2019-2020 College/Draft thread (Part 4)

[3toheadmelo]

Hayes shot 29% from 3 this year. His form is pretty weird too. On top of that he is a mediocre athlete and extremely left handed dominant. He’s basically a poor mans D’Lo

[HEZI]

I do understand your position. It doesn't seem to be common stance from many of draft people. But you are certainly entitled to it.

I just don't see anything elite about his game and he just projects as a very average NBA guard with some potential to be a little more than that some day down the road

like my response to Rob above he is the only guard in the draft that good+ in all the main categories you want in a guard outside of Spot up shooting (which he is awful at right now). But I would rather have my playmaking guard be a better shooter off the dribble than a C&S guy. Just playing the %'s of where his shots will come from.

He's also the only guard who averages less than 15 PPG (11), makes less than 1 three pointer a game and takes less than 10 total field goals a game *8) all while having an alarming turnover and foul rate

[HEZI]

Hayes shot 29% from 3 this year. His form is pretty weird too. On top of that he is a mediocre athlete and extremely left handed dominant. He’s basically a poor mans D’Lo

[3toheadmelo]

I don’t mind Hayes in our range but I would temper expectations on him. Don’t see star in him. And he is more of a project pick. Will take years to develop.

[mpharris36]

I just don't see anything elite about his game and he just projects as a very average NBA guard with some potential to be a little more than that some day down the road

like my response to Rob above he is the only guard in the draft that good+ in all the main categories you want in a guard outside of Spot up shooting (which he is awful at right now). But I would rather have my playmaking guard be a better shooter off the dribble than a C&S guy. Just playing the %'s of where his shots will come from.

He's also the only guard who averages less than 15 PPG (11), makes less than 1 three pointer a game and takes less than 10 total field goals a game *8) all while having an alarming turnover and foul rate

I mean those are mostly raw stats for a guy that played 24 minutes a night on a professional team. While most of the guys you are comparing him too played starter roles in college.

If you want to use that logic than Luka Doncic avg 12.8 ppg in his last year at real madrid shouldn't have been considered a top prospect?

Wouldnt it be more beneficial to compare his possessions and his efficiency in those possessions rather that comparing him with accumulating stats like ppg?

[robillionaire]

I do understand your position. It doesn't seem to be common stance from many of draft people. But you are certainly entitled to it.

Well what do these many draft people believe is so special about it? I read up a lot on these dudes and I haven’t heard much other than they like his all around game

that he is the only that ranks very good (over 60 percentile or better) in:

Jump shots, around the basket, off the dribble, P&R scorer, P&R passer, and in Isolation.

The only synergy stat on offense that really doesn't make him look good is his spot up jumper (where I agree he is poor in that area right now).

Offensively he is the only guy that comes close to be good to very good in all those categories (which I think we can agree on is pretty important for a main ball handler).

That all seems to fit my description of him having a pretty solid all around game but still no skill that pops out as special, which doesn't necessarily mean he won't be a good player but I also understand why people wouldn't be excited about all that

[Deeeez Knicks]

He's going to be inefficient and not starter material for a while in the NBA. Very high bust potential. Maybe he improves a lot in the next 5 years but meh. There's nothing special about his game for me to take the risk for the Knicks.

His efficiency has been good even with a work in progress 3. It has been steadily improving. With a solid 3, Hayes should be an efficient PG in terms of scoring

Read on Twitter

I'm really not interested in Per40 stats. How many minutes did he actually play and what do his numbers look like? We have to be aware that Per40 numbers or Per36 numbers can go downhill also especially when the player was nowhere close to those minutes in reality. This is a trap stat

Out of all those players he's the only one who shot less than 10 times a game. He averaged 8 FGA a game.

Can ignore the per 40 stats. The stat was the more for the efficiency which wouldn't change. Hayes had a ts% of 60% which is really good for a pg. He started leading his team in minutes and shots, and kept getting better

He may end up being just an avg starting pg, but i would take that in this draft.

Like the way he has shown progress too so could keep getting better

[Fat]

All these point guards come with a flaw you can nibble at

Hailburton, cole, Hayes, Hampton, Kira ...can you honestly pick one without second guessing yourself? If you can more power to you lol

[3toheadmelo]

Hayes shot 29% from 3 this year. His form is pretty weird too. On top of that he is a mediocre athlete and extremely left handed dominant. He’s basically a poor mans D’Lo

I doubt the Knicks will use their pick on another project player coming from France. Especially with Leon cutting ties with Frank (who is most likely getting traded also). If we going PG and don’t move up in the draft, I expect Haliburton or Cole to be a Knick

[mpharris36]

Well what do these many draft people believe is so special about it? I read up a lot on these dudes and I haven’t heard much other than they like his all around game

that he is the only that ranks very good (over 60 percentile or better) in:

Jump shots, around the basket, off the dribble, P&R scorer, P&R passer, and in Isolation.

The only synergy stat on offense that really doesn't make him look good is his spot up jumper (where I agree he is poor in that area right now).

Offensively he is the only guy that comes close to be good to very good in all those categories (which I think we can agree on is pretty important for a main ball handler).

That all seems to fit my description of him having a pretty solid all around game but still no skill that pops out as special, which doesn't necessarily mean he won't be a good player but I also understand why people wouldn't be excited about all that

I mean every prospect in this class has his warts and he's not "average" in those categories (being over 60% means you are good in those categories with a couple skills like shooting off the dribble which is ecellent... but that is the problem of having no Tier 1 prospect there isn't a perfect prospect in this class.

Lamelo is a great ball handler, and P&R roll player. But is a pretty poor jump shooter (outside of C&S situations)
Cole Anthony is good shooting off the dribble and in C&S situations but is a disaster finishing around the basket and he is below avg as a P&R player in both passing and scoring.
Tyrese has great shooting numbers but they are mostly driven by C&S situation. He is extremely poor to non-existent shooting off the dribble. And he is pretty avg to below avg in P&R situations as both a scorer and passer. Do we need/want an off ball PG?

[mpharris36]

Hayes shot 29% from 3 this year. His form is pretty weird too. On top of that he is a mediocre athlete and extremely left handed dominant. He’s basically a poor mans D’Lo

I doubt the Knicks will use their pick on another project player coming from France. Especially with Leon cutting ties with Frank (who is most likely getting traded also). If we going PG and don’t move up in the draft, I expect Haliburton or Cole to be a Knick

[mpharris36]

All these point guards come with a flaw you can nibble at

Hailburton, cole, Hayes, Hampton, Kira ...can you honestly pick one without second guessing yourself? If you can more power to you lol

basically this

[HEZI]

like my response to Rob above he is the only guard in the draft that good+ in all the main categories you want in a guard outside of Spot up shooting (which he is awful at right now). But I would rather have my playmaking guard be a better shooter off the dribble than a C&S guy. Just playing the %'s of where his shots will come from.

He's also the only guard who averages less than 15 PPG (11), makes less than 1 three pointer a game and takes less than 10 total field goals a game *8) all while having an alarming turnover and foul rate

I mean those are mostly raw stats for a guy that played 24 minutes a night on a professional team. While most of the guys you are comparing him too played starter roles in college.

If you want to use that logic than Luka Doncic avg 12.8 ppg in his last year at real madrid shouldn't have been considered a top prospect?

Wouldnt it be more beneficial to compare his possessions and his efficiency in those possessions rather that comparing him with accumulating stats like ppg?

Luka showed his worth by carrying his team to the title. Luka's talents were on full display throughout the entire year. Killian Hayes is not Luka Doncic. Luka showed he was a killer before coming to the NBA, he was clutch and he was made for big moments and that's his worth in the NBA. Even now in the NBA Luka is not an efficient scorer but he is a high volume scorer, something that Hayes will not be. Luka barely cracks the top 50 in efficiency and that is acceptable because he's such an impact player. That won't be acceptable from Killian Hayes who just won't provide that type of impact and not even close to it. I mean by your logic Hayes is a better prospect than Luka and we both know that aint the truth. So that's why I'm saying these efficiency stats aren't going to hold weight when looking at the big picture and evaluating these guys properly.

[robillionaire]

All these point guards come with a flaw you can nibble at

Hailburton, cole, Hayes, Hampton, Kira ...can you honestly pick one without second guessing yourself? If you can more power to you lol

basically this

I agree they all have their flaws even zion had some flaws, no rookie is perfect. They also have their strengths as well. But, and this is just my perception obviously, but with hayes it's hard to just describe his strengths to someone in a simple way without going to percentiles or platitudes because it doesn't seem to pass any eye test from watching him play

[god shammgod]

His efficiency has been good even with a work in progress 3. It has been steadily improving. With a solid 3, Hayes should be an efficient PG in terms of scoring

Read on Twitter

I'm really not interested in Per40 stats. How many minutes did he actually play and what do his numbers look like? We have to be aware that Per40 numbers or Per36 numbers can go downhill also especially when the player was nowhere close to those minutes in reality. This is a trap stat

Out of all those players he's the only one who shot less than 10 times a game. He averaged 8 FGA a game.

Can ignore the per 40 stats. The stat was the more for the efficiency which wouldn't change. Hayes had a ts% of 60% which is really good for a pg. He started leading his team in minutes and shots, and kept getting better

He may end up being just an avg starting pg, but i would take that in this draft.

Like the way he has shown progress too so could keep getting better

i like hayes so not really about him but efficiency does change based on a player's role. make someone the number one scorer who wasn't and their efficiency will go down and vice versa. the amount of defensive attention they receive will affect efficiency.

[HEZI]

His efficiency has been good even with a work in progress 3. It has been steadily improving. With a solid 3, Hayes should be an efficient PG in terms of scoring

Read on Twitter

I'm really not interested in Per40 stats. How many minutes did he actually play and what do his numbers look like? We have to be aware that Per40 numbers or Per36 numbers can go downhill also especially when the player was nowhere close to those minutes in reality. This is a trap stat

Out of all those players he's the only one who shot less than 10 times a game. He averaged 8 FGA a game.

Can ignore the per 40 stats. The stat was the more for the efficiency which wouldn't change. Hayes had a ts% of 60% which is really good for a pg. He started leading his team in minutes and shots, and kept getting better

He may end up being just an avg starting pg, but i would take that in this draft.

Like the way he has shown progress too so could keep getting better

The efficiency changes with changes in volume. Am I really supposed to expect that type of efficiency from him if he were to be taking 15 shots a game? I certainly know better than to do that. Plus, once the talent level gets significantly better and he has to waste energy trying to guard the elite NBA guards I just don't see him being a starting level NBA lead guard that is going to provide good efficiency and also good volume to provide a legit impact. He's got a long way to go before he ever gets there, if he ever does.

[mpharris36]

He's also the only guard who averages less than 15 PPG (11), makes less than 1 three pointer a game and takes less than 10 total field goals a game *8) all while having an alarming turnover and foul rate

I mean those are mostly raw stats for a guy that played 24 minutes a night on a professional team. While most of the guys you are comparing him too played starter roles in college.

If you want to use that logic than Luka Doncic avg 12.8 ppg in his last year at real madrid shouldn't have been considered a top prospect?

Wouldnt it be more beneficial to compare his possessions and his efficiency in those possessions rather that comparing him with accumulating stats like ppg?

Luka showed his worth by carrying his team to the title. Luka's talents were on full display throughout the entire year. Killian Hayes is not Luka Doncic. Luka showed he was a killer before coming to the NBA, he was clutch and he was made for big moments and that's his worth in the NBA. Even now in the NBA Luka is not an efficient scorer but he is a high volume scorer, something that Hayes will not be. Luka barely cracks the top 50 in efficiency and that is acceptable because he's such an impact player. That won't be acceptable from Killian Hayes who just won't provide that type of impact and not even close to it. I mean by your logic Hayes is a better prospect than Luka and we both know that aint the truth. So that's why I'm saying these efficiency stats aren't going to hold weight when looking at the big picture and evaluating these guys properly.

no one is comparing him to Luka Doncic but my point still holds true. When evaluating overseas prospects that play professionally usually they don't get the keys to run the entire show or the minutes that college players get. Its just the way it is.

So my point of comparing PPG vs a US college player and a overseas young euro are not the same.

Luka also can be ineffecient because he is a great passer/playmarker. So he rightfully is given more opportunities with the ball because while his scoring is relatively inefficient his playmaking is off the charts.

Back to Hayes, he still had a 60% TS% so this idea that he isn't effecient seems a little crazy to me. And considering he is a plus playmaker is also a good sign.

Does he need to improve his spot up jumper shooting? YES
Does he need to cut down on turnovers? YES

no prospect in this class is flawless.

[mpharris36]

I'm really not interested in Per40 stats. How many minutes did he actually play and what do his numbers look like? We have to be aware that Per40 numbers or Per36 numbers can go downhill also especially when the player was nowhere close to those minutes in reality. This is a trap stat

Out of all those players he's the only one who shot less than 10 times a game. He averaged 8 FGA a game.

Can ignore the per 40 stats. The stat was the more for the efficiency which wouldn't change. Hayes had a ts% of 60% which is really good for a pg. He started leading his team in minutes and shots, and kept getting better

He may end up being just an avg starting pg, but i would take that in this draft.

Like the way he has shown progress too so could keep getting better

i like hayes so not really about him but efficiency does change based on a player's role. make someone the number one scorer who wasn't and their efficiency will go down and vice versa. the amount of defensive attention they receive will affect efficiency.

yes but that also goes with efficiency and minutes played. Its not like he was deferring he just was given limited opps earlier in the season. I don't think you can assume because he played 24 minutes..if he bumped that up to 30 minutes he would become significantly less effective.

I would always take someone who is more efficient with less usage then a player with a high usage with poor effeciency. Just because your given the keys and have the mentality to take shots (cole anthony for example). Doesn't mean thats the right play.

[HEZI]

I mean those are mostly raw stats for a guy that played 24 minutes a night on a professional team. While most of the guys you are comparing him too played starter roles in college.

If you want to use that logic than Luka Doncic avg 12.8 ppg in his last year at real madrid shouldn't have been considered a top prospect?

Wouldnt it be more beneficial to compare his possessions and his efficiency in those possessions rather that comparing him with accumulating stats like ppg?

Luka showed his worth by carrying his team to the title. Luka's talents were on full display throughout the entire year. Killian Hayes is not Luka Doncic. Luka showed he was a killer before coming to the NBA, he was clutch and he was made for big moments and that's his worth in the NBA. Even now in the NBA Luka is not an efficient scorer but he is a high volume scorer, something that Hayes will not be. Luka barely cracks the top 50 in efficiency and that is acceptable because he's such an impact player. That won't be acceptable from Killian Hayes who just won't provide that type of impact and not even close to it. I mean by your logic Hayes is a better prospect than Luka and we both know that aint the truth. So that's why I'm saying these efficiency stats aren't going to hold weight when looking at the big picture and evaluating these guys properly.

no one is comparing him to Luka Doncic but my point still holds true. When evaluating overseas prospects that play professionally usually they don't get the keys to run the entire show or the minutes that college players get. Its just the way it is.

So my point of comparing PPG vs a US college player and a overseas young euro are not the same.

Luka also can be ineffecient because he is a great passer/playmarker. So he rightfully is given more opportunities with the ball because while his scoring is relatively inefficient his playmaking is off the charts.

Back to Hayes, he still had a 60% TS% so this idea that he isn't effecient seems a little crazy to me. And considering he is a plus playmaker is also a good sign.

Does he need to improve his spot up jumper shooting? YES
Does he need to cut down on turnovers? YES

no prospect in this class is flawless.

Ok so comparing PPG is not fair because of different circumstances but other stats are ok to compare? That really makes no sense. If the international game and NCAA game are evaluated differently then it needs to be so consistently, not just picking and choosing which stats are comparable based on an agenda. Do you really think if Hayes was on an NCAA team that he would be the go to guy that averaged 20 PPG on 60% TS? I actually feel the opposite, I feel like he would be exposed, get locked up by the quicker guards in the NCAA (yeah I hear about this they play overseas with grown men stuff all the time but those grown men guards are older and less energetic and nowhere as gritty as the guys in college), he would face hard full court presses, traps, and it wouldn't be ideal for him and his stock wouldn't be anywhere it is right now. You can't prove me otherwise

[god shammgod]

Can ignore the per 40 stats. The stat was the more for the efficiency which wouldn't change. Hayes had a ts% of 60% which is really good for a pg. He started leading his team in minutes and shots, and kept getting better

He may end up being just an avg starting pg, but i would take that in this draft.

Like the way he has shown progress too so could keep getting better

i like hayes so not really about him but efficiency does change based on a player's role. make someone the number one scorer who wasn't and their efficiency will go down and vice versa. the amount of defensive attention they receive will affect efficiency.

yes but that also goes with efficiency and minutes played. Its not like he was deferring he just was given limited opps earlier in the season. I don't think you can assume because he played 24 minutes..if he bumped that up to 30 minutes he would become significantly less effective.

I would always take someone who is more efficient with less usage then a player with a high usage with poor effeciency. Just because your given the keys and have the mentality to take shots (cole anthony for example). Doesn't mean thats the right play.

i don't think you can conclude he won't either.

more young guys play like this than don't. i don't really hold it against them when they're that young. i feel like you need a little of that mentality to become a big time scorer. it's not much different than rj's mental approach. i think most scorers are a bit selfish. it's just if you can be efficient enough while being so. we tend to overlook guys taking "bad" shots when enough of them go in. but we kill the player when too many don't.