Draft Thread 2: The Electric Draftaloo

[Worst_to_First]

Well if there is any truth to the Atlanta rumors it could be because Perry and the Knicks are so sure that Durant us coming and already are planning for guys like Hunter and Reddish. But IMO it's unlikely that both would be gettable at 8 and 10.

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Moo, whats your opinion on both guys if the knicks got the nod to get a more ready player?

Between Hunter and Reddish? Hunter is more ready to fit in right away. I think his aggressive mentality and familiarity with being more of a role player will allow him to fit right away. Hunter can also shoot and his defensive ability should allow him to get big minutes. Reddish however has more NBA tools and upside than probably half a dozen guys that are projected to go ahead of him. If you can turn Reddish's switch on he could turn out to be an elite player.

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Admittedly Hunter and Reddish are tied on my draft board that it is such a dilemma for me who I would be choosing let’s say we trade down and both are available at our slot.

Hunter is closer to being Khris Middleton than Reddish is to Paul George but still the latter’s upside intrigues me.

[newyorker4ever]

At 4 I would take either Hunter or Garland. Would not take Culver. I think he's a solid all around player and all but don't think he'll be able to score enough or create enough offense to be worth taking so high.

Culver does not have an alpha personality, he has shaky handles, doesn't particularly shoot well and lacks explosiveness. That's going to work against him as an offensive impact player in the NBA. IMO the tournament exposed Culver as a guy that doesn't have the package to be a lead option on offense. Culver shot 24% from the field across the final 3 games of the tournament when he faced teams with NBA caliber defenses and opposing guards his size (and better athleticism) guarding him.

At least with Garland you get a superb shot creator, ball handler with a magic bag of ball shakes to create space, with good physical tools and a killer shot. Hunter, unlike Culver, saved his best offense for the biggest game and has all the looks of an elite defender (to go along with 3 point shooting). Hunter would be a perfect compliment piece for a Durant based Knick team.

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That's the same two guys i've been saying i'd think about even taking over Barrett but would definitely take one of Garland or Hunter at #4. I love Hunter and think he's gonna be a really good all around player.

[newyorker4ever]

At 4 I would take either Hunter or Garland. Would not take Culver. I think he's a solid all around player and all but don't think he'll be able to score enough or create enough offense to be worth taking so high. Culver does not have an alpha personality, he has shaky handles and lacks explosiveness. That's going to work against him as an offensive impact player in the NBA. At least with Garland you get a superb shot creator and ball handler with good physical tools and a killer shot. Hunter, unlike Culver, saved his best offensive for the biggest game and has all the looks of an elite defender. Hunter would be a perfect compliment piece for a Durant based Knick team.

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I really wish we could see more of Garland. That's the most intriguing skillset after Zion to me. An elite shooter (including off the dribble) with quality ball handling and passing? Sign me up.

Yeah. Too bad Garland got injured but from what he showed I'd definitely consider taking a chance at 4 for him.

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I think at the very least he's another D.Russell. The kid can definitely shoot the rock and can shoot it from 2 feet behind the NBA 3 point line. You aboslutely have to have shooters to win in this league.

[stuporman]

I have trouble seeing the validity of taking a 3&D player in the lotto, the only way I could justify it is if they are showing in college other skills that can translate at the next level.

How much better is Hunter than Schofield that he's a top 5 pick and the other will probably a 2nd rounder? Yes, measurables are little better, is younger and a better slash line this past season but enough to invest a top5 pick?

Is Hunter better than Mikal Bridges from last year? Yes, both are a solid two way player but does anyone really see either of those elevating their game to the next level like Butler or Kawhi have from their more humble 3&D beginings?

I have defended the importance of an elite 3&D player as being crucial to a title contending team many times but lotto picks are for shooting for stars with the highest ceiling/floor.

Bridges no. Hunter potentially yeah. I do see Hunter as a player that can actually be better in the NBA than in college. Never was a fan of Bridges at all. Big difference in physical talent, natural instincts and alpha mentality. No doubt in my mind that had Hunter been on another team where his role was expanded that he'd have put up much better offensive numbers and shown his ability to be a lead player. Does that mean he'll be a Butler? Nope. But I believe he has better tools to make an impact in the NBA than Culver. Other than Culver's wingspan (which is one of the things that folks can get too carried away with) I just don't see anything about him that screams NBA elite or even NBA above average. Culver is like a "Jack if all (or many) trades, master of none" type college player. Those rarely ever translate to top player in the nba. I just don't see that being worth a early lottery pick.

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I just don't see the skill set out of Hunter to think he would be an elite number 1 option in the NBA even though he may have two skills that Translate in an elite way, his defense and three-point shooting. A team is not going to be able to just give him the ball and he go gets a bucket, he's going to rely on other playmakers to create shocks for him and that makes him complementary player not a number 1 option..

When Kawhi came into the league he didn't have that ability either and he somehow developed it as awkward as it is but it is effective. I don't think it's a good idea to use a top 5 pick on a player that hasn't demonstrated that ability and just hope he miraculously develops it eventually.

[Richard4444]

Why did not Ja postpone the surgery to afer the draft? Did he get a promise from Memphis or is trying to fall to the Knicks or to the Lakers?

If he want to run away from Memphis, this is a risky strategy. He can scary Knicks and Lakers and be drafted by Cavs or Suns.

I think he got a promise from the Memphis that asked him to do the procedure ASAP.

[Huey Freeman]

Why did not Ja postpone the surgery to afer the draft? Did he get a promise from Memphis or is trying to fall to the Knicks or to the Lakers?

If he want to run away from Memphis, this is a risky strategy. He can scary Knicks and Lakers and be drafted by Cavs or Suns.

I think he got a promise from the Memphis that asked him to do the procedure ASAP.

He probably had the surgery now so he can play in Summer League, which I wouldn’t have recommended him to rush to get back on the court. The sooner he has the surgery the sooner he can get back on the court.

[Worst_to_First]

Why did not Ja postpone the surgery to afer the draft? Did he get a promise from Memphis or is trying to fall to the Knicks or to the Lakers?

If he want to run away from Memphis, this is a risky strategy. He can scary Knicks and Lakers and be drafted by Cavs or Suns.

I think he got a promise from the Memphis that asked him to do the procedure ASAP.

He probably had the surgery now so he can play in Summer League, which I wouldn’t have recommended him to rush to get back on the court. The sooner he has the surgery the sooner he can get back on the court.

Yes I think this applies to Cam Reddish as well. Both should be recovered in tine for the Summer League.

[newyorker4ever]

None of these rookies do.

I think a few do.

Hunter, Clarke, even Reddish who I'm not crazy about. You know, guys who can play defense.

Well if there is any truth to the Atlanta rumors it could be because Perry and the Knicks are so sure that Durant us coming and already are planning for guys like Hunter and Reddish. But IMO it's unlikely that both would be gettable at 8 and 10.

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Definitely not getting Hunter at 8 but maybe Reddish and i really like that Sekou Doumbouya kid but Fiz hates the euros so i guess we can count him out. Could do Reddish at 8 and take a shot with Bol Bol at 10.

[newyorker4ever]

People are wayyyy overvaluing future picks.
When you have a prospect that would be the number 1 pick in most draft classes, would you really turn that down to move back, draft average players, and gamble on getting a future average player?

Would you trade Mitch Robinson for 2 average prospects? If not, then stop fooling yourselves and underselling RJ

Just because some "draft experts" say anyone after the top 3 are average doesn't mean that that's how it will turn out to be. There's a good chance that guys like Graland, Hunter, Culver, C.White, N.Little, Reddish and others end up really good NBA players. These "draft experts" don't know what players will be good, great, bad or average.

[GONYK]

People are wayyyy overvaluing future picks.
When you have a prospect that would be the number 1 pick in most draft classes, would you really turn that down to move back, draft average players, and gamble on getting a future average player?

Would you trade Mitch Robinson for 2 average prospects? If not, then stop fooling yourselves and underselling RJ

Well, you just started off with a major fallacy.

Here are the #1 picks in the last 11 drafts

2018 Deandre Ayton
2017 Markelle Fultz
2016 Ben Simmons
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Andrew Wiggins
2013 Anthony Bennett
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose

Which draft would RJ have been #1?

There are maybe 2 drafts in the last 10 years that he could have possibly gone #1.

It gets even more dubious when you look at who was still on the board after #1.

RJ doesn't even go in the top 3-5 in the last 2 drafts, let alone #1 in most. He's probably not even going #2 in this one.

So yes, all options, including gaining more assets in a trade down scenario, should be considered.

[Richard4444]

Why did not Ja postpone the surgery to afer the draft? Did he get a promise from Memphis or is trying to fall to the Knicks or to the Lakers?

If he want to run away from Memphis, this is a risky strategy. He can scary Knicks and Lakers and be drafted by Cavs or Suns.

I think he got a promise from the Memphis that asked him to do the procedure ASAP.

He probably had the surgery now so he can play in Summer League, which I wouldn’t have recommended him to rush to get back on the court. The sooner he has the surgery the sooner he can get back on the court.

Yes I think this applies to Cam Reddish as well. Both should be recovered in tine for the Summer League.

The question is what is more important: Summer league or Draft process. Because if you have surgery now, you dont do workouts and miss the oportunity to showcase your talents. Besides, you send a wrong massage to FOs.

[robillionaire]

People are wayyyy overvaluing future picks.
When you have a prospect that would be the number 1 pick in most draft classes, would you really turn that down to move back, draft average players, and gamble on getting a future average player?

Would you trade Mitch Robinson for 2 average prospects? If not, then stop fooling yourselves and underselling RJ

Just because some "draft experts" say anyone after the top 3 are average doesn't mean that that's how it will turn out to be. There's a good chance that guys like Graland, Hunter, Culver, C.White, N.Little, Reddish and others end up really good NBA players. These "draft experts" don't know what players will be good, great, bad or average.

Yeah I don't agree, looking at past NBA drafts most players drafted in the late lottery are not "really good nba players" most don't even stick in the league and few become really good. I think there is a chance some of those guys could end up being good players but it's a small chance. The chance of the 3rd pick being really good is immensely higher, historically

[GONYK]

He probably had the surgery now so he can play in Summer League, which I wouldn’t have recommended him to rush to get back on the court. The sooner he has the surgery the sooner he can get back on the court.

Yes I think this applies to Cam Reddish as well. Both should be recovered in tine for the Summer League.

The question is what is more important: Summer league or Draft process. Because if you had surgery now, you dont do workouts and miss the oportunity to showcase your talents. Besides, you send a wrong massage to FOs.

They don't do the surgery unless they have secured a promise and want to be ready for Summer League.

[newyorker4ever]

Well if there is any truth to the Atlanta rumors it could be because Perry and the Knicks are so sure that Durant us coming and already are planning for guys like Hunter and Reddish. But IMO it's unlikely that both would be gettable at 8 and 10.

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Moo, whats your opinion on both guys if the knicks got the nod to get a more ready player?

Between Hunter and Reddish? Hunter is more ready to fit in right away. I think his aggressive mentality and familiarity with being more of a role player will allow him to fit right away. Hunter can also shoot and his defensive ability should allow him to get big minutes. Reddish however has more NBA tools and upside than probably half a dozen guys that are projected to go ahead of him. If you can turn Reddish's switch on he could turn out to be an elite player.

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Hunter also showed that he'll show up in the big games and can hit the big high pressure shots like that 3 ball he hit against J.Culver and Texas Tech in the tourney.

[robillionaire]

People are wayyyy overvaluing future picks.
When you have a prospect that would be the number 1 pick in most draft classes, would you really turn that down to move back, draft average players, and gamble on getting a future average player?

Would you trade Mitch Robinson for 2 average prospects? If not, then stop fooling yourselves and underselling RJ

Well, you just started off with a major fallacy.

Here are the #1 picks in the last 11 drafts

2018 Deandre Ayton
2017 Markelle Fultz
2016 Ben Simmons
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Andrew Wiggins
2013 Anthony Bennett
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose

Which draft would RJ have been #1?

There are maybe 2 drafts in the last 10 years that he could have possibly gone #1.

It gets even more dubious when you look at who was still on the board after #1.

RJ doesn't even go in the top 3-5 in the last 2 drafts, let alone #1 in most. He's probably not even going #2 in this one.

So yes, all options, including gaining more assets in a trade down scenario, should be considered.

Ok but even if you push that narrative aside, if you look at the #3 picks over the years you will see many good players taken there while 8-10 picks are mostly a parade of busts outside of paul george who was taken 10th in 2010.

I don't see how anybody would think you have a better chance to draft a star picking twice in the late lottery as opposed to picking 3rd

[Oscirus]

People are wayyyy overvaluing future picks.
When you have a prospect that would be the number 1 pick in most draft classes, would you really turn that down to move back, draft average players, and gamble on getting a future average player?

Would you trade Mitch Robinson for 2 average prospects? If not, then stop fooling yourselves and underselling RJ

Well, you just started off with a major fallacy.

Here are the #1 picks in the last 11 drafts

2018 Deandre Ayton
2017 Markelle Fultz
2016 Ben Simmons
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Andrew Wiggins
2013 Anthony Bennett
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose



Which draft would RJ have been #1?

There are maybe 2 drafts in the last 10 years that he could have possibly gone #1.

It gets even more dubious when you look at who was still on the board after #1.

RJ doesn't even go in the top 3-5 in the last 2 drafts, let alone #1 in most. He's probably not even going #2 in this one.

So yes, all options, including gaining more assets in a trade down scenario, should be considered.

Theres five in that list alone that Id pick Barett over without even blinking. Include the fact that if you chop off 2012 and earlier and the list still remains at 5, and I'd say trading down is a foolish endeavor for the Knicks. Im also fairly certain he'd be top 3 in the last two drafts.

[GONYK]

People are wayyyy overvaluing future picks.
When you have a prospect that would be the number 1 pick in most draft classes, would you really turn that down to move back, draft average players, and gamble on getting a future average player?

Would you trade Mitch Robinson for 2 average prospects? If not, then stop fooling yourselves and underselling RJ

Well, you just started off with a major fallacy.

Here are the #1 picks in the last 11 drafts

2018 Deandre Ayton
2017 Markelle Fultz
2016 Ben Simmons
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Andrew Wiggins
2013 Anthony Bennett
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose

Which draft would RJ have been #1?

There are maybe 2 drafts in the last 10 years that he could have possibly gone #1.

It gets even more dubious when you look at who was still on the board after #1.

RJ doesn't even go in the top 3-5 in the last 2 drafts, let alone #1 in most. He's probably not even going #2 in this one.

So yes, all options, including gaining more assets in a trade down scenario, should be considered.

Ok but even if you push that narrative aside, if you look at the #3 picks over the years you will see many good players taken there while 8-10 picks are mostly a parade of busts outside of paul george who was taken 10th in 2010.

I don't see how anybody would think you have a better chance to draft a star picking twice in the late lottery as opposed to picking 3rd

I didn't say you did, but citing historical data is pretty meaningless. It's almost like thinking if you flipped heads twice in a row, you're more likely to get tails on the third flip.

Historical data says that the #2 pick has only a 34% chance of becoming an All-Star while the 3# pick has a 49% chance. Does that mean that you should trade down every time you get the #2 pick?

If the decision makers in our front office though don't think RJ is a star, or think that there are similar level players available in the draft elsewhere, they should consider the deal.

A player going third in the draft doesn't magically make them better. There was a ton of evaluation that went into that player which made a team feel like the player they selected #3 was better than other players. The higher pick gives you access to a bigger pool, which should lead to a higher success rate with the proper evaluation process.

Conventional wisdom says that the Hawks were crazy for trading from #3 down to #5 because the historical rate of the third pick becoming an All-Star is 49% and only 31% for the fifth pick. Yet, they did the deal because they felt like Trae was as good or better as a prospect than Doncic. I don't think they are regretting it now.

[GONYK]

People are wayyyy overvaluing future picks.
When you have a prospect that would be the number 1 pick in most draft classes, would you really turn that down to move back, draft average players, and gamble on getting a future average player?

Would you trade Mitch Robinson for 2 average prospects? If not, then stop fooling yourselves and underselling RJ

Well, you just started off with a major fallacy.

Here are the #1 picks in the last 11 drafts

2018 Deandre Ayton
2017 Markelle Fultz
2016 Ben Simmons
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Andrew Wiggins
2013 Anthony Bennett
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose



Which draft would RJ have been #1?

There are maybe 2 drafts in the last 10 years that he could have possibly gone #1.

It gets even more dubious when you look at who was still on the board after #1.

RJ doesn't even go in the top 3-5 in the last 2 drafts, let alone #1 in most. He's probably not even going #2 in this one.

So yes, all options, including gaining more assets in a trade down scenario, should be considered.

Theres five in that list alone that Id pick Barett over without even blinking. Include the fact that if you chop off 2012 and earlier and the list still remains at 5, and I'd say trading down is a foolish endeavor for the Knicks. Im also fairly certain he'd be top 3 in the last two drafts.

If you say so. I sincerely doubt you'd be saying that the years those drafts actually took place, and not applying hindsight. You might take RJ over Ayton, but are you taking him over Doncic?

There have been more complete prospects who have entered the draft in the last few years.

Even by your own admission though, you're not taking him #1 in most drafts, since 5/11 isn't the majority.

[mg]

^I don't think Ja or RJ are top 5 picks in last year's draft tbh.

[robillionaire]

Well, you just started off with a major fallacy.

Here are the #1 picks in the last 11 drafts

2018 Deandre Ayton
2017 Markelle Fultz
2016 Ben Simmons
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Andrew Wiggins
2013 Anthony Bennett
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose

Which draft would RJ have been #1?

There are maybe 2 drafts in the last 10 years that he could have possibly gone #1.

It gets even more dubious when you look at who was still on the board after #1.

RJ doesn't even go in the top 3-5 in the last 2 drafts, let alone #1 in most. He's probably not even going #2 in this one.

So yes, all options, including gaining more assets in a trade down scenario, should be considered.

Ok but even if you push that narrative aside, if you look at the #3 picks over the years you will see many good players taken there while 8-10 picks are mostly a parade of busts outside of paul george who was taken 10th in 2010.

I don't see how anybody would think you have a better chance to draft a star picking twice in the late lottery as opposed to picking 3rd

I didn't say you did, but citing historical data is pretty meaningless. It's almost like thinking if you flipped heads twice in a row, you're more likely to get tails on the third flip.

Historical data says that the #2 pick has only a 34% chance of becoming an All-Star while the 3# pick has a 49% chance. Does that mean that you should trade down every time you get the #2 pick?

If the decision makers in our front office though don't think RJ is a star, or think that there are similar level players available in the draft elsewhere, they should consider the deal.

A player going third in the draft doesn't magically make them better. There was a ton of evaluation that went into that player which made a team feel like the player they selected #3 was better than other players. The higher pick gives you access to a bigger pool, which should lead to a higher success rate with the proper evaluation process.

Conventional wisdom says that the Hawks were crazy for trading from #3 down to #5 because the historical rate of the third pick becoming an All-Star is 49% and only 31% for the fifth pick. Yet, they did the deal because they felt like Trae was as good or better as a prospect than Doncic. I don't think they are regretting it now.

I still think the Hawks will come to regret it, unless they use that extra pick they got in the trade to fleece the knicks out of the 3rd pick

Time will tell