2020 Presidential Election Thread: The Homestretch... Still

[SelbyCobra]

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[Clyde_Style]

Mail in voting is great.

Oh man, I'm on pins and needles right now. I'd managed to curb my emotions on this pretty well until today.

I just couldn't risk it being in FL, but in the future I hope it will be without issues.

You still feeling good about the Villages?

Why? Have you seen reporting from there today?

[GONYK]

I just couldn't risk it being in FL, but in the future I hope it will be without issues.

You still feeling good about the Villages?

Why? Have you seen reporting from there today?

Some. So far, Sumter might be lagging 2016, which would be great.

[Pointgod]

Here are the numbers from Florida.gov for VBM + EV. Dems ahead approx 673,000 with VBM and Reps ahead by approx 558,000 with EV. That leaves Dems with a 115,000 advantage going into today.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

They are getting absolutely annihilated right now the Reps are 280,000 election day votes ahead. The latest R-D numbers are Reps +170,007. That number is VBM+EV+ED. It's the complete total.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

So you did all that analysis only to arrive at the same number? The point is that Republicans really have to run up the score because Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 112,000 votes. You have to factor that Biden is going to take a higher percentage of Republican votes than Trump will take Democratic votes, then if you have Unaffiliated voters leaning Biden that leaves a smaller margin of error for Republicans which means they need a higher turnout. That’s why you have Republicans encouraging election day get out the vote.

I'm sorry but there is no possible way you are getting more votes from us than we are from you. You'll see.

But sure, if everything breaks your way by enough of a margin you can do anything.

This is from the early vote in Florida. Heavy caveat that the in person vote could very well be different but how much different? Things will tighten up but depending on the % or early vote vs Election Day voting it might not matter.

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[Clyde_Style]

You still feeling good about the Villages?

Why? Have you seen reporting from there today?

Some. So far, Sumter might be lagging 2016, which would be great.

I saw that 80% of the votes there had been cast early.

I know some want to peg it on size of turnout, but in this case I'd say it is hard to predict based on that alone. It still would not predict how much support Trump lost in the villages. So, even if Trump still holds the majority there, a change from something like 65%/35% to 55%/45% could mean a net gain for Democrats of 10-15,000 votes vs. 2016 if we're assuming this is a voting pool of around 120,000 voters.

So turnout is part of the story, but the shift is the bigger one IMO

[Pointgod]

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If it wasn’t for the racism, Fox News would have nothing to offer the world.

[GONYK]

Why? Have you seen reporting from there today?

Some. So far, Sumter might be lagging 2016, which would be great.

I saw that 80% of the votes there had been cast early.

I know some want to peg it on size of turnout, but in this case I'd say it is hard to predict based on that alone. It still would not predict how much support Trump lost in the villages. So, even if Trump still holds the majority there, a change from something like 65%/35% to 55%/45% could mean a net gain for Democrats of 10-15,000 votes vs. 2016 if we're assuming this is a voting pool of around 120,000 voters.

So turnout is part of the story, but the shift is the bigger one IMO

I'm talking about R vote share, not turnout. They may not hit the 68% Trump got last time. Right now, registered R's are stuck at 59% of ballots cast. Unless Indies break for Trump hard, Biden might break 33% there, which would be incredible.

[Clyde_Style]

Some. So far, Sumter might be lagging 2016, which would be great.

I saw that 80% of the votes there had been cast early.

I know some want to peg it on size of turnout, but in this case I'd say it is hard to predict based on that alone. It still would not predict how much support Trump lost in the villages. So, even if Trump still holds the majority there, a change from something like 65%/35% to 55%/45% could mean a net gain for Democrats of 10-15,000 votes vs. 2016 if we're assuming this is a voting pool of around 120,000 voters.

So turnout is part of the story, but the shift is the bigger one IMO

I'm talking about R vote share, not turnout. They may not hit the 68% Trump got last time. Right now, registered R's are stuck at 59% of ballots cast. Unless Indies break for Trump hard, Biden might break 33% there, which would be incredible.

Right, but what I'm saying is we don't know how many registered Republicans defected either. Just because they logged a vote doesn't mean it was for Trump.

That said, I think it looks favorable

[GONYK]

I saw that 80% of the votes there had been cast early.

I know some want to peg it on size of turnout, but in this case I'd say it is hard to predict based on that alone. It still would not predict how much support Trump lost in the villages. So, even if Trump still holds the majority there, a change from something like 65%/35% to 55%/45% could mean a net gain for Democrats of 10-15,000 votes vs. 2016 if we're assuming this is a voting pool of around 120,000 voters.

So turnout is part of the story, but the shift is the bigger one IMO

I'm talking about R vote share, not turnout. They may not hit the 68% Trump got last time. Right now, registered R's are stuck at 59% of ballots cast. Unless Indies break for Trump hard, Biden might break 33% there, which would be incredible.

Right, but what I'm saying is we don't know how many registered Republicans defected either. Just because they logged a vote doesn't mean it was for Trump.

That said, I think it looks favorable

Agreed. I'm just using the raw numbers to be conservative.

[3toheadmelo]

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[Clyde_Style]

Pinellas County is a bellwether in FL and the numbers so far are good. 3% more Dems have voted than GOP plus significant INDY vote.

[Clyde_Style]

It is becoming crystal clear that Trump's attack on the voting process has thoroughly backfired.

It made voting officials all over the country get their acts together and as a result vote collecting and counting is going more smoothly than anyone could have hoped for.

And it totally put a target on officials in GOP controlled states. Let's not forget something: Those officials work for the people in their state. If people think they are cheating they will take the heat, not the White House. If they want to get re-elected in their state then committing voter fraud in this election where the spotlight is shining on them directly is not the way to go about it.

Consequently, we're seeing numerous GOP officials on the state level telling Trump to stuff it, we're running a fair election.

When you add it all up and how much Trump's hideous disrespect of democratic elections has fueled turn-out and what you are seeing is a colossal fck-up of epic proportions. These MAGA idiots sealed their own fates.

[aq_ua]

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From driving finger to voting finger. An all purpose appendage that is.

[dakomish23]

So the guy who President Trump hires to slow down the mail is now saying F U to a judges order

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[Clyde_Style]

The combined vote totals in MI will break previous turnout records

[Clyde_Style]

So the guy who President Trump hires to slow down the mail is now saying F U to a judges order

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As Phish broke it down, the majority of those ballots are in heavily blue districts. So even if 100,000 of those votes are in battleground districts, the split still would only result in Biden or Trump losing/gaining an extra 10-20,000 votes in contested locations at best. None of which is a fart in the wind of this election with massive turnout. So we'll take care of DeJoy next year. That guy will look good in an orange jumpsuit.

[dakomish23]

I'm purposely watching Fox News coverage b/c I'm an idiot.

The guy actually read a Trump tweet on air

[Capn'O]

The combined vote totals in MI will break previous turnout records

If nothing else, turnout seems very high.

[omerome]

I'm purposely watching Fox News coverage b/c I'm an idiot.

The guy actually read a Trump tweet on air

Understatement of the year. And no, I'm not making fun of you.

[bigfnjoe96]

Biden doing well in suburbs of KY and IND. in early results. Polling higher the Clinton did in 2016.

Could be a look at what the rest of the suburbs through out the country look like tonight.

Can anyone say "Suburban Women"

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