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OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31

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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#141 » by ToastinKP » Wed Apr 6, 2016 1:24 pm

E-Balla wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:
E-Balla wrote:It does show Sanders is uninformed because he specifically used Panama as an example. Panama isn't where there's a haven of offshore American accounts because they have a tax agreement with the US. Period. Yeah the leak shows the intention to dodge direct taxation of those involved but almost none of those people are American so what the hell does our trade agreement with Panama have to do with any of this?


Yea, Panama's not a tax haven. He might want to center a tax plan around cracking down on tax havens with the cooperation of western and asian nations, reducing corporate loopholes through revised tax treaties and agreements with various nations, amending transfer pricing regulations... something along that nature.

Panama's not a good example

He might also want to stop acting like Trump when it comes to foreign policy. Voting against a trade agreement with Panama a country we spoonfed to become healthy economically? Not a good look.


Trade agreements do not favor the American people and are signed into law to help corporations and their bottom line. Why do you think the middle class is shrinking and more and people are living in poverty or on the edge of falling into poverty???? Bill Clinton was the POTUS who ushered in the Third way, Republican lite party which is what the Democratic party is now. Hillary Clinton will do more of the same while the American people will continue to suffer. IMO Fascism be it in form of boots or bottom lines is still fascism.....
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#142 » by Phish Tank » Wed Apr 6, 2016 1:30 pm

So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#143 » by ToastinKP » Wed Apr 6, 2016 1:34 pm

Bernie is going to be in Washington Square Park on 4/13


http://www.amny.com/news/elections/bernie-sanders-rally-to-be-held-at-washington-square-park-1.11654969


Residente at the Bronx rally!!!

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CFyJ_8_fwM&nohtml5=False[/youtube]


BTW Hillary is making her rounds on the media this morning trying to stop Bernie's momentum. All the free press ain't going to stop his roll.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nwRiuh1Cug&nohtml5=False[/youtube]
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#144 » by HarthorneWingo » Wed Apr 6, 2016 1:41 pm

Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough



I don't think he can catch her in pledged delegates. The goal is to keep her from getting 2383 and come into the convention with a lot of momentum. I think Bernie's argument at the convention will go something like this:

1. I have Big Mo;

2. I've won mostly in states that we can win in November while HRC has won in states that we're likely to lose in November; and

3. I beat the republican nominee by a significantly greater margin than HRC does because I bring in Independents and moderate republicans.

Not a bad argument.
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#145 » by ToastinKP » Wed Apr 6, 2016 1:41 pm

Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough


Well being a former first lady may have something to do with it. Bernie Sanders was down over 20 points just a couple of weeks ago and won by almost the same amount. Remember she was the chosen one before the primaries even began. And the DNC even made it easier for her to collect funds. Corruption and cronyism :banghead: Enough is enough!!!!

“It’s worse than wicked, my dear, it’s vulgar”

Punch Almanac, 1876

Collusion between the Clinton campaign and the DNC allowed Hillary Clinton to buy the loyalty of 33 state Democratic parties last summer. Montana was one of those states. It sold itself for $64,100.

The Super Delegates now defying democracy with their insistent refusal to change their votes to Sanders in spite of a handful of overwhelming Clinton primary losses in their own states, were arguably part of that deal.

In August 2015, at the Democratic Party convention in Minneapolis, 33 democratic state parties made deals with the Hillary Clinton campaign and a joint fundraising entity called The Hillary Victory Fund. The deal allowed many of her core billionaire and inner circle individual donors to run the maximum amounts of money allowed through those state parties to the Hillary Victory Fund in New York and the DNC in Washington.

The idea was to increase how much one could personally donate to Hillary by taking advantage of the Supreme Court ruling 2014, McCutcheon v FEC, that knocked down a cap on aggregate limits as to how much a donor could give to a federal campaign in a year. It thus eliminated the ceiling on amounts spent by a single donor to a presidential candidate.

In other words, a single donor, by giving 10,000 dollars a year to each signatory state could legally give an extra $330,000 a year for two years to the Hillary Victory Fund. For each donor, this raised their individual legal cap on the Presidential campaign to $660,000 if given in both 2015 and 2016. And to one million, three hundred and 20 thousand dollars if an equal amount were also donated in their spouse’s name.


http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/01/how-hillary-clinton-bought-the-loyalty-of-33-state-democratic-parties/
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#146 » by E-Balla » Wed Apr 6, 2016 2:06 pm

ToastinKP wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:
Yea, Panama's not a tax haven. He might want to center a tax plan around cracking down on tax havens with the cooperation of western and asian nations, reducing corporate loopholes through revised tax treaties and agreements with various nations, amending transfer pricing regulations... something along that nature.

Panama's not a good example

He might also want to stop acting like Trump when it comes to foreign policy. Voting against a trade agreement with Panama a country we spoonfed to become healthy economically? Not a good look.


Trade agreements do not favor the American people and are signed into law to help corporations and their bottom line. Why do you think the middle class is shrinking and more and people are living in poverty or on the edge of falling into poverty???? Bill Clinton was the POTUS who ushered in the Third way, Republican lite party which is what the Democratic party is now. Hillary Clinton will do more of the same while the American people will continue to suffer. IMO Fascism be it in form of boots or bottom lines is still fascism.....

Free trade agreements actually do help as they add demand and increase employment. Prior to NAFTA the unemployment rate was around 7% and since (excluding the crash of 07-12) its been around 5%.
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#147 » by ToastinKP » Wed Apr 6, 2016 3:24 pm

E-Balla wrote:
ToastinKP wrote:
E-Balla wrote:He might also want to stop acting like Trump when it comes to foreign policy. Voting against a trade agreement with Panama a country we spoonfed to become healthy economically? Not a good look.


Trade agreements do not favor the American people and are signed into law to help corporations and their bottom line. Why do you think the middle class is shrinking and more and people are living in poverty or on the edge of falling into poverty???? Bill Clinton was the POTUS who ushered in the Third way, Republican lite party which is what the Democratic party is now. Hillary Clinton will do more of the same while the American people will continue to suffer. IMO Fascism be it in form of boots or bottom lines is still fascism.....

Free trade agreements actually do help as they add demand and increase employment. Prior to NAFTA the unemployment rate was around 7% and since (excluding the crash of 07-12) its been around 5%.



How about wages???? How about Union jobs and how many unions have been hurt by these trade agreements??? Also unemployment and the way the numbers are tallied are a bit deceptive. Funny how many Americans today are a $500 emergency away from being devastated and destroyed.............
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#148 » by ToastinKP » Wed Apr 6, 2016 3:29 pm

E-Balla wrote:
ToastinKP wrote:
E-Balla wrote:He might also want to stop acting like Trump when it comes to foreign policy. Voting against a trade agreement with Panama a country we spoonfed to become healthy economically? Not a good look.


Trade agreements do not favor the American people and are signed into law to help corporations and their bottom line. Why do you think the middle class is shrinking and more and people are living in poverty or on the edge of falling into poverty???? Bill Clinton was the POTUS who ushered in the Third way, Republican lite party which is what the Democratic party is now. Hillary Clinton will do more of the same while the American people will continue to suffer. IMO Fascism be it in form of boots or bottom lines is still fascism.....

Free trade agreements actually do help as they add demand and increase employment. Prior to NAFTA the unemployment rate was around 7% and since (excluding the crash of 07-12) its been around 5%.


After 20 Years, NAFTA Leaves Mexico’s Economy in Ruins

http://www.commondreams.org/views/2014/01/10/after-20-years-nafta-leaves-mexicos-economy-ruins

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NATFA) was the door through which American workers were shoved into the neoliberal global labor market.

By establishing the principle that U.S. corporations could relocate production elsewhere and sell back into the United States, NAFTA undercut the bargaining power of American workers, which had driven the expansion of the middle class since the end of World War II. The result has been 20 years of stagnant wages and the upward redistribution of income, wealth and political power.

NAFTA affected U.S. workers in four principal ways. First, it caused the loss of some 700,000 jobs as production moved to Mexico. Most of these losses came in California, Texas, Michigan, and other states where manufacturing is concentrated. To be sure, there were some job gains along the border in service and retail sectors resulting from increased trucking activity, but these gains are small in relation to the loses, and are in lower paying occupations. The vast majority of workers who lost jobs from NAFTA suffered a permanent loss of income.


Second, NAFTA strengthened the ability of U.S. employers to force workers to accept lower wages and benefits. As soon as NAFTA became law, corporate managers began telling their workers that their companies intended to move to Mexico unless the workers lowered the cost of their labor. In the midst of collective bargaining negotiations with unions, some companies would even start loading machinery into trucks that they said were bound for Mexico. The same threats were used to fight union organizing efforts. The message was: “If you vote in a union, we will move south of the border.” With NAFTA, corporations also could more easily blackmail local governments into giving them tax reductions and other subsidies.

Third, the destructive effect of NAFTA on the Mexican agricultural and small business sectors dislocated several million Mexican workers and their families, and was a major cause in the dramatic increase in undocumented workers flowing into the U.S. labor market. This put further downward pressure on U.S. wages, especially in the already lower paying market for less skilled labor.

Fourth, and ultimately most important, NAFTA was the template for rules of the emerging global economy, in which the benefits would flow to capital and the costs to labor. The U.S. governing class—in alliance with the financial elites of its trading partners—applied NAFTA’s principles to the World Trade Organization, to the policies of the World Bank and IMF, and to the deal under which employers of China’s huge supply of low-wage workers were allowed access to U.S. markets in exchange for allowing American multinational corporations the right to invest there.

http://www.epi.org/blog/naftas-impact-workers/

NAFTA at 20: One Million U.S. Jobs Lost, Higher Income Inequality

My New Year’s celebrations this year were haunted by memories of January 1, 1994 — the day that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) went into effect. I remember crying that day, thinking about the proud men and women in union halls across America, the Mexican campesinos and the inspiring Canadian activists I had met during the fight against NAFTA, and hoping desperately that our dire predictions would be proved wrong.

They were not. In short order, the damage started. And, we started to document it.

For NAFTA’s unhappy 20th anniversary, Public Citizen has published a report that details the wreckage. Not only did promises made by NAFTA’s proponents not materialize, but many results are exactly the opposite.

Such outcomes include a staggering $181 billion U.S. trade deficit with NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada and the related loss of 1 million net U.S. jobs under NAFTA, growing income inequality, displacement of more than one million Mexican campesino farmers and a doubling of desperate immigration from Mexico, and more than $360 million paid to corporations after “investor-state” tribunal attacks on, and rollbacks of, domestic public interest policies.

The study makes for a blood-boiling read. For instance, we track the specific promises made by U.S. corporations like GE, Chrysler and Caterpillar to create specific numbers of American jobs if NAFTA was approved, and reveal government data showing that instead, they fired U.S. workers and moved operations to Mexico.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lori-wallach/nafta-at-20-one-million-u_b_4550207.html

Corporatism/fascism :nod:
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#149 » by HarthorneWingo » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:01 am

Bernie is en fuego.

http://usuncut.com/news/bernie-sanders-philadelphia/

This surge of support comes in the wake of a poll that gives proof to the massive momentum that Bernie has built up in the crucial state of Pennsylvania following his recent string of primary victories. A Harper Polling Survey had Bernie behind Clinton at 55% to 33% just last weekend.

But today, a Quinnipiac University poll jumped him up a full sixteen points, right on Clinton’s heels at 50% to 44%, with 6% of likely voters saying that they are still undecided, and 22% saying they may still change their minds.
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#150 » by ToastinKP » Thu Apr 7, 2016 1:47 pm

Sorry I was having trouble posting my reply :banghead:
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#151 » by ToastinKP » Thu Apr 7, 2016 1:47 pm

ToastinKP wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
ToastinKP wrote:
Trade agreements do not favor the American people and are signed into law to help corporations and their bottom line. Why do you think the middle class is shrinking and more and people are living in poverty or on the edge of falling into poverty???? Bill Clinton was the POTUS who ushered in the Third way, Republican lite party which is what the Democratic party is now. Hillary Clinton will do more of the same while the American people will continue to suffer. IMO Fascism be it in form of boots or bottom lines is still fascism.....

Free trade agreements actually do help as they add demand and increase employment. Prior to NAFTA the unemployment rate was around 7% and since (excluding the crash of 07-12) its been around 5%.


After 20 Years, NAFTA Leaves Mexico


I guess I was not allowed to post the video and what was in this post concerning the damage done by NAFTA to unions, wages and jobs here in the USA and Mexico. Sorry if I over stepped the boundaries here at RealGM.
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#152 » by machu46 » Thu Apr 7, 2016 2:54 pm

I've been sick the last few days, so I haven't been keeping up with thread, so I'm just going through and responding to a bunch of posts now...

ToastinKP wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough


Well being a former first lady may have something to do with it. Bernie Sanders was down over 20 points just a couple of weeks ago and won by almost the same amount. Remember she was the chosen one before the primaries even began. And the DNC even made it easier for her to collect funds. Corruption and cronyism :banghead: Enough is enough!!!!


In Wisconsin? If you look at the polls here: http://www.270towin.com/2016-democratic-nomination/wisconsin-primary

There was never a moment where he was down even close to 20%. From the moment he entered his name into the ring, he was only down by 12%, and that was with almost a quarter of voters going with neither. Hillary consistently polled at about 44% and she ended up with 43%. She basically hit exactly what she was projected to do from the get-go and hit exactly what her target was based on 538's path to the nomination (which Bernie also hit spot on, though considering he's already off pace, his target should have been higher).


HarthorneWingo wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough



I don't think he can catch her in pledged delegates. The goal is to keep her from getting 2383 and come into the convention with a lot of momentum. I think Bernie's argument at the convention will go something like this:

1. I have Big Mo;

2. I've won mostly in states that we can win in November while HRC has won in states that we're likely to lose in November; and

3. I beat the republican nominee by a significantly greater margin than HRC does because I bring in Independents and moderate republicans.

Not a bad argument.


1. If Bernie is still losing the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and also loses Puerto Rico, California, New Jersey, and DC down the stretch (all of which are very likely), he'll have a hard time arguing for momentum. In all likelihood, if momentum actually exists, he's going to win New York, Pennsylvania, and cruise to the nomination. If it doesn't exist and he's simply hit a stretch of states that favor him (much like the case was with Hillary just before this recent run), he'll lose New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and the race will be over. For all intents and purposes, momentum will lead him to the delegate win in which case the superdelegates will most likely give him the nomination. If he's losing in terms of pledged delegates, superdelegates will not be swayed by a false narrative of momentum.

2. I think I read that by the end of the primary season, based on current projections, Bernie will have won more "red" states and Hillary will have won more "blue" states, but honestly, I'm not sure why Hillary winning red states is perceived as a bad thing. The blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the nomination, but polls regarding the GOP voters suggest that if Trump is the nominee, states like Utah and Texas are within grasp for the Democrats. There's basically no risk of losing a blue state, but the possibility of flipping a red state or winning all of the swing states should be seen as a good thing.

3. I think this one is the one reasonable argument he'll have if he's losing the popular vote and delegate count as you said. I can't imagine that will be enough though, especially given the counter-argument that this is only the case because the GOP prefers facing Bernie and are therefore don't hate him as much as Hillary yet. And honestly, I think the Democrats believe they have the presidential election basically in the bag even if they were to nominate the "lesser" candidate like Bernie will try to argue that Hillary is. Current projections show her winning the electoral count by near record amounts, and I'm sure they believe Hillary will fight for down-ballot candidates more than Bernie will.

Moreover, I don't think Bernie's recent attacks on Hillary, Obama, and the Democratic party as a whole will play well to the superdelegates.


HarthorneWingo wrote:Bernie is en fuego.

http://usuncut.com/news/bernie-sanders-philadelphia/

This surge of support comes in the wake of a poll that gives proof to the massive momentum that Bernie has built up in the crucial state of Pennsylvania following his recent string of primary victories. A Harper Polling Survey had Bernie behind Clinton at 55% to 33% just last weekend.

But today, a Quinnipiac University poll jumped him up a full sixteen points, right on Clinton


Quinnipiac has tended to be biased towards Bernie, but that is indeed interesting. The fact that Hillary remains above 50% is obviously troublesome though. For the most part, the gains that Bernie has made hasn't been from converting Hillary supporters. If you look at the polls, Hillary's numbers have basically stagnated throughout the primary season. She doesn't really gain or lose support; Bernie just picks up the undecideds. In Pennsylvania, he'll actually need to convert some of the Hillary supporters, but this poll suggests he may have actually succeeded in that to a degree. It's hard to say for sure though because it's been so long since Quinnipiac's most recent PA poll; Hillary picked up an additional 14% from their last PA poll, but I believe it was back when Biden was still "in the race". New York will really make or break Bernie though. A win there and he has legitimate claims to momentum, and a win there probably propels him to wins in PA and the other big states that he needs. A loss basically ends all mathematical hope.
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#153 » by ToastinKP » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:34 pm

machu46 wrote:I've been sick the last few days, so I haven't been keeping up with thread, so I'm just going through and responding to a bunch of posts now...

ToastinKP wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough


Well being a former first lady may have something to do with it. Bernie Sanders was down over 20 points just a couple of weeks ago and won by almost the same amount. Remember she was the chosen one before the primaries even began. And the DNC even made it easier for her to collect funds. Corruption and cronyism :banghead: Enough is enough!!!!


In Wisconsin? If you look at the polls here: http://www.270towin.com/2016-democratic-nomination/wisconsin-primary

There was never a moment where he was down even close to 20%. From the moment he entered his name into the ring, he was only down by 12%, and that was with almost a quarter of voters going with neither. Hillary consistently polled at about 44% and she ended up with 43%. She basically hit exactly what she was projected to do from the get-go and hit exactly what her target was based on 538's path to the nomination (which Bernie also hit spot on, though considering he's already off pace, his target should have been higher).


HarthorneWingo wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough



I don't think he can catch her in pledged delegates. The goal is to keep her from getting 2383 and come into the convention with a lot of momentum. I think Bernie's argument at the convention will go something like this:

1. I have Big Mo;

2. I've won mostly in states that we can win in November while HRC has won in states that we're likely to lose in November; and

3. I beat the republican nominee by a significantly greater margin than HRC does because I bring in Independents and moderate republicans.

Not a bad argument.


1. If Bernie is still losing the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and also loses Puerto Rico, California, New Jersey, and DC down the stretch (all of which are very likely), he'll have a hard time arguing for momentum. In all likelihood, if momentum actually exists, he's going to win New York, Pennsylvania, and cruise to the nomination. If it doesn't exist and he's simply hit a stretch of states that favor him (much like the case was with Hillary just before this recent run), he'll lose New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and the race will be over. For all intents and purposes, momentum will lead him to the delegate win in which case the superdelegates will most likely give him the nomination. If he's losing in terms of pledged delegates, superdelegates will not be swayed by a false narrative of momentum.

2. I think I read that by the end of the primary season, based on current projections, Bernie will have won more "red" states and Hillary will have won more "blue" states, but honestly, I'm not sure why Hillary winning red states is perceived as a bad thing. The blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the nomination, but polls regarding the GOP voters suggest that if Trump is the nominee, states like Utah and Texas are within grasp for the Democrats. There's basically no risk of losing a blue state, but the possibility of flipping a red state or winning all of the swing states should be seen as a good thing.

3. I think this one is the one reasonable argument he'll have if he's losing the popular vote and delegate count as you said. I can't imagine that will be enough though, especially given the counter-argument that this is only the case because the GOP prefers facing Bernie and are therefore don't hate him as much as Hillary yet. And honestly, I think the Democrats believe they have the presidential election basically in the bag even if they were to nominate the "lesser" candidate like Bernie will try to argue that Hillary is. Current projections show her winning the electoral count by near record amounts, and I'm sure they believe Hillary will fight for down-ballot candidates more than Bernie will.

Moreover, I don't think Bernie's recent attacks on Hillary, Obama, and the Democratic party as a whole will play well to the superdelegates.


HarthorneWingo wrote:Bernie is en fuego.

http://usuncut.com/news/bernie-sanders-philadelphia/

This surge of support comes in the wake of a poll that gives proof to the massive momentum that Bernie has built up in the crucial state of Pennsylvania following his recent string of primary victories. A Harper Polling Survey had Bernie behind Clinton at 55% to 33% just last weekend.

But today, a Quinnipiac University poll jumped him up a full sixteen points, right on Clinton


Quinnipiac has tended to be biased towards Bernie, but that is indeed interesting. The fact that Hillary remains above 50% is obviously troublesome though. For the most part, the gains that Bernie has made hasn't been from converting Hillary supporters. If you look at the polls, Hillary's numbers have basically stagnated throughout the primary season. She doesn't really gain or lose support; Bernie just picks up the undecideds. In Pennsylvania, he'll actually need to convert some of the Hillary supporters, but this poll suggests he may have actually succeeded in that to a degree. It's hard to say for sure though because it's been so long since Quinnipiac's most recent PA poll; Hillary picked up an additional 14% from their last PA poll, but I believe it was back when Biden was still "in the race". New York will really make or break Bernie though. A win there and he has legitimate claims to momentum, and a win there probably propels him to wins in PA and the other big states that he needs. A loss basically ends all mathematical hope.



A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin found that Bernie Sanders is closing the gap on Hillary Clinton. The Democratic front-runner’s lead has shrunk from 44 points to twelve.

ccording to the Marquette Law School Poll, “On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 44 percent, followed by Bernie Sanders at 32 percent and Joe Biden at 12 percent. Lincoln Chaffee, Martin O’Malley and Jim Webb each receive less than 1 percent support. In April, Clinton had 58 percent support and Biden 12 percent while Sanders was not included in the April poll. Elizabeth Warren, who was not included in this poll, had received 14 percent support in April.”

As with other recent polling, it isn’t that Clinton is losing all of her support. It’s that Bernie Sanders is gaining. Clinton’s support did decline by 14 points since April, but Bernie Sanders has gained 18 points of support over where Elizabeth Warren was in the spring poll.

Sen. Sanders (I-VT) has gone from not being in the first poll to being competitive with former Sec. of State Clinton before Labor Day. Bernie Sanders set his first crowd record of the 2016 campaign at a rally in Madison. Sanders has become a bona fide national candidate by breaking his own crowd records in venues all across the country.

The mainstream media is obsessed with Donald Trump, but it is Bernie Sanders who is packing them in at his campaign events.

The Wisconsin poll numbers are very good news on all fronts. A competitive primary benefits Hillary Clinton by making her campaign stronger. A competitive primary helps Bernie Sanders build a national movement to change American politics by taking back power from the right-wing billionaires, and whether the Democratic Party wants to admit it, a competitive primary is good for the party because it engages people in the process and creates discussion about the issues that matter.

http://www.politicususa.com/2015/08/20/wisconsin-competitive-bernie-sanders-closes-gap-hillary-clinton.html
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#154 » by ToastinKP » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:50 pm

machu46 wrote:I've been sick the last few days, so I haven't been keeping up with thread, so I'm just going through and responding to a bunch of posts now...

ToastinKP wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough


Well being a former first lady may have something to do with it. Bernie Sanders was down over 20 points just a couple of weeks ago and won by almost the same amount. Remember she was the chosen one before the primaries even began. And the DNC even made it easier for her to collect funds. Corruption and cronyism :banghead: Enough is enough!!!!


In Wisconsin? If you look at the polls here: http://www.270towin.com/2016-democratic-nomination/wisconsin-primary

There was never a moment where he was down even close to 20%. From the moment he entered his name into the ring, he was only down by 12%, and that was with almost a quarter of voters going with neither. Hillary consistently polled at about 44% and she ended up with 43%. She basically hit exactly what she was projected to do from the get-go and hit exactly what her target was based on 538's path to the nomination (which Bernie also hit spot on, though considering he's already off pace, his target should have been higher).


HarthorneWingo wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough



I don't think he can catch her in pledged delegates. The goal is to keep her from getting 2383 and come into the convention with a lot of momentum. I think Bernie's argument at the convention will go something like this:

1. I have Big Mo;

2. I've won mostly in states that we can win in November while HRC has won in states that we're likely to lose in November; and

3. I beat the republican nominee by a significantly greater margin than HRC does because I bring in Independents and moderate republicans.

Not a bad argument.


1. If Bernie is still losing the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and also loses Puerto Rico, California, New Jersey, and DC down the stretch (all of which are very likely), he'll have a hard time arguing for momentum. In all likelihood, if momentum actually exists, he's going to win New York, Pennsylvania, and cruise to the nomination. If it doesn't exist and he's simply hit a stretch of states that favor him (much like the case was with Hillary just before this recent run), he'll lose New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and the race will be over. For all intents and purposes, momentum will lead him to the delegate win in which case the superdelegates will most likely give him the nomination. If he's losing in terms of pledged delegates, superdelegates will not be swayed by a false narrative of momentum.

2. I think I read that by the end of the primary season, based on current projections, Bernie will have won more "red" states and Hillary will have won more "blue" states, but honestly, I'm not sure why Hillary winning red states is perceived as a bad thing. The blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the nomination, but polls regarding the GOP voters suggest that if Trump is the nominee, states like Utah and Texas are within grasp for the Democrats. There's basically no risk of losing a blue state, but the possibility of flipping a red state or winning all of the swing states should be seen as a good thing.

3. I think this one is the one reasonable argument he'll have if he's losing the popular vote and delegate count as you said. I can't imagine that will be enough though, especially given the counter-argument that this is only the case because the GOP prefers facing Bernie and are therefore don't hate him as much as Hillary yet. And honestly, I think the Democrats believe they have the presidential election basically in the bag even if they were to nominate the "lesser" candidate like Bernie will try to argue that Hillary is. Current projections show her winning the electoral count by near record amounts, and I'm sure they believe Hillary will fight for down-ballot candidates more than Bernie will.

Moreover, I don't think Bernie's recent attacks on Hillary, Obama, and the Democratic party as a whole will play well to the superdelegates.


HarthorneWingo wrote:Bernie is en fuego.

http://usuncut.com/news/bernie-sanders-philadelphia/

This surge of support comes in the wake of a poll that gives proof to the massive momentum that Bernie has built up in the crucial state of Pennsylvania following his recent string of primary victories. A Harper Polling Survey had Bernie behind Clinton at 55% to 33% just last weekend.

But today, a Quinnipiac University poll jumped him up a full sixteen points, right on Clinton


Quinnipiac has tended to be biased towards Bernie, but that is indeed interesting. The fact that Hillary remains above 50% is obviously troublesome though. For the most part, the gains that Bernie has made hasn't been from converting Hillary supporters. If you look at the polls, Hillary's numbers have basically stagnated throughout the primary season. She doesn't really gain or lose support; Bernie just picks up the undecideds. In Pennsylvania, he'll actually need to convert some of the Hillary supporters, but this poll suggests he may have actually succeeded in that to a degree. It's hard to say for sure though because it's been so long since Quinnipiac's most recent PA poll; Hillary picked up an additional 14% from their last PA poll, but I believe it was back when Biden was still "in the race". New York will really make or break Bernie though. A win there and he has legitimate claims to momentum, and a win there probably propels him to wins in PA and the other big states that he needs. A loss basically ends all mathematical hope.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_32916.pdf
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#155 » by ToastinKP » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:54 pm

ToastinKP wrote:
machu46 wrote:I've been sick the last few days, so I haven't been keeping up with thread, so I'm just going through and responding to a bunch of posts now...

ToastinKP wrote:
Well being a former first lady may have something to do with it. Bernie Sanders was down over 20 points just a couple of weeks ago and won by almost the same amount. Remember she was the chosen one before the primaries even began. And the DNC even made it easier for her to collect funds. Corruption and cronyism :banghead: Enough is enough!!!!


In Wisconsin? If you look at the polls here: http://www.270towin.com/2016-democratic-nomination/wisconsin-primary

There was never a moment where he was down even close to 20%. From the moment he entered his name into the ring, he was only down by 12%, and that was with almost a quarter of voters going with neither. Hillary consistently polled at about 44% and she ended up with 43%. She basically hit exactly what she was projected to do from the get-go and hit exactly what her target was based on 538's path to the nomination (which Bernie also hit spot on, though considering he's already off pace, his target should have been higher).


HarthorneWingo wrote:

I don't think he can catch her in pledged delegates. The goal is to keep her from getting 2383 and come into the convention with a lot of momentum. I think Bernie's argument at the convention will go something like this:

1. I have Big Mo;

2. I've won mostly in states that we can win in November while HRC has won in states that we're likely to lose in November; and

3. I beat the republican nominee by a significantly greater margin than HRC does because I bring in Independents and moderate republicans.

Not a bad argument.


1. If Bernie is still losing the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and also loses Puerto Rico, California, New Jersey, and DC down the stretch (all of which are very likely), he'll have a hard time arguing for momentum. In all likelihood, if momentum actually exists, he's going to win New York, Pennsylvania, and cruise to the nomination. If it doesn't exist and he's simply hit a stretch of states that favor him (much like the case was with Hillary just before this recent run), he'll lose New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and the race will be over. For all intents and purposes, momentum will lead him to the delegate win in which case the superdelegates will most likely give him the nomination. If he's losing in terms of pledged delegates, superdelegates will not be swayed by a false narrative of momentum.

2. I think I read that by the end of the primary season, based on current projections, Bernie will have won more "red" states and Hillary will have won more "blue" states, but honestly, I'm not sure why Hillary winning red states is perceived as a bad thing. The blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the nomination, but polls regarding the GOP voters suggest that if Trump is the nominee, states like Utah and Texas are within grasp for the Democrats. There's basically no risk of losing a blue state, but the possibility of flipping a red state or winning all of the swing states should be seen as a good thing.

3. I think this one is the one reasonable argument he'll have if he's losing the popular vote and delegate count as you said. I can't imagine that will be enough though, especially given the counter-argument that this is only the case because the GOP prefers facing Bernie and are therefore don't hate him as much as Hillary yet. And honestly, I think the Democrats believe they have the presidential election basically in the bag even if they were to nominate the "lesser" candidate like Bernie will try to argue that Hillary is. Current projections show her winning the electoral count by near record amounts, and I'm sure they believe Hillary will fight for down-ballot candidates more than Bernie will.

Moreover, I don't think Bernie's recent attacks on Hillary, Obama, and the Democratic party as a whole will play well to the superdelegates.


HarthorneWingo wrote:Bernie is en fuego.

http://usuncut.com/news/bernie-sanders-philadelphia/



Quinnipiac has tended to be biased towards Bernie, but that is indeed interesting. The fact that Hillary remains above 50% is obviously troublesome though. For the most part, the gains that Bernie has made hasn't been from converting Hillary supporters. If you look at the polls, Hillary's numbers have basically stagnated throughout the primary season. She doesn't really gain or lose support; Bernie just picks up the undecideds. In Pennsylvania, he'll actually need to convert some of the Hillary supporters, but this poll suggests he may have actually succeeded in that to a degree. It's hard to say for sure though because it's been so long since Quinnipiac's most recent PA poll; Hillary picked up an additional 14% from their last PA poll, but I believe it was back when Biden was still "in the race". New York will really make or break Bernie though. A win there and he has legitimate claims to momentum, and a win there probably propels him to wins in PA and the other big states that he needs. A loss basically ends all mathematical hope.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_32916.pdf


http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-wins-wisconsin-blowout/

BTW I see that you are a financial analyst so I can understand why you may be supporting Hillary.....
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#156 » by islanders11040 » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:06 pm



62% Trump supporters think Obama is a muslim while 9% think he is christian. 29% not sure. So 91% dont believe hes christian. What do these people read? :crazy:
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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#157 » by CJackson » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:08 pm

machu46 wrote:I've been sick the last few days, so I haven't been keeping up with thread, so I'm just going through and responding to a bunch of posts now...

ToastinKP wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough


Well being a former first lady may have something to do with it. Bernie Sanders was down over 20 points just a couple of weeks ago and won by almost the same amount. Remember she was the chosen one before the primaries even began. And the DNC even made it easier for her to collect funds. Corruption and cronyism :banghead: Enough is enough!!!!


In Wisconsin? If you look at the polls here: http://www.270towin.com/2016-democratic-nomination/wisconsin-primary

There was never a moment where he was down even close to 20%. From the moment he entered his name into the ring, he was only down by 12%, and that was with almost a quarter of voters going with neither. Hillary consistently polled at about 44% and she ended up with 43%. She basically hit exactly what she was projected to do from the get-go and hit exactly what her target was based on 538's path to the nomination (which Bernie also hit spot on, though considering he's already off pace, his target should have been higher).


HarthorneWingo wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:So Hillary does absolutely nothing in Wisconsin and still ends up with about 43% of the vote, meaning that Bernie Sanders gets about 46 delegates and Hillary gets 36. So really Bernie gets 10 more delegates in the grand scheme of things and is still more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

You just wonder what can happen when Hillary actually puts effort into a particular state, most likely New York and some other big states. Bernie needs to have like a 80/20 split in these states.... 55/45 isn't enough



I don't think he can catch her in pledged delegates. The goal is to keep her from getting 2383 and come into the convention with a lot of momentum. I think Bernie's argument at the convention will go something like this:

1. I have Big Mo;

2. I've won mostly in states that we can win in November while HRC has won in states that we're likely to lose in November; and

3. I beat the republican nominee by a significantly greater margin than HRC does because I bring in Independents and moderate republicans.

Not a bad argument.


1. If Bernie is still losing the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and also loses Puerto Rico, California, New Jersey, and DC down the stretch (all of which are very likely), he'll have a hard time arguing for momentum. In all likelihood, if momentum actually exists, he's going to win New York, Pennsylvania, and cruise to the nomination. If it doesn't exist and he's simply hit a stretch of states that favor him (much like the case was with Hillary just before this recent run), he'll lose New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and the race will be over. For all intents and purposes, momentum will lead him to the delegate win in which case the superdelegates will most likely give him the nomination. If he's losing in terms of pledged delegates, superdelegates will not be swayed by a false narrative of momentum.

2. I think I read that by the end of the primary season, based on current projections, Bernie will have won more "red" states and Hillary will have won more "blue" states, but honestly, I'm not sure why Hillary winning red states is perceived as a bad thing. The blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the nomination, but polls regarding the GOP voters suggest that if Trump is the nominee, states like Utah and Texas are within grasp for the Democrats. There's basically no risk of losing a blue state, but the possibility of flipping a red state or winning all of the swing states should be seen as a good thing.

3. I think this one is the one reasonable argument he'll have if he's losing the popular vote and delegate count as you said. I can't imagine that will be enough though, especially given the counter-argument that this is only the case because the GOP prefers facing Bernie and are therefore don't hate him as much as Hillary yet. And honestly, I think the Democrats believe they have the presidential election basically in the bag even if they were to nominate the "lesser" candidate like Bernie will try to argue that Hillary is. Current projections show her winning the electoral count by near record amounts, and I'm sure they believe Hillary will fight for down-ballot candidates more than Bernie will.

Moreover, I don't think Bernie's recent attacks on Hillary, Obama, and the Democratic party as a whole will play well to the superdelegates.


HarthorneWingo wrote:Bernie is en fuego.

http://usuncut.com/news/bernie-sanders-philadelphia/

This surge of support comes in the wake of a poll that gives proof to the massive momentum that Bernie has built up in the crucial state of Pennsylvania following his recent string of primary victories. A Harper Polling Survey had Bernie behind Clinton at 55% to 33% just last weekend.

But today, a Quinnipiac University poll jumped him up a full sixteen points, right on Clinton


Quinnipiac has tended to be biased towards Bernie, but that is indeed interesting. The fact that Hillary remains above 50% is obviously troublesome though. For the most part, the gains that Bernie has made hasn't been from converting Hillary supporters. If you look at the polls, Hillary's numbers have basically stagnated throughout the primary season. She doesn't really gain or lose support; Bernie just picks up the undecideds. In Pennsylvania, he'll actually need to convert some of the Hillary supporters, but this poll suggests he may have actually succeeded in that to a degree. It's hard to say for sure though because it's been so long since Quinnipiac's most recent PA poll; Hillary picked up an additional 14% from their last PA poll, but I believe it was back when Biden was still "in the race". New York will really make or break Bernie though. A win there and he has legitimate claims to momentum, and a win there probably propels him to wins in PA and the other big states that he needs. A loss basically ends all mathematical hope.


i do think he has to win ny or pull dead even to show he has the mo. i said before today i thot he could win PA and i still think that. if he wins PA and goes even or better in NY then that would be enuff to crush objections against him being viable as the dem nominee and then he should be able to take away fence sitters from hilary the rest of the way. i said he has a shot and i was right. it is not over yet
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OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#158 » by machu46 » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:14 pm

ToastinKP wrote:
ToastinKP wrote:
machu46 wrote:I've been sick the last few days, so I haven't been keeping up with thread, so I'm just going through and responding to a bunch of posts now...



In Wisconsin? If you look at the polls here: http://www.270towin.com/2016-democratic-nomination/wisconsin-primary

There was never a moment where he was down even close to 20%. From the moment he entered his name into the ring, he was only down by 12%, and that was with almost a quarter of voters going with neither. Hillary consistently polled at about 44% and she ended up with 43%. She basically hit exactly what she was projected to do from the get-go and hit exactly what her target was based on 538's path to the nomination (which Bernie also hit spot on, though considering he's already off pace, his target should have been higher).




1. If Bernie is still losing the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and also loses Puerto Rico, California, New Jersey, and DC down the stretch (all of which are very likely), he'll have a hard time arguing for momentum. In all likelihood, if momentum actually exists, he's going to win New York, Pennsylvania, and cruise to the nomination. If it doesn't exist and he's simply hit a stretch of states that favor him (much like the case was with Hillary just before this recent run), he'll lose New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and the race will be over. For all intents and purposes, momentum will lead him to the delegate win in which case the superdelegates will most likely give him the nomination. If he's losing in terms of pledged delegates, superdelegates will not be swayed by a false narrative of momentum.

2. I think I read that by the end of the primary season, based on current projections, Bernie will have won more "red" states and Hillary will have won more "blue" states, but honestly, I'm not sure why Hillary winning red states is perceived as a bad thing. The blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the nomination, but polls regarding the GOP voters suggest that if Trump is the nominee, states like Utah and Texas are within grasp for the Democrats. There's basically no risk of losing a blue state, but the possibility of flipping a red state or winning all of the swing states should be seen as a good thing.

3. I think this one is the one reasonable argument he'll have if he's losing the popular vote and delegate count as you said. I can't imagine that will be enough though, especially given the counter-argument that this is only the case because the GOP prefers facing Bernie and are therefore don't hate him as much as Hillary yet. And honestly, I think the Democrats believe they have the presidential election basically in the bag even if they were to nominate the "lesser" candidate like Bernie will try to argue that Hillary is. Current projections show her winning the electoral count by near record amounts, and I'm sure they believe Hillary will fight for down-ballot candidates more than Bernie will.

Moreover, I don't think Bernie's recent attacks on Hillary, Obama, and the Democratic party as a whole will play well to the superdelegates.




Quinnipiac has tended to be biased towards Bernie, but that is indeed interesting. The fact that Hillary remains above 50% is obviously troublesome though. For the most part, the gains that Bernie has made hasn't been from converting Hillary supporters. If you look at the polls, Hillary's numbers have basically stagnated throughout the primary season. She doesn't really gain or lose support; Bernie just picks up the undecideds. In Pennsylvania, he'll actually need to convert some of the Hillary supporters, but this poll suggests he may have actually succeeded in that to a degree. It's hard to say for sure though because it's been so long since Quinnipiac's most recent PA poll; Hillary picked up an additional 14% from their last PA poll, but I believe it was back when Biden was still "in the race". New York will really make or break Bernie though. A win there and he has legitimate claims to momentum, and a win there probably propels him to wins in PA and the other big states that he needs. A loss basically ends all mathematical hope.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_32916.pdf


http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-wins-wisconsin-blowout/

BTW I see that you are a financial analyst so I can understand why you may be supporting Hillary.....


Lol, I can assure you that my supporting her has nothing at all to do with Wall Street. I'd tend to support Bernie's platform of trying to reform campaign finance. I hate that you can essentially buy politicians and elections.

And to be clear, I like Bernie. I just prefer Hillary. I'm not a diehard supporter of either, and certainly not someone that loves one and hates the either. I'd say I'm more lukewarm on both.

Edit: Also, just because I currently work as a financial analyst doesn't mean that I want to be a financial analyst. It's just my current job, and my job certainly does not drive my political interests.


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Re: OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#159 » by CJackson » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:16 pm

islanders11040 wrote:


62% Trump supporters think Obama is a muslim while 9% think he is christian. 29% not sure. So 91% dont believe hes christian. What do these people read? :crazy:


but everybody knows all kenyans are muslims. duh
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OT: Bronx Bernie Sanders rally Rosario Dawson, Residente on 3/31 

Post#160 » by machu46 » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:16 pm

CluelessJackson wrote:
machu46 wrote:I've been sick the last few days, so I haven't been keeping up with thread, so I'm just going through and responding to a bunch of posts now...

ToastinKP wrote:
Well being a former first lady may have something to do with it. Bernie Sanders was down over 20 points just a couple of weeks ago and won by almost the same amount. Remember she was the chosen one before the primaries even began. And the DNC even made it easier for her to collect funds. Corruption and cronyism :banghead: Enough is enough!!!!


In Wisconsin? If you look at the polls here: http://www.270towin.com/2016-democratic-nomination/wisconsin-primary

There was never a moment where he was down even close to 20%. From the moment he entered his name into the ring, he was only down by 12%, and that was with almost a quarter of voters going with neither. Hillary consistently polled at about 44% and she ended up with 43%. She basically hit exactly what she was projected to do from the get-go and hit exactly what her target was based on 538's path to the nomination (which Bernie also hit spot on, though considering he's already off pace, his target should have been higher).


HarthorneWingo wrote:

I don't think he can catch her in pledged delegates. The goal is to keep her from getting 2383 and come into the convention with a lot of momentum. I think Bernie's argument at the convention will go something like this:

1. I have Big Mo;

2. I've won mostly in states that we can win in November while HRC has won in states that we're likely to lose in November; and

3. I beat the republican nominee by a significantly greater margin than HRC does because I bring in Independents and moderate republicans.

Not a bad argument.


1. If Bernie is still losing the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and also loses Puerto Rico, California, New Jersey, and DC down the stretch (all of which are very likely), he'll have a hard time arguing for momentum. In all likelihood, if momentum actually exists, he's going to win New York, Pennsylvania, and cruise to the nomination. If it doesn't exist and he's simply hit a stretch of states that favor him (much like the case was with Hillary just before this recent run), he'll lose New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and the race will be over. For all intents and purposes, momentum will lead him to the delegate win in which case the superdelegates will most likely give him the nomination. If he's losing in terms of pledged delegates, superdelegates will not be swayed by a false narrative of momentum.

2. I think I read that by the end of the primary season, based on current projections, Bernie will have won more "red" states and Hillary will have won more "blue" states, but honestly, I'm not sure why Hillary winning red states is perceived as a bad thing. The blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the nomination, but polls regarding the GOP voters suggest that if Trump is the nominee, states like Utah and Texas are within grasp for the Democrats. There's basically no risk of losing a blue state, but the possibility of flipping a red state or winning all of the swing states should be seen as a good thing.

3. I think this one is the one reasonable argument he'll have if he's losing the popular vote and delegate count as you said. I can't imagine that will be enough though, especially given the counter-argument that this is only the case because the GOP prefers facing Bernie and are therefore don't hate him as much as Hillary yet. And honestly, I think the Democrats believe they have the presidential election basically in the bag even if they were to nominate the "lesser" candidate like Bernie will try to argue that Hillary is. Current projections show her winning the electoral count by near record amounts, and I'm sure they believe Hillary will fight for down-ballot candidates more than Bernie will.

Moreover, I don't think Bernie's recent attacks on Hillary, Obama, and the Democratic party as a whole will play well to the superdelegates.


HarthorneWingo wrote:Bernie is en fuego.

http://usuncut.com/news/bernie-sanders-philadelphia/



Quinnipiac has tended to be biased towards Bernie, but that is indeed interesting. The fact that Hillary remains above 50% is obviously troublesome though. For the most part, the gains that Bernie has made hasn't been from converting Hillary supporters. If you look at the polls, Hillary's numbers have basically stagnated throughout the primary season. She doesn't really gain or lose support; Bernie just picks up the undecideds. In Pennsylvania, he'll actually need to convert some of the Hillary supporters, but this poll suggests he may have actually succeeded in that to a degree. It's hard to say for sure though because it's been so long since Quinnipiac's most recent PA poll; Hillary picked up an additional 14% from their last PA poll, but I believe it was back when Biden was still "in the race". New York will really make or break Bernie though. A win there and he has legitimate claims to momentum, and a win there probably propels him to wins in PA and the other big states that he needs. A loss basically ends all mathematical hope.


i do think he has to win ny or pull dead even to show he has the mo. i said before today i thot he could win PA and i still think that. if he wins PA and goes even or better in NY then that would be enuff to crush objections against him being viable as the dem nominee and then he should be able to take away fence sitters from hilary the rest of the way. i said he has a shot and i was right. it is not over yet


I agree. Honestly, I think if he wins New York and PA, he will be the nominee when it's all said and done. I just don't expect him to win either.


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