OT: Democratic Primary Thread

[Clyde_Style]

How hard would it be to register to vote in let's say Georgia? Do I have to prove I've live there or have lived there for x amount of years?

https://www.vote.org/voter-registration-rules/

[Capn'O]

The joke was obvious, but generally speaking when people want to cape for voter suppression they have to pick out anecdotal crap or magnify a tongue-in-cheek post since arguing against mail-in voter fraud on the merits of actual evidence is gonna struggle. The Heritage Foundation to a big swing and a miss trying to justify the voter suppression using data recently. This article breaks down how hard they failed.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/06/02/low-rates-of-fraud-in-vote-by-mail-states-show-the-benefits-outweigh-the-risks/

An Excerpt:

Vote by mail is awesome. I do it in my jammies. Plus, the State sends a booklet where all of the candidates and ballot measures get a policy/statement page. Soooooo informative and easy + no COVID @ the polls!

There is a "silver lining" - or "wake up" call - if you will, to this virus. We need to make a veritable laundry list of changes, no? Maybe we just needed a little nudge, eh?

God willing

[Clyde_Style]

Military leadership signaling hard they are not down with Trump.

Could mean any number of outcomes, but there may be a move within the party to try to coerce Trump into resigning.

[Pointgod]

Fox News poll shows Biden ahead in Arizona, Wisconsin and neck and neck in Ohio.

https://www.seattlepi.com/local/politics/article/Fox-News-polls-battleground-states-Trump-has-a-15317493.php

The polling found ex-Vice President Joe Biden ahead by 45-43% in Ohio, a state that Trump carried by eight points four years ago. Voters in the Buckeye State trust Trump over Biden by 11 points on the economy, but favor Biden by 13 points in handling race relations and give him a six-point advantage on dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Arizona, a state which Trump won by four points in 2016, Biden is ahead by four points, 46% to 42%. The Grand Canyon State has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate just once since 1948, supporting Bill Clinton over Bob Dole in 1996.

Trump won a narrow upset victory in Wisconsin four years ago, and has courted the state ever since. But Fpox found Biden with a 49-40% lead. Badger State voters narrowly prefer Trump on the economy, but give Biden a whopping 14 point lead on responding to the coronavirus, and an even larger 22 point lead on dealing with America's hurting race relations.

[GONYK]

Looks like the Biden campaign is reaching the same conclusion this thread has been discussing for 4 months

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[j4remi]

Looks like the Biden campaign is reaching the same conclusion this thread has been discussing for 4 months

Read on Twitter

?s=19

This is really promising to see

[Clyde_Style]

Biden does have to break through the wall of distraction that Trump creates and that mass media gobbles up and spits out daily

Read on Twitter

[Phish Tank]

Biden does have to break through the wall of distraction that Trump creates and that mass media gobbles up and spits out daily

Read on Twitter

that probably won't change since mass media hasn't learned anything from 2016. Jeff Zucker wants this. The Times wants this.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

[Clyde_Style]

Biden does have to break through the wall of distraction that Trump creates and that mass media gobbles up and spits out daily

Read on Twitter

that probably won't change since mass media hasn't learned anything from 2016. Jeff Zucker wants this. The Times wants this.

You're right, sadly.

The Fifth Estate was once an esteemed concept, but it has been neutered and/or subsumed for profit

Biden gave a strong speech this week and barely a peep from the big outlets. Shameful

[Clyde_Style]

I'd put it at even money between Demings and Harris for the VP pick.

Demings would be the correct choice IMO

[DOT]

Looks like the Biden campaign is reaching the same conclusion this thread has been discussing for 4 months

Read on Twitter

?s=19

This is really promising to see

If they had realized this 4 years ago, we don't even have this situation in the first place

If they forget it in 4 years, we're right back to square 1

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[Clyde_Style]

This morning a neighbor asked me if I'd like to go to church with them.

I said sure.

They took me to a bathroom

WTF?

[Clyde_Style]

Holy Moley, the Antifa meme is running hot within Q Nation. This article is totally fricking bonkers. Worth reading just for the sheer lunacy of it.

Apparently, all it takes is a Facebook message that George Soros is sending two busloads of Antifa from Portland to destroy your town and murder cops to get a big posse of angry white people with semis to show up ready to fight back the enemy.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/klamath-falls-oregon-victory-declared-over-antifa-which-never-showed-n1226681?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email

Moral of the Story:

Trump operatives now have a super nifty way to get armed white people to show up on command anywhere and anytime just by dropping crazy Antifa tips on Facebook and calling in alerts to police hotlines.

How convenient

[Stannis]

I'm still not feeling confident Trump will lose in 2020.

Like mentioned before, Biden is getting little to no media coverage. I myself almost forget that he is running for president in the midst of all this chaos.

I also think this race will come down to Pennsylvania which will be a red.

It's going to be a pretty damn close race, but I think Trump wins barely. My predication:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Axjkm

[Clyde_Style]

I'm still not feeling confident Trump will lose in 2020.

Like mentioned before, Biden is getting little to no media coverage. I myself almost forget that he is running for president in the midst of all this chaos.

I also think this race will come down to Pennsylvania which will be a red.

It's going to be a pretty damn close race, but I think Trump wins barely. My predication:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Axjkm

I see some potentially flawed assumptions with some states in that map, but instead of dissecting it, I'd note that the most recent GOP primaries have had significant signs of protest votes either for other candidates or non-commits.

In NM, Trump was the only one of the ballot, 8.7% voted uncommitted. That's 13,741 Republicans making the time to show their disapproval.

In Indiana, Bill Weld got 8.2% of the vote and 11.8% in Maryland. That is 87,000 Republicans saying they are not down with Trump even though Weld dropped out a long time ago.

In PA, the numbers were Bill Weld got 5.2% from 52,132 voters and Roque De La Fuente got 1.6% from 16,166 GOP primary voters.

There were a few other states, but those are all from June 2 this past week.

Trump's support is eroding. Yes, the law and order thing will work for a small swath of voters on the fence, but the trends are towards defections he can't afford regardless of the response to looting.

I'm very anti-violence as a response and am concerned about it being used against us, but I still see lots of cracks in Trump's support.

The anti-Trump stance by senior military officials this past week was unprecedented. Now Colin Powell is voting for Biden too. This will definitely pick off some more Trump voters. This has never happened and many of these men are esteemed by military and ex-military that may have voted for Trump before.

Professional fence sitters in the GOP Senate known for speaking out both sides of their mouth are now hedging their bets by saying they don't know if they will be able to back Trump in November.

I want Trump to be the GOP nominee, because one of my biggest concerns is they may try to replace him and put a coherent human being in his place and use their delegates to nominate a bastard like Tom Cotton for president.

I think Trump's base amongst civilians and his power base within the establishment are two entirely different things.

Trump will not lose the support of his rabid base in the general population. They're not going anywhere.

But Trump is now in danger of losing his power base in DC and if that crumbles it will likely play out in real time. That collapse in support will manifest in days or a week, not months.

And Trump can't win without the GOP establishment and his army of gun toting fanatics alone.

So the story this Summer is whether or not Trump is pushed out. There is clearly a scenario where Mitch goes to Trump and says resign, otherwise we'll all embarrass you by publicly disavowing you. It's a power move that could blow up in Mitch's face and he knows it, because he also can't afford to alienate Trump's Q Nation.

But Trump will probably flip them all off because he knows indictments are waiting for him as soon as he leaves the safety of the presidency and he probably figures it is better to roll the dice and maybe win. The only way I see him agreeing to a resignation is if the GOP can convince any state attorney generals ready to indict Trump to drop most pending charges against him. And I think that is also a no go.

But there is definitely a weakening of the power base of Trump unfolding in real time now. And he can't win if the GOP fractures and abandons him. There are already too many Republicans rebelling individually and the Q fanatics are not enough for him to win.

[Pointgod]

I'm still not feeling confident Trump will lose in 2020.

Like mentioned before, Biden is getting little to no media coverage. I myself almost forget that he is running for president in the midst of all this chaos.

I also think this race will come down to Pennsylvania which will be a red.

It's going to be a pretty damn close race, but I think Trump wins barely. My predication:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Axjkm

Good you should never feel confident. Everyone should treat this like Biden is down. But there are a lot of positive signs for Biden and Trump still has 5 months to continue to **** up his reputation. This election is going to come down to turnout and everyone should do everything in their power to get Biden elected.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[Jeffrey]

I'd put it at even money between Demings and Harris for the VP pick.

Demings would be the correct choice IMO

Warren is the correct choice, Harris second and Demmings third.

We seriously need an FDR moment here and I'm scared as hell that Biden will lose all of his marbles during this administration.

[Clyde_Style]

I'd put it at even money between Demings and Harris for the VP pick.

Demings would be the correct choice IMO

Warren is the correct choice, Harris second and Demmings third.

We seriously need an FDR moment here and I'm scared as hell that Biden will lose all of his marbles during this administration.

Warren is MY choice, but I do not believe she is going to be given the shot. I honestly believe that it will be a black woman now, thus my post.

I agree we need a New Deal administration now. Warren would be BRILLIANT for that. You don't have to convince me though. Tell Joe.

[Jeff Van Gully]

I'm still not feeling confident Trump will lose in 2020.

Like mentioned before, Biden is getting little to no media coverage. I myself almost forget that he is running for president in the midst of all this chaos.

I also think this race will come down to Pennsylvania which will be a red.

It's going to be a pretty damn close race, but I think Trump wins barely. My predication:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Axjkm

Good you should never feel confident. Everyone should treat this like Biden is down. But there are a lot of positive signs for Biden and Trump still has 5 months to continue to **** up his reputation. This election is going to come down to turnout and everyone should do everything in their power to get Biden elected.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

i actually think the 270 default poll is pretty much exactly how it's going to play out. but i am in no way resting my laurels on it.

and i think texas, florida, georgia, and south carolina are going to go dangerously light pink in addition.