The uncomfortable "truth" about this season (Julius and RJ)

[Ghetto Gospel]

All our young players are on the same timeline as far as age goes, which is more important, and we can make decisions on them based around that. I personally hope we have a down year next year and end up in the lottery 1 more time, we need more talent and getting it is going to be difficult if we're making the playoffs.

I don't believe in Randle and wouldn't resign him, but that's just me.

the most important isn't keeping them on the same timeline. it's about keeping cheap labor (rookie deals) for as long as possible, then simultaneously signing vets right when the first rookie deal is set to expire. look at the hawks again, they signed vets the year before any of their young players got off of their rookie deal. now they get to keep all their vets and their young players so long as they're willing to dip into the luxury tax.

we can't exactly duplicate that as mitch is set to expire, we don't have a trae young level star and lost a considerable potential asset in a high end pick this year

We still have time to do that though, if we miss the playoffs next year we'll be in a better position than we are right now having made them. We can make a decision on Julius, have caproom, have an additional lottery pick and growth of our young players, the extensions for Mitch and RJ won't kick in until 2023 at the earliest (Mitch). It's Randle's extension that is the most worrisome because that starts next year, that will go on our books in the summer of 2022 if we resign him.

Mitch is 1 year ahead of RJ and he is due to get paid starting the 2022-2023 season, which means we need to move in FA next year (2021-2022) in order to maximize the way we manipulate the salary cap. we also lost a valuable pick in this years draft, and considering we aren't tanking, we wont get anything valuable next year as well. In comparison, ATL in the 2 most recent drafts had #4 and #6. It's a stark difference from what we're doing and did and it really isn't close

[bleedblue3303]

I was looking at the team's individual net ratings for the regular season and the playoffs and there's a clear, undeniable trend:

The starters were above-average in the regular season and terrible in the playoffs, whereas the bench was really good throughout the season. The starters kept us afloat and even outscored teams on average, but the bench killed teams.

Here are the top 4 net ratings on the team for the regular season and the playoffs:

Regular season: Rose, Gibson, Quickley, Burks (all bench players)
Playoffs: Obi, Burks, Quickley, Gibson (all bench players besides Gibson who started 3 out of 5 games)

Then I also thought, well if Rose had this much of an impact coming off the bench in the regular season, shouldn't the starting unit have been more effective against Atlanta once Rose moved to the starting line-up? Nope. No difference whatsoever. So is the foundation of our starting five an issue ie have a ceiling?

One must ask him/herself the question: did Julius and RJ really carry the Knicks to the #4 seed, or was the bench with IQ, Burks and Obi (and Rose in the regular season) really the biggest difference-maker? I'm aware this is not a black or white thing, and that impact is shared. Obviously, the starters played most of their minutes against the opposing teams' best fives, and the second unit played a lot of minutes against opposing benches (although Thibs staggered the minutes to some extent). The success of our bench doesn't mean that our bench players are better than our starters, or that they could replicate their success against opposing starters.

But I think this puts into perspective the impact that Randle and RJ really had. Where would the Knicks have ended with just an average bench? And are we underestimating IQ's skill set and impact because of the minutes?

The reason I ask these questions is because we're running the risk of building a treadmill team around Julius and RJ. It was glaring in the series against Atlanta how these two could not get easy baskets, and every possession seemed like a struggle, and I am starting to wonder if IQ and Obi don't have a higher upside, simply because they can create or convert more easy baskets. Neither Randle nor RJ even reached league-average in scoring efficiency, regular season or playoffs.

Randle
Regular season: +0.3 per 100 ON/OFF, 3.0 net rating, 56.7 TS% (below league-average)
Playoffs: -19.6 per 100 ON/OFF, -12.1 net rating (8th), 42.5 TS%

Barrett
Regular season: +0.4 per 100 ON/OFF, 2.7 net rating, 53.5 TS% (below league-average)
Playoffs: -14.7 per 100 ON/OFF, -10.2 net rating (7th), 48.9 TS%

So my question is: remember how the Knicks didn't amnesty Amar'e because he revitalized the franchise, and amnestied Billups instead, which took us out of the Chris Paul sweepstakes? The Knicks were emotional, and not ruthless. Amar'e was a feel-good story, so they decided to keep him. It cost them dearly in the long-run. Today I wonder if the Knicks wouldn't be repeating the same mistake by building around Julius and RJ. I'm a big RJ fan, and I've learned to appreciate and root for Julius, but I start to wonder if this might be the offseason where unpopular decisions need to be made. Just thinking out loud.

This is a great post and I find myself repeating certain statements so I apologize but I think once again its pertinent. My dream of building slowly and obtaining high draft picks till we find a few home grown stars on rookie deals will never happen. I realized there is too much money to be made for this franchise and importance to the NBA. So we need to be respectable. I feel the goal of this season was stability. It was to stay out of drama and the back pages of newspapers. Star players and free agents will come here if it's a healthy environment. Personally I would look to trade Randle to a team like golden state who has wiseman and Minnesota's FRP. But I don't think that will happen either. A disgruntled star will want to come here with our new found culture either next season or the season after. After that we will probably sign a high profile free agent, creating our own big 3 with Randle as the 3rd option. I hope this answers part of your question. I don't think the plan is to build around RJ and Randle. I'm pretty sure RJ will be dealt with draft picks for someone like Dame.

[Meat]

We can't do what the Hawks did as it's already too late. The Hawks drafted a bunch of young talented guys and right before it was their time to get paid, they paid some vets like bogdonavic so that when the young kids are up they can still sign then while dipping into the luxury cap. Our timeline is much sooner with Mitch coming up to get paid then RJ soon after. We lost this year as we will probably "miss" on this years picks as they are late.

You compare RJ to Jaylen and I don't buy it, but I will entertain it. What does a team led by Randle and Jaylen Brown get you? ultimately, it gets you a team that still needed to tank and a team that still loses in the 1st or 2nd round

In what era? In this one, the way teams are built, a team of randle/brown or randle/rj + cap space +draft capital get you looked at by the next disgruntled superstar looking to leave/form a superteam

not happening on the knicks

Why haven’t you won the lottery yet?

[Deeeez Knicks]

the most important isn't keeping them on the same timeline. it's about keeping cheap labor (rookie deals) for as long as possible, then simultaneously signing vets right when the first rookie deal is set to expire. look at the hawks again, they signed vets the year before any of their young players got off of their rookie deal. now they get to keep all their vets and their young players so long as they're willing to dip into the luxury tax.

we can't exactly duplicate that as mitch is set to expire, we don't have a trae young level star and lost a considerable potential asset in a high end pick this year

We still have time to do that though, if we miss the playoffs next year we'll be in a better position than we are right now having made them. We can make a decision on Julius, have caproom, have an additional lottery pick and growth of our young players, the extensions for Mitch and RJ won't kick in until 2023 at the earliest (Mitch). It's Randle's extension that is the most worrisome because that starts next year, that will go on our books in the summer of 2022 if we resign him.

Mitch is 1 year ahead of RJ and he is due to get paid starting the 2022-2023 season, which means we need to move in FA next year (2021-2022) in order to maximize the way we manipulate the salary cap. we also lost a valuable pick in this years draft, and considering we aren't tanking, we wont get anything valuable next year as well. In comparison, ATL in the 2 most recent drafts had #4 and #6. It's a stark difference from what we're doing and did and it really isn't close

Mitch's cap hold is only about $3mil in '22 so we can still time it where we sign free agents then go over the cap to resign him. We would have $50+mil to spend even including Randle's cap hold....or $80mil without Randle.

[Nazrmohamed]

I am more worried about RJ and my concerns with him go back since he was in Duke. His upside seems to be a bit limited. Good player no doubt, but I don’t really see that all star talent that others see in him. More of a 3 and D guy with inconsistent defense.

My concerns with Randle have to do more from a mental standpoint that talent wise. He’s had phenomenal games during the season where he’s looked like Kawhi lite and was just unguardable. I don’t know if the crowd got to him in the playoffs, first playoffs jitters, or the Hawks just did a really good job of shutting him down but I still believe in his capabilities as a player.

Now with all of that said, both RJ and Randle are still good complimentary pieces to keep. But we need a true #1 option. We won’t reach anywhere until we get one.

You may end up right but when you consider his level of improvement from yr 1 to yr 2, it's still too soon to make that decision especially at his age barring some trade that you'd probably do even if you were happy with his play. He isn't untouchable if that's what you're asking but it's not like you wake up and say "damn, I gotta trade RJ today". More like "I'm always willing to listen".

But hes young, he did improve. This was his first playoff at 20 and it's not like he disappeared, he just played poorly.

We don't have a PG any of us consider adequate. Idk how that could just be brushed aside. It's not simply a player who's good. Rose scored like 22pts/game and it was useless. I'm talking about a guy who creates good baskets for teammates, creates a flow and pace and who themselves can shoot and help spread the floor. Doesn't mean RJ and Julius are great players despite the lack of a PG. But I'd rather judge players when a PG is in place and then hey......."I gave you everything you need and you still failed me"

[ENYK]

You're letting your dislike of RJ cloud your argument, you have no stats to back up your assumption that he's a terrible finisher, he shot 61% at the rim, for comparison sake Morant shot 64%, Jaylen Brown shot 63% his second year (a year older than RJ), Booker shot 58% his second year. RJ's finishing is well within the range of what you expect from a 2nd year wing, could he improve, yes but saying he's one of the worst just means you have an axe to grind.


My hopes in him are based on simply comparing him to other wing players, I posted a thread about wing players in their first and second years, and it seems most of you think every all-star wing came out the gate like KD, LeBron and Luka when it's quite the opposite. I will keep going back to Jaylen Brown over and over again, it's almost comical how some of you can't see that his numbers and role on the team look eerily similar to Browns first 3 years, for instance Jaylen Brown had a 13.6 PER his second season while being a year older than RJ. So, just going by the stats you're using you would have wanted to trade Jaylen, because his PER, finishing and PnR stats are almost identical to RJs. We're much more likely to turn RJ into a 20-23ppg, 7rpg and 5apg player than we are trading him for Fox or Suggs.

We can focus on all our young players, like the Hawks did with theirs. The only thing that matters is how the front office views RJ, and if they're looking at RJ's numbers or have an analytics department they'll see the same exact things I'm seeing. Which is there's a playmaking slasher in there that can live off PnR but has been mostly utilized as a catch and shoot floor spacer, the day we figure out how to use RJ on the ball more is the day he blossoms.

We can't do what the Hawks did as it's already too late. The Hawks drafted a bunch of young talented guys and right before it was their time to get paid, they paid some vets like bogdonavic so that when the young kids are up they can still sign then while dipping into the luxury cap. Our timeline is much sooner with Mitch coming up to get paid then RJ soon after. We lost this year as we will probably "miss" on this years picks as they are late.

You compare RJ to Jaylen and I don't buy it, but I will entertain it. What does a team led by Randle and Jaylen Brown get you? ultimately, it gets you a team that still needed to tank and a team that still loses in the 1st or 2nd round

All our young players are on the same timeline as far as age goes, which is more important, and we can make decisions on them based around that. I personally hope we have a down year next year and end up in the lottery 1 more time, we need more talent and getting it is going to be difficult if we're making the playoffs.

I don't believe in Randle and wouldn't resign him, but that's just me.

Okay, now what you're saying makes more sense. RJ is a fine building block, but the Knicks just have to acknowledge that they don't have that top guy and re-signing Randle and going into win-now mode isn't how you get that guy.

It just sucks that next year's draft is supposed to be very weak, and full of frontcourt players.

[thebuzzardman]

Knicks should trade Randle and RJ and try to build around real players. Send Obi Lance Thomas away as well.

How good is a team going to be that features bootleg Giannis and bootleg Middleton on it?

[Oscirus]

Knicks should trade Randle and RJ and try to build around real players. Send Obi Lance Thomas away as well.

How good is a team going to be that features bootleg Giannis and bootleg Middleton on it?

So you want them building around bootleg lou williams?

[thebuzzardman]

Knicks should trade Randle and RJ and try to build around real players. Send Obi Lance Thomas away as well.

How good is a team going to be that features bootleg Giannis and bootleg Middleton on it?

So you want them building around bootleg lou williams?

IQ? They can trade him too!

[BowlRips]

RJ makes me uncomfortable for the simple fact that he's far too content to disappear for entire quarters or halves. I really want him to pan out but there's something very disconcerting about a guy who is clearly supposed to be the second option continually deferring like he's the 6th. We see tiny flashes of a dog in him where he's had some big quarters or halves but he very rarely puts together 4 quarters of good, assertive basketball and even at his young age it's concerning from a mentality standpoint.

People have described and analyzed RJ in many ways, but one thing I have not heard is that he is "content" and have questions about his "mentality".
Is he going to be a bonifide all-star? He is still a flawed prospect? Whats his true ceiling? These are legitimate qualms. His mentality is not one of them.

[Oscirus]

Knicks should trade Randle and RJ and try to build around real players. Send Obi Lance Thomas away as well.

How good is a team going to be that features bootleg Giannis and bootleg Middleton on it?

So you want them building around bootleg lou williams?

IQ? They can trade him too!

Then who are we building around?

[thebuzzardman]

So you want them building around bootleg lou williams?

IQ? They can trade him too!

Then who are we building around?

Who knows. Knicks took a step onto the treadmill, time to get off while the getting is good.

[BowlRips]

the most important isn't keeping them on the same timeline. it's about keeping cheap labor (rookie deals) for as long as possible, then simultaneously signing vets right when the first rookie deal is set to expire. look at the hawks again, they signed vets the year before any of their young players got off of their rookie deal. now they get to keep all their vets and their young players so long as they're willing to dip into the luxury tax.

we can't exactly duplicate that as mitch is set to expire, we don't have a trae young level star and lost a considerable potential asset in a high end pick this year

We still have time to do that though, if we miss the playoffs next year we'll be in a better position than we are right now having made them. We can make a decision on Julius, have caproom, have an additional lottery pick and growth of our young players, the extensions for Mitch and RJ won't kick in until 2023 at the earliest (Mitch). It's Randle's extension that is the most worrisome because that starts next year, that will go on our books in the summer of 2022 if we resign him.

Mitch is 1 year ahead of RJ and he is due to get paid starting the 2022-2023 season, which means we need to move in FA next year (2021-2022) in order to maximize the way we manipulate the salary cap. we also lost a valuable pick in this years draft, and considering we aren't tanking, we wont get anything valuable next year as well. In comparison, ATL in the 2 most recent drafts had #4 and #6. It's a stark difference from what we're doing and did and it really isn't close

Re: We lost a valuable pick in this years draft -

Through this highly competitive season, the Knicks assets as whole increased far more then the difference between the 19th pick and the 8th pick. C

[Deeeez Knicks]

If people don't have the stomach to handle developing RJ, then they probably wont have the patience to handle developing the next guy either and they will be the first to turn on Quickley.

[thebuzzardman]

If people don't have the stomach to handle developing RJ, then they probably wont have the patience to handle developing the next guy either and they will be the first to turn on Quickley.

I've decided to get out in front of turning on Quickley.

RJ they should trade while he still has that new player smell, and before the league realizes he'll be a stiff robot for his entire career.

[Jimmit79]

If people don't have the stomach to handle developing RJ, then they probably wont have the patience to handle developing the next guy either and they will be the first to turn on Quickley.

It's not about patience it's his lack of talent that's concerning. Shooting wide open 3s has nothing to do with athleticism skill or handle.

Sent from my HD1905 using Tapatalk

[Reign23]

neither shot that. They both shot 41%. Good for you for thinking one season is enough of a sample to consider both great three point shooters.

What's 4 divided by 9? So unless my calculator is wrong, it's .444444. Also I think 72 games is a very large sample size. It's kinda weird that you don't.

4/9ths

In all seriousness, I think the general consensus is a 2 season sample when it comes to 3pt shooting, which would have Randle at 36% and RJ at 37% over their last 2 years

Which is more realistic than expecting 40% from them long term, and while not great, certainly good enough that you don't have to worry about it.

absolutely this.

[Deeeez Knicks]

If people don't have the stomach to handle developing RJ, then they probably wont have the patience to handle developing the next guy either and they will be the first to turn on Quickley.

It's not about patience it's his lack of talent that's concerning. Shooting wide open 3s has nothing to do with athleticism skill or handle.

Sent from my HD1905 using Tapatalk

RJ has talent. He just needs to continue to develop it. He took some big leaps in year 2. He was not even drafted for his 3 point shooting. It was one of his biggest weakness and he made massive strides there. His potential was always based on all the other things he can do. Now people are saying that shooting is the only thing he can do.

By no mean is he a finished product and has to work on some other things. This happens to many young players where they continue getting better in years 3, 4, 5, etc. It can take some time to put it all together. Not even saying he will def be a star. Nobody really knows...just that its not out of the question if he can continue getting better.

[ENYK]

If people don't have the stomach to handle developing RJ, then they probably wont have the patience to handle developing the next guy either and they will be the first to turn on Quickley.

I've decided to get out in front of turning on Quickley.

RJ they should trade while he still has that new player smell, and before the league realizes he'll be a stiff robot for his entire career.

IQ has a modern NBA game... He performed very well in limited minutes and the skillset is the prototype 2021 combo guard... Floaters in the lane, step back threes, good handle, quick. I think IQ is at the very least a nice building block. If given room to grow, I see more potential to develop into a legit high level offensive option than RJ.

Now is the time to sell high on RJ, agreed... Especially if it gets you into the top 4 in this year's draft. Having a good mentality is nice, but he's also super slow-footed and not explosive... weak handles... I just don't see the upside.

[3toheadmelo]

I am more worried about RJ and my concerns with him go back since he was in Duke. His upside seems to be a bit limited. Good player no doubt, but I don’t really see that all star talent that others see in him. More of a 3 and D guy with inconsistent defense.

My concerns with Randle have to do more from a mental standpoint that talent wise. He’s had phenomenal games during the season where he’s looked like Kawhi lite and was just unguardable. I don’t know if the crowd got to him in the playoffs, first playoffs jitters, or the Hawks just did a really good job of shutting him down but I still believe in his capabilities as a player.

Now with all of that said, both RJ and Randle are still good complimentary pieces to keep. But we need a true #1 option. We won’t reach anywhere until we get one.

You may end up right but when you consider his level of improvement from yr 1 to yr 2, it's still too soon to make that decision especially at his age barring some trade that you'd probably do even if you were happy with his play. He isn't untouchable if that's what you're asking but it's not like you wake up and say "damn, I gotta trade RJ today". More like "I'm always willing to listen".

But hes young, he did improve. This was his first playoff at 20 and it's not like he disappeared, he just played poorly.

We don't have a PG any of us consider adequate. Idk how that could just be brushed aside. It's not simply a player who's good. Rose scored like 22pts/game and it was useless. I'm talking about a guy who creates good baskets for teammates, creates a flow and pace and who themselves can shoot and help spread the floor. Doesn't mean RJ and Julius are great players despite the lack of a PG. But I'd rather judge players when a PG is in place and then hey......."I gave you everything you need and you still failed me"

Yeah I mean I am not looking to trade him unless it’s something you can’t turn down, like a Tatum or Luka trade. So I am definitely willing to be patient with him. I am just a bit concerned about his ceiling. Seems like people are comparing him to Middleton and that’s not a good sign, considering how bad Middleton has looked in these playoffs against Brooklyn . But I agree, we should definitely get both RJ and Randle an actual PG before making any decisions on them.