OT: The Official COVID/Omicron Variant+ thread

[Clyde_Style]

I’m on Day 6 of quarantine (which helps explain why I just argued for 10 pages of PG thread nonsense).
I got it last Friday night at a party (15 of 19 attendees have tested positive), and i started to feel mild symptoms Monday. Possibly a small fever + some congestion and loss of appetite for maybe 6 hours. Then I just had a runny nose and general fatigue for a couple days.

I’m vaccinated (not yet boosted) and have been asymptomatic for a couple days now. There are no rules about this so I’m just going to proceed back to life as usual tomorrow afternoon, which will be 7 days from onset of symptoms.

I’m gonna get my booster next week and go live my life. I’ll wear a mask, avoid indoor spaces, wash my hands, stay 6 feet when possible, and do my best to keep others safe until I get a negative test. But I feel ethically fine moving around starting tomorrow.

I don’t see how Omicron doesn’t infect just about everybody this winter. Interested to see hospital/fatality numbers as well as the economic panic that’s about to ensue when stores and services can’t stay open for lack of a workforce.

I got 3 good Kemba games in, so that was fun. How’s everyone else doing?

I was just about to post on the other thread “Do you want to order in?” because I suspected you were cooped up and pounding the keys

I have to assume the same; we’ll all be blessed by covid sooner than later. Every one of us have had the other coronaviruses in our systems and this one won’t be any different. The over one-third of Americans who are not vaccinated pretty much guarantees that outcome will accelerate now with Omicron. It sounds super contagious.

I’m double masking in indoor public spaces now and no longer lingering inside the cafe since very few people mask up here. A mask is no guarantee of avoiding infection, but when I double up I feel safer as they fit my face and I can feel the vacuum of my inhales on the mask. If that doesn’t work, then so be it.

Over a month ago before my booster I had an early brush with a covid infection. I could feel it colonizing my chest and I blasted it with my anti-viral regimen and it stopped within 12 hours. So the reality is I’ve already had covid to some degree plus my three shots so I’m probably in good shape now. I just assume everyone will experience it one way or another now.

Yeah, just do as you’re saying. You can’t hide though avoiding packed locations seems advisable still.

[Clyde_Style]

Read on Twitter

[HarthorneWingo]

I’m on Day 6 of quarantine (which helps explain why I just argued for 10 pages of PG thread nonsense).
I got it last Friday night at a party (15 of 19 attendees have tested positive), and i started to feel mild symptoms Monday. Possibly a small fever + some congestion and loss of appetite for maybe 6 hours. Then I just had a runny nose and general fatigue for a couple days.

I’m vaccinated (not yet boosted) and have been asymptomatic for a couple days now. There are no rules about this so I’m just going to proceed back to life as usual tomorrow afternoon, which will be 7 days from onset of symptoms.

I’m gonna get my booster next week and go live my life. I’ll wear a mask, avoid indoor spaces, wash my hands, stay 6 feet when possible, and do my best to keep others safe until I get a negative test. But I feel ethically fine moving around starting tomorrow.

I don’t see how Omicron doesn’t infect just about everybody this winter. Interested to see hospital/fatality numbers as well as the economic panic that’s about to ensue when stores and services can’t stay open for lack of a workforce.

I got 3 good Kemba games in, so that was fun. How’s everyone else doing?

I was just about to post on the other thread “Do you want to order in?” because I suspected you were cooped up and pounding the keys

I have to assume the same; we’ll all be blessed by covid sooner than later. Every one of us have had the other coronaviruses in our systems and this one won’t be any different. The over one-third of Americans who are not vaccinated pretty much guarantees that outcome will accelerate now with Omicron. It sounds super contagious.

I’m double masking in indoor public spaces now and no longer lingering inside the cafe since very few people mask up here. A mask is no guarantee of avoiding infection, but when I double up I feel safer as they fit my face and I can feel the vacuum of my inhales on the mask. If that doesn’t work, then so be it.

Over a month ago before my booster I had an early brush with a covid infection. I could feel it colonizing my chest and I blasted it with my anti-viral regimen and it stopped within 12 hours. So the reality is I’ve already had covid to some degree plus my three shots so I’m probably in good shape now. I just assume everyone will experience it one way or another now.

Yeah, just do as you’re saying. You can’t hide though avoiding packed locations seems advisable still.

Double KN95 mask actually prevents foggy glasses.

So cgmw is going to “live my life”? but …

-I’m going to get boosted
-I’m going to social distance
-I’m going to avoid indoor settings
-I’m going to avoid parties
-I’m going to stop banging anonymous Instagram models.
-I’m not going to use any means of public transportation such as planes, trains, and the subway.

Other than that, cgmw is “living large”. A playah got to be a playah.

[

[cgmw]

I’m on Day 6 of quarantine (which helps explain why I just argued for 10 pages of PG thread nonsense).
I got it last Friday night at a party (15 of 19 attendees have tested positive), and i started to feel mild symptoms Monday. Possibly a small fever + some congestion and loss of appetite for maybe 6 hours. Then I just had a runny nose and general fatigue for a couple days.

I’m vaccinated (not yet boosted) and have been asymptomatic for a couple days now. There are no rules about this so I’m just going to proceed back to life as usual tomorrow afternoon, which will be 7 days from onset of symptoms.

I’m gonna get my booster next week and go live my life. I’ll wear a mask, avoid indoor spaces, wash my hands, stay 6 feet when possible, and do my best to keep others safe until I get a negative test. But I feel ethically fine moving around starting tomorrow.

I don’t see how Omicron doesn’t infect just about everybody this winter. Interested to see hospital/fatality numbers as well as the economic panic that’s about to ensue when stores and services can’t stay open for lack of a workforce.

I got 3 good Kemba games in, so that was fun. How’s everyone else doing?

I was just about to post on the other thread “Do you want to order in?” because I suspected you were cooped up and pounding the keys

I have to assume the same; we’ll all be blessed by covid sooner than later. Every one of us have had the other coronaviruses in our systems and this one won’t be any different. The over one-third of Americans who are not vaccinated pretty much guarantees that outcome will accelerate now with Omicron. It sounds super contagious.

I’m double masking in indoor public spaces now and no longer lingering inside the cafe since very few people mask up here. A mask is no guarantee of avoiding infection, but when I double up I feel safer as they fit my face and I can feel the vacuum of my inhales on the mask. If that doesn’t work, then so be it.

Over a month ago before my booster I had an early brush with a covid infection. I could feel it colonizing my chest and I blasted it with my anti-viral regimen and it stopped within 12 hours. So the reality is I’ve already had covid to some degree plus my three shots so I’m probably in good shape now. I just assume everyone will experience it one way or another now.

Yeah, just do as you’re saying. You can’t hide though avoiding packed locations seems advisable still.

Double KN95 mask actually prevents foggy glasses.

So cgmw is going to “live my life”? but …

-I’m going to get boosted
-I’m going to social distance
-I’m going to avoid indoor settings
-I’m going avoid parties
-I’m going to stop banging anonymous Instagram models.
-I’m not going to use any means of public transportation such as planes, trains, and the subway.

Other than that, cgmw is “living large”. A playah got to be a playah.

Actually this playa just tested negative after testing positive for the first time 6 days ago. There will definitely not be social distancing on my calendar tonight, if you know what I mean. And I think you do.

[HarthorneWingo]

I was just about to post on the other thread “Do you want to order in?” because I suspected you were cooped up and pounding the keys

I have to assume the same; we’ll all be blessed by covid sooner than later. Every one of us have had the other coronaviruses in our systems and this one won’t be any different. The over one-third of Americans who are not vaccinated pretty much guarantees that outcome will accelerate now with Omicron. It sounds super contagious.

I’m double masking in indoor public spaces now and no longer lingering inside the cafe since very few people mask up here. A mask is no guarantee of avoiding infection, but when I double up I feel safer as they fit my face and I can feel the vacuum of my inhales on the mask. If that doesn’t work, then so be it.

Over a month ago before my booster I had an early brush with a covid infection. I could feel it colonizing my chest and I blasted it with my anti-viral regimen and it stopped within 12 hours. So the reality is I’ve already had covid to some degree plus my three shots so I’m probably in good shape now. I just assume everyone will experience it one way or another now.

Yeah, just do as you’re saying. You can’t hide though avoiding packed locations seems advisable still.

Double KN95 mask actually prevents foggy glasses.

So cgmw is going to “live my life”? but …

-I’m going to get boosted
-I’m going to social distance
-I’m going to avoid indoor settings
-I’m going avoid parties
-I’m going to stop banging anonymous Instagram models.
-I’m not going to use any means of public transportation such as planes, trains, and the subway.

Other than that, cgmw is “living large”. A playah got to be a playah.

Actually this playa just tested negative after testing positive for the first time 6 days ago. There will definitely not be social distancing on my calendar tonight, if you know what I mean. And I think you do.

You don’t waste any time, do you “Tron”

[Clyde_Style]

I was just about to post on the other thread “Do you want to order in?” because I suspected you were cooped up and pounding the keys

I have to assume the same; we’ll all be blessed by covid sooner than later. Every one of us have had the other coronaviruses in our systems and this one won’t be any different. The over one-third of Americans who are not vaccinated pretty much guarantees that outcome will accelerate now with Omicron. It sounds super contagious.

I’m double masking in indoor public spaces now and no longer lingering inside the cafe since very few people mask up here. A mask is no guarantee of avoiding infection, but when I double up I feel safer as they fit my face and I can feel the vacuum of my inhales on the mask. If that doesn’t work, then so be it.

Over a month ago before my booster I had an early brush with a covid infection. I could feel it colonizing my chest and I blasted it with my anti-viral regimen and it stopped within 12 hours. So the reality is I’ve already had covid to some degree plus my three shots so I’m probably in good shape now. I just assume everyone will experience it one way or another now.

Yeah, just do as you’re saying. You can’t hide though avoiding packed locations seems advisable still.

Double KN95 mask actually prevents foggy glasses.

So cgmw is going to “live my life”? but …

-I’m going to get boosted
-I’m going to social distance
-I’m going to avoid indoor settings
-I’m going avoid parties
-I’m going to stop banging anonymous Instagram models.
-I’m not going to use any means of public transportation such as planes, trains, and the subway.

Other than that, cgmw is “living large”. A playah got to be a playah.

Actually this playa just tested negative after testing positive for the first time 6 days ago. There will definitely not be social distancing on my calendar tonight, if you know what I mean. And I think you do.

Which nation are you plundering this time?

[HarthorneWingo]

Double KN95 mask actually prevents foggy glasses.

So cgmw is going to “live my life”? but …

-I’m going to get boosted
-I’m going to social distance
-I’m going to avoid indoor settings
-I’m going avoid parties
-I’m going to stop banging anonymous Instagram models.
-I’m not going to use any means of public transportation such as planes, trains, and the subway.

Other than that, cgmw is “living large”. A playah got to be a playah.

Actually this playa just tested negative after testing positive for the first time 6 days ago. There will definitely not be social distancing on my calendar tonight, if you know what I mean. And I think you do.

Which nation are you plundering this time?

The Nation of Florida?

[Clyde_Style]

Actually this playa just tested negative after testing positive for the first time 6 days ago. There will definitely not be social distancing on my calendar tonight, if you know what I mean. And I think you do.

Which nation are you plundering this time?

The Nation of Florida?

Don’t recommend it though crackermatch.com works for some folks

[cgmw]

Which nation are you plundering this time?

The Nation of Florida?

Don’t recommend it though crackermatch.com works for some folks

Hello boys. Just getting home from a quick trip to the nation of Poland, where I can report that social distance is definitely not a thing. And that I have no idea whether the Knicks played last night

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

The Nation of Florida?

Don’t recommend it though crackermatch.com works for some folks

Hello boys. Just getting home from a quick trip to the nation of Poland, where I can report that social distance is definitely not a thing. And that I have no idea whether the Knicks played last night

So ... in a radical plot-twist .. James Dolan is your mentor????

[2010]

Thanks for the info!

So now with that said, my follow-up question is, so how do we consider data credible and reliable that cites statements such as [_ _%] of new COVID-19 cases, and [_ _%] of breakthrough cases among the vaccinated are of the Omicron” if the determination is that complicated and trivial?

Especially if genomic sequencing is not routinely done in the U.S. and since it doesn’t sound like the non-genomic PCR tests identifying variants are commonplace either?

I don't know for sure, but I would guess they have to do a lot of statistical modeling and extrapolating based on the sample of people they have data from. That doesn't mean their conclusions are necessarily inaccurate or unreliable. Trusting whomever is doing the statistical modeling is not much different than trusting them to just count, which has its own difficulties and sources of error.

It's a really big and hard job. While it's fair and necessary to interrogate the data, recognize it's limitations, and treat information and understanding as tentative, I don't personally find that grounds for dismissing it.

I feel you on that. While understood, all I’m saying is that some like to pretend that data churned out is absolute, without estimate, assumption, agenda, or human error. As if things cannot be questioned. And contrary to popular narrative belief, the very essence of science is to question everything and all findings.

From the line of business I deal in, it’s well known data and statistics can be manipulated to justify the stance one chooses to take. Which is why I never trust data as the be all end all. It should always be viewed as a piece of the puzzle, and one that should always be open for audit.

Circling back to my questioning of the data, its collection process and the merit of it all. Here’s another prime example of why I never consider released data as the be all, end all. We must continue to look at any data with a spirit of willingness to audit and an open mindedness to inaccurate projections. As I stated before, the very essence of science is to question and revise everything.

(read below)

On Tuesday, for example, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention radically revised downward its estimate of Omicron prevalence — from 78 percent of US cases the week ending Dec. 18 to a mere 23 percent.

Oops, off by 55 percentage points? Never mind.

The CDC’s current estimate is 59 percent. Pick a number, any number!

Alarms that the hyper-contagious omicron variant accounted for the vast majority of new COVID-19 infections over the last couple of weeks were significantly overestimated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

New data released on Tuesday shows that while omicron remains the dominant variant, delta – which is the more severe strain – is still a worrisome driving force behind the current surge.

The CDC had previously reported that as of Dec. 18, 73% of new cases were linked to omicron. But on Tuesday, the agency revised those figures, slashing that estimate to 23% – a 50-point drop

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/28/1068643344/cdc-omicron-covid-19-delta-revise-estimates

[2010]

So with the downsizing of the Omicron variant among new COVID cases by the CDC, it doesn’t take a genius to reason that the vaccines may not be as effective as they’re marketed and promoted to be (even aside from the emergence of Omicron).

These breakthrough cases aren’t solely attributed to Omicron. So it logically stands to reason the vaccinated are spreading COVID in large enough numbers to not give merit to the narrative that the unvaccinated are largely responsible for being spreaders.

[movingon]

So with the downsizing of the Omicron variant among new COVID cases by the CDC, it doesn’t take a genius to reason that the vaccines may not be as effective as they’re marketed and promoted to be (even aside from the emergence of Omicron).

These breakthrough cases aren’t solely attributed to Omicron. So it logically stands to reason the vaccinated are spreading COVID in large enough numbers to not give merit to the narrative that the unvaccinated are largely responsible for being spreaders.

Well, this narrative is certainly less valid than it once was, but I'm not sure that's due to misleading marketing or promotion (I guess that depends on what marketing/promotion you're referring to).
Double vaxxed people had about an order of magnitude less chance of catching delta when their immunity was fresh, but this wanes to about a factor of 3 after 6 months.
The booster restores the initial level of protection against delta, but the booster coverage is still only around 20% of the population.

In addition to waning immunity, you have to consider that the share of unvaccinated people with natural immunity has been steadily increasing.
While 6 months ago, we may have had a "pandemic of the unvaccinated", that's no longer true, but it doesn't make the vaccine any less effective. Unless you were told that the immunity would not wane, that is.

It's a bit of a moot point now, as it looks like delta is going to be totally displaced by omicron.
If a booster only protects you from catching omicron at the level of 70%, then clearly a good deal of the transmission is going to come from boosted people.
At the current rate, natural immunity is going to be much more widespread than previously. The narrative has to be updated accordingly.

[Clyde_Style]

So with the downsizing of the Omicron variant among new COVID cases by the CDC, it doesn’t take a genius to reason that the vaccines may not be as effective as they’re marketed and promoted to be (even aside from the emergence of Omicron).

These breakthrough cases aren’t solely attributed to Omicron. So it logically stands to reason the vaccinated are spreading COVID in large enough numbers to not give merit to the narrative that the unvaccinated are largely responsible for being spreaders.

As long as the vaccines mitigate BOTH the rate of infection and the severity of illness, the arc of the pandemic will still be determined by the unvaccinated. Viruses tend to die out when the overwhelming majority have a higher resistance to infection which is still very much the case with the vaccinated.

Whether or not a vaccinated person can get infected or spread it doesn't change that fundamental. The vaccines do protect you significantly in most instances, just not all of them.

[Zenzibar]

Everyone needs to get boosted

Everyone does not Bro. If it gets mandated, so be it.

But moreso, everyone who is vaccinated better start wearing their fkn masks and stop the bullsht in crowded areas.

PS: Not everyone during the measles or polio, etc were vax'd, due to location or whatever.

I disagree and so do the the experts. It’s spreading to rural areas too where healthcare is much more sparse. There’s little reason not too given the free access to the vaccine and the risk of getting the virus and stressing our healthcare beyond its capacity.

Fam, either the Omicrom is potent or mild as "experts" are saying. It can't be both can it? How are the hospitals stressed?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israels-first-suspected-omicron-death-vaccinated-woman-succumbs-to-virus/

"The Health Ministry on Tuesday announced the death of a woman from a suspected Omicron infection, as it confirmed over 600 more cases of the new coronavirus variant.

The woman had been vaccinated against COVID-19 and had received a booster shot, according to a ministry statement."

[ellobo]

This is from the Massachusetts Department of Health (data through Dec 4). It shows an uptick in cases among vaccinated and NOT boosted, and even a slight uptick in cases among vaccinated AND boosted. But the big spike in cases is among the unvaccinated. Also keep in mind that in Massachusetts, 78% of the population >5 years old is fully vaccinated, but not necessarily boosted (from the CDC website as of Dec 29). So all those cases among the unvaccinated are coming from a pool of only 22% of the population. Vaccines are obviously not an invulnerable shield against Covid infection or transmission, but they actually work really, really well.

[ag3]

So with the downsizing of the Omicron variant among new COVID cases by the CDC, it doesn’t take a genius to reason that the vaccines may not be as effective as they’re marketed and promoted to be (even aside from the emergence of Omicron).

These breakthrough cases aren’t solely attributed to Omicron. So it logically stands to reason the vaccinated are spreading COVID in large enough numbers to not give merit to the narrative that the unvaccinated are largely responsible for being spreaders.

NYC is still 90%+ Omciron. The downward revision was for the USA. USA will spike to 1+ mil cases a day when Omicron takes over for Delta.
NY is already taken over, which is great news. Will be a super hard spike and peak and then a rapid decline.
There are already signs NYC cases are slowing.

[HarthorneWingo]

Everyone does not Bro. If it gets mandated, so be it.

But moreso, everyone who is vaccinated better start wearing their fkn masks and stop the bullsht in crowded areas.

PS: Not everyone during the measles or polio, etc were vax'd, due to location or whatever.

I disagree and so do the the experts. It’s spreading to rural areas too where healthcare is much more sparse. There’s little reason not too given the free access to the vaccine and the risk of getting the virus and stressing our healthcare beyond its capacity.

Fam, either the Omicrom is potent or mild as "experts" are saying. It can't be both can it? How are the hospitals stressed?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israels-first-suspected-omicron-death-vaccinated-woman-succumbs-to-virus/

"The Health Ministry on Tuesday announced the death of a woman from a suspected Omicron infection, as it confirmed over 600 more cases of the new coronavirus variant.

The woman had been vaccinated against COVID-19 and had received a booster shot, according to a ministry statement."

Look, if you get boosted, where a mask when indoors at a public venue, and generally use common sense, then that’s the best we can do. But here’s some info for you to consider.

How omicron is filling up children’s hospitals

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/12/27/health/covid-kids-hospitals/index.html

Hospitals prepare for omicron surge

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna10094

Scientists are concerned about over stressing an already stressed healthcare system

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/us/us-holidays-omicron-cases.html

Breakthrough Omicron infections are common, but scientists believe that the vaccines will still provide protection against the worst outcomes. Even so, some researchers are worried that the dangerous infectiousness of Omicron poses a threat to the nation’s already strained health system.

“We’re in deep trouble,” said William Haseltine, a virologist and former Harvard Medical School professor who is president of Access Health International, a nonprofit global health think tank. He urged Americans to cancel holiday party and travel plans, work from home and avoid public transportation if possible, and go out only when absolutely necessary — and then wear a mask.

“We should have learned our lesson, but we grossly underestimated this virus and were unprepared for Covid coming back in a newly transmissible and virulent form,” he said. “And we’re going to pay the price.”

One of the most urgent concerns now — as it was during admonitions about “flattening the curve” in the pandemic’s earliest days — is whether the new wave of cases will strain and perhaps even overwhelm hospitals. Some scientists and public health professionals worry this is already happening.

[ellobo]

Here's a good current overview from Katelyn Jetelina, aka Your Local Epidemiologist. I trust her analysis more than most media reports because she's actually an expert in the field, reads and understands the studies as they come out, and gives a good sense of what they show and what their limitations are. This post includes a good, and quite critical, analysis of the new CDC guidelines for isolation:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-dec-28

[HarthorneWingo]

CDC guidelines to protect hospital workers

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1223-emergency-guidance-prepare-for-omicron.html