2019-2020 College/Draft thread (Part 4)

[Deeeez Knicks]

I'm really not interested in Per40 stats. How many minutes did he actually play and what do his numbers look like? We have to be aware that Per40 numbers or Per36 numbers can go downhill also especially when the player was nowhere close to those minutes in reality. This is a trap stat

Out of all those players he's the only one who shot less than 10 times a game. He averaged 8 FGA a game.

Can ignore the per 40 stats. The stat was the more for the efficiency which wouldn't change. Hayes had a ts% of 60% which is really good for a pg. He started leading his team in minutes and shots, and kept getting better

He may end up being just an avg starting pg, but i would take that in this draft.

Like the way he has shown progress too so could keep getting better

i like hayes so not really about him but efficiency does change based on a player's role. make someone the number one scorer who wasn't and their efficiency will go down and vice versa. the amount of defensive attention they receive will affect efficiency.

Agree, but he was doing a lot of that as a lead guard and top option. His minutes/shots increased and he stayed efficient.

Not expecting him to come out with a 60%ts, but think he can have decent efficiency as a pg

[god shammgod]

i like hayes though. he can shoot some, create space off the dribble, so i'm in favor of him over someone like haliburton. he's in the cole tier. i like cole's mental approach more, and handle. but i liked rj's mental approach too and everyone hated it.

[god shammgod]

that same mental approach will fail you like a timmy or a dennis smith jr if your efficiency never improves but that's the risk you take. that it will improve and the player will also learn to pick his spots better.

[robillionaire]

hayes is still my 2nd pg off the board but it's a distant 2nd and neck and neck with cole

[Deeeez Knicks]

I'm really not interested in Per40 stats. How many minutes did he actually play and what do his numbers look like? We have to be aware that Per40 numbers or Per36 numbers can go downhill also especially when the player was nowhere close to those minutes in reality. This is a trap stat

Out of all those players he's the only one who shot less than 10 times a game. He averaged 8 FGA a game.

Can ignore the per 40 stats. The stat was the more for the efficiency which wouldn't change. Hayes had a ts% of 60% which is really good for a pg. He started leading his team in minutes and shots, and kept getting better

He may end up being just an avg starting pg, but i would take that in this draft.

Like the way he has shown progress too so could keep getting better

The efficiency changes with changes in volume. Am I really supposed to expect that type of efficiency from him if he were to be taking 15 shots a game? I certainly know better than to do that. Plus, once the talent level gets significantly better and he has to waste energy trying to guard the elite NBA guards I just don't see him being a starting level NBA lead guard that is going to provide good efficiency and also good volume to provide a legit impact. He's got a long way to go before he ever gets there, if he ever does.

Yea, agree. Efficiency can/will change with volume and def against better competition.

I just like how as Hayes has moved up, gotten more volume, etc, he has stayed pretty efficient. He has gotten much better overall. Nothing really to say he is an inefficient player.

I don't know if he'll be a high volume player in the NBA. I don't really see that so i think he can do a good job of picking spots, not forcing it, but be pretty efficient. Still score a decent amount though. I am buying his 3 point shooting.
Plays well in pnrs, run a team. Be a solid all around pg.

He will probably take a little more time but i am ok with that.

[3toheadmelo]

We really comparing a project PG from France to Luka..

Reminds me of the Frank and Kawhi comparisons

[robillionaire]

We really comparing a project PG from France to Luka..

Reminds me of the Frank and Kawhi comparisons

at least with frank you could say wow look at his wingspan or whatever

[mpharris36]

Luka showed his worth by carrying his team to the title. Luka's talents were on full display throughout the entire year. Killian Hayes is not Luka Doncic. Luka showed he was a killer before coming to the NBA, he was clutch and he was made for big moments and that's his worth in the NBA. Even now in the NBA Luka is not an efficient scorer but he is a high volume scorer, something that Hayes will not be. Luka barely cracks the top 50 in efficiency and that is acceptable because he's such an impact player. That won't be acceptable from Killian Hayes who just won't provide that type of impact and not even close to it. I mean by your logic Hayes is a better prospect than Luka and we both know that aint the truth. So that's why I'm saying these efficiency stats aren't going to hold weight when looking at the big picture and evaluating these guys properly.

no one is comparing him to Luka Doncic but my point still holds true. When evaluating overseas prospects that play professionally usually they don't get the keys to run the entire show or the minutes that college players get. Its just the way it is.

So my point of comparing PPG vs a US college player and a overseas young euro are not the same.

Luka also can be ineffecient because he is a great passer/playmarker. So he rightfully is given more opportunities with the ball because while his scoring is relatively inefficient his playmaking is off the charts.

Back to Hayes, he still had a 60% TS% so this idea that he isn't effecient seems a little crazy to me. And considering he is a plus playmaker is also a good sign.

Does he need to improve his spot up jumper shooting? YES
Does he need to cut down on turnovers? YES

no prospect in this class is flawless.

Ok so comparing PPG is not fair because of different circumstances but other stats are ok to compare? That really makes no sense. If the international game and NCAA game are evaluated differently then it needs to be so consistently, not just picking and choosing which stats are comparable based on an agenda. Do you really think if Hayes was on an NCAA team that he would be the go to guy that averaged 20 PPG on 60% TS? I actually feel the opposite, I feel like he would be exposed, get locked up by the quicker guards in the NCAA (yeah I hear about this they play overseas with grown men stuff all the time but those grown men guards are older and less energetic and nowhere as gritty as the guys in college), he would face hard full court presses, traps, and it wouldn't be ideal for him and his stock wouldn't be anywhere it is right now. You can't prove me otherwise

Well if your point is he wouldn't be able to match Cole Anthony's volume scoring in the NCAA then I would agree he probably wouldn't. But at what price? Am I suppose to be excited about someone that can score 18ppg with extremely low effeciency and poor playmaking?

At what cost?

I like Hayes 40% assist %
compared to a guy I know you are high on (cole anthony) with a 24% assist %

If higher assist percentage is a result of less PPG but more efficiency I would take that.

[HEZI]

Can ignore the per 40 stats. The stat was the more for the efficiency which wouldn't change. Hayes had a ts% of 60% which is really good for a pg. He started leading his team in minutes and shots, and kept getting better

He may end up being just an avg starting pg, but i would take that in this draft.

Like the way he has shown progress too so could keep getting better

The efficiency changes with changes in volume. Am I really supposed to expect that type of efficiency from him if he were to be taking 15 shots a game? I certainly know better than to do that. Plus, once the talent level gets significantly better and he has to waste energy trying to guard the elite NBA guards I just don't see him being a starting level NBA lead guard that is going to provide good efficiency and also good volume to provide a legit impact. He's got a long way to go before he ever gets there, if he ever does.

Yea, agree. Efficiency can/will change with volume and def against better competition.

I just like how as Hayes has moved up, gotten more volume, etc, he has stayed pretty efficient. He has gotten much better overall. Nothing really to say he is an inefficient player.

I don't know if he'll be a high volume player in the NBA. I don't really see that so i think he can do a good job of picking spots, not forcing it, but be pretty efficient. Still score a decent amount though. I am buying his 3 point shooting.
Plays well in pnrs, run a team. Be a solid all around pg.

He will probably take a little more time but i am ok with that.

Here's what I'm looking at with him and it's not the numbers because it's hard to project numbers when talking about transition to the league. He's not quick, not super athletic, not very strong and relies more on finesse than power on his drives, very left hand dominant and nothing elite in the ball handling category either. He has one specific go to move for creating separation and that is planting left and stepping back with the right and moving right to shoot. That's his one go to move for creating separation and you don't need advanced scouting to know how to just take that play away. He is going to need a lot better combo moves to create separation on the next level. Then there is the shooting aspect, again he isn't reliable from NBA 3 point range, so whatever comfort level he has shooting is from the mid range. Not only off the dribble but on the catch also. Not to mention the energy he will have to spend trying to keep up with the elite NBA guards and there will be plenty of them on a nightly basis so what will his shot and efficiency look like then? Those are all things that don't give me confidence in believing he is going to be efficient in the NBA for a while.

[mpharris36]

We really comparing a project PG from France to Luka..

Reminds me of the Frank and Kawhi comparisons

no one compared him to Luka FYI

[Deeeez Knicks]

We really comparing a project PG from France to Luka..

Reminds me of the Frank and Kawhi comparisons

He is def not Luka

But then Wiseman is no Anthony Davis either

[mpharris36]

that same mental approach will fail you like a timmy or a dennis smith jr if your efficiency never improves but that's the risk you take. that it will improve and the player will also learn to pick his spots better.

that mental approah as a PG can be callenging if you aren't an overally effecient scorer because if you aren't a good playmaker (which Cole is not)...you really have to be effecient to warrant that USG.

[mpharris36]

the same can be said about KP

He avg 6 shots attemps in 15 mins and 8 shot attemps in 20 mins respectively in his last 2 years overseas before being drafted.

He then got to the NBA and in first year he avg 12 shot attempts and then 15 shots attemps with 14 ppg and 18ppg respectively.

I'm only comparing about euro players play more team oriented style basketball especially the young players don't get a chance to take all the shots and run the entire time or even play a ton of minutes as NCAA prospects do.

[3toheadmelo]

We really comparing a project PG from France to Luka..

Reminds me of the Frank and Kawhi comparisons

He is def not Luka

But then Wiseman is no Anthony Davis either

[HEZI]

no one is comparing him to Luka Doncic but my point still holds true. When evaluating overseas prospects that play professionally usually they don't get the keys to run the entire show or the minutes that college players get. Its just the way it is.

So my point of comparing PPG vs a US college player and a overseas young euro are not the same.

Luka also can be ineffecient because he is a great passer/playmarker. So he rightfully is given more opportunities with the ball because while his scoring is relatively inefficient his playmaking is off the charts.

Back to Hayes, he still had a 60% TS% so this idea that he isn't effecient seems a little crazy to me. And considering he is a plus playmaker is also a good sign.

Does he need to improve his spot up jumper shooting? YES
Does he need to cut down on turnovers? YES

no prospect in this class is flawless.

Ok so comparing PPG is not fair because of different circumstances but other stats are ok to compare? That really makes no sense. If the international game and NCAA game are evaluated differently then it needs to be so consistently, not just picking and choosing which stats are comparable based on an agenda. Do you really think if Hayes was on an NCAA team that he would be the go to guy that averaged 20 PPG on 60% TS? I actually feel the opposite, I feel like he would be exposed, get locked up by the quicker guards in the NCAA (yeah I hear about this they play overseas with grown men stuff all the time but those grown men guards are older and less energetic and nowhere as gritty as the guys in college), he would face hard full court presses, traps, and it wouldn't be ideal for him and his stock wouldn't be anywhere it is right now. You can't prove me otherwise

Well if your point is he wouldn't be able to match Cole Anthony's volume scoring in the NCAA then I would agree he probably wouldn't. But at what price? Am I suppose to be excited about someone that can score 18ppg with extremely low effeciency and poor playmaking?

At what cost?

I like Hayes 40% assist %
compared to a guy I know you are high on (cole anthony) with a 24% assist %

If higher assist percentage is a result of less PPG but more efficiency I would take that.

If poor outside shooting and good AST% matters so much then we might as well just keep Elfird Payton, no?

The main reason I like Cole is because he has deep NBA range, confidence in pulling up from deep off the dribble and he's the best catch and shoot guard other than Haliburton but he's more of a scorer than Haliburton also and we need that from a lead guard. RJ Barrett needs space and I like Cole because he is fully capable of stepping 3 feet and beyond behind the arc and knocking it down. I don't think getting a mid range player like Hayes is a good idea.

[god shammgod]

that same mental approach will fail you like a timmy or a dennis smith jr if your efficiency never improves but that's the risk you take. that it will improve and the player will also learn to pick his spots better.

that mental approah as a PG can be callenging if you aren't an overally effecient scorer because if you aren't a good playmaker (which Cole is not)...you really have to be effecient to warrant that USG.

i'm not as hung up on what position play-making has to come from. i think we've moved past that a bit in the nba. i would rather have an a grade scorer at point and a c+ playmaker than the opposite. i feel like limiting a 1 to the traditional point guard role is a bit antiquated now.

[mpharris36]

that same mental approach will fail you like a timmy or a dennis smith jr if your efficiency never improves but that's the risk you take. that it will improve and the player will also learn to pick his spots better.

that mental approah as a PG can be callenging if you aren't an overally effecient scorer because if you aren't a good playmaker (which Cole is not)...you really have to be effecient to warrant that USG.

i'm not as hung up on what position play-making has to come from. i think we've moved past that a bit in the nba. i would rather have an a grade scorer at point and a c+ playmaker than the opposite. i feel like limiting a 1 to the traditional point guard role is a bit antiquated now.

can he be a grade A scorer with a 50% TS%?

Your basically requiring him to have a Lillard type impact on offense. Which is a tough task to assume. Especially when he isn't a great defender either.

[god shammgod]

a cole/rj backcourt would seem to have enough play-making between the both of them.

[3toheadmelo]

I got what you want I got what you need
6'6 PG with an elite handle that can break down the defense, finish in contact, hit jumpers off the dribble. Is also Canadian so he can relate to RJ

Read on Twitter

[mpharris36]

Ok so comparing PPG is not fair because of different circumstances but other stats are ok to compare? That really makes no sense. If the international game and NCAA game are evaluated differently then it needs to be so consistently, not just picking and choosing which stats are comparable based on an agenda. Do you really think if Hayes was on an NCAA team that he would be the go to guy that averaged 20 PPG on 60% TS? I actually feel the opposite, I feel like he would be exposed, get locked up by the quicker guards in the NCAA (yeah I hear about this they play overseas with grown men stuff all the time but those grown men guards are older and less energetic and nowhere as gritty as the guys in college), he would face hard full court presses, traps, and it wouldn't be ideal for him and his stock wouldn't be anywhere it is right now. You can't prove me otherwise

Well if your point is he wouldn't be able to match Cole Anthony's volume scoring in the NCAA then I would agree he probably wouldn't. But at what price? Am I suppose to be excited about someone that can score 18ppg with extremely low effeciency and poor playmaking?

At what cost?

I like Hayes 40% assist %
compared to a guy I know you are high on (cole anthony) with a 24% assist %

If higher assist percentage is a result of less PPG but more efficiency I would take that.

If poor outside shooting and good AST% matters so much then we might as well just keep Elfird Payton, no?

The main reason I like Cole is because he has deep NBA range, confidence in pulling up from deep off the dribble and he's the best catch and shoot guard other than Haliburton but he's more of a scorer than Haliburton also and we need that from a lead guard. RJ Barrett needs space and I like Cole because he is fully capable of stepping 3 feet and beyond behind the arc and knocking it down. I don't think getting a mid range player like Hayes is a good idea.

I mean the kid in less minutes than Elfrid avg twice as many 3 pt attempts. Seems a bit of a reach no?

Elfrid doesn't even attempt jumpers. Also elfird doesn't shoot off the dribble or shoot FT's well which Hayes does both.

Also I pointed out that has shot 56% on "long 2's". Payton could never do that and he's 7 years older.

Hayes stuggles to spot up shoot right now from deep. That doesn't mean he's an incapable shooter.