OT: Russia-Ukraine War

[Zenzibar]

Anti-war protesters in Moscow

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[thebuzzardman]

If I hurt any Biden supporter during my last post, please accept my apology. As an non-American, please also understand I am not that deep into the game of pro or anti-Trump or pro or anti-DP agenda.

The real problem is, Russian aggression was there for decades. Ukraine is not the first victim, Georgia is.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

Back in 2008, well Georgia was mickey mouse country and at that time George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were in the white house. They let go, say a few words and split a portion of Georgia into an unrecognized South Ossetia.

Then there is Crimea in 2014, and now.

As you can see the appetite of Putin will just get bigger and bigger, while we are all waiting him to go to a better place than Earth, but his successor can simply pick up the plan and go on.

While some of us have mentioned the sanction, the consequence is now weaker than before as there is another option called PRC. The scale of economy of China has grown in 15 times in between 2000 to 2021, so while US's sanction can cover most of the countries spending USD, Russia is not so isolated from the world economy besides the gas deal. Or to go further, even if EU cut ties of with Russia, they can still do business with China to stay alive.

And for what USA can do to stop Putin, I would suggest them to take lessons from ...... China, while in a good way.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_War:_How_China_Took_Over_While_America%27s_Elite_Slept

General Spalding has mentioned a book called "Unrestricted warfare", which was written by PLA strategist in 1999, to give advice to China on how to fight silently against USA without bloodshed. Technology, economy, intelligence, propaganda and lots of other non-military actions can be useful.

Finally, I was saddened by the fact that some of posters above would think that my stance is for American soldiers to lose their lives for Hong Kong. No, never in the world I would think in this way. Even for how much I love this place, I am still alive and not leaving, unlike many of my friends and relatives. They chose to give up and start a new life elsewhere. I am thankful for the democratic world like UK, Canada and Australia to absorb them as immigrants.

Yet we tried to support Georgia, as much as we could.

I know. I had a friend who worked for a certain "private" airline that carried cargo to the country.
He wasn't flying. I believe he was a crew chief or whatever the term is.
The cargo consisted of US cash and 5.56 ball ammunition.
Oh, and 7.62.
The Georgians were much more interested in the ammo than the cash according to my friend.

[Pointgod]

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[Zenzibar]

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[Pointgod]

I don't have a strong grasp of the relative power of the two nations. Is this a clearly "winnable" war for Russia or could it be a quagmire for them? Will Ukraine simply cede or go the distance? Those questions certainly play into the calculus...

I don’t think there’s such thing as a winnable war. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria etc should be cautionary tales. Ukraine’s military is better equipped and funded than Iraqi insurgents or the Taliban. Not to mention you have civilians that will fight against Russia and the support form NATO. Russia might achieve their goals but not without heavy casualties. And at this point the best NATO can do without sending troops is to make it economically painful and bloody for Russia as possible.

[Stannis]

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This is the second time I've seen a post like this in this thread, and I'm not sure what the point is.

I'm not saying that is what you are saying, but I'll ask. Are you saying Ukraine shouldn't get any aid because of their Nazi history and neo-Nazi groups?

The west still aided Croatia, Bosnia and Albanians in Kosovo against Yugoslavia/Serbia even though those nations have a history of siding with Nazi Germany. Most of Eastern Europe was conquered by Nazi Germany at one point. Germany and Italy were the actual fascist states conquering and making puppet countries (Ukraine). Nazi Germany couldn't have held France for so long if it wasn't for Vichy France. I'm not sure why Western Europe gets a pass for this while it's usually Eastern Europe that gets labeled as Neo-Nazis all the time.

If you ever been to these Western Europe nations recently, you'd see the outright racism. Neo-Nazism is a problem, but not at all unique to Ukraine. And I don't see how letting Russia gain more territories would be any better for the world if your aim is to fight neo-Nazi ideologies.

In the end, who do you think is actually pushing this Ukraine = neo-Nazi narrative? With most of people here believing in Russian hackers/bots/collusion (including me) & when Putin says he wants to de-Nazify Ukraine; who do you think is really pushing this narrative? Can we really not put two and two together here???

Ukrainians are still innocent citizens for the most part and are getting bombed. Hearts out to them, and I hope the west aids them. I know they can't send troops. But hopefully they are supplied with food and equipment as I don't see the Ukrainians abandoning their homes.

[Stannis]

I want the people who are blaming this on Biden to tell me exactly what Trump would've done so much better

I can only speak for myself here. But I don't think Biden did a good job here, but that does not mean I think Trump was better.

EDIT: People have the right to be disappointed in Biden here. When you consider the merits on his election, that Trump was/is a Russian asset and Biden will take a strong stance against Russia/Putin... What's happening now is not a good look at all. When Russian troops were already in Ukraine, the White House was still debating if this was considered an invasion or not...

I think the west in general dropped the ball. If you want to get Ukraine in NATO, they've should've had troops in Ukraine and be prepared for battle. Which I get is dangerous (WW3 potential). But trying to get Ukraine in NATO and expecting no Russian retaliation was not very forward thinking. Anyways, I think those were the only two choices (rally up and get Ukraine in NATO, or don't).

[Stannis]

I'm being overly dramatic here, I know... But honestly, Ukraine has no nukes, Russia does.

If the west arms Ukraine, and they are putting up a good fight via guerrilla warfare and defending themselves... And maybe even pull a Vietnam vs USA. What's stopping Russia from just nuking them out of frustration?

[Marty McFly]

I'm being overly dramatic here, I know... But honestly, Ukraine has no nukes, Russia does.

If the west arms Ukraine, and they are putting up a good fight via guerrilla warfare and defending themselves... And maybe even pull a Vietnam vs USA. What's stopping Russia from just nuking them out of frustration?

mutually assured destruction.

[HarthorneWingo]

I'm being overly dramatic here, I know... But honestly, Ukraine has no nukes, Russia does.

If the west arms Ukraine, and they are putting up a good fight via guerrilla warfare and defending themselves... And maybe even pull a Vietnam vs USA. What's stopping Russia from just nuking them out of frustration?

That would be very counterproductive, at best.

[HarthorneWingo]

Kyle Kulinski does a nice job of breaking down the timeline of events over the course of the night (here).

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[Stannis]

I can understand Putin’s desire to annex Crimea. I don’t understand what the plain from Ukraine to Russia has to do with his motivation.

It's about building an empire. It's not going to happen next month. But I think the long-term plan is to conquer Ukraine. Make the west believe it was there fault because they broke agreements by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Have the west sweep this conflict under the rug and basically sacrifice Ukraine to Russia. Years later, Russia eventually invades further west, maybe Romania/Hungary. Then the Balkans will go to war again. Potential Orthodox brotherhood obligations could break NATO agreements.

[semjazy]

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Bro, why you posting this ****?

First, this article intentionally ignores the fact that the Soviet Union was an ally of the Nazis until the Barbarossa operation. And they together sparked the Second World War.

Yes, in Ukraine there are elements that support the Nazi movement, but they do not influence the actions of the state and are supported by a small group of people, as in any western country. The role of Right Sector cannot be overestimated. They recived something around 2% of votes in elections in 2014 and 2019 (it should also be noted that their base is only in western Ukraine).less than the AfD received in Germany. Russia is trying to create the impression that Ukraine is ruled by them. Yeah, nazi state ruled by jew.

Secondly it's Russia who supports the far right (and far left) parties and politicians throughout the Western world (https://www.jstor.org/stable/48600543?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents). And today it was Putin who showed that Russia is a fascist state that does not allow another state to democratically choose how to organize their own country.

[semjazy]

I can understand Putin’s desire to annex Crimea. I don’t understand what the plain from Ukraine to Russia has to do with his motivation.

It's about building an empire. It's not going to happen next month. But I think the plan is to conquer Ukraine. Make the west believe it was there fault because they broke agreements by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Have the west sweep this conflict under the rug and basically sacrifice Ukraine to Russia. Years later, Russia eventually invades further west, maybe Romania/Hungary. Then the Balkans will go to war again.

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

[Stannis]

I can understand Putin’s desire to annex Crimea. I don’t understand what the plain from Ukraine to Russia has to do with his motivation.

It's about building an empire. It's not going to happen next month. But I think the plan is to conquer Ukraine. Make the west believe it was there fault because they broke agreements by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Have the west sweep this conflict under the rug and basically sacrifice Ukraine to Russia. Years later, Russia eventually invades further west, maybe Romania/Hungary. Then the Balkans will go to war again.

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

I think Poland is too close to the west. Making progress towards the Balkans might be beneficial because (1) The west will more likely let it slide over Poland. (2) There's a sizeable orthodox & Serbian population in the Balkans which could arise and join Russia.

You think the Baltic nations will join NATO while Russia is busy in Ukraine or nah?

[HarthorneWingo]

I can understand Putin’s desire to annex Crimea. I don’t understand what the plain from Ukraine to Russia has to do with his motivation.

It's about building an empire. It's not going to happen next month. But I think the plan is to conquer Ukraine. Make the west believe it was there fault because they broke agreements by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Have the west sweep this conflict under the rug and basically sacrifice Ukraine to Russia. Years later, Russia eventually invades further west, maybe Romania/Hungary. Then the Balkans will go to war again.

Baltic states, Moldova and Poland would be next. Putin delivered a clear message that he want Central Eastern Europe to be vulnerable to Russia will. He tries to rebuild the Soviet Union sphere of influence

That's the issue for NATO. What do we do if Russia takes all of Ukraine and pulls right up to Poland, etc.?

Putin logic is almost backwards. He says he wants to keep NATO from encroaching on Russia's borders but by annexing Ukraine, Russian has encroached in NATO countries, which we can construe as "an act of military aggression" on us.

[gavran]

I can understand Putin’s desire to annex Crimea. I don’t understand what the plain from Ukraine to Russia has to do with his motivation.

It's about building an empire. It's not going to happen next month. But I think the long-term plan is to conquer Ukraine. Make the west believe it was there fault because they broke agreements by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Have the west sweep this conflict under the rug and basically sacrifice Ukraine to Russia. Years later, Russia eventually invades further west, maybe Romania/Hungary. Then the Balkans will go to war again. Potential Orthodox brotherhood obligations could break NATO agreements.

There is a bigger chance Hungary invades Romania, than Russia invading either.

[Capn'O]

I don't have a strong grasp of the relative power of the two nations. Is this a clearly "winnable" war for Russia or could it be a quagmire for them? Will Ukraine simply cede or go the distance? Those questions certainly play into the calculus...

I don’t think there’s such thing as a winnable war. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria etc should be cautionary tales. Ukraine’s military is better equipped and funded than Iraqi insurgents or the Taliban. Not to mention you have civilians that will fight against Russia and the support form NATO. Russia might achieve their goals but not without heavy casualties. And at this point the best NATO can do without sending troops is to make it economically painful and bloody for Russia as possible.

From an admittedly short brief into this issue, it seems Putin is likely to fall on his own sword if we play it right.

[HarthorneWingo]

I can understand Putin’s desire to annex Crimea. I don’t understand what the plain from Ukraine to Russia has to do with his motivation.

It's about building an empire. It's not going to happen next month. But I think the long-term plan is to conquer Ukraine. Make the west believe it was there fault because they broke agreements by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Have the west sweep this conflict under the rug and basically sacrifice Ukraine to Russia. Years later, Russia eventually invades further west, maybe Romania/Hungary. Then the Balkans will go to war again. Potential Orthodox brotherhood obligations could break NATO agreements.

There is a bigger chance Hungary invades Romania, than Russia invading either.

Which country do you reside in? I forgot. Is it Hungary? I took a summer program in Rome after my first year in law school. We stayed in this pensione just down the main street from the Spanish Steps. Anyhow, there was this one young woman who was with her mom visiting Rome from Hungary. She was a stone cold fox. We started hanging out a bit when the mom and the man who ran the pensione put a stop to it. Fckers.