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Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs?

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Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#1 » by North_of_Border » Wed Oct 3, 2018 10:45 pm

No doubt he is a super star. He makes the team better. Plus he took a discount to come here.

But the $11 million he is paid. Well.... the leafs could have used that money as cusion money when locking up Matthews, Marner & Nylander. It would have been easy. All three guys locked up long term. But now they risk not being able to afford them all unless they take a discount.

Matthews showd he is not taking any discount when he signed his first deal. And why should he. He is not a local kid like Tavares. Coyotes maybe, but he is not on their roster.

Nylander also wants to get paid big. That's obvious now. And Marner as it looks now is about to break out and even if he took a discount, it won't be pretty for management.

Tavares money would have solved all this.

If the Leafs had say gotten Laine instead of Matthews. Then Tavares is a no brainer. U take the big centre. All champions have to have one.... But the Leafs already had that guy though.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#2 » by JB7 » Thu Oct 4, 2018 9:56 pm

Maybe he was a back-up plan, in case Matthews leaves for a US team next summer?

If a US team offers Matthews the max (20% of the cap), there is no way the Leafs could pay that and still maintain a cup contender.

A US team (like Arizona or Vegas) might just want one of the best US born players to play the game, regardless of what it does to their cap, for marketing reasons.

I wondered in the off-season, why the Leafs would spend their money on another #1 center, when the already had one, and a glaring hole on defense. Maybe they tried to sign Matthews this past summer, and he showed no interest preferring to wait until next summer, when he can get an offer sheet from another team?
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#3 » by ATLTimekeeper » Sat Oct 6, 2018 3:09 pm

These guys are RFA, not UFA, so there would be bare minimum favourable compensation if they couldn't be retained. We added Tavares for nothing, so no, it wasn't a mistake.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#4 » by North_of_Border » Sun Oct 7, 2018 9:51 am

Leafs would receive 4 First round picks if Matthews is signed to an offer sheet above 10 million dollars.

if those 4 first rounders are from Arizona. Great. Possible top overall picks year after year. Even with Matthews i dont trust their management to build anything special. If you HAVE to lose Matthews, this is the better option :nod:...... if he forces ur hand and u have no choice that is

.... If Vegas is the team, who have the money to make an offer. Well then the Leafs end up with 4 LATE first round picks. Not so great there for Toronto. :noway:
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#5 » by ATLTimekeeper » Sun Oct 7, 2018 2:53 pm

North_of_Border wrote:Leafs would receive 4 First round picks if Matthews is signed to an offer sheet above 10 million dollars.

if those 4 first rounders are from Arizona. Great. Possible top overall picks year after year. Even with Matthews i dont trust their management to build anything special. If you HAVE to lose Matthews, this is the better option :nod:...... if he forces ur hand and u have no choice that is

.... If Vegas is the team, who have the money to make an offer. Well then the Leafs end up with 4 LATE first round picks. Not so great there for Toronto. :noway:


If the number gets really high than Vegas won't be able to build around him very well, either, and those first rounders will become more valuable. It's not like they have a deep prospect pool, having just entered the league. They had a good year, which could be a fluke, could not. We'd know a lot more about them after the season anyway.

Anything a little over 10 is going to be matched by the Leafs. They can move out other salary to fit in a star like Matthews. imo, this is a made up concern by the media looking to generate some dialogue. Tavares, Matthews and Marner will all be long term Leafs, even if they're all +10 million/year. Nylander may be signed and then moved, or traded. I don't know, but he's a luxury item like Marleau, Kadri. These are the expendable parts of a contender, good but not great players.

Since the Leafs have been stocking the cupboard for a while they'll have a steady stream of prospects that enter to replace higher salaried role players. They'll have the ability to attract FAs on value deals because of the market and prospect of winning the cup.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#6 » by JB7 » Tue Oct 9, 2018 3:17 am

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
North_of_Border wrote:Leafs would receive 4 First round picks if Matthews is signed to an offer sheet above 10 million dollars.

if those 4 first rounders are from Arizona. Great. Possible top overall picks year after year. Even with Matthews i dont trust their management to build anything special. If you HAVE to lose Matthews, this is the better option :nod:...... if he forces ur hand and u have no choice that is

.... If Vegas is the team, who have the money to make an offer. Well then the Leafs end up with 4 LATE first round picks. Not so great there for Toronto. :noway:


If the number gets really high than Vegas won't be able to build around him very well, either, and those first rounders will become more valuable. It's not like they have a deep prospect pool, having just entered the league. They had a good year, which could be a fluke, could not. We'd know a lot more about them after the season anyway.

Anything a little over 10 is going to be matched by the Leafs. They can move out other salary to fit in a star like Matthews. imo, this is a made up concern by the media looking to generate some dialogue. Tavares, Matthews and Marner will all be long term Leafs, even if they're all +10 million/year. Nylander may be signed and then moved, or traded. I don't know, but he's a luxury item like Marleau, Kadri. These are the expendable parts of a contender, good but not great players.

Since the Leafs have been stocking the cupboard for a while they'll have a steady stream of prospects that enter to replace higher salaried role players. They'll have the ability to attract FAs on value deals because of the market and prospect of winning the cup.


Last year could not be a complete fluke for Vegas. You don’t make it to the finals as a fluke. They were able to build from scratch, the type of team necessary to win in the league at this time. They have their goaltending locked up. A decent defence and a few key offensive players, plus a #2 Center in waiting in the minors.

Even giving Mathews the max, they could still be competitive. Plus, sometimes it is not always about winning the cup. For them, it could be just trying to stay competitive in a market soon to add the NFL.

If the Leafs were going to sign Mathews, it would have happened this past summer, like it did for McDavid (who signed the summer before his RFA, a month before they signed Draisaitl who was in his RFA). You don’t let those type of players get near offer sheets, unless they want it. Plus as Edmonton did, you start with your #1 star, lock them up, then go down the line locking up #2, #3, etc, until you run out of money. You don’t start at the bottom, and work in reverse.

But, as I said before, I bet they did start with Mathews, and he refused to sign this past summer. Even when you hear his comments on the contract, he talks about it being a long time off (another year), because he is not intent on signing now, I believe.

If the Leafs were to match a max deal of $16M, plus Tavares $11M and something close to $10M for Marner, you would be looking at close to half of your cap going to 3 players. No way the Leafs would put themselves in that cap hell.

I always worried that drafting a US star could be difficult for the Leafs to keep. The lure of the US markets/cities may be too strong for Mathews to stay.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#7 » by ATLTimekeeper » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:16 pm

It's possible they could clear room, but right now they have to extend William Karlsson and he will be making around 10 should he repeat last year. Their cap isn't as flexible as it looks. They've got an older team with a lot of long-term commitments. Their prospect pool isn't very deep. The Leafs core players are really young and they have one of the deeper prospect pools in the league to replace role players coming up.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#8 » by whysoserious » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:23 pm

There's no way signing Tavares was a financial mistake. Tavares got signed at a good discount.

The Leafs should be able to and can afford Nylander, Matthews and Marner and they will sign at least two of those guys, if the third one (Nylander) wants to hold out for max value (which he is within his rights to do) then the Leafs will trade him at some point, he'll get his money but he won't be on a team good enough to contend so hopefully he's happy with his money.

I'm sure these guys want to maximize their dollars and they should to an extent, but if the three guys fall in line, they could get paid very well and win multiple Cups as a group. They'd be gods in Toronto and more than makeup the money off the ice.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#9 » by ATLTimekeeper » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:00 pm

whysoserious wrote:There's no way signing Tavares was a financial mistake. Tavares got signed at a good discount.

The Leafs should be able to and can afford Nylander, Matthews and Marner and they will sign at least two of those guys, if the third one (Nylander) wants to hold out for max value (which he is within his rights to do) then the Leafs will trade him at some point, he'll get his money but he won't be on a team good enough to contend so hopefully he's happy with his money.

I'm sure these guys want to maximize their dollars and they should to an extent, but if the three guys fall in line, they could get paid very well and win multiple Cups as a group. They'd be gods in Toronto and more than makeup the money off the ice.


More to the point, if somehow Matthews got that ridiculous RFA offer and we couldn't afford Marner OR Nylander, we'd still be better off matching that offer and Tavares would still be on a good deal. The Leafs would still have a better base to build a champion with just those two than most teams in the league.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#10 » by whysoserious » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:40 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
whysoserious wrote:There's no way signing Tavares was a financial mistake. Tavares got signed at a good discount.

The Leafs should be able to and can afford Nylander, Matthews and Marner and they will sign at least two of those guys, if the third one (Nylander) wants to hold out for max value (which he is within his rights to do) then the Leafs will trade him at some point, he'll get his money but he won't be on a team good enough to contend so hopefully he's happy with his money.

I'm sure these guys want to maximize their dollars and they should to an extent, but if the three guys fall in line, they could get paid very well and win multiple Cups as a group. They'd be gods in Toronto and more than makeup the money off the ice.


More to the point, if somehow Matthews got that ridiculous RFA offer and we couldn't afford Marner OR Nylander, we'd still be better off matching that offer and Tavares would still be on a good deal. The Leafs would still have a better base to build a champion with just those two than most teams in the league.


Yup and you have to remember that guys like Marleau will eventually come off the cap and i don't expect Gardiner to stick around. Plus you have guys like Kapanen waiting to take on bigger roles.

I think the leafs know they'll do what's necessary to keep Matthews, Marner and Tavares. It sucks for Nylander but he's the guy that gets squeezed and he has a choice to make, take the pay cut now for a chance to stick with these guys and contend or hold out till he gets traded, paid and who knows what his situation ends up as on the ice.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#11 » by JB7 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:20 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:It's possible they could clear room, but right now they have to extend William Karlsson and he will be making around 10 should he repeat last year. Their cap isn't as flexible as it looks. They've got an older team with a lot of long-term commitments. Their prospect pool isn't very deep. The Leafs core players are really young and they have one of the deeper prospect pools in the league to replace role players coming up.


Vegas could trade Karlsson's rights to recoup a draft pick, surrendered in signing Matthews.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#12 » by JB7 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:27 pm

whysoserious wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
whysoserious wrote:There's no way signing Tavares was a financial mistake. Tavares got signed at a good discount.

The Leafs should be able to and can afford Nylander, Matthews and Marner and they will sign at least two of those guys, if the third one (Nylander) wants to hold out for max value (which he is within his rights to do) then the Leafs will trade him at some point, he'll get his money but he won't be on a team good enough to contend so hopefully he's happy with his money.

I'm sure these guys want to maximize their dollars and they should to an extent, but if the three guys fall in line, they could get paid very well and win multiple Cups as a group. They'd be gods in Toronto and more than makeup the money off the ice.


More to the point, if somehow Matthews got that ridiculous RFA offer and we couldn't afford Marner OR Nylander, we'd still be better off matching that offer and Tavares would still be on a good deal. The Leafs would still have a better base to build a champion with just those two than most teams in the league.


Yup and you have to remember that guys like Marleau will eventually come off the cap and i don't expect Gardiner to stick around. Plus you have guys like Kapanen waiting to take on bigger roles.

I think the leafs know they'll do what's necessary to keep Matthews, Marner and Tavares. It sucks for Nylander but he's the guy that gets squeezed and he has a choice to make, take the pay cut now for a chance to stick with these guys and contend or hold out till he gets traded, paid and who knows what his situation ends up as on the ice.


If the cap is $80M next year, and Matthews gets 20% cap - $16M, plus Tavares' $11M, and say Marner gets $10M, that is $37M (almost 50% of the cap) on 3 players. Once you add Andersen's $5M and Rielly's $5M, that leaves $33M for the remaining 18 players you need to fill out the roster, which works out to $1.8M per player. Considering the minimum is $650,000, and most players expect around $1M, there is very little room to fill out a roster.

Can a team really compete for a cup with that payroll imbalance?
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#13 » by North_of_Border » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:33 am

So the question is. In hindsight.
Would Leafs have been better to take Patrick Laine?

That guy is comfortable in even Winnipeg. He would have signed long term in Toronto easily.

Matthews might jump ship to a US team.

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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#14 » by whysoserious » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:27 pm

JB7 wrote:
If the cap is $80M next year, and Matthews gets 20% cap - $16M, plus Tavares' $11M, and say Marner gets $10M, that is $37M (almost 50% of the cap) on 3 players. Once you add Andersen's $5M and Rielly's $5M, that leaves $33M for the remaining 18 players you need to fill out the roster, which works out to $1.8M per player. Considering the minimum is $650,000, and most players expect around $1M, there is very little room to fill out a roster.

Can a team really compete for a cup with that payroll imbalance?


Yes it can, you pay your best players the money they deserve. It will squeeze guys at the bottom for sure and that's why you need to continually draft well and decide to let some guys go eventually. But you ultimately have to pay your best players what they are worth. I doubt though that Matthews is going to get $16 million per. You'll have to let guys like Gardiner go though and you'll have to make trades to shed salary. A year after next though Marleau comes off the books. You're going to have to play with the numbers but you can make it work.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#15 » by whysoserious » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:29 pm

North_of_Border wrote:So the question is. In hindsight.
Would Leafs have been better to take Patrick Laine?

That guy is comfortable in even Winnipeg. He would have signed long term in Toronto easily.

Matthews might jump ship to a US team.

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What suggests Matthews might jump easily? He seems happy, he's the number 1 C, he's getting paid and he's on a contender. There's always the risk of a guy leaving but you don't make draft choices around who might stay long-term. Matthews was the clear choice.

I'm really not sure where you are trying to take this discussion. This fear of the unknown, especially the fact that Nylander hasn't signed, seems to have spooked fans. The decisions made under Shanahan have, for the most part, been the right decisions to make at the time they were made.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#16 » by ATLTimekeeper » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:36 pm

JB7 wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:It's possible they could clear room, but right now they have to extend William Karlsson and he will be making around 10 should he repeat last year. Their cap isn't as flexible as it looks. They've got an older team with a lot of long-term commitments. Their prospect pool isn't very deep. The Leafs core players are really young and they have one of the deeper prospect pools in the league to replace role players coming up.


Vegas could trade Karlsson's rights to recoup a draft pick, surrendered in signing Matthews.


Yes, and then they'd be a worse team and Matthews would be holding down the fort on an old team with a middling prospect pool.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#17 » by JB7 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:50 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
JB7 wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:It's possible they could clear room, but right now they have to extend William Karlsson and he will be making around 10 should he repeat last year. Their cap isn't as flexible as it looks. They've got an older team with a lot of long-term commitments. Their prospect pool isn't very deep. The Leafs core players are really young and they have one of the deeper prospect pools in the league to replace role players coming up.


Vegas could trade Karlsson's rights to recoup a draft pick, surrendered in signing Matthews.


Yes, and then they'd be a worse team and Matthews would be holding down the fort on an old team with a middling prospect pool.


If Vegas were to sign Matthews, and trade Karlsson to recoup a pick, their core would be:
C - Matthews (21), Stastny (32), Glass (19)
W - Marchessault (27), Pacioretty (29), Haula (27), Smith (27)
D - Theodore (23), Miller (25), McNabb (27)
G - Fleury (33), Subban (24)

Not bad and not that old - they could fill out the rest of the roster with lower cost players. The only players close to the end of their careers (Stastny & Fleury) have younger future fill-ins (Glass & Subban).
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#18 » by JB7 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:05 pm

whysoserious wrote:
JB7 wrote:
If the cap is $80M next year, and Matthews gets 20% cap - $16M, plus Tavares' $11M, and say Marner gets $10M, that is $37M (almost 50% of the cap) on 3 players. Once you add Andersen's $5M and Rielly's $5M, that leaves $33M for the remaining 18 players you need to fill out the roster, which works out to $1.8M per player. Considering the minimum is $650,000, and most players expect around $1M, there is very little room to fill out a roster.

Can a team really compete for a cup with that payroll imbalance?


Yes it can, you pay your best players the money they deserve. It will squeeze guys at the bottom for sure and that's why you need to continually draft well and decide to let some guys go eventually. But you ultimately have to pay your best players what they are worth. I doubt though that Matthews is going to get $16 million per. You'll have to let guys like Gardiner go though and you'll have to make trades to shed salary. A year after next though Marleau comes off the books. You're going to have to play with the numbers but you can make it work.


Assumption was a US-based team would offer Matthews the max ($16M) to get him out of Toronto, because Leafs would have a hard time matching that number.

If they matched, and paid Marner, roster could look like:
F - Matthews ($16M), Tavares ($11M), Marner ($10M), Marleau ($6.25M), Kadri ($4.5M), Hyman ($2.25M), Brown ($2.1M) and Gauthier ($0.675M)
D - Rielly ($5M), Zaitsev ($4.5M), Dermott ($0.863M) and Holl ($0.675M)
G - Andersen ($5M)
Total = $69M for 12 players (leaves $11M for 11 players to fill out the roster)

Decision would be: do you trade Marleau to be able to sign Kapanen? Assumes no money for Nylander.
Plus defense would be Rielly and Zaitsev, plus 5 minor league players.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#19 » by whysoserious » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:14 pm

JB7 wrote:
Assumption was a US-based team would offer Matthews the max ($16M) to get him out of Toronto, because Leafs would have a hard time matching that number.

If they matched, and paid Marner, roster could look like:
F - Matthews ($16M), Tavares ($11M), Marner ($10M), Marleau ($6.25M), Kadri ($4.5M), Hyman ($2.25M), Brown ($2.1M) and Gauthier ($0.675M)
D - Rielly ($5M), Zaitsev ($4.5M), Dermott ($0.863M) and Holl ($0.675M)
G - Andersen ($5M)
Total = $69M for 12 players (leaves $11M for 11 players to fill out the roster)

Decision would be: do you trade Marleau to be able to sign Kapanen? Assumes no money for Nylander.
Plus defense would be Rielly and Zaitsev, plus 5 minor league players.


Your assumptions though are all based on this fear of some american team jumping in with a huge offer for Matthews, which will cost them a huge amount of picks. The Leafs are positioned to keep him by matching the offer sheet or walk away, take the picks and still field a legit contender.

We all know there is a money crunch and the potential for a team (any team not just US ones) to try and force the Leafs hand but the Leafs can work around all these guys. It's way too early to have this fear built in and based on this fear there's really no point in talking about whether the Leafs should have drafted Laine over Matthews because of the eventual money, who knows if Marner and Nylander worked out? You take the best players available, you develop them and you work the money. The Leafs have a ton of options to keep this thing going. They are doing the prudent thing right now by trying to get the guys in line, take a slight discount and keep everyone together.

As ATL mentioned, other teams that might make a huge offer won't have the upside really to build the foundation the Leafs have right now. Matthews would be leaving hoping whatever team takes him will eventually add the talent around him to get back to the potential he has here and it will cost them a large amount of that future in the picks they gave up.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#20 » by JB7 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:17 pm

whysoserious wrote:
North_of_Border wrote:So the question is. In hindsight.
Would Leafs have been better to take Patrick Laine?

That guy is comfortable in even Winnipeg. He would have signed long term in Toronto easily.

Matthews might jump ship to a US team.

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What suggests Matthews might jump easily? He seems happy, he's the number 1 C, he's getting paid and he's on a contender. There's always the risk of a guy leaving but you don't make draft choices around who might stay long-term. Matthews was the clear choice.

I'm really not sure where you are trying to take this discussion. This fear of the unknown, especially the fact that Nylander hasn't signed, seems to have spooked fans. The decisions made under Shanahan have, for the most part, been the right decisions to make at the time they were made.


On Sportsnet and the Fan 590, they have started to talk about it. Kypreos mentioned the possibility of Arizona trying to Offer Sheet Matthews (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/cant-coyotes-matthews-leafs-tavares/). And on the Fan this morning, Blair was talking about the risk of an offer sheet coming in on Matthews this summer.

My guess is once the Leafs could not sign Matthews this summer, they focused on Tavares and got him signed as a back-up plan. They are now using their media outlets (Rogers) to get the message out there slowly that there is the risk of Matthews not signing, along with Shanahan's comments that will be used to paint Matthews as not be interested in taking a pay cut to win, so they can position themselves to trade him for the pieces they need to win later this year. They need to condition the fans first for a reality they realized this summer.

I doubt they would want to leave it to him just signing with whomever, and the Leafs being stuck with 4 picks from an unknown team, when they could rather move him for the pieces they like.

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