cgmw wrote:kneega wrote:I don't want to get into a complicated and irrelevant discussion with you.
If I'm Kroenke Melo has to either sign the extension pre 24th or he gets traded. Obviously if Melo is going to remain a Nugget then you don't trade him. However, he has made it clear for 8 months that he doesn't intend to sign TWO extension much less one. Therefore, you ask him one last time if he will commit pre 24th and if he refuses you trade him. You don't play guessing games when all signs are pointing to you losing...
At the end of the day, I think you're right. Kroenke will have to cut his losses. But there's a flipside that often gets ignored. I'll attempt to break it down mathematically (values not accurate, just being used for illustration):
A = Nuggets value with Carmelo
B = Nuggets value if Carmelo traded
C = Nuggets team value if Carmelo walks away for no compensation
A = $300 million
B = $225 million
C = $224 million
If you were the owner, would you really care about the difference between B & C? Or would you do everything you possibly could to get choice A?
Yes, Carmelo has turned them down ten times before. But by letting the deadline pass, Kroenke could play a high-stakes game of chicken by trying to call Melo's bluff. Nothing could be worth more to the value of his franchise between February and July than the opportunity to convince Melo to stay.
That's the devil's advocate argument that never seems to play on this board. To me it's very logical, and probably our biggest concern. Now this obviously doesn't mean Carmelo would sign that extension, but I for one wouldn't be shocked if he did.
Ok lets go down that "game of chicken path"...
!. Franchise tag - it's a myth because Melo can opt out before the current CBA expires.
2. Lets just assume there is a "lock out". Even if Melo is extended and stays in Denver- he won't get paid until it's resolved.
3. That leaves the theory that Melo will lose a ton of money if he hits free agency and the max deal numbers change. Give me a reasonable difference and lets discuss that. I personally believe it's not going to be that significant.
4. Did I miss anything else?
That being said, I just don't see what Melo has to be afraid of. Therefore, this "game of chicken" argument is hollow IMO...
Your thoughts?