Round 1
1. Detroit Pistons
Anthony Edwards | 6-5 guard | 18 years old, freshman | Georgia
As noted in the intro, the player who goes No. 1 overall is going to be wildly dependent upon who gets the pick. There is a group of players at the top, not necessarily one or two names. In my conversations with teams and internal evaluators, during which I asked who each individual person would take No. 1, I’ve heard the names Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman, Deni Avdija and Obi Toppin. And then most teams don’t have that as a consensus top five either. Some teams think of Isaac Okoro as a top-five prospect. Others have Onyeka Okongwu there. Killian Hayes comes up. Quickly, the list expands.
Here, I’ve gone with Edwards at No. 1 for the Pistons. His name is the one I hear most as being the No. 1 guy, and he’s pretty much a consensus top-three guy. I still believe he has the highest upside because of his powerful athleticism and shot creation ability. He averaged 19 points per game last season, and was still an above-average finisher in the paint despite creating most of the opportunities for himself and having a team around him that shot under 30 percent from 3. He’s also a tough shot-maker whose 30 percent mark from 3 understates his skill level as a shooter, but he does need to continue getting more consistent. There is also some real belief among evaluators that Edwards has a chance to be a late bloomer because of his later start in basketball, as well as the fact that he decided to reclassify and is still a year behind most of his peers in terms of developmental time.
On the Pistons’ side, they need as much high-upside talent as they can get, wherever they can get it. I wouldn’t say they have any surefire, long-term pieces in place that they should be building around. Derrick Rose is a free agent after next season, and Blake Griffin’s injury concerns leave an awful lot of room for doubt. They tried to trade Luke Kennard this season, and Sekou Doumbouya is still very early in his development. They should take the best player available with the most upside. Personally, I would take LaMelo Ball. But I think the much more likely scenario is that the team that gets No. 1 takes Edwards.
2. Charlotte Hornets
James Wiseman | 7-1 center | 19 years old, freshman | Memphis (sort of)
Considered the best center prospect in this draft by a majority of evaluators, Wiseman has unquestionably the best tools. The consensus No. 1 recruit in the 2019 recruiting class, Wiseman is 7-foot-1 and moves extremely well for his size. His 7-foot-6 wingspan allows him to protect the rim at a high level. He also has solid shooting potential and will be an elite rim-runner as a roller. In his three collegiate games, he averaged 19.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and three blocks in just 23 minutes per contest — although two of those games came against terrible competition. Having said that — as I’ve noted in the past — I think Wiseman’s draft range is a bit wider than where the consensus is for most teams who think of him as a guaranteed top-five pick. Among teams at the top of the draft, few need centers after the trade deadline. One of them, however, is Charlotte, which is why he goes No. 2 here.
The Hornets have an interesting backcourt in Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier. They have taken PJ Washington and Miles Bridges in back-to-back drafts, both of whom look like keepers and starters going forward. Center is the position for which they still don’t have a long-term answer. Bismack Biyombo’s deal expires this year and Cody Zeller’s deal expires next year. I don’t typically advocate for taking a center this high, and I don’t think this is the direction I would go. But I think it’s the most likely direction Charlotte will go based on their need structure, and the way their front office has operated in the past, typically valuing the center position from a monetary perspective even if the team hasn’t necessarily gotten the elite production from the players in hand.
3. Chicago Bulls
LaMelo Ball | 6-6 guard | 18 years old | Illawarra Hawks
The Bulls have turned into something of a wild card on draft night because of the hiring of Arturas Karnisovas as their president of basketball operations. Previously, you could feel confident that the Bulls would take a high-performing college player, and often that player would have either Midwest or blue-blood ties. Now, it’s unclear what direction they’ll go. This pick is a bit more of a dart throw than even the other ones at this early stage of the process.
So in that vein, I’m going with who I think would be the best fit for them, here. Ball makes the most sense. He’s my favorite player in the class. I know that the Bulls drafted Coby White last year, but I see the pairing as being complementary of one another as opposed to the team replacing White with Ball (which is something they wouldn’t want to do anyway, after White finished the season exceptionally well).
White profiles best as a scorer. That’s his main skill. The dude gets buckets. You’re always going to want to play him with something of an unselfish guy who can also initiate offense (think stylistically from the perspective of Karnisovas’ previous stop: Jamal Murray next to Nikola Jokic in Denver, where Murray runs the point but Jokic runs the show). Ball isn’t a center, but he’s a good guard who excels as a live-dribble passer and playmaker while finding his teammates in their best spots. That would create a bit of a question in regard to Zach LaVine, but he only has two years left before unrestricted free agency, and hasn’t exactly been quiet about his displeasure with the direction the team is going.
In regard to Ball, I recently wrote all about his sojourn in Australia, and about all of the questions you might have about it. Give that a read if you want a more in-depth breakdown on who he is as a player. Ball’s draft range is still pretty wide. I don’t think it’s a shoo-in he goes in the top five. Having said that, it’s likely he’ll be the top prospect on my board come draft day.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
Onyeka Okongwu | 6-9 center | 18 years old, freshman | USC
This is a bit high, but it’s a good fit. I’d peg Okongwu’s draft range from here down to about 12 at this early stage. He was one of the most productive freshmen in college basketball. He averaged 16.2 points and 8.6 rebounds this past season while also being paired next to a true center in Nick Rakocevic. It wasn’t the most optimal situation for Okongwu to produce, as he didn’t always have space to operate. But he dominated anyway. Generally, the role here is going to be rim-running center who can both finish lobs above the rim and can short roll and take a couple of dribbles prior to finishing.
And that’s before we get to the defense. He’s a 6-9 center who can protect the rim because of his strength and length. At 245 pounds, he holds his ground with verticality well. He finished in the top 20 nationally in block rate, and USC was consistently much better as a rim protection team when he was on the floor. On top of that, he can also sit down and slide on the perimeter with opposing guards due to his flexibility and lateral quickness.
The big question teams have, though, is whether you can play him full-time at the 5 given his size? Can he maintain that terrific rim protection at the NBA level, given that he’s not a behemoth in terms of height? Here, I’ve got him going to Minnesota. Why? The Timberwolves have consistently struggled defensively in the Karl-Anthony Towns era. The time where they’ve had the most success on that end is when they paired Towns with Taj Gibson and allowed Gibson to clean up the errors on the backline when Towns got pulled away from the rim. And that’s going to happen often with this core, as the team has decided to build around the pairing of Towns and D’Angelo Russell. Late in games, I’d anticipate nearly every team just running 50 ball-screen actions at that pairing and forcing them to defend. I think it’s going to be necessary for them to have someone on the back line to clean that up, and someone who can help Towns when he goes through his inattentive weak-side spells. Towns is great, now the Wolves just need to build around him and insulate his weaknesses.
5. Golden State Warriors
Obi Toppin | 6-9 forward/center | 21 years old, sophomore | Dayton
Aaron Doster / USA Today
Toppin was the consensus national player of the year in college basketball (he got my vote for the Naismith). He led Dayton to the university’s best season in school history while averaging 20 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists and more than a block and steal per game. His versatility on offense opened up everything for Dayton. His ability to run any action — from a fake dribble handoff into a dribble drive himself, or a short-roll into a pass, or things as simple as a pick-and-pop or a pick-and-roll — opened up everything for what finished as the No. 2 offense in all of college basketball this past season. He hit 39 percent from distance and even flashed the occasionally impressive pull-up jumper. And as a finisher, few were better in college hoops last season due to his elite vertical leaping ability. Among the 408 players in college hoops to take at least 100 shots at the basket in non-post-ups, Toppin finished second in efficiency, hitting an absurd 76.7 percent.
And while he’s not an elite defender, he’s good enough and helped Dayton maintain a top-40 defense this year. The concern on defense is his lateral movement and hip flexibility. He’s not a guy who stays in front of his defender typically. Rather, he chases and tries to contest from behind, to mixed results. The big question here is what position he plays. Is he a guy who can step over and play some 5 in the right lineups? Or is he purely a 4? Most scouts I’ve talked to think of him as a 4 that you’re going to have to play next to a true center. However, most are comfortable with that, because of his shooting ability and potential to at least help as a weak-side rim protector due to his leaping ability. The defensive worries do give him a slightly wider draft range than you’d think. Think more in the top 10 as opposed to the top five.
For the Warriors, that wouldn’t matter. First, they’re looking to compete next year, so getting a polished, skilled player who is already productive has to be appealing. Second, he fits with what they want to do as an unselfish passer, good shooter for a big man and athletic rim runner who can create options around the basket for Stephen Curry and Draymond Green as passers. Front office executives do expect that this pick will potentially be on the market for a potential trade, given the options at the Warriors’ disposal.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers
Deni Avdija | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Maccabi Tel-Aviv
The Cavaliers tend to draft best player available, regardless of position, under Koby Altman. But they need more guys who can play smart, team-based basketball. The Cavs finished 24th in the NBA in the percentage of its baskets assisted despite not exactly having a crazy amount of individual shot creation talent on the roster. They also need someone who can play the role of combo forward and help Collin Sexton and Darius Garland initiate sets. Cedi Osman helps on that front, but he’s more of a rotation piece as opposed to a building block.
Avdija would help. He’s a terrific playmaker who won the MVP of the European U20 Championships as an underage player. He’s since developed into a solid rotation player for Maccabi Tel Aviv over the season. In Avdija’s last eight games, he averaged 13.8 points and 5.4 rebounds while shooting over 53 percent from the field and making nearly 50 percent of his 3s. He’s been good playing more off the ball this season, and has proven at youth levels that he can act as a point forward. Defensively, he also made strides this season. Rotationally, he improved a lot, and he was a heavy steals and blocks guy in youth-level competition.
The Israeli-born forward isn’t Luka Doncic or anything. He’s not that level of elite prospect. But he’s good and someone who profiles as a solid starter at some point as long as his shooting keeps making the strides it has this season. At youth international competition levels, he made 36 percent of his 155 attempts from 3. And on 119 attempts total this season from 3, he has hit 34 percent. His free throw percentage is a real red flag as he’s consistently been a sub-60 percent shooter. But everything looks fine mechanically, and he should keep getting better there as time moves forward. I see Avdija as more of a top-10 prospect than a top-five prospect after having gone further into the tape, but I do think he’d be helpful as a high feel, smart player for the Cavaliers to put around their young guards.
7. Atlanta Hawks
Isaac Okoro | 6-6 wing | 18 years old, freshman | Auburn
The Hawks need two things: help on the wing and more defensive talent. Those are the skills they have to put around Trae Young. At the trade deadline, they went about shoring up the center position defensively by acquiring Clint Capela. Now they can do that in the draft by taking Okoro. He makes all of the little plays across the court, including playing great defense both on ball and in a team construct. In fact, I thought he was one of the best defenders across college hoops despite only being 18. He’s great at mirroring opposing perimeter players’ footwork, great in help and extremely smart in rotation.
Really, Okoro is just a winning player. That Auburn won a lot of close games this year isn’t an accident. The Tigers got timely scoring from some of their older guards and Okoro helped them manufacture points through effort, athleticism and an incredibly high feel for the game. It’s also not an accident that they looked like a mess when Okoro missed a few games because of injury in February.
I don’t think there’s a better fit for the Hawks, even if I do have some real questions about Okoro’s offense long-term. While he is one of the best above-the-rim finishers in the country, his jump shot is still kind of a mess. He shot 29 percent from 3 this year, and has some real mechanical questions that he’s going to have to work out. Shooting is the key skill for him. Offensively, he’ll go as far as the jumper goes. But he is a good driver with strong body control to maneuver around defenders and get to the basket. He also generally takes smart shots and doesn’t play outside of his skills. Okoro will get looks as high as No. 3, depending on who gets the pick, and won’t get out of the lottery.
8. New York Knicks
Cole Anthony | 6-3 guard | 19 years old, freshman | North Carolina
Anthony’s season was obviously a roller coaster, one that was held back by his North Carolina team’s lack of talent and by its lack of fit together. On the surface, his numbers don’t look awesome. He posted just a 50.1 true-shooting percentage, turned it over 3.5 times per game and really just struggled to get anywhere because of the lack of space provided to him by North Carolina’s anemic perimeter attack. Every time he drove, he was surrounded by three guys. That hindered him as a finisher inside, and it cut down an awful lot of passing angles. But, he also seemed to get tunnel vision and missed some easier looks you’d expect a top-10 pick to make, too. It was really just not a great year for Anthony. And yet, there were also some real flashes.
He hit 35 percent of his 3s despite extremely difficult shot selection. He still averaged 18.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and four assists per game, which is a stat line that only 15 high-major players over the last three decades have hit. Despite imperfect circumstances, Anthony was still a good player this year, which I think has gotten lost in the discussion about UNC and his season. And teams that look further back in his history will find that he’s been good prior to this year, too. His passing skills showed up well at lower levels in events such as Nike Basketball Academy, Nike Hoop Summit and McDonald’s All-American practices, when he was surrounded by better teammates.
The Knicks badly need a long-term answer at point guard. Frank Ntilikina is an NBA player and is useful, but he’s a secondary ballhandler who is an elite defender, not a primary creator. At the very least, Anthony can create shots for himself and has the potential to develop into a nice passer based off of the vision he showed at lower levels. There would be some concern about pairing the ball dominance of both him and R.J. Barrett together, but as someone who buys more into Anthony’s passing than the consensus, I’d be okay with it. Anthony’s range is considered somewhere from No. 5 to the end of the lottery.
9. Washington Wizards
Killian Hayes | 6-5 guard | 18 years old, freshman | Ulm
Washington is in a strange spot. On one hand, it does have John Wall coming back. And for the Wizards to have any chance of making the playoffs next season — and thus keeping Bradley Beal around long-term — they probably need Wall to return to 85 percent of what he once was, an All-NBA point guard. And yet, the point guard position remains a real worry because there is no certainty that he can get there. And few teams got as little positive production from the point guard position as the Wizards did this season without Wall.
Indeed, in a lead guard-heavy draft, I don’t think I’d be looking away from the point guard position, at least. So in that vein, given that they could realistically upgrade across the board, I’d take the best player available if I were in Washington’s shoes. For me, Hayes is probably the guy left who has the best chance to be a real move piece. He is a terrific ballhandler with elite feel for the game who has come into his own in his first professional season as a starter in Europe. His ability to make plays as a passer off of his live dribble is special. He has a real shot to turn into a starting point guard in the NBA at some point.
He averaged 11.6 points and 5.4 assists per game for Ulm in Germany. And most important, he’s drastically improved as the season has gone on. He got down to 3.2 turnovers per game on the full season after giving it away 47 times in his first 11 games. But where I think some people are putting the cart before the horse with Hayes is with the shooting. Over the last three years, Hayes has hit just 27.8 percent from 3 on over 330 attempts. He looks okay hitting step-back jumpers going to his right off the bounce, but you can’t make a living that way with flashes as opposed to consistency. I know the free throw percentage is strong, but Hayes has a ways to go on the 3-point shot still, and if it doesn’t come along, there is going to be a real question about how effective he will be at the next level.
Still, Hayes is a super-high feel player who helps teams with his presence on the court due to his ability to quickly diagnose what is happening. I’d bet he’s a positive player, and he’ll be a top-10 guy for me in this class.
10. Phoenix Suns
Tyrese Haliburton | 6-5 guard | 19 years old, sophomore | Iowa State
Haliburton’s production exceeds the scouting-based eval a bit. The Iowa State guard was a statistical monster this past year, averaging 15.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists while also snatching away 2.5 steals per game and posting well over a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Oh, and he shot over 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3, and 82 percent from the line. The tape doesn’t tell a “different” story, necessarily, because his feel for the game is insane and will lead to production at any level. However, NBA evaluators do have some questions about how his skill-based gifts will translate.
His jump shot is messy in pull-up situations, and takes a long time to get off. His handle is a bit high, and he’s not a wild athlete. Defensively, despite high steal rate, teams in the Big 12 felt like they could take advantage of him on ball due to his lack of strength and lack of elite quickness. In my opinion, his best role is likely going to be more of a second-side playmaker next to a high-level offensive wing or lead guard who can get shots late in the clock, and can use Haliburton to get defenses into rotation on drives attacking closeouts or on kickouts or ball reversals. Then, he can play some backup point guard when that guy is off the court. That may sound like more of a secondary piece, but it’s actuallyquite valuable as long as his defensive ability translates.
It would also be particularly valuable for the Suns, as Phoenix could really use a long-term answer like this next to Devin Booker. Ricky Rubio was good this past year in that role, but teams still don’t quite respect him enough as a shooter. That has an impact on Deandre Ayton inside and on the team’s overall ability to space the floor. Also, Rubio only has two more years left on his contract, and will turn 30 before the start of next season. He shouldn’t be seen as the solution, but rather as a useful developmental stopgap.
11. San Antonio Spurs
Devin Vassell | 6-5 wing | 20 years old, sophomore | Florida State
Few players helped themselves more last season than Vassell. He brings an awful lot to the table and his game looks like a pretty simplistic fit in the modern NBA. It would no longer be a shock to see him end up in the late lottery, and I’d anticipate he ends up in the top 20.
He’s a big wing with a ton of length who can hit well over 40 percent from 3 and has great length while defending at a solid clip. His numbers look a bit pedestrian, averaging 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, but Florida State’s offense really tended to spread things around. And the whole idea of Vassell is that he’s a tailor-made role player because of his elite-level shooting ability, as Vassell hit 41.5 percent of his 3s last season. And beyond that, he’s an absolutely terrific wing defender with strong lateral quickness. He’s also a playmaker on that end of the floor, averaging 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks. The list of players to do what Vassell did over the last 30 years in a high-major league is seven names long and includes Shane Battier, Danny Green, Wes Johnson, Mikal Bridges, Demetris Nichols and Markelle Fultz. And if you include mid-majors, you see Paul George, Danny Granger and Robert Covington pop up. Basically, this is your patented 3-and-D player.
I’m not quite as sold on the ancillary parts of his game. His ballhandling gives me some pause and he’s not the best athlete. He rarely gets all the way to the basket because of those two things, meaning most of his points come purely off of jumpers. It’s tough to make a living that way. But for the Spurs? That fits perfectly with the guys they’ve drafted recently in the backcourt. With Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker in tow long-term as creators, Vassell could take up the 3-and-D role early on while developing the rest of his game out. Plus, he can take on tougher wing defense assignments. This is a 3-and-D wing starter kit, and it’s easy to see San Antonio seeing him in a similar vein early on as they did Danny Green.
12. Sacramento Kings
Aaron Nesmith | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, sophomore | Vanderbilt
The Kings are in the market for wing help and doing due diligence on all of the wings potentially in this range. A lot of the guys who play the 2 and 3 for them aren’t exactly low-usage shooters. They tend to be creative types like Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Both of those guys can shoot, but they also like to have the ball in their hands a lot. Harrison Barnes is more suited to the 4 than the 3, now. They could use more depth across the wing to give them better options for lineup versatility.
Nesmith fits. He’s a terrific shooter, having hit 52.2 percent on 115 3-point shots in 14 games before being knocked out for the season with a foot injury. That’s a hot start, but Nesmith is a very real shooter who teams believe will be a 40 percent marksman from distance. The scouting backs it up. He averaged 5.6 points per game coming off of screens, according to Synergy, which was the third-most in the country. Then on top of that, among the 198 players to take at least 40 shots coming directly off of screens, Nesmith was fourth in terms of efficiency. Basically, he was a high-volume, high-efficiency gunner on the move, and does it directly off the catch without putting it on the ground. He’s absolutely terrific at quickly setting his feet and getting his body squared to the basket. His release is quick and should translate to him being a terrific shooter from distance.
And at 6-foot-5 with at least a plus-five wingspan and a strong, physical frame, Nesmith looks ready and skilled enough to play in the NBA sooner rather than later. The upside is that of a starting NBA wing if things break right and at least an NBA rotation wing as long as the shooting translates at a reasonable level. NBA executives will want to get medical records on his foot before picking him, but Nesmith should hear his name called somewhere in the first round. He fits everything the league is about right now. Many evaluators across the league have him as the No. 2 wing in the class, and I’d expect he hears his name called in the top 20.
13. New Orleans Pelicans
Kira Lewis Jr. | 6-3 guard | 19 years old, sophomore | Alabama
As I wrote last week, the more evaluators dig into the tape and look into Lewis’ profile, the more impressed they are. He averaged 18.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game with 1.8 steals on the other end of the floor. He also hit 36.6 percent of his 3-point attempts for the second-straight season. That makes him one of three high-major players in the last three decades to hit those numbers. And since 2010-11, no high-major players have hit those numbers. Among the six mid-major guys to do it, four played in the NBA. So simply put, being able to produce across the board in this many categories tends to portend an NBA career. Oh yeah, and he did it while playing his entire sophomore season at 18 years old after enrolling in college early while also possessing a plus-four wingspan at nearly 6-7? The track record of guys this young to be this good is extremely strong at the next level.
And on the scouting side, Lewis made strides this year in the way that he diagnoses defenses in the halfcourt and chooses to attack. He became a better pick-and-roll distributor and passer, showcasing impressive cross-corner kick-out passes and live-dribble, one-handed reads. Add that to the fact that Lewis might be the fastest player in college basketball — who led Alabama’s uptempo attack in coach Nate Oats’ first season — and you have all the ingredients for a draft riser. The questions here largely center on his body and strength. He’s about 170 pounds and has a very skinny frame that might not necessarily put on a ton of weight long-term. That could hinder him as a finisher, and could hinder his ballhandling ability a bit if guys get physical with him on the perimeter. But for the Pelicans, who have Jrue Holiday’s free agency to potentially deal with in the summer of 2021, it would make sense for them to invest in another creative lead guard to develop — especially given how loaded their roster is with young depth.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Tyrese Maxey | 6-3 guard | 18 years old, freshman | Kentucky
Michael Hickey / Getty Images
Maxey remains one of the most polarizing draft prospects of this cycle. Some teams have him as a top-10 guy, whereas others have him clearly outside of the lottery. I’ve even talked to some evaluators who have him in the 20s. It’s somewhat easy to see why. His college performance was not particularly elite in terms of consistency. He’s not a monster athlete in terms of quickness and explosiveness and he won’t really break down guys off the bounce with ease at the next level. And as a shooter, Maxey hit just 29 percent from 3 despite developing his jump shot at a high level in high school and turning into a real shooter. Earlier this week, I delved deeper into why I think the shooting is the swing skill for Maxey’s draft stock. If you buy into the high school numbers, you’re probably going to be a bit higher. If you’re more skeptical about the low release point, then you’re going to be lower on him.
There are some real positives, though. His in-between game is terrific, as he possesses a killer floater package and repertoire. Defensively, he’s a monster on-ball because he’s tenacious and built like a free safety. Plus, he’s also known to be a terrific kid who is hyper intelligent, a hard worker and a great locker room presence. A lot of those skills are actually things that the Blazers value. They tend to select younger players in the draft because the organizational philosophy is that it’s unlikely rookies can contribute early on, and therefore they should just take the highest upside players. In fact, they haven’t taken anyone over 20 years old since 2016. Maxey does have upside as a scorer, he fits their scheme, and he’s the type of defensive presence they could use in the backcourt next to Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
15. Orlando Magic
Theo Maledon | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | ASVEL
Orlando does have its point guard in Markelle Fultz, seemingly. He was useful and the Magic definitely consider him their guy for the future. He averaged 12.1 points and five assists, plus looked useful on the defensive end while shooting 47 percent from the field. Ultimately, the key with Fultz is going to be if the shooting can return to its college levels. If it doesn’t, it feels like it’s going to be tough for Fultz to progress beyond borderline starting quality guard.
The Magic could use another option to develop with him just in case that happens — or in case they decide not to invest in him long-term as he enters restricted free agency next offseason. Maledon makes sense in that regard, especially given that D.J. Augustin’s contract expires this year, and that Maledon has some experience having played both on and off ball in France this past year.
Maledon came on a bit for ASVEL late, finally getting over a shoulder injury that nagged him earlier in the season. A wiry 6-foot-4 combo guard, he has good speed on the ground even if he’s not particularly explosive vertically. He also has good length that should allow him to guard multiple positions. That he’s carved out a role for a solid Euroleague team is impressive for an 18-year-old, especially with him having dealt with some adversity because of injury this year.
He scored in double figures in two of his last three games, although the pre-draft process and late-season European scouting from NBA scouts probably would have helped him, as it could have allowed him to be seen further away from the injury and potentially in a situation away from ASVEL. Particularly in the case of ASVEL, their scheme is pretty restrictive and doesn’t allow for a ton of improvisation. Nonetheless, I’d bet he’s a first-round pick. His tools are intriguing, he can knock down shots — he’s hit 36.1 percent of his 3s and 81.8 percent of his free throws in the last two years as a pro — and the character reports are sterling from overseas scouts.
16. Minnesota Timberwolves (via BKN)
Saddiq Bey | 6-8 wing | 20 years old, sophomore | Villanova
I’ve long been a big fan of Bey, ranking him in my top 50 to start the season. His growth, though, has been markedly impressive. He was a two-way stud this year as a super 3-and-D guy for Villanova. The 6-foot-8 wing averaged 16.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 47.7 percent from the field, a ridiculous 45.1 percent from 3 and 76.9 from the foul line. He’s basically automatic if you give him a clean look off the catch. His stroke is pure, his release is clean and the ball gets terrific rotation. He’s an NBA-level shooter right now off the catch.
I was also impressed with Bey’s switchable defensive ability. Consistently, Villanova just put him on whoever the opposing team’s toughest offensive player was, regardless of position, as long as it wasn’t a center. If it was a point guard like Devon Dotson, they were comfortable with that. If it was a wing or a forward, it was all good.
Still, where scouts are a bit concerned is in regard to his athleticism. Bey is a slow-twitch guy in terms of explosiveness by NBA standards. He doesn’t have unbelievable lateral quickness, his first step burst isn’t great, and he’s not an elite leaper in the run of play. I’m a believer in his defensive ability and think he uses his positioning and length really well due to his 7-foot wingspan. They’re not quite as bullish on Bey as many in the public sphere are, considering him more of a top-25 prospect as opposed to someone bordering on the lottery.
Regardless, a potential 3-and-D shooter between Karl Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell is exactly what they need. Getting him to pair with Jarrett Culver would give them a pair of big, switchable defensive wings. They’d be looking at Malik Beasley, Culver, Bey, Josh Okogie, Juancho Hernangomez, Jake Layman, Jarred Vanderbilt and whoever they pick in the lottery between Towns and Russell. That’s probably not quite a playoff team in the West, but it’s one that can grow together as a core and become really interesting if Bey and Culver hit as useful wing players.
17. Boston Celtics (via MEM)
Precious Achiuwa | 6-9 forward/center | 20 years old, freshman | Memphis
Achiuwa had a terrific close to the season for Memphis, finishing up by averaging 15.8 points and 10.8 rebounds paired with nearly two blocks and over one steal per game. He won both AAC Player of the Year and AAC Freshman of the Year awards. He also would have certainly made the league’s All-Defense team if the AAC had named one, as he’s terrific at sliding with guards on the perimeter as well as protecting the weak side of the rim. He’s older, at 20, for a freshman, but there is some real upside here because of his consistent motor and athleticism mixed with a 6-foot-9 frame with a 7-foot-2 wingspan and a 9-foot standing reach.
More important, his time with the Tigers gave us a glimpse of what I’ve long thought was his best long-term position: playing him at center. In the past, Achiuwa has fashioned himself as more of a combo forward, but those measurements are well in line with more of a 4 who plays minutes at the 5. I wouldn’t advocate for him to solely play center, but I think that’s the best place for him to get a marginal advantage on his skills — especially while he’s figuring out his jump shot mechanics. This is ultimately the biggest issue going forward with Achiuwa, as he hit just 32.5 percent from 3 and 59.9 percent from the foul line. And the misses? Well, let’s just say they don’t inspire much confidence.
Still, this is the kind of prospect I can see the Celtics really liking. He’s versatile on the defensive end and could allow them to keep playing the switchable defensive structure they often employ with Daniel Theis at center. They also tend to really value high-motor kids with positive makeup attributes. The Celtics generally don’t love to use assets on true bigs in the draft, but Achiuwa fits their scheme and isn’t quite fully locked in at the center position. This seems like a more “Celtics-y” solution to their long-term question in the middle.
18.Dallas Mavericks
R.J. Hampton | 6-5 guard | 18 years old | New Zealand Breakers
Hampton got hurt and shut things down in the NBL in January. It was encouraging that he held down a rotation spot on a pro team this year, but it wasn’t quite the wild success that many had hoped. I recently went deeper on Hampton, and explained why teams are struggling to reconcile his tape against other elite guards in this draft. The struggles shooting and the lack of success on defense, particularly, are the issues at play.
In general, I think the draft range is a bit wider on Hampton than what people think. It’s not impossible a team falls in love with the tools and takes him in the back half of the lottery. But it’s also a pretty real possibility he takes a bit of a tumble into the latter portion of the teens based on the feedback I’m getting after he averaged nine points and four rebounds per game in Australia with a 48.8 true-shooting percentage.
In terms of the role, the idea for Hampton is to be a solid combo guard who can switch between the 1 and the 2, given that his handle is pretty polished and his pull-up game has potential. But his jumper needs to be good for that to work in actuality, and it was terrible this season in Australia.
If I were the Mavericks and this is the way the board fell, I’d probably look more at the trade market. But Hampton does make a modicum of sense for them if they think he will keep getting better. They could use a bigger, secondary ballhandler next to Luka Doncic. Hampton does have good burst athletically, and has the potential to break down defenses. But yeah, the start to his pro career wasn’t completely ideal, and the way the board fell doesn’t totally work for what the Mavericks need.
19. Milwaukee Bucks (via IND)
Jaden McDaniels | 6-10 forward | 18 years old, freshman | Washington
McDaniels is a particularly difficult guy to slot on the mock right now. After a rough season that resulted in a disappointing result for Washington, McDaniels has teams trying to get a handle on how to assess his mentality and more. At times, he showcased tremendous defensive effort and versatility. At others, he looked aloof and not interested in defending. Then there were intermittent flashes of immaturity and emotion, resulting in six technical fouls and poor body language on the court. He also fouled out a somewhat astounding eight times while playing on the wing (over one-quarter of his games played), while also not really displaying a high-level feel for the game. He had a strongly negative assist-to-turnover ratio, and those turnovers don’t even account for the shot selection-based mistakes that result in the same outcome as turnovers.
In addition, his overall play in the Pac-12 raised an awful lot of alarms. He averaged 11.8 points per game over Washington’s final 20 of the season, shooting just 37.6 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from 3. That along with his inconsistency resulted in him being removed from the starting lineup for basically the last 10 games of the year. Also, as you’ll see momentarily in contrast to Isaiah Stewart, it probably doesn’t speak particularly well of McDaniels that Washington was basically the same team with or without him on the floor in terms of results.
I’m not all that interested in advocating McDaniels as a first-round pick. Still, the feedback I’m getting is that someone is likely to select him somewhere in the first round. His talent level is really high for a 6-foot-10 guy who can handle the ball, defend on the perimeter and shoot it. He needs to get to the point where he’s actually good at those skills, as opposed to being good at those skills for someone his size. If he gets there, he’s going to be a steal.
20. Brooklyn Nets (via PHI)
Patrick Williams | 6-8 forward/wing | 18 years old, freshman | Florida State
It took Williams time during his freshman season, but he eventually came on in a big way. Over his final 10 games, he averaged 11.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and nearly a block per game. And he did all of that at 18 while playing for a top 10 team. He’s 6-foot-8 with darn near a 7-foot wingspan, and his reactivity to what’s happening around him is superb. I don’t know that he’s an elite-level athlete in terms of explosiveness, and there are some questions about his lateral quickness, but he’s a good athlete whose feel for the game is strong.
The Nets, set at both the ballhandler and the center positions, should be looking to add guys who can play as wings and forwards. Williams only hit 32 percent from 3 this year, but many evaluators do buy him as a jump shooter long-term as he ages and gets better. He’s absolutely raw, and it’ll probably take some time, but there is a legitimately high-level role player here for a team that is patient.
His draft range is somewhere in the 15 to 30 range, depending on how the pre-draft process shakes out and if he can get in front of teams. The level of rawness in his game does leave some teams with pause, but I’m not sure at this stage that there is enough pause to push him out of the first round based off of what I’ve been told.
21. Denver Nuggets (via HOU)
Zeke Nnaji | 6-10 forward/center | 18 years old, freshman | Arizona
Nnaji was one of the most productive freshmen in college hoops last season, averaging 16.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. He’s a fluid, can move his feet really well and is stronger than his slender frame looks. His body control is also terrific, and that bears itself out around the basket. He’s an elite finisher and has terrific touch. That touch also extends out into range, where most teams believe Nnaji has real potential, even if he didn’t showcase it much during the season.
The conversation with Nnaji that I have with NBA executives typically revolves around “what is his role? Is he a 4 or a 5? I say a 5. Unless he develops requisite ball skills, it seems like it would be hard to get him on the court next to another center and have the right amount of playmaking necessary. He also lacks great interior defensive awareness and is often late on rotations.
Still, you solve part of that problem if you play him next to the ultimate point center in Nikola Jokic. This is one spot where it’s plausible to play a big 4 man who crushes the glass, defends the perimeter and has good touch, both inside as a cutter/pass receiver, and potentially outside as a shooter. He’s also different enough than Michael Porter Jr. to provide a bit of a contrast in skill, and could potentially grow into an interesting backup 5 option.
Ultimately, the swing skills are going to be that he needs to shoot it consistently and needs to figure out an answer on the inside on defense. But I’d put Nnaji’s draft range in the late teens and extending to No. 35. Again, it’s always going to be a bit wider for a guy who plays minutes at the 5, but Nnaji has a shot to convince NBA teams he’s a bit more than that.
22. Philadelphia 76ers (via OKC)
Jahmi’us Ramsey | 6-4 guard | 19 years old, freshman | Texas Tech
I’m a bit less enthused about Ramsey than some seem to be. Does he do enough other stuff outside of scoring on jumpers? And realistically, I have a few questions about his ability to do that at a high level. About 68 percent of his points last season came either out on the break or off jump shots. He’s not particularly adept as a shooter off the dribble, having made those at just a 33.3 effective field goal percentage. On top of that, he only made 64 percent of his foul shots. Now, there’s a lot of value in shooting off the catch. But how certain are we that this isn’t small sample size theatre, given that Ramsey wasn’t exactly known as a shooter coming into college?
Ramsey is strong and has terrific ability as a driver attacking closeouts. If the shooting does translate, I do think he’s going to be really useful as a driver who makes plays happen in spot-up settings. But he really needs to improve his defensive intensity, as well as his ability to make the right reads and passes.
The pre-draft process probably would have helped Ramsey, as he would have gotten to show off his athleticism as well as his shooting ability. He really helped himself last year in front of NBA teams in the exhibition practices that were the Jordan Brand Classic, so his game is perfect for those types of settings. And regardless of what I think, NBA teams are very interested and see him as an interesting upside play due to that athleticism. Based off of current feedback, his range will start in the teens and I’d be surprised if he got out of the first round. And for the 76ers, they need a creative guard who can also knock down shots. If you believe in him being able to do that, this is a fit.
23. Miami Heat
Tre Jones | 6-2 guard | 19 years old, sophomore | Duke
Rob Kinnan / USA Today
Jones won the ACC Player of the Year award after averaging 16.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists while also playing elite-level on-ball defense, resulting in him also taking down the ACC Defensive Player of the Year award. Simply put, Jones really affected winning for Duke on both ends of the floor. He made things happen as a playmaker and improved as a shooter in a way that went a bit unnoticed.
He shot 36.1 percent from 3 on nearly four attempts per game, and was actually really good off the catch. Having said that, those numbers are pushed higher by a seven-game hot streak to finish his career at Duke. In those seven, he made 14 of his 30 attempts from 3. In the prior 58 games of his career, he made just 28.7 percent. Jones still has a lot to prove in regard to his jumper, but the growth year-to-year was positive.
Is Jones a starting point guard? Not until he develops the threat of a jumper. But he brings everything else to the table. He’s an elite passer who rarely makes mistakes. He’s a tenacious defender. He has the ability to take over and score when necessary, like he had to last season. And as a freshman surrounded by three top-10 picks, he showcased the ability to get everyone on his team involved at an exceedingly high level. Ultimately, Jones just seems like one of those guys who sticks around the NBA for a while because he can fill a role, even if it ends up just being as a backup like his brother Tyus. That’s definitely worth taking at No. 23 in this draft, especially for a Miami team that may lose Goran Dragic this offseason.
24. Utah Jazz
Devon Dotson | 6-2 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | Kansas
Dotson was a consensus All-American last season, and someone who scouts are generally in on following a terrific sophomore campaign that saw him average 18 points, four rebounds and four assists. He was the catalyst on offense for Kansas, a creator with terrific quickness and ballhandling ability. Genuinely, he should be able to play in ball-screen scenarios and create offense at the NBA level due to that speed. And while he’s slight, he’s extremely tough. He finishes well inside and defends hard at the point of attack on the perimeter. Center Udoka Azubuike’s presence on the backside allowed him to be more aggressive in going for steals out front, and his tenacity on that end is legitimate.
Still, he’s very small and slight of build for an NBA lead guard, and that makes his defense a bit less than the sum of its parts. And offensively, concerns around his shooting consistency exist after he hit just 30 percent from distance last season. Teams worry about whether he can play off of the ball, or if he’s the patented floor general who profiles only as either a starting or backup point guard. Proving that versatility would go a long way toward him having a career.
Finally, there is a small concern in regard to his overall vision. But the fact that those concerns exist and Dotson is still a potential first-round pick should tell you just how much of a playmaker he is. Scouts rave about his ability to just make things happen on the court as an energizer bunny. The Jazz could use another point guard option long-term with Mike Conley entering free agency likely in 2021, so Dotson makes a lot of sense here.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder (via DEN)
Josh Green | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Arizona
The idea behind Green is that he can be a 3-and-D guy. He averaged 12 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists, and does play very tough, physical on-ball defense. He also has the athletic tools to be able to translate into playing as a high-level defender. But I’m a little worried about the offensive side of the floor.
He hit 36.1 percent of his 3-point attempts, but I’m pretty skeptical of the jump shooting mechanics, especially early on in his career. He has an exaggerated elbow bend that he’ll need to fix to get a consistent release. That’s why he was so inconsistent from one game to another. The good news is that he hit 78 percent of his free throws, so if he can iron the mechanics out, he does have the requisite touch. But until that happens, I worry about what you do with him in the halfcourt on offense.
I have him just outside of my top 30 right now, but I think teams are probably a bit more likely to take him in the range of 15-30.
Having said that, this is an Oklahoma City special. The Thunder tend to love these wings who can’t shoot and do all of the little things while providing a lot of defensive value. Sam Presti tends to value athleticism, defensive upside, frame and mentality traits above all. He’s not worried about having to fix jumper mechanics, if you look through their past draft history. Heck, just look through the current roster. All of Darius Bazley, Lu Dort, Terrace Ferguson, Hamidou Diallo and Andre Roberson fit this billing. Green would certainly be the next in a long line, and it makes sense given that the team has its longer-term answer at point guard as well as a good center in Steven Adams.
26. Boston Celtics
Aleksej Pokusevski | 7-0 center | 18 years old | Olympicacos B
This is the wild card of the 2020 NBA Draft for a lot of teams right now. It’s just really difficult to evaluate where his game is, and scouts are all over the map in their opinions of him. Some buy in enough to have him as a borderline lottery guy. Others think of him as a straight second-round draft-and-stash. I would bet on him going in the first round. Why? Because the skillset is too tantalizing to pass up.
A Serbian-Greek center for Olympiacos’ second team, Pokusevski is a 7-footer with legitimately terrific shooting potential and terrific athleticism. He is seen as an interesting long-term play as the league continues to look for floor spacing from the frontcourt. He moves like a wing and has a 7-3 wingspan. He can pass the ball at a high level. In the second division Greek league, he averaged 10.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists and over a steal and a block in just 23 minutes per game. That production is terrific, but what scouts are struggling with is that the standard of basketball in the second tier of Greece is not particularly high.
At that level, Pokusevski attacks closeouts like a wing, makes passes on the move and beats everyone down the floor consistently with his speed. Remember, scouts struggled with this while evaluating Giannis Antetokounmpo, which is how he ended up going No. 15. Genuinely, when an elite player is down in that level, it’s just hard to tell exactly where his game is.
But what happens when he’s not the most athletic person on the court, anymore? His slight frame is a major concern at under 200 pounds, and he realistically can’t play at the NBA level next year. But beyond that, he also needs to display better feel for the game as well. His shot selection is all over the map, and he’s a consistent rover on defense who just tries to make things happen. Again, though, it’s just obscenely hard to find 7-footers with this kind of athleticism and these kinds of tools.
27. New York Knicks (via LAC)
Jalen Smith | 6-10 forward/center | 20 years old, sophomore | Maryland
After a slow start to the season, Smith came on in a big way for the last three months. He finished the season averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks while shooting 36 percent from 3. That’s a rare set of skills. How rare? Well, Smith and Daniel Oturu are the only two high-major players in the last three decades to do it, and they both did it this year.
That makes him a fascinating fit for the modern NBA. It’s hard to find floor spacers who can also shoot it. Those are the kind of players, typically, that tend to give general managers roster-building versatility, because they knock out two essential skills in the frontcourt. Particularly for the Knicks, he would mesh well with what they’ve valued in the past, and the young roster they have. How much does that change with Leon Rose in charge? That remains to be seen.
Now, there are a couple of concerns. First, is he something of a tweener — between the 4 and the 5? I buy him more as a rim protector than I did earlier this season, but I’m unclear if that’s going to hold up at the next level. Additionally, he’s also quite stiff, which could lead to him being a bit of a liability in space. Particularly, college coaching sources who played Maryland this season thought that they could move Smith around underneath the hoop a bit due to his higher center of gravity. He needs to get with a trainer and figure out how to get bend throughout his lower half and torso. But right now, I buy into him as a borderline first-round prospect, especially if you think you can develop his ball skills a bit more and make him a 4 man. Given Smith’s improvement this year, I get taking a flier on him.
28. Toronto Raptors
Isaiah Stewart | 6-9 center | 18 years old, freshman | Washington
This is a bit of a drop for Stewart, but it largely comes due to his position. True centers tend to be the guys who fall, and it’s hard to find a ton of teams in the 20-27 range who could use one. The Nets have both DeAndre Jordan and Jarrett Allen. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic. The 76ers have Joel Embiid. The Heat have Bam Adebayo. Utah has Rudy Gobert, and the Thunder have Steven Adams. The Knicks have Mitchell Robinson. Where are these guys slotted into this draft range supposed to go? And is it worth using a first-round pick on a guy you see as a backup center.
College coaches whose teams played Washington this year came away raving about Stewart. They love the way he plays the game. He’s tough, physical, has absolutely terrific hands, is as strong as any other player in the country at 18, and even has some ball skill and touch to go along with it. He’s one of the players across the country who college coaches have been most excited to talk to me about. And not only is the skillset there, but also the production. Stewart averaged 17 points and nine rebounds per game with 2.1 blocks. Scouts also strongly believe that he will shoot the ball.
The big question is how much of his current game is translatable to the NBA. Washington posted him a ton. About 69 percent of his halfcourt offense came either on post-ups or off of offensive rebounds — two things NBA teams don’t do a ton of ordinarily. And on defense, Stewart was tasked with staying at the basket and contesting within Washington’s 2-3 zone (although the Huskies occasionally flexed him out to wing in the limited moments they played him with Sam Timmins). How will he look dealing with guards in pick-and-roll defense? That’s an open question.
Still, it’s hard for me to see someone this driven, this tough, with this kind of length, and this kind of nose for the basketball failing. I’m going to have Stewart higher on my board than this. I’m a fan. But the floor on these centers is probably 10 spots lower than you think it is come draft day.
29. Los Angeles Lakers
Nico Mannion | 6-3 guard | 18 years old, freshman | Arizona
More and more evaluators are getting skeptical of Mannion’s long-term future. His inability to get penetration consistently this year was a real problem for Arizona, and often led to its offense stagnating. Despite having three projected first rounders and shooting solidly from 3, Arizona still finished outside of the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency. It also doesn’t help Mannion that there’s no pre-draft process for him to wipe clean the bad images he left in evaluators’ minds over the last month of the season. In his last 10 games, Mannion averaged 12.9 points and 4.3 assists versus 2.8 turnovers while shooting just 34 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3.
I think he’s likely to stick because of his feel for the game, but it’s hard for him to get all the way to the basket, and it’s tough for him to defend. Really, he’s going to have to hit 3-point shots at a high clip to end up playing in the NBA for a while. And if you go back to high school stats, Mannion hit over 34 percent in just one of the three seasons for which we have full accounting. Meaning in three of his last four seasons we know about, Mannion made under 34 percent from 3.
The jumper is more of a swing skill for him than what people think. Still, The Lakers have tended to like these high-feel, ball-moving type of point guards, such as Rajon Rondo and Alex Caruso, in the LeBron James era so far. Developing one who could turn into a real positive option doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
30. Boston Celtics (via MIL)
Tyrell Terry | 6-1 guard | 19 years old, freshman | Stanford
Terry is one of the tougher prospects to pinpoint within the mock draft right now. Most teams that spoke with The Athletic throughout the season said that he was expected to return to school, and thus he was lower on their to-do list when it came to catching up on games from a logistical perspective. But as said to The Athletic on Tuesday, Terry’s current plan is to stay in the draft. And a lot of evaluators who have gone back recently have Terry as a clear top 40 guy who should be strongly considered in the first round.
Why? First, he’s an absolutely elite shooter. Terry hit 40.8 percent from 3 and over 89 percent from the foul line as a freshman. He’s good as a shooter on pull-ups, and he’s good as a shooter directly off the catch. Second, Terry is also a high-IQ passer and ball-mover. He only averaged about three assists per game, but watch his tape and you’ll see a lot of hockey assists. Then pull up his AAU tape with D1 Minnesota and you’ll find he was second on the Adidas circuit in assists per game.
So why isn’t he higher with those two skills? First, he’s 160 pounds and his frame gives teams some pause. He needs to get stronger and keep putting on weight to deal with the rigors of the NBA. Second, his handle is a bit loose. He shows creativity and great body work to get opponents off-balance, but also has a tendency to pick up his dribble far too early.
He’s also best playing off the catch and using the threat of his jumper to either hit a shot, attack a closeout or collapse the defense by making a pass. He might be more of a secondary ballhandler with hyper-elite shooting and feel if he doesn’t get stronger, and it’s still hard to make it that way in the NBA. Still, in the bottom-third of the first round, good teams can afford to take a chance on him turning into something exceedingly useful. He has some real upside.
