BKlutch wrote:aq_ua wrote:HarthorneWingo wrote:
The scientists/epidemiologists are now saying that we probably won't get to "herd immunity" via vaccination (bc not enough people are getting vaccinated), which means that we'll be living with forms of COVID for a while, at least. We're still dealing with the influenza from 1918 (or whenever) but we have it down to about 40,000 deaths per year. That number could go way down if people wear their masks during flu season. I think that there were something like only 1,000 deaths from influenza which borders on eliminating it just based on masks and social distancing. I know that come the flu season this year, I'll be wearing my N95 masks when I go into stores and/or crowded areas. I have about 20 of them in a package sitting in the rear of my SUV.
To be fair, it’s not just vaccination percentages - it’s also the increased contagiousness of the virus as it mutates.But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible.
As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html
An upward moving target like that is not only tough to hit but increasingly difficult to mobilize a whole population around. This doesn’t even consider the reality that
this threshold has to be reached globally, not just in the developed economies as it is today. So, I sort of applaud the practicality of the scientific approach now to view the vaccination as a way to slow down and make the disease manageable rather than expect to entirely eliminate it.
I live in apart of the world where there is practically zero tolerance, so the slightest uptick in cases triggers lockdowns. With the world being interconnected the way it is, it’s been difficult to grasp how the apparent end goal of elimination of cases meshes with the likelihood of either full isolation from the rest of the world or global elimination of the virus. These decision trees and the ultimate “correct path” will be something worth digging through 10-15 years from now.
Agreed. We wiped out smallpox and mostly polio, but not Flu or Coronavirus. I've seen that the 25% that refuse vaccines are consistent throughout Western countries and China. So are you in Singapore, Taiwan, or Japan?
In the Sing Sing. I feel like refusal is a global phenomenon, I’ve had conversations with folk that think eating lots of fruits and vegetables provides better protection than a vaccine. Good meaning folk that otherwise seem worldly. Mask wearing has not been an issue, and the availability of disinfectant at pretty much every doorway imaginable indicates the willingness of folk to take preventative measures. Vaccines just seem to be something else for I’m sure myriad reasons. I guess we’ll have to see how it all goes.
RIP mags
