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Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs?

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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#21 » by whysoserious » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:25 pm

JB7 wrote:
On Sportsnet and the Fan 590, they have started to talk about it. Kypreos mentioned the possibility of Arizona trying to Offer Sheet Matthews (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/cant-coyotes-matthews-leafs-tavares/). And on the Fan this morning, Blair was talking about the risk of an offer sheet coming in on Matthews this summer.

My guess is once the Leafs could not sign Matthews this summer, they focused on Tavares and got him signed as a back-up plan. They are now using their media outlets (Rogers) to get the message out there slowly that there is the risk of Matthews not signing, along with Shanahan's comments that will be used to paint Matthews as not be interested in taking a pay cut to win, so they can position themselves to trade him for the pieces they need to win later this year. They need to condition the fans first for a reality they realized this summer.

I doubt they would want to leave it to him just signing with whomever, and the Leafs being stuck with 4 picks from an unknown team, when they could rather move him for the pieces they like.


Just because the talking heads are talking about it doesn't make it true. It's highly costly to make an offer sheet which is why we haven't seen one in forever. And most certainly we haven't seen one completed.

Conjecture and speculation from Kypper and the likes doesn't mean anything. Not everything is a conspiracy and the organization using it's media outlets to disseminate information to the public. The fact they haven't signed Matthews doesn't mean much, at least not the way you're trying to frame it. What I'm reading from you is the typical stuff we hear from fans on the Fan590 or read, this fear that something more is going on, that the Leafs are screwed, that they went after Tavares as a backup in case Matthews walked,. This ignores the fact that they went after Stamkos after Matthews was drafted. They are tryign to add high end talent and had the cap room to do so. Theres a benefit of a hedge to the Tavares deal in case Matthews leaves, but this wasn't some gradn design they came to do because they weren't able to sign Matthews. As Tavares said, he came here to play with these guys, not to have them leave and back to a middling team.

Look, there's work to be done to fit everyone in. There's no denying that. It's going to be difficult, but to suggest all these other things and to start planning out of fear is a huge leap that is completely unnecessary at this point.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#22 » by JB7 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:59 pm

All that I'm saying is I think the Leafs are being prudent in their planning, and continuing to lay the foundation for future success. Matthews does not necessarily need to be a part of it, and if the risk is him signing an offer sheet this summer (just over 8 months away), then the prudent thing would be to plan alternative scenario's.

The scenario's are:
1) re-sign him (which could mean matching a max contract)
2) let him sign with another team and collect the 4 draft picks
3) trade him before the deadline to a team that will match whatever offer he gets, to have more control over the pieces you would receive in return

If Matthews was going to sign a lower deal to stay on the team and maintain it as a contender, I would have thought he would have signed this summer (year before his RFA), like McDavid did. Why take the risk of suffering a long-term injury, without financial security, if you are intent on signing a reasonable deal anyways.

Back to the original point I made at the start, I think signing Tavares was the Leafs choosing scenario 2 or 3. Why sign Tavares to an $11M deal, if you knew in the summer it was going to possibly take matching a substantial deal for Matthews to keep him, especially when you already had a decent, cost-effective option for a #2 center in Kadri.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#23 » by North_of_Border » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:01 pm

The thing is if you trade Matthews you will NOT get equal value. At most you will get top young prospects but they are just lottery tickets. Same goes for the 4 first rounder if you let him walk. Lottery tickets.

Matthews is a proven superstar that has not even reached his Prime. What player could possibly be out there that would be equal value. Assuming his team is ready to deal with Toronto.

I think no matter what happens. Toronto HAS to match the offer. Then you worry about the rest later.

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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#24 » by North_of_Border » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:58 am

Make Edmonton an offer they can't refuse.

- Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly

For

- McDavid, Lucic (salary dump)
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Give oilers Whatever they want for Mcdavid. Even if you have to bottom out to do it.... u can always rebuild quick with mcdavid.

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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#25 » by JB7 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:01 am

North_of_Border wrote:The thing is if you trade Matthews you will NOT get equal value. At most you will get top young prospects but they are just lottery tickets. Same goes for the 4 first rounder if you let him walk. Lottery tickets.

Matthews is a proven superstar that has not even reached his Prime. What player could possibly be out there that would be equal value. Assuming his team is ready to deal with Toronto.

I think no matter what happens. Toronto HAS to match the offer. Then you worry about the rest later.

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You won’t get equal value in terms of a 21 yr old superstar center, Edmonton is not trading McDavid. But you could get pieces to help you win. Plus, the window of opportunity for the Leafs to win is probably the next 3 yrs (the remaining term on Andersen’s contract). No matter how talented your team is, you can't win a cup without decent goaltending, and where is the next goaltender for the Leafs coming from?

There are 24 US teams that would love to have Matthews. All you have to do is find one willing to match a max offer sheet (which would then eliminate the offer sheet - why would a team make an offer sheet to drive up costs, if they know it won’t work).

I can think of a few teams that have players the Leafs could be interested in to win in the short term:
- St.Louis: Pietrangelo, Schenn & Parayko + draft picks and prospects (Kyrou)
- Nashville: Subban & Johansen
- San Jose: Burns or Karlsson + prospects and picks
- LA: Doughty, Kopitar, Muzzin & Toffoli

The Leafs could add Matthews linemate (Nylander) in the deal as well to sweeten the pot, along with dumping salary (Zaitsev & Gardiner).

The Leafs could use the deal to balance out their roster, adding the depth to their defence that they are missing, in exchange for some of their offensive firepower.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#26 » by whysoserious » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:14 pm

JB7 wrote:All that I'm saying is I think the Leafs are being prudent in their planning, and continuing to lay the foundation for future success. Matthews does not necessarily need to be a part of it, and if the risk is him signing an offer sheet this summer (just over 8 months away), then the prudent thing would be to plan alternative scenario's.

The scenario's are:
1) re-sign him (which could mean matching a max contract)
2) let him sign with another team and collect the 4 draft picks
3) trade him before the deadline to a team that will match whatever offer he gets, to have more control over the pieces you would receive in return

If Matthews was going to sign a lower deal to stay on the team and maintain it as a contender, I would have thought he would have signed this summer (year before his RFA), like McDavid did. Why take the risk of suffering a long-term injury, without financial security, if you are intent on signing a reasonable deal anyways.

Back to the original point I made at the start, I think signing Tavares was the Leafs choosing scenario 2 or 3. Why sign Tavares to an $11M deal, if you knew in the summer it was going to possibly take matching a substantial deal for Matthews to keep him, especially when you already had a decent, cost-effective option for a #2 center in Kadri.



Nothing you've stated as far as the Leafs options are wrong, it's the premise that you're working under that is making a ton of assumptions and jumping to making rash decisions.

First and foremost, the Leafs sucked for 10 years, they finally realized they needed a true rebuild, they did and land a guy that is a potential all-time great and 3 years later you're saying due to contractual situation they should just get rid of him because they don't need him to contend?

They absolutely need him to contend. You need as much talent as possible and as good as Tavares is, he came here to play with these guys, he's not going to be happy if we start jettisoning guys away for money reasons. Money and cap has to be considered in all this, i'm not saying they don't need to be but you don't trade a Matthews at 21-22 who is on the way to being a HOF guy and all-time great Leaf. You jettison guys like Marner and Nylander long before you trade Matthews.

Second, you're working under the premise that he didn't sign this summer so he's not willing to accept less. We don't know that. We can assume that he definitely wants to be paid as the best player on the team and he should be paid that. Right now, the Leafs are balancing 3 contracts at the same time, the first priority was Nylander and that hasn't happened yet. What happens with him locks in what the Leafs do with Matthews and Marner. If they sign Matthews this summer to a big deal, that leaves them in a tough position when dealing with Nylander because his agent now has a benchmark to work off of for the Leafs young guys. The Leafs and Matthews probably have a framework of a deal in place but one that has room still to finalize. Matthews is taking an injury risk by not signing now but this is not some indication he wants his 16 million hell or highwater that you are making it out to be and that the Leafs need to force a decision now. As you said, they are being prudent, they want to keep all three and that's their goal right now. How they do it though is very tough and takes finesse working around all the angles. Right now, they want Nylander to come in lower because it improves their cap situation but it also shows the other two taking less to keep the team together is something guys are buying in to. All three are going to get paid very handsomely.

Nylander is likely the odd man out though right now. The Leafs offense is rolling, Marner and Matthews are driving up their price and the Leafs my just decide to trade Nylander/Gardiner in a package to get an elite defensemen, then the other two get paid. There's a lot of moving parts.

Trading Matthews now, or discussing drafting Laine over him due to the contract crunch makes no sense though.

As for your last part of signing Tavares, I'm sure there's some hedging there in case Matthews somehow does leave. But the point of signing him was to get more talent to go after a cup, not some cap planning move. Kadri is not a second line Centre, he's 2/3 and best suited sitting in that third C spot. The leafs have the best 3 C group in the league, that's what signing Tavares was about.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#27 » by whysoserious » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:16 pm

North_of_Border wrote:Make Edmonton an offer they can't refuse.

- Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly

For

- McDavid, Lucic (salary dump)
________________________

Give oilers Whatever they want for Mcdavid. Even if you have to bottom out to do it.... u can always rebuild quick with mcdavid.

Bring him home

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As good as McDavid is, that is way too high a price to play to get McDavid. Tavares and McDavid would be left with no one to play with. Leafs Defense gets worse and Lucic takes up cap room. You're better of signing two of the trio that needs deals and dealing either Marner/Nylander. Matthews is an absolute signing the Leafs have to make. This should not be up for debate at all.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#28 » by whysoserious » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:20 pm

I can't even believe that the discussion of trading Matthews is happening. This is the most ridiculous thing I've seen. Leafs fans put up with 10+ years of garbage, get a rebuild finally in place, have a true contender this year and due the cap/contract issues (which are a reality, no denying it) they are ready to jettison Matthews for some roster/cap balancing move.

JUST NO. You need as much talent as possible and the Leafs have that right now, it's up to them to figure out the contracts. If Matthews signing costs you one of Marner/Nylander so be it. You shouldn't be trying to trade Matthews to keep those guys, you should be trading one of the other two to sign Matthews plus one of them. And the guy on the outs now is Nylander.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#29 » by ATLTimekeeper » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:38 pm

They would just sign him for 16 or whatever ridiculous number was out there. They wouldn't pre-emptively trade him on the assumption that he would blow their cap. They would trade Tavares before they traded Matthews. The savings would always always come from somewhere else when you have an elite player at that age. Think of how many superstars have been moved early in their career in the cap era? Just draw on that record before worrying about what Kypreos is blabbling about to fill his hundred hours of air time a season.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#30 » by JB7 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:09 pm

whysoserious wrote:
JB7 wrote:All that I'm saying is I think the Leafs are being prudent in their planning, and continuing to lay the foundation for future success. Matthews does not necessarily need to be a part of it, and if the risk is him signing an offer sheet this summer (just over 8 months away), then the prudent thing would be to plan alternative scenario's.

The scenario's are:
1) re-sign him (which could mean matching a max contract)
2) let him sign with another team and collect the 4 draft picks
3) trade him before the deadline to a team that will match whatever offer he gets, to have more control over the pieces you would receive in return

If Matthews was going to sign a lower deal to stay on the team and maintain it as a contender, I would have thought he would have signed this summer (year before his RFA), like McDavid did. Why take the risk of suffering a long-term injury, without financial security, if you are intent on signing a reasonable deal anyways.

Back to the original point I made at the start, I think signing Tavares was the Leafs choosing scenario 2 or 3. Why sign Tavares to an $11M deal, if you knew in the summer it was going to possibly take matching a substantial deal for Matthews to keep him, especially when you already had a decent, cost-effective option for a #2 center in Kadri.



Nothing you've stated as far as the Leafs options are wrong, it's the premise that you're working under that is making a ton of assumptions and jumping to making rash decisions.

First and foremost, the Leafs sucked for 10 years, they finally realized they needed a true rebuild, they did and land a guy that is a potential all-time great and 3 years later you're saying due to contractual situation they should just get rid of him because they don't need him to contend?

They absolutely need him to contend. You need as much talent as possible and as good as Tavares is, he came here to play with these guys, he's not going to be happy if we start jettisoning guys away for money reasons. Money and cap has to be considered in all this, i'm not saying they don't need to be but you don't trade a Matthews at 21-22 who is on the way to being a HOF guy and all-time great Leaf. You jettison guys like Marner and Nylander long before you trade Matthews.

Second, you're working under the premise that he didn't sign this summer so he's not willing to accept less. We don't know that. We can assume that he definitely wants to be paid as the best player on the team and he should be paid that. Right now, the Leafs are balancing 3 contracts at the same time, the first priority was Nylander and that hasn't happened yet. What happens with him locks in what the Leafs do with Matthews and Marner. If they sign Matthews this summer to a big deal, that leaves them in a tough position when dealing with Nylander because his agent now has a benchmark to work off of for the Leafs young guys. The Leafs and Matthews probably have a framework of a deal in place but one that has room still to finalize. Matthews is taking an injury risk by not signing now but this is not some indication he wants his 16 million hell or highwater that you are making it out to be and that the Leafs need to force a decision now. As you said, they are being prudent, they want to keep all three and that's their goal right now. How they do it though is very tough and takes finesse working around all the angles. Right now, they want Nylander to come in lower because it improves their cap situation but it also shows the other two taking less to keep the team together is something guys are buying in to. All three are going to get paid very handsomely.

Nylander is likely the odd man out though right now. The Leafs offense is rolling, Marner and Matthews are driving up their price and the Leafs my just decide to trade Nylander/Gardiner in a package to get an elite defensemen, then the other two get paid. There's a lot of moving parts.

Trading Matthews now, or discussing drafting Laine over him due to the contract crunch makes no sense though.

As for your last part of signing Tavares, I'm sure there's some hedging there in case Matthews somehow does leave. But the point of signing him was to get more talent to go after a cup, not some cap planning move. Kadri is not a second line Centre, he's 2/3 and best suited sitting in that third C spot. The leafs have the best 3 C group in the league, that's what signing Tavares was about.


First - I never stated any idea about drafting Laine over Matthews. You always draft the best talent. Drafting Matthews was the right move. Likewise, moving him now also might be the right move.

You don't need the most talented player to win the cup. If that were the case, Edmonton would have at least made the playoffs last year. You need one of the best rosters of players, goaltending and luck (minimal injuries).

Chicago did not dominate the league, and win three cups because Toews and Kane were the absolute best players in the game. They won because those two were some of the top players in the game, and their roster was strong, including their core 5 (Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook and Crawford). They have been on the downswing the last couple of years because 3 of their core 5 players are aging out (Keith, Seabrook and Crawford). Which also plays into, you need your players peaking at the right time.

In terms of money, I think Matthews wants nothing less than the maximum amount he can negotiate. We are talking about a player who for his last year of junior hockey, before the draft, played in Europe so he could get paid. He realizes his talent, and is looking to maximize the money he can make with that talent.

In terms of how you go about signing your top players, as I said before, you focus on your best first and then go down the line (like Edmonton did with McDavid and Draisaitl). You lock up the players that matter most first, Matthews, Marner, then Nylander, if there is money left. You don't work in reverse.

With all of the messages coming out from Leafs management or media controlled by them, it is all about reading between the lines.

When Shanahan came out publicly with the comments about taking less to win, usually coming out publicly to challenge the players means things are not going well behind the scenes. Why embarrass your players publicly with comments like that, unless you are sure they are going to take less to win. If they are not, it just paints them as greedy, which is probably the strategy.

And the way the players responded ("our agents will deal with the negotiations") is classic we won't be pushed around.

I think the way the media has been talking up Marner's value, is setting him up to look like he'll eventually take 'less' to win. Last year folks probably had Marner and Nylander pegged at about $6M per year (like Ehlers). They have been talking up Marner's value to like $10M, which means if he signs for $8M or $9M, he still looks like he is taking less.

I think the plan was to sign Marner as well this past offseason. It was also probably the reason they started Marner on the 4th line last year, to suppress his scoring totals, leading into this past summer. They did the same thing with Kadri and Rielly, before they signed their RFA deals.

The season before Kadri signed was when they were all over him about his attitude, combined with the lack of talent around him that kept his numbers suppressed. In 2013-14 he had 20 goals and 50 pts; the following two seasons he had under 20 goals and under 50 pts, which led into him signing April 2016. Then after signing, the following season he is all of a sudden playing with talent and on the power play and producing 30+ goal seasons and over 55 to 61 pt seasons.

With Rielly, the year before he signed his RFA deal, they essentially kept him off the powerplay to keep his numbers down going into negotiations. The message at the time was Rielly needed to work on his 'defensive' responsibilities. They kept it like that for a year after he signed (April 2016) as well, probably to not make it look as obvious as what they did to Kadri. In 2015-16 and 2016-17, Rielly has only 6 and 4 assists on the powerplay. In 2017-18, when he becomes the primary quarterback on the powerplay, it goes up to 24 assists.

Based on Kypreos' comments that other day about Nashville being a potential target, possibly considering moving Subban (Kypreos' was talking in the context of Nylander; but no way Nashville moves Subban for Nylander), my guess is the Leafs management is floating the idea of trying to go after Subban (because there is probably nothing that comes out of Kypreos' mouth that is not spoon fed to him by Leafs management).

Nashville presents an interesting scenario:
- Matthews, Nylander and Gardiner for Subban, Johansen and two 1st round picks (to help account for the age difference)

Subban is locked into 4 remaining years at a respectable number $9M (which takes him through age 29 to 33). His deal comes up the same year Rielly's deal comes up. So you could see a shift in the cap hit from Subban to Rielly, as Rielly gets paid more for his prime years (age 28+), while Subban could sign an extension that front ends the money, and lowers the cap hit, keeping him around for age 33+ and beyond, until he develops a long-term injury, to get him off the books in the final years of his deal.

Johansen's deal is also fairly reasonable for a 2nd line center at $8M per year for 7 more years, taking him to age 33 (ends the same year as Tavares' deal, who would be 35 at the end of his deal). So for the next 7 years your 1st and 2nd line centers are locked up. The 3rd line center (Kadri) is locked up for another 4 years, at which time they would not extend him - Kadri will be looking for a huge pay day at age 32 to make up for his current under value contract.

This would leave money available to give Marner and Kapanen long-term deals, and possibly keep Marleau for next year, as well as extend him another year or two, if healthy enough. Or they could look to another veteran looking to win a cup in the back-end of his career.

Essentially, the core would be locked up: Tavares, Marner, Johansen, Subban and Rielly for a long time, and hopefully they can find another goaltender after Andersen's deal expires in 3 years, to continue the contender status (maybe Malcolm Subban might find himself a UFA 3 years from now?).

There would be no drop-off in the powerplay, as Subban slots in beside Rielly, with Tavares, Marner and Kadri up front.

Who knows.....
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#31 » by JB7 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:16 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:They would just sign him for 16 or whatever ridiculous number was out there. They wouldn't pre-emptively trade him on the assumption that he would blow their cap. They would trade Tavares before they traded Matthews. The savings would always always come from somewhere else when you have an elite player at that age. Think of how many superstars have been moved early in their career in the cap era? Just draw on that record before worrying about what Kypreos is blabbling about to fill his hundred hours of air time a season.


Tavares has a NMC. There is no way he would allow them to move him months into signing him.

The league has changed dramatically with the cap restrictions. Young players are realizing they need to get paid during their productive years, because they are not getting paid past their prime as they did in previous seasons.

It is all about making your money while you can, and Matthews at 22 next year will be going into some of his most productive years.

So if the Leafs are serious about winning a cup, holding onto a superstar costing you max might negate that dream...

In the past, with no cap, teams could pay whatever was necessary to keep their players. If there was no cap, the Leafs would have signed all of these guys to massive deals by now. They clearly have the money to do so. That was why young superstars never moved. There was never a salary cap to worry about.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#32 » by whysoserious » Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:48 pm

JB7 wrote:
First - I never stated any idea about drafting Laine over Matthews. You always draft the best talent. Drafting Matthews was the right move. Likewise, moving him now also might be the right move.


My bad, that was another poster so apologies for associating that point with you.

You don't need the most talented player to win the cup. If that were the case, Edmonton would have at least made the playoffs last year. You need one of the best rosters of players, goaltending and luck (minimal injuries).


You absolutely need high end talent to win the Cup. The Hawks did it with multiple high end guys, whether they were the best in the league or not doesn't matter. Then you have the Kings who also won multiple cups with high end guys, same with the Penguins and so on and so on. You'll have odd fluke years where teams win cause of balance or make it to the finals, that doesn't mean it's a model that should be followed.

Having the best player helps you win cups, it's that simple. Edmonton's problems go beyond McDavid, they've been a problem for years during their rebuild, that's why they had so many lottery picks and first picks, landing one player wasn't fixing some fundamental issues they had as an organization.

Chicago did not dominate the league, and win three cups because Toews and Kane were the absolute best players in the game. They won because those two were some of the top players in the game, and their roster was strong, including their core 5 (Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook and Crawford). They have been on the downswing the last couple of years because 3 of their core 5 players are aging out (Keith, Seabrook and Crawford). Which also plays into, you need your players peaking at the right time.


Those guys on the Hawks were playing at a high level. The same high level we're seeing Matthews at and yet you're willing to trade him in some kind of move to balance out the roster. Right now the Leafs have Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Rielly and Anderson going at a good level, that's 5 top end guys at different positions just like teams that you're describing that one the cup.

You talk about players peaking at the right time, yet you have Matthews at 22 playing like one of the best in the league, Marner still young playing high end hockey to start the season, Tavares in his prime, Rielly at 24 years old off to a torrid start and then the goalie. What more do you want?

In terms of money, I think Matthews wants nothing less than the maximum amount he can negotiate. We are talking about a player who for his last year of junior hockey, before the draft, played in Europe so he could get paid. He realizes his talent, and is looking to maximize the money he can make with that talent.


Sure, you may be seeing things right in terms of what Matthews and him wanting to be paid as such. That's fine and the Leafs should pony up, it's pretty simple. You don't trade a HOF player at 21-22 because of money, you figure out the money with the other guys, not Matthews.

In terms of how you go about signing your top players, as I said before, you focus on your best first and then go down the line (like Edmonton did with McDavid and Draisaitl). You lock up the players that matter most first, Matthews, Marner, then Nylander, if there is money left. You don't work in reverse.


That philosophy works but that doesn't mean that isn't the Leafs intentions. Right now, they are trying to figure out how to get these guys to take small cuts to fit everyone in. If guys aren't willing to do so, they'll sign Matthews and Marner and move on from Nylander and it will still fit a big chunk of their core all together in their prime and competing.


With all of the messages coming out from Leafs management or media controlled by them, it is all about reading between the lines.

When Shanahan came out publicly with the comments about taking less to win, usually coming out publicly to challenge the players means things are not going well behind the scenes. Why embarrass your players publicly with comments like that, unless you are sure they are going to take less to win. If they are not, it just paints them as greedy, which is probably the strategy.


This is typical Toronto reaction, you're stuck in conspiracy world. Shanahan is sending a message, the team is using the media that is owned by the team. How about simply stating the Leafs position on things, that they are still in negotiations but outlining their expectations. Nothing he said in recent interviews is any different than what we believed. And nothing he said embarassed anyone. This is your interpretation taking things to the extreme.

And the way the players responded ("our agents will deal with the negotiations") is classic we won't be pushed around.

I think the way the media has been talking up Marner's value, is setting him up to look like he'll eventually take 'less' to win. Last year folks probably had Marner and Nylander pegged at about $6M per year (like Ehlers). They have been talking up Marner's value to like $10M, which means if he signs for $8M or $9M, he still looks like he is taking less.

I think the plan was to sign Marner as well this past offseason. It was also probably the reason they started Marner on the 4th line last year, to suppress his scoring totals, leading into this past summer. They did the same thing with Kadri and Rielly, before they signed their RFA deals.

The season before Kadri signed was when they were all over him about his attitude, combined with the lack of talent around him that kept his numbers suppressed. In 2013-14 he had 20 goals and 50 pts; the following two seasons he had under 20 goals and under 50 pts, which led into him signing April 2016. Then after signing, the following season he is all of a sudden playing with talent and on the power play and producing 30+ goal seasons and over 55 to 61 pt seasons.

With Rielly, the year before he signed his RFA deal, they essentially kept him off the powerplay to keep his numbers down going into negotiations. The message at the time was Rielly needed to work on his 'defensive' responsibilities. They kept it like that for a year after he signed (April 2016) as well, probably to not make it look as obvious as what they did to Kadri. In 2015-16 and 2016-17, Rielly has only 6 and 4 assists on the powerplay. In 2017-18, when he becomes the primary quarterback on the powerplay, it goes up to 24 assists.


This is just more of the buying in to the conspiracy theory stuff. The leafs stuck Marner on the 4th line to drive down his value. How about simply the fact that Marner wasn't playing to the standards the coach wanted. There's no big conspiracy here and Kadri had a poor attitude and Rielly hadn't done much because they were poor teams and he was still developing.

Based on Kypreos' comments that other day about Nashville being a potential target, possibly considering moving Subban (Kypreos' was talking in the context of Nylander; but no way Nashville moves Subban for Nylander), my guess is the Leafs management is floating the idea of trying to go after Subban (because there is probably nothing that comes out of Kypreos' mouth that is not spoon fed to him by Leafs management).

Nashville presents an interesting scenario:
- Matthews, Nylander and Gardiner for Subban, Johansen and two 1st round picks (to help account for the age difference)


So what you're saying the Leafs want to be a worse team than they are now and will trade the star player they tanked for. Subban and Johansen do not make this team better.

Subban is locked into 4 remaining years at a respectable number $9M (which takes him through age 29 to 33). His deal comes up the same year Rielly's deal comes up. So you could see a shift in the cap hit from Subban to Rielly, as Rielly gets paid more for his prime years (age 28+), while Subban could sign an extension that front ends the money, and lowers the cap hit, keeping him around for age 33+ and beyond, until he develops a long-term injury, to get him off the books in the final years of his deal.

Johansen's deal is also fairly reasonable for a 2nd line center at $8M per year for 7 more years, taking him to age 33 (ends the same year as Tavares' deal, who would be 35 at the end of his deal). So for the next 7 years your 1st and 2nd line centers are locked up. The 3rd line center (Kadri) is locked up for another 4 years, at which time they would not extend him - Kadri will be looking for a huge pay day at age 32 to make up for his current under value contract.

This would leave money available to give Marner and Kapanen long-term deals, and possibly keep Marleau for next year, as well as extend him another year or two, if healthy enough. Or they could look to another veteran looking to win a cup in the back-end of his career.

Essentially, the core would be locked up: Tavares, Marner, Johansen, Subban and Rielly for a long time, and hopefully they can find another goaltender after Andersen's deal expires in 3 years, to continue the contender status (maybe Malcolm Subban might find himself a UFA 3 years from now?).

There would be no drop-off in the powerplay, as Subban slots in beside Rielly, with Tavares, Marner and Kadri up front.

Who knows.....


Sorry but everything your suggesting from this point on is purely out of fear of paying Matthews 16 million which hasn't happend and you're locking yourself in to being a worse team than you would be.

Pay Matthews his money and have your career leaf in place that will hopefully bring a championship back to Toronto and go in to the HOF. I mean should Pittsburgh have dealt one of Crosby or Malkin or Fleury before out of some fear.

Also, just jumping back to Edmonton for a second. They have no choice but to pay the max out to a guy like McDavid. They are never going on the FA market and landing a Tavares. The Leafs situation and Edmonton's situation should never be compared because theres too many variables at play. Just becase Matthews hasn't signed before RFA doesn't mean anything in terms of what the Leafs are negotiating, just as Kyper going on the radio and talking about some random trade with Nashville and Subban and you jumping to the conclusion that it has to be Matthews for him.

Take a step back and think about what you're tryign to convey here. That the Leafs can't have Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Rielly, Kadri and Andersson signed long-term because of Matthews 16 million that you fear so you're going to trade your star for lesser players in other positions to balance out the money. In hopes that the team will be as good based on balance vs having the best talent possible. This doesn't sound like a good philosophy to winning a cup.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#33 » by whysoserious » Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:50 pm

JB7 wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:They would just sign him for 16 or whatever ridiculous number was out there. They wouldn't pre-emptively trade him on the assumption that he would blow their cap. They would trade Tavares before they traded Matthews. The savings would always always come from somewhere else when you have an elite player at that age. Think of how many superstars have been moved early in their career in the cap era? Just draw on that record before worrying about what Kypreos is blabbling about to fill his hundred hours of air time a season.


Tavares has a NMC. There is no way he would allow them to move him months into signing him.

The league has changed dramatically with the cap restrictions. Young players are realizing they need to get paid during their productive years, because they are not getting paid past their prime as they did in previous seasons.

It is all about making your money while you can, and Matthews at 22 next year will be going into some of his most productive years.

So if the Leafs are serious about winning a cup, holding onto a superstar costing you max might negate that dream...

In the past, with no cap, teams could pay whatever was necessary to keep their players. If there was no cap, the Leafs would have signed all of these guys to massive deals by now. They clearly have the money to do so. That was why young superstars never moved. There was never a salary cap to worry about.


You say at the end here that young superstars never moved pre-cap era, show me the number that have moved in the cap era?
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#34 » by ATLTimekeeper » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:06 pm

Stars are still getting paid past their prime. Young superstars never move in the cap era. The league isn't changing that much. The difference teams will sell off decent talent at a discount to alleviate the cap. They don't sell off young stars for that reason.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#35 » by JB7 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:28 pm

Pay Matthews his money and have your career leaf in place that will hopefully bring a championship back to Toronto and go in to the HOF. I mean should Pittsburgh have dealt one of Crosby or Malkin or Fleury before out of some fear.


The penguins won with Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Fluery early on in their career, then when they needed to sign them all, they could not afford Staal and he was moved, and they didn't win again until the cap had grown large enough that they could incorporate other players, like Kessel, with larger deals.

Same with the Blackhawks. As the bigger deals for their core 5 started to kick in, they had to jettison the rest of their roster seriously weaken their team.

Take a step back and think about what you're tryign to convey here. That the Leafs can't have Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Rielly, Kadri and Andersson signed long-term because of Matthews 16 million that you fear so you're going to trade your star for lesser players in other positions to balance out the money. In hopes that the team will be as good based on balance vs having the best talent possible. This doesn't sound like a good philosophy to winning a cup.


The Leafs can have Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Rielly, Kadri and Andersen, but that would be all they have. Everything else would need to be stripped away: Marleau, Nylander, Kapanen, Hyman, Brown, Zaitsev, Gardiner. They would only to be able to afford players closer to $1M, to fill out the rest of the roster, which is essentially scrubs or rookies.

It is also trading one superstar and another skilled forward for a 2nd line center and a top pairing defenseman (whom are rarely traded), plus a couple of 1st round picks.

With Rielly and Subban split up for 5 on 5 (with Zaitsev and Dermott), you essentially have two strong defense pairings that would cover the bulk of the game. Rielly and Subban would each probably play around 25 minutes a game, much more than Matthews. And the more minutes Matthews gets, the less time Kadri gets, which diminishes his value.

And with the money they might have to spend on Matthews ($16M), they could have Johansen ($8M), Kapanen ($~4M), Hyman ($2M) and Brown ($2M).
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#36 » by whysoserious » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:59 pm

JB7 wrote:
The penguins won with Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Fluery early on in their career, then when they needed to sign them all, they could not afford Staal and he was moved, and they didn't win again until the cap had grown large enough that they could incorporate other players, like Kessel, with larger deals.


But the point is Staal was third on their depth chart, they didn't trade Crosby to get some balance, spread money out or get talent elsewhere, they traded the least valuable guy, not the most valuable guy as you're suggesting.

Same with the Blackhawks. As the bigger deals for their core 5 started to kick in, they had to jettison the rest of their roster seriously weaken their team.


Again, they paid their main guys and jettisoned the lesser guys not what you're suggesting at all here.

The Leafs can have Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Rielly, Kadri and Andersen, but that would be all they have. Everything else would need to be stripped away: Marleau, Nylander, Kapanen, Hyman, Brown, Zaitsev, Gardiner. They would only to be able to afford players closer to $1M, to fill out the rest of the roster, which is essentially scrubs or rookies.


No they wouldn't. In time some guys will come off the cap like Marleau and other guys will slot in. You're rushing a decision. It will cost them some guys along the way, no doubt about. If all these guys don't take the pay cuts, there will be impact but you don't trade your top player out of fear of that, you move on from the lesser guys - the Gardiners and Nylanders can go.


It is also trading one superstar and another skilled forward for a 2nd line center and a top pairing defenseman (whom are rarely traded), plus a couple of 1st round picks.


You've suggested a trade option but that team is worse, Subban is good but he's not elevating us to anything the way Matthews can and Johannsen isn't good enough either. This deal is a straight downgrade of the Leafs even if you've added talent in other areas of need and two late first round picks don't help much.

With Rielly and Subban split up for 5 on 5 (with Zaitsev and Dermott), you essentially have two strong defense pairings that would cover the bulk of the game. Rielly and Subban would each probably play around 25 minutes a game, much more than Matthews. And the more minutes Matthews gets, the less time Kadri gets, which diminishes his value.

And with the money they might have to spend on Matthews ($16M), they could have Johansen ($8M), Kapanen ($~4M), Hyman ($2M) and Brown ($2M).


Your whole notion is based on depth throughout the roster, you don't make moves like that to spread out the money. You get the elite talent and you under pay your back end of your roster. Nothing you've stated supports even discussing trading Matthews. The team is worse in your scenario but hey the money's spread out so all good.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#37 » by BramptonYute » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:32 pm

if they can move Marleau they'll be fine. They can even move Brown or Zaitsev to save some money if necessary.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#38 » by JB7 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:52 pm

In the case of the Penguins, they won in 2009, with Staal, then didn't win again until 2016. He was a key piece they had to move because the deals given to Crosby and Malkin.

The Leafs could follow the Blackhawks model of establishing a core group, balanced between offence and defence, along with goaltending (a must).

Plus, next year, once that group (Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Rielly, Kadri and Andersen) is all signed, you would have to start immediately to jettison everyone else to make the cap work next year. The first gone would be Marleau (and the Leafs were already preparing for this as the way they structured his contract, after they pay him is signing bonus before next season, they only owe him $1.25 to pay him throughout the year - so he would be easy to move to a team with cap room, as they don't need to pay much actual salary - they just need to accommodate the $6.25M cap hit). They would probably try to keep the other large contract like Zaitsev. Gardiner, Kapanen and Nylander could not be re-signed, so they would need to trade Kapanen and Nylander, since there deals are going to be +$4M. Then the question is can they manage the contacts of Hyman and Brown, after keeping Zaitsev?

Johansen averaged a point per game the last two playoffs. And he replaces the size you lose by moving Matthews. Plus you still have a #1 in Tavares. Adding Subban is another top-pairing D. How many teams have two high-end D? Being able to roll out two high end D like Rielly and Subban every shift is a massive benefit to a team. Everything offensively is initiated by your defencemen.

These aren't insignificant pieces.

Plus Kapanen is probably a better fit with Babcock's style than Nylander, and should continue to improve with time on the top lines.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#39 » by JB7 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:14 pm

And one other point. The last two cups Pittsburgh won (2016, 2017), Crosby and Malkin were making a combined $18.2M - very team friendly deals, considering they are 2 of the top 4 centers in the game.
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Re: Tavares a Financial mistake for Leafs? 

Post#40 » by whysoserious » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:02 pm

JB7 wrote:And one other point. The last two cups Pittsburgh won (2016, 2017), Crosby and Malkin were making a combined $18.2M - very team friendly deals, considering they are 2 of the top 4 centers in the game.


Yes, but they are well in to their careers, not in their ultimate prime and early days. League is different now, young guys get paid.

Johansen is a solid player, he may have some solid playoffs but he's not Matthews and has no chance of being on the same level of what Matthews is going to be for his career. This is a generational talent, one the Leafs waited for for over a decade to get back in cup challenging territory and your going on and on about trading him for lesser talent, spread out the money, I really don't understand this notion at all.

The Oilers aren't winning with McDavid, why don't they trade him? The Capitals didn't win forever with Ovy, should they have traded him?

It took the Penguins a long time to get back to winning a cup, thats the cost of doing business in the league but that doesn't mean you jettison all time great players.

The Leafs need Matthews, they don't need Nylander and the lesser guys to fit in Subban, Johansen like you're suggesting because then they aren't on the level of the contenders even in the conference. Matthews puts them there, pay him his money and move on. Work out the money with everyone else.

I literally cannot believe this is a discussion, it's honestly one of the dumbest things I've heard from Leafs fans.

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