[2018] - DRAFT NIGHT THREAD! Currently #9, #36

[HEZI]

I can't believe people would rather take a chance on MPJ than Knox. Shyt makes no sense to me.

[Capn'O]

Because everyone is saying "well, let's compare Knox's Synergy numbers to Mikal's numbers as a freshman..."

Mikal, 98th percentile on offense, 57th catch and shoot (87th guarded), 91st in transition with a 4.4% turnover rate total and 7.7% as the lead man, and 99th percentile around the basket. 68th off ball and 70th oREB.

Knox - 69th percentile on offense, 44th on catch & shoot (33rd guarded), 49th in transition with a 19% turnover rate overall and a 23.3% turnover rate as lead man, 62nd around the basket, 58th off ball, and 65th oREB.

These numbers are kind of apples and oranges since you're comparing a low usage (~14.5%) player to a much higher usage (~24.5%) one, no? Also, Villanova is a program that champions player development whereas Kentucky's program is designed to spit out one and dones. Mikal was doing his thing in a very tight role and limited minutes.

[KnickLeDime]

I can't believe people would rather take a chance on MPJ than Knox. Shyt makes no sense to me.

I'm scared to death of MPJ, there's a kid who hasn't shown dick and can't stay healthy to save his life...

[NBA Fan 1234]

For the record, it's not everyone I think it's pretty much just me. Thank you for providing this...something to think about. Not gonna lie Mikal looks much better here.

Others have been saying it, trust me.

I'm almost more looking forward to whether or not you're right than I am the actual pick. You've been VERY clear on Knox vs Mikal for weeks.

I see the allure with Knox. I really do...but I think the bust potential is high, and I think Mikal's value right now is higher and his value long term is roughly the same. My issue mainly is with people saying that Knox is some elite scorer, when he's not...and the 3/D potential...the guy has poor defensive awareness. That's not a great start to getting into that role.

Mecca's comp of a Tobias Harris + Rip with worse defense isn't a bad one, IMO. A better RoCo, for Mikal, IMO is more conducive to winning and the same level of player, if not higher because of the defense.

What are your thoughts on Mikal on the ball defender, video shows he gets abused by anyone with any semblance of speed. In fact the scouting video's over the last few weeks that I've seen bare this out. His length helps but he appears to be pretty poor defender stopping dribble drive penetration.

I think it's overblown, to be honest. He's not Anthony Roberson on defense, but he's unbelievably smart on and off ball. If he is beaten, he uses his length really well recovering. Like, really well. Then, rotating, he does a hell of a job. Even in the post with his frame he does a better job than people think.

[King of Canada]

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CRAP I DO NOT want to see Doncic in the East. Uggggghhhhh.

[Deeeez Knicks]

Either way, gonna have to crack open some 9% beers tonight

I'll be posting my beer selection in a bit

starting off with this at least...then see what happens from there

[vallen]

There's no Knox in a Knicks jersey photoshop yet?

Y'all slacking

I don't want to see Knox in a Knicks jersey before I absolutely have to. Let me enjoy these next few hours before I hear Adam Silver officially say his name.

Well damn, the Knox hate is real strong around here

that will change 20 minutes after we draft him

[KnickLeDime]

Because everyone is saying "well, let's compare Knox's Synergy numbers to Mikal's numbers as a freshman..."

Mikal, 98th percentile on offense, 57th catch and shoot (87th guarded), 91st in transition with a 4.4% turnover rate total and 7.7% as the lead man, and 99th percentile around the basket. 68th off ball and 70th oREB.

Knox - 69th percentile on offense, 44th on catch & shoot (33rd guarded), 49th in transition with a 19% turnover rate overall and a 23.3% turnover rate as lead man, 62nd around the basket, 58th off ball, and 65th oREB.

These numbers are kind of apples and oranges since you're comparing a low usage (~14.5%) player to a much higher usage (~24.5%) one, no? Also, Villanova is a program that champions player development whereas Kentucky's program is designed to spit out one and dones. Mikal was doing his thing in a very tight role and limited minutes.

I've been pushing for these numbers, at least for me it provides some context. True, it will never be true apples to apples but I still wanted to see it. Thank you again for providing...

[Dave DaButcher]

Because everyone is saying "well, let's compare Knox's Synergy numbers to Mikal's numbers as a freshman..."

Mikal, 98th percentile on offense, 57th catch and shoot (87th guarded), 91st in transition with a 4.4% turnover rate total and 7.7% as the lead man, and 99th percentile around the basket. 68th off ball and 70th oREB.

Knox - 69th percentile on offense, 44th on catch & shoot (33rd guarded), 49th in transition with a 19% turnover rate overall and a 23.3% turnover rate as lead man, 62nd around the basket, 58th off ball, and 65th oREB.

Question from someone who is not an advanced stats maven: would disparities in usage and sample size perhaps skew the results, thus making for a less useful comparison?

[New Knicks]

So porter to bulls 7. Sexton 8 Cavs. Carter Knicks 9

[NBA Fan 1234]

Because everyone is saying "well, let's compare Knox's Synergy numbers to Mikal's numbers as a freshman..."

Mikal, 98th percentile on offense, 57th catch and shoot (87th guarded), 91st in transition with a 4.4% turnover rate total and 7.7% as the lead man, and 99th percentile around the basket. 68th off ball and 70th oREB.

Knox - 69th percentile on offense, 44th on catch & shoot (33rd guarded), 49th in transition with a 19% turnover rate overall and a 23.3% turnover rate as lead man, 62nd around the basket, 58th off ball, and 65th oREB.

These numbers are kind of apples and oranges since you're comparing a low usage (~14.5%) player to a much higher usage (~24.5%) one, no? Also, Villanova is a program that champions player development whereas Kentucky's program is designed to spit out one and dones. Mikal was doing his thing in a very tight role and limited minutes.

I don't think USG matters in this context at all. Ability to hit open jumpers, ability to finish in transition and keep control of the ball, finishing ability around the basket, and ability to play off ball all have nothing to do with offensive role or minute distribution.

I agree that Nova's program focuses more on development, but that's why comparing them as freshman was important - first time playing in actual games at the college level.

[HEZI]

I can't believe people would rather take a chance on MPJ than Knox. Shyt makes no sense to me.

I'm scared to death of MPJ, there's a kid who hasn't shown dick and can't stay healthy to save his life...

Even the injury concerns aside, from a pure talent and potential standpoint it still doesn't make sense. Knox could very likely be better than him in all aspects of the game. He probably already is

[CoolKids]

49th percentile in transition with a 19% turnover rate is a real demon.

49th percentile meaning what? Serious question

In Synergy's database, he ranked in the 49th percentile in transition (which is considered "average"), but that's bad for a high level prospect. The 19% turnover rate is his turnover rate in transition. What's scarier than his turnover rate in general, is the fact that he had a 26% turnover rate RUNNING THE WING! He'd fumble the ball, make a bad pass, drive into traffic, etc so often.

Right but I still don't know what that means..49th percentile at finishing in transition?

[NBA Fan 1234]

Because everyone is saying "well, let's compare Knox's Synergy numbers to Mikal's numbers as a freshman..."

Mikal, 98th percentile on offense, 57th catch and shoot (87th guarded), 91st in transition with a 4.4% turnover rate total and 7.7% as the lead man, and 99th percentile around the basket. 68th off ball and 70th oREB.

Knox - 69th percentile on offense, 44th on catch & shoot (33rd guarded), 49th in transition with a 19% turnover rate overall and a 23.3% turnover rate as lead man, 62nd around the basket, 58th off ball, and 65th oREB.

Question from someone who is not an advanced stats maven: would disparities in usage and sample size perhaps skew the results, thus making for a less useful comparison?

Nope, see above. They're just straight player tracking stats, not anything advanced. It's what the player did in a certain role / certain play type.

[F N 11]

Spoiler:

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Top 6 picks

[NBA Fan 1234]

49th percentile meaning what? Serious question

In Synergy's database, he ranked in the 49th percentile in transition (which is considered "average"), but that's bad for a high level prospect. The 19% turnover rate is his turnover rate in transition. What's scarier than his turnover rate in general, is the fact that he had a 26% turnover rate RUNNING THE WING! He'd fumble the ball, make a bad pass, drive into traffic, etc so often.

Right but I still don't know what that means..49th percentile at finishing in transition?

Point per possession.

[TheGreenArrow]

So porter to bulls 7. Sexton 8 Cavs. Carter Knicks 9

Im taking knox over carter.

[Isiahthomass]

This reads like you cherry pick what attributes you want to assign to people to fit your narrative...guys you favor you minimize their negatives and guys you don't want to make them bigger than they are.

Just saying!

Not really, I wasn't favoring anyone when going through this. I went in with an open mind. I'm sure I missed some strengths/weaknesses on both sides but I probably felt like they weren't important enough in terms of making an impact in the league or that they can easily improve it.

You literally just put all weaknesses on Knox. I have a hard time believing you weren't favoring anybody.

I see lots of weaknesses for Michael Porter JR on his report.

[Oscirus]

Why are so many bigs being drafted so early when the games moving away from them?

[Triple C]

Look out for whoever got the Dark red suit on.

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Welp