OT: Crypto, Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Investments, IRAs & Finances, etc.

[Stannis]

These days I moved a lot to safe funds. Don't trust anything going on

I made a mistake in my previous post. I meant to say ticker VT not VTI

VTI is similar to VOO.

VT is the "Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares"

Most investors now who are in something like VT over VTI are probably happy now since the recent tariffs imposed are killing the US markets but helping Asian and European stocks.

I'm not in VT, but I've been buying Chinese stocks last few months. I wish I bought European stocks too.

I have had both VT and VTI for a long time. You don’t have to choose

They look different to me. VT has international holdings. However, yes, it does look like VT is still outweighed in mostly US stocks, but I thought that was due to US stocks outperforming the last +20 years.

Hypothetically, if Europe + Asia stocks outperform the next 20 years, wouldn't VT outperform VTI and we'd start seeing VT's top holdings consist of international stocks?

[robillionaire]

I made a mistake in my previous post. I meant to say ticker VT not VTI

VTI is similar to VOO.

VT is the "Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares"

Most investors now who are in something like VT over VTI are probably happy now since the recent tariffs imposed are killing the US markets but helping Asian and European stocks.

I'm not in VT, but I've been buying Chinese stocks last few months. I wish I bought European stocks too.

I have had both VT and VTI for a long time. You don’t have to choose

They look different to me. VT has international holdings. However, yes, it does look like VT is still outweighed in mostly US stocks, but I thought that was due to US stocks outperforming the last +20 years.

Hypothetically, if Europe + Asia stocks outperform the next 20 years, wouldn't VT outperform VTI and we'd start seeing VT's top holdings consist of international stocks?

There’s a good amount over overlap but it gets you some international exposure

[ScienceOfLosing]

Pretty big news, though the choice of ADA leaves a bit to be desired.

Read on Twitter

Making a shipcoin reserve does not excite me. We have a gold reserve because it's the most established store of value in history. I could see a bitcoin reserve as it has the same properties as gold but is digital. All the others have no real proposition value, have large pre-sales with proof of stake mechanisms and while one or two of them might end up long-term reserve assets, they are that now.

It makes the whole space more muddled with the next crypto scam right around the corner.

Paper gold has been manipulated (shorted) for years. Look into GATA there.
I do like Gold, but it is way easier in a digital world to not have to fly/ship a heavy metal.
I don’t think one excludes the other anyway. Nice compliments actually.

I will stick with BTC here, but going forward they also need to aquire AI related projects and some L1 blockchains, RWA projects and industry leaders.

With there being more green energy now, BTC really helps as a form of value to be stored from excess energy. (Because it is proof of work, it needs energy. That is the security.)
No need to pump water up above a dam for later use. Mine an appreciating, fungible, and easy to move money in BTC and be rewarded.

BTC stores value and once it moves into the 10 trillion USD mark or there abouts, it will be much less volatile.

Not having a reserve of Bitcoin and miners, would be suicide for National (digital) security, at least according to this book “ Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin”. The author is a Major in the military and it’s worth noting that the military told him to not talk about BTC any more. True story.

We’re just printing money and are still the World Reserve currency, not buying BTC would be quite stupid. But I said this 10 years ago, and now many bright minds are saying the same thing. (I didn’t see the military significance though.) Not to mention Countries are now both mining and buying it.

[CharlesOakley]

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[aq_ua]

I have had both VT and VTI for a long time. You don’t have to choose

They look different to me. VT has international holdings. However, yes, it does look like VT is still outweighed in mostly US stocks, but I thought that was due to US stocks outperforming the last +20 years.

Hypothetically, if Europe + Asia stocks outperform the next 20 years, wouldn't VT outperform VTI and we'd start seeing VT's top holdings consist of international stocks?

There’s a good amount over overlap but it gets you some international exposure

There is a fair amount of research that suggests international might outperform US domestic over the next 10 years.
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Alternative-Thinking/2025-Capital-Market-Assumptions-for-Major-Asset-Classes
If you're looking to broadly diversify in equities, I don't think you can completely ignore 51% of the total global market cap that resides outside of the US. However, as long as it's something you can stick with over the long-term and not keep chasing the new shiny thing, you should do well in either case.

[rayraypico]

If your not holding XRP you are crazy, yes its been a crap trajectory for years, but way to much upside. I worked in the Banking system for over 10 years, if you fully understand banking you understand why XRP will blow up. Once the SEC case is dropped every bank will utilize XRP. Banks spend billions a year in transfer cost, this will go down significantly by just implementing tokenized transfers of money. XRP will also allow banks to reduce capital they currently hold in foreign fiat currencies which is a necessity in the SWIFT system. Its fairly simply better capital, less holding cost, its a no brainer. I believe Trillions will flow through the XRP Ledger within the next 2 years.

[St Knick]

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Amazing milestone achieved for Bitcoin!
Only a matter of time before both the US increases it's holdings (in a "budget neutral manner"; i.e. sell gold for bitcoin, etc) and other nation states follow suit.

Prisoner's Dilemma game strategy activated.

A bit surprising BTC price hasn't increased as a result, but I've learned the market often does the opposite of what you expect. Nonetheless, this is super positive head wind for a the mid/long-term price prospects of bitcoin.

[RHODEY]

If your not holding XRP you are crazy, yes its been a crap trajectory for years, but way to much upside. I worked in the Banking system for over 10 years, if you fully understand banking you understand why XRP will blow up. Once the SEC case is dropped every bank will utilize XRP. Banks spend billions a year in transfer cost, this will go down significantly by just implementing tokenized transfers of money. XRP will also allow banks to reduce capital they currently hold in foreign fiat currencies which is a necessity in the SWIFT system. Its fairly simply better capital, less holding cost, its a no brainer. I believe Trillions will flow through the XRP Ledger within the next 2 years.

I thought the SEC case versus XRP was already dismissed.

[RHODEY]

[x]

Read on Twitter

[/x]

Amazing milestone achieved for Bitcoin!
Only a matter of time before both the US increases it's holdings (in a "budget neutral manner"; i.e. sell gold for bitcoin, etc) and other nation states follow suit.

Prisoner's Dilemma game strategy activated.

A bit surprising BTC price hasn't increased as a result, but I've learned the market often does the opposite of what you expect. Nonetheless, this is super positive head wind for a the mid/long-term price prospects of bitcoin.

Rumor is he is going to propose no capitol gains tax on "US based" cryptos....

[Stannis]

A bit surprising BTC price hasn't increased as a result, but I've learned the market often does the opposite of what you expect.

To me, it sounds like because adding "legal legitimacy" to Bitcoin can be a bag thing. It'll eventually mean more regulation for the currency, which I thought was never the appeal for Bitcoin. The appeal was always that it was not a government regulated currency.

I believe we already have paper Bitcoin on Wall Street now so hedge funds can artificially manipulate the price

[Stannis]

Bitcoin will only got over 150k once Costco starts selling it.

[CharlesOakley]

I assume the government is going to sell all it's shipcoin holdings to purchase more BTC so those of you hoping for Alt-coin season might be a bit surprised.

The U.S. government could passively generate BTC without increasing spending by earning BTC interest on existing cash reserves or other held assets. I think this announcement will see BTC grow from 2T to 10T over the next 4 years.

Buckle up!

[Stannis]

Oof....

[CharlesOakley]

I know big market drops aren't fun, but we need to let some of the air out of the balloon before it pops. I hope none of you got too badly burned. The good news is we should see interest rates start coming down soon and our national debt payments just got a lot cheaper.

[CharlesOakley]

My unpopular opinion:

Historically, during QE, the Fed purchases large quantities of financial assets, like government bonds or mortgage-backed securities, injecting money into the economy. This increases liquidity—essentially printing money—and lowers interest rates. Banks and financial institutions get this cash first, using it to lend, invest, or buy assets like stocks. his influx of capital pushes the S&P higher as demand for equities rises. Asset holders—those who own stocks, real estate, or other investments—see their wealth grow.

This QE increases the money supply, which devalues the dollar over time. As prices for goods and services rise—think groceries, rent, or gas—the purchasing power of the poor erodes faster than their income can adjust. Meanwhile, asset holders’ wealth, tied to stocks or property, outpaces inflation, widening the wealth gap.

The tariffs should create thousands of high-quality manufacturing jobs over the next few years. We already see commitments from Hyundai (20B), Johnson&Johnson (55B), TSMC (100B) and Stellantis (5B). If manufacturing returns, it means jobs—factory roles paying $30+ an hour, often in Rust Belt states where the working class has been gutted by decades of offshoring. More jobs mean more wages circulating in local economies, not leaking overseas to pay foreign suppliers.

Second, keeping dollars in the U.S. strengthens this effect. When companies source domestically, payments stay within the American financial system rather than funding foreign trade deficits. This could bolster the dollar’s value long-term, reducing reliance on imported inflation. For the working class, this translates to more stable purchasing power compared to a world where cheap imports mask wage stagnation.

Tariffs are also a strong negotiation tool to force other countries to lower their tariffs. If this works, we will see demand for US goods abroad increase, which could encourage even more manufacturing growth. There is definitely risk - China, sitting on a $400 billion trade surplus with the US, could dig in, escalating a trade war—higher prices, fewer exports, and a hit to both workers and markets.

The benefits aren’t instant—short-term inflation from pricier goods could sting, with estimates of a 1-2% CPI bump in 2025. But over a decade, if tariffs stick and manufacturing takes root, job growth could outpace that pain.

The top 10% wealthiest people own 90% of U.S. equities. Given that the tariffs look to cause growth in the middle-class at the expense of the wealthy, I'm still optimistic.

PS

BTC is showing itself as a superior store of value compared the the S&P

[aq_ua]

I know big market drops aren't fun, but we need to let some of the air out of the balloon before it pops. I hope none of you got too badly burned. The good news is we should see interest rates start coming down soon and our national debt payments just got a lot cheaper.

In general, tarifs tend to be inflationary so it seems unlikely rates come down as quickly as they were expected to before. I’m also not sure this is valuation adjustment (i.e. multiples contraction / increased equity risk premium) or simply reduced forecasted cash flows. Probably a mix of both but weighted towards the latter. Either way, it looks like it will be quite a while until this new arrangement in world trade finds its footing.

[Rasho Brezec]

Should've shorted the market.

[dakomish23]

My unpopular opinion:

Historically, during QE, the Fed purchases large quantities of financial assets, like government bonds or mortgage-backed securities, injecting money into the economy. This increases liquidity—essentially printing money—and lowers interest rates. Banks and financial institutions get this cash first, using it to lend, invest, or buy assets like stocks. his influx of capital pushes the S&P higher as demand for equities rises. Asset holders—those who own stocks, real estate, or other investments—see their wealth grow.

This QE increases the money supply, which devalues the dollar over time. As prices for goods and services rise—think groceries, rent, or gas—the purchasing power of the poor erodes faster than their income can adjust. Meanwhile, asset holders’ wealth, tied to stocks or property, outpaces inflation, widening the wealth gap.

The tariffs should create thousands of high-quality manufacturing jobs over the next few years. We already see commitments from Hyundai (20B), Johnson&Johnson (55B), TSMC (100B) and Stellantis (5B). If manufacturing returns, it means jobs—factory roles paying $30+ an hour, often in Rust Belt states where the working class has been gutted by decades of offshoring. More jobs mean more wages circulating in local economies, not leaking overseas to pay foreign suppliers.

Second, keeping dollars in the U.S. strengthens this effect. When companies source domestically, payments stay within the American financial system rather than funding foreign trade deficits. This could bolster the dollar’s value long-term, reducing reliance on imported inflation. For the working class, this translates to more stable purchasing power compared to a world where cheap imports mask wage stagnation.

Tariffs are also a strong negotiation tool to force other countries to lower their tariffs. If this works, we will see demand for US goods abroad increase, which could encourage even more manufacturing growth. There is definitely risk - China, sitting on a $400 billion trade surplus with the US, could dig in, escalating a trade war—higher prices, fewer exports, and a hit to both workers and markets.

The benefits aren’t instant—short-term inflation from pricier goods could sting, with estimates of a 1-2% CPI bump in 2025. But over a decade, if tariffs stick and manufacturing takes root, job growth could outpace that pain.

The top 10% wealthiest people own 90% of U.S. equities. Given that the tariffs look to cause growth in the middle-class at the expense of the wealthy, I'm still optimistic.

PS

BTC is showing itself as a superior store of value compared the the S&P

Conservative tariff wars fail b/c they don’t invest in industrial policy to meet the demands for goods. They always just free market it.

Tariffs for the sake of tariffs is a foolish errand. There is no financial end game here that benefits the bottom 90%

[CharlesOakley]

Conservative tariff wars fail b/c they don’t invest in industrial policy to meet the demands for goods. They always just free market it.

Tariffs for the sake of tariffs is a foolish errand. There is no financial end game here that benefits the bottom 90%

That's an astute point. There will need to be government investment to bring manufacturing back.

During Covid we saw the global supply chains snap under stress and realized that outsourcing all manufacturing and a lot of agriculture isn’t just an economic gamble; it’s a security hole. Chip manufacturing, medical supplies and rare earth minerals were examples of major national security issues. We realized that the need for some capacity at home, especially for strategic goods, isn’t optional anymore.

Self-reliance isn’t nostalgia; it’s survival.

[Strick]

Tomorrow is going to be an absolute blood bath I fear. Could be an all-time bad day