excess fat this organization carries around with them.

It's mostly that Leweike extended Nonis not too long ago without even needing to, which will lead to the change. Bringing in Shanahan essentially gives him a better boss than Leweike himself, which is why I like the change. I really don't think the Leafs are in shambles, it's just typical media overreaction. They played a style that wasn't conducive to consistency, but they also had enough talent to flaunt that style for greater parts of the season. Get a new coach in here and see where it goes. Don't rely on Dion as a horse as much. We're back in the playoffs. Clarkson will just be a really expensive third liner, but put him back in the cycle and he'll be more useful.

Shanahan's first act was to fire all the assistant coaches and then hide from the media backlash. Off to a good start...

Screw you Shanahan for giving me hope that you were any different from the rest of these idiots. Unbelievable.

Now Dreger is saying players will be held accountable (but the head coach and GM aren't!?!?!), he brought up Kadri and Gardiner as likely on the trade block. Not only have they destroyed 2015, they're going to massively damage the franchises future by dealing young guys who actually drive possession. I hate this team so much.

Let's wait and see what else happens. I think firing the coach and expecting different results with the same players is what this franchise has always done in the past with Wilson being the most recent. It's the same problems that plagued the team [core] w/ Wilson and now with Carlyle. These players have yet to put a full season together. If the message that's being sent is that you either shape up or ship out, I'm completely fine with that.

This franchise has never held it's players accountable and that'd be positive change in my mind if that's one of the changes that comes in. I'm sick of the same excuses from these players. I'm sure it's somewhat documented in this forum that I think they have to change up their players. I also wanted Nonis and Carlyle gone but I can understand the reasoning behind the decisions of retaining them. It wasn't a quick decision to retain/extend Carlyle and I think they looked at other options but guessing they came to conclusion that no one has a better pedigree. At this point Shanny hasn't had the opportunity to assess the team during the season. If he wants to see them 'in action' and assess the situation from that point of view, I'm cool with that too. This franchise is known for knee jerk reactions and taking time to assess the situation properly I think will go a long way.

Then add in the fact that Babcock has one year left on his contract and has basically said he's not returning to Detroit. If there is one coach in the NHL I'd want, it's Babcock. Give Carlyle another year, and if he doesn't show growth, then can the turd and throw a bunch of money at Babcock.

RE: Kadri and Gardiner, I think it depends what the return is. Are they getting draft picks, vets, similar prospects [Schenn for JVR]? I'm not sold on either of them but would be looking to deal other players on this roster before them. But again, depends on the return and to a degree, how much they want resign. Bernier and Reilly are the only untouchables on this team in my mind and to pry away JVR and Kessel a team will have to overpay. Everyone should be available for the right price. [EDIT: I should add Gardiner is just a notch below the JVR/Kessel level for me. He had an up and down season last year but felt he made some positive strides in the end. I'm still weary about his defensive ability especially in the defensive zone and I don't think he's made much improvement in his NHL career in that respect and that's one of the most important skills I think defenceman should have].

I think this core is flawed and it'd be better for this franchise to take a step back or two back and reload somewhat. I don't think a coaching change is going to make this core stanley cup contenders. I see parallels with how Masai handled the Raps [assess the situation first hand], except I don't expect the Leafs to turn it around. I expect them to be the same old team and Shanny to start selling off what he can during the season. Tank for next year's draft which seems to have quite a bit of high talent.

I'll try to keep this as succinct as possible.

There is a good argument that this Leafs team was the worst defensive team of the modern era. They allowed 36 shots per game. That's 2945 shots this year, which is the most EVER in a 82 game season. Here's the proof.

So this isn't just your normal bad year. This was a historic level of futility in terms of preventing shots against. There are two possibilities. Either the Leafs roster is the worst collection of defensive players ever, or they had terrible coaching. I find the latter far, far more likely.

Carlyle is simply a dinosaur trying to compete in the modern NHL. He has two huge philosophical problems. The first is that after faceoff losses, he has his players back up into a defensive shell. This despite the fact that all the smart teams forecheck hard after faceoff losses, because possession of the puck is the most important part of the game. Carlyle essentially concedes possession and the team just backs up and waits for the opponents to attack.

The second problem is Carlyle's love of the dump and chase, a popular strategy in the past that all the smart teams have stopped doing. Again, possession of the puck is the biggest factor for success. The Leafs are freely giving it to the other team and hoping to get it back. It's stupid. Teams like LA, Chicago and Boston don't dump the puck, they hold onto it as much as the possibly can.

This isn't about players not having enough compete level or any BS buzz words Leafs management always throws around. It's coaching tactics, plain and simple. The evidence of this is clear. Check out this graph to see how Anaheim has significantly improved since firing Carlyle, while the Leafs have gotten worse since hiring him:



People always bring up Carlyle's Stanley Cup to defend him. One title doesn't mean he's a great coach. He won in his first year, before he had much of a chance to implement his system. He inherited a team with Scott Neidermeyer and Chris Pronger, two of the best defensemen EVER. It would be impossible to be terrible defensively with those two. The team continually got worse under Carlyle until they fired him. Since firing Carlyle, Anaheim has magically gone from mediocre to being a contender in the West.

The main difference between the Carlyle and Ron Wilson (or Paul Maurice, for that matter) teams is goaltending. Bernier posted the 6th-best save percentage at even strength in the league. He was great, especially considering the absurd and historic amounts of shots he faced every night. That performance masked the underlying and fatal flaws with the team. It's very likely that Bernier is not as good next season. If that happens and the Leafs continue this path of allowing so many shots, they will probably have one of the worst records in the league.

Not only is Carlyle making the current players worse with his tactics, but he's making the roster worse with the help of Nonis. Carlyle doesn't like Grabovski, so he's bought out. Meanwhile Grabovski was Washington's best possession player this year. Carlyle doesn't like MacArthur, so he's let go. Meanwhile MacArthur was Ottawa's best possession player this year. Now the players Carlyle doesn't seem to like are Kadri and Gardiner. Surprise, surprise, they're the Leafs two best possession players right now. The data for that is right here.

Ignoring possession stats is essentially like ignoring OBP in baseball and seeking out hitters who make the most outs. It's proven to have the best correlation to winning, but the Leafs seem to actively go against all the data. It's madness. Trading our two best possession guys in Kadri and Gardiner would be ridiculous. Of course it's what I expect, since the Leafs have made stupid decisions pretty consistently. But we need more guys like them, more skilled guys instead of the grinders Carlyle prefers.

I find the idea of retaining Carlyle because they're waiting for Babcock, or McLellan, or whoever, to be completely ridiculous. You don't keep a coach because you're waiting for the perfect match. You fire him because he's incompetent. My first choice for a replacement would be a guy like Davis Payne. He's the lead assistant in LA, the guy responsible for their strategy and integrating their analytics into that. The Leafs don't need to act like the stupid Knicks. We don't need to make splashy, headline-grabbing hires. Steal people away from smarter franchises. If not LA, target someone from Chicago or Boston. They're doing things right. We're doing things wrong, it's time to change.

The Leafs have been one of the worst teams in the sport since the 2005 lockout. It's because that lockout created a system that rewards smart franchises. Suddenly we couldn't spend our way into contention like baseball teams, it was up to management to make prudent and intelligent decisions. They're consistently failed to do that for almost a decade. I was naive to ever think this time would be different.

My two favourite Leafs writers put it all more poetically. I suggest everyone read the columns by James Mirtle and Bruce Arthur.

^Well put.

Above anything you think about Carlyle, think about how easy it would have been to just fire the coaching staff and given anyone else a shot. Fans happy, media happy, players happy. New hope. Instead they just fire the assistants in a gutless manner, that no one is falling for. Shanahan's claim that players are perceptive to the actions of management, so what message does it send to the players that bad work is rewarded? That the organization is going to maintain a culture of bull**** scapegoating (they're eager to shop Gardiner and Kadri!).

This isn't like the Raptors at all. Not yet. Ujiri brought in new assistants, but didn't completely clean house there. He also wiped out management and brought in all his own guys, but kept the analytics team that was seen by many in the community to be vanguards. Shanahan has just taken Nonis' word for it, and so then why is he even here?

*Sigh*. Horrible decision. I've never liked Carlyle, and never will. There's a bunch of coaches that'd be immediate upgrades over him, and we bring back the same guy that has led us to 2 consecutive collapses. Brilliant.

So they're leaking out that they want someone to bite on Phaneuf. Or someone is at least. This is the second year in a row there's been a leak that they've been interested in trading Dion. The biggest problem is that Dion isn't as good as they think he is, and they probably value him more than the rest of the league. So if he stays here we get more of the Peter Principle scenario we've dealt with in his time here, and if he goes it'll likely be for scraps (like how we got him in the first place). Lose-lose.