OT: Russia-Ukraine War

[Clyde_Style]

We'd all like to think Putin will lose, get replaced, can't win in the Ukraine. I don't believe any of that.

He's the kind of guy who will be all in.
The Russian army might be largely conscript and have issues, but it's a large army with lots of bombs nonetheless.

I figure Putin now sees "winning" outright in the Ukraine won't be easy or fast. This is my guess on the next steps:

Level every Ukraine city.
Raise the misery index there to unprecedented levels.
Cause a humanitarian crises in western Europe, which generally leads to the rise of right wing nationalism and fascism. Win.
Create a huge, destabilized sh*tshow in Ukraine, so it's not a threat militarily or economically for a good 10+ years.
Putin won't have an issue with X number of GI Ivans getting sent home in a bag for 10 years, possibly longer.
Putin hopes that pro Russian lackey can be found to rule over the ruins of Ukraine.

Some variation of this.

I’ll take the opposite position:

I don’t believe you can win a war that your soldiers don’t believe in fighting for. Moreover, their losing their generals on the ground, etc. The Ukrainians will fight to the last man. Meanwhile, Russians are getting squeezed at home.

And I'd add that I don't think Putin will escape the designs of his enemies within. I know Buzz thinks Putin can't be reached and either apprehended or assassinated, but I hope this is not true. It doesn't mean he'd get replaced by good guys, but they would probably cease hostilities and figure out another path.

[thebuzzardman]

We'd all like to think Putin will lose, get replaced, can't win in the Ukraine. I don't believe any of that.

He's the kind of guy who will be all in.
The Russian army might be largely conscript and have issues, but it's a large army with lots of bombs nonetheless.

I figure Putin now sees "winning" outright in the Ukraine won't be easy or fast. This is my guess on the next steps:

Level every Ukraine city.
Raise the misery index there to unprecedented levels.
Cause a humanitarian crises in western Europe, which generally leads to the rise of right wing nationalism and fascism. Win.
Create a huge, destabilized sh*tshow in Ukraine, so it's not a threat militarily or economically for a good 10+ years.
Putin won't have an issue with X number of GI Ivans getting sent home in a bag for 10 years, possibly longer.
Putin hopes that pro Russian lackey can be found to rule over the ruins of Ukraine.

Some variation of this.

I’ll take the opposite position:

I don’t believe you can win a war that your soldiers don’t believe in fighting for. Moreover, their losing their generals on the ground, etc. The Ukrainians will fight to the last man. Meanwhile, Russians are getting squeezed at home.

I'd like to believe this and the logistic issues, but I think Putin will take a good crack at breaking the Ukraine, where he handicaps them for quite a while. If you can't win, f*ck sh*t up and hope for the best.

If there are logistical and morale issues, I'd expect the bombings and rocketing to really step up, to accomplish the above as soon as possible.

I'm encouraged by some of the reports, but I don't completely trust the motivation or the knowledge of the media when covering this war.

Has anyone else noticed the reporting on it is really scant and superficial?
I get it's not a US conflict etc, but it's weird.
The Wall Street Journal actually does well, and after that, for me, I have to go to BBC or maybe The Guardian. Everything else USA based kind of sucks.

[HarthorneWingo]

We'd all like to think Putin will lose, get replaced, can't win in the Ukraine. I don't believe any of that.

He's the kind of guy who will be all in.
The Russian army might be largely conscript and have issues, but it's a large army with lots of bombs nonetheless.

I figure Putin now sees "winning" outright in the Ukraine won't be easy or fast. This is my guess on the next steps:

Level every Ukraine city.
Raise the misery index there to unprecedented levels.
Cause a humanitarian crises in western Europe, which generally leads to the rise of right wing nationalism and fascism. Win.
Create a huge, destabilized sh*tshow in Ukraine, so it's not a threat militarily or economically for a good 10+ years.
Putin won't have an issue with X number of GI Ivans getting sent home in a bag for 10 years, possibly longer.
Putin hopes that pro Russian lackey can be found to rule over the ruins of Ukraine.

Some variation of this.

I’ll take the opposite position:

I don’t believe you can win a war that your soldiers don’t believe in fighting for. Moreover, their losing their generals on the ground, etc. The Ukrainians will fight to the last man. Meanwhile, Russians are getting squeezed at home.

And I'd add that I don't think Putin will escape the designs of his enemies within. I know Buzz thinks Putin can't be reached and either apprehended or assassinated, but I hope this is not true. It doesn't mean he'd get replaced by good guys, but they would probably cease hostilities and figure out another path.

Yup, I’m in the assassinate Putin camp. I would prefer he be taken alive to stand trial at The Hague but I just don’t see that happening.

[thebuzzardman]

We'd all like to think Putin will lose, get replaced, can't win in the Ukraine. I don't believe any of that.

He's the kind of guy who will be all in.
The Russian army might be largely conscript and have issues, but it's a large army with lots of bombs nonetheless.

I figure Putin now sees "winning" outright in the Ukraine won't be easy or fast. This is my guess on the next steps:

Level every Ukraine city.
Raise the misery index there to unprecedented levels.
Cause a humanitarian crises in western Europe, which generally leads to the rise of right wing nationalism and fascism. Win.
Create a huge, destabilized sh*tshow in Ukraine, so it's not a threat militarily or economically for a good 10+ years.
Putin won't have an issue with X number of GI Ivans getting sent home in a bag for 10 years, possibly longer.
Putin hopes that pro Russian lackey can be found to rule over the ruins of Ukraine.

Some variation of this.

I’ll take the opposite position:

I don’t believe you can win a war that your soldiers don’t believe in fighting for. Moreover, their losing their generals on the ground, etc. The Ukrainians will fight to the last man. Meanwhile, Russians are getting squeezed at home.

And I'd add that I don't think Putin will escape the designs of his enemies within. I know Buzz thinks Putin can't be reached and either apprehended or assassinated, but I hope this is not true. It doesn't mean he'd get replaced by good guys, but they would probably cease hostilities and figure out another path.

I don't think all the extra intel you mentioned matters. Intel is something to serve the state. Putin controls the state, but more importantly controls the important people who control it. And he'll get info too, in terms of who is plotting.

Again, I'd wish he'd die and solve everything, but he'll be making strong moves killing lots of opponents before that happens.
He didn't get to where he is and stay there without being ruthless.

[Clyde_Style]

I’ll take the opposite position:

I don’t believe you can win a war that your soldiers don’t believe in fighting for. Moreover, their losing their generals on the ground, etc. The Ukrainians will fight to the last man. Meanwhile, Russians are getting squeezed at home.

And I'd add that I don't think Putin will escape the designs of his enemies within. I know Buzz thinks Putin can't be reached and either apprehended or assassinated, but I hope this is not true. It doesn't mean he'd get replaced by good guys, but they would probably cease hostilities and figure out another path.

I don't think all the extra intel you mentioned matters. Intel is something to serve the state. Putin controls the state, but more importantly controls the important people who control it. And he'll get info too, in terms of who is plotting.

Again, I'd wish he'd die and solve everything, but he'll be making strong moves killing lots of opponents before that happens.
He didn't get to where he is and stay there without being ruthless.

There are clearly no limits on what he is capable of. I think we all agree on that. Well, praying he gets taken out

[thebuzzardman]

In other news:

https://crooksandliars.com/2022/03/roger-stone-climbs-pro-russia-train-claims

"Ukraine is not even remotely about what they're telling us," the former Trump adviser said. "Ukraine is about the fact that the Ukrainians have used their soil to place dual launch missile pads, missiles that would be aimed at the Soviet Union. There are, in fact, biolabs* there funded by our tax dollars cooking up who knows what pestilence to dump on the Russian people."

"Putin is acting defensively," he added. "He is not acting offensively. But you won't read that in the mainstream media and you won't hear it anyplace but Real America's Voice."

Sounds familiar

[thebuzzardman]

It's amusing the lunatic right wing of America stole all the lunatic left talking points about American from 50 years ago, the ones they so vociferously hated the left for holding.

Fascinating.

[Clyde_Style]

In other news:

https://crooksandliars.com/2022/03/roger-stone-climbs-pro-russia-train-claims

"Ukraine is not even remotely about what they're telling us," the former Trump adviser said. "Ukraine is about the fact that the Ukrainians have used their soil to place dual launch missile pads, missiles that would be aimed at the Soviet Union. There are, in fact, biolabs* there funded by our tax dollars cooking up who knows what pestilence to dump on the Russian people."

"Putin is acting defensively," he added. "He is not acting offensively. But you won't read that in the mainstream media and you won't hear it anyplace but Real America's Voice."

Sounds familiar

Jesus, these kuntz keep egging their own faces. Well, Stone's time in the barrel is coming soon. His political nine lives have been used up.

[Clyde_Style]

It's amusing the lunatic right wing of America stole all the lunatic left talking points about American from 50 years ago, the ones they so vociferously hated the left for holding.

Fascinating.

The phrase I grew up hearing sure ain't the same anymore:

If you love Russia so much why don't you go live there?!

[Clyde_Style]

This is pretty wild

Paul Manafort got popped at the airport and deboarded from the plane he was taking to Dubai for having an expired passport

Manafort was Putin’s man 100%. He was installed into the Trump campaign to replace Lewandowski and Manafort was the one who pulled the switcheroo stalled plane in Indy trick on Trump to pitch him on Pence for VP instead of Christie who had been promised the slot already by Trump. Well, Pence’s brother was the front man for Caterpillar in Russia, one of their biggest customers. Russia bought many tractors. And Pence has a direct relationship with the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church who is a Putin ally.

But it goes well beyond that. Manafort was THE guy Putin’s oligarchs hired as their political fixer in UKRAINE. Manafort was behind the election of Putin’s choice to lead Ukraine.

Guess the Russian-Ukraine dirt was too hot to sit on and he tried to flee the country. They must have taken all of his legit passports when he went to jail.

[thebuzzardman]

This is pretty wild

Paul Manafort got popped at the airport and deboarded from the plane he was taking to Dubai for having an expired passport

Manafort was Putin’s man 100%. He was installed into the Trump campaign to replace Lewandowski and Manafort was the one who pulled the switcheroo stalled plane in Indy trick on Trump to pitch him on Pence for VP instead of Christie who had been promised the slot already by Trump. Well, Pence’s brother was the front man for Caterpillar in Russia, one of their biggest customers. Russia bought many tractors. And Pence has a direct relationship with the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church who is a Putin ally.

But it goes well beyond that. Manafort was THE guy Putin’s oligarchs hired as their political fixer in UKRAINE. Manafort was behind the election of Putin’s choice to lead Ukraine.

Guess the Russian-Ukraine dirt was too hot to sit on and he tried to flee the country. They must have taken all of his legit passports when he went to jail.

There's a lot o' oligarchs in Dubai. I bet he was going there for some mo' wheeling and dealing.

[HarthorneWingo]

We'd all like to think Putin will lose, get replaced, can't win in the Ukraine. I don't believe any of that.

He's the kind of guy who will be all in.
The Russian army might be largely conscript and have issues, but it's a large army with lots of bombs nonetheless.

I figure Putin now sees "winning" outright in the Ukraine won't be easy or fast. This is my guess on the next steps:

Level every Ukraine city.
Raise the misery index there to unprecedented levels.
Cause a humanitarian crises in western Europe, which generally leads to the rise of right wing nationalism and fascism. Win.
Create a huge, destabilized sh*tshow in Ukraine, so it's not a threat militarily or economically for a good 10+ years.
Putin won't have an issue with X number of GI Ivans getting sent home in a bag for 10 years, possibly longer.
Putin hopes that pro Russian lackey can be found to rule over the ruins of Ukraine.

Some variation of this.

I’ll take the opposite position:

I don’t believe you can win a war that your soldiers don’t believe in fighting for. Moreover, their losing their generals on the ground, etc. The Ukrainians will fight to the last man. Meanwhile, Russians are getting squeezed at home.

I'd like to believe this and the logistic issues, but I think Putin will take a good crack at breaking the Ukraine, where he handicaps them for quite a while. If you can't win, f*ck sh*t up and hope for the best.

If there are logistical and morale issues, I'd expect the bombings and rocketing to really step up, to accomplish the above as soon as possible.

I'm encouraged by some of the reports, but I don't completely trust the motivation or the knowledge of the media when covering this war.

Has anyone else noticed the reporting on it is really scant and superficial?
I get it's not a US conflict etc, but it's weird.
The Wall Street Journal actually does well, and after that, for me, I have to go to BBC or maybe The Guardian. Everything else USA based kind of sucks.

TBH, I really can’t watch much TV coverage, if at all, of this war. Too depressing. I scroll The NY Times for headlines maybe HuffPost … and here! The Guardian is excellent. I would also highly recommend The American Prospect.

https://prospect.org/

[Clyde_Style]

This is pretty wild

Paul Manafort got popped at the airport and deboarded from the plane he was taking to Dubai for having an expired passport

Manafort was Putin’s man 100%. He was installed into the Trump campaign to replace Lewandowski and Manafort was the one who pulled the switcheroo stalled plane in Indy trick on Trump to pitch him on Pence for VP instead of Christie who had been promised the slot already by Trump. Well, Pence’s brother was the front man for Caterpillar in Russia, one of their biggest customers. Russia bought many tractors. And Pence has a direct relationship with the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church who is a Putin ally.

But it goes well beyond that. Manafort was THE guy Putin’s oligarchs hired as their political fixer in UKRAINE. Manafort was behind the election of Putin’s choice to lead Ukraine.

Guess the Russian-Ukraine dirt was too hot to sit on and he tried to flee the country. They must have taken all of his legit passports when he went to jail.

There's a lot o' oligarchs in Dubai. I bet he was going there for some mo' wheeling and dealing.

Sure, more schemes to workaround the sanctions. But if he is going to help these wealthy men then how come they couldn’t assist him in getting out of the country? Seems reckless and doomed to failure

EDIT: I suppose he couldn’t reveal to them his circumstances otherwise they’d say WTF how can you help us now? Anyway, like a pig to the trough, guys like Manafort run to the dirty money

Still, I wonder if something else was in play that spooked him, because the war in Ukraine must have touched him in some way considering his dirty work in that country

[8516knicks]

In other news:

https://crooksandliars.com/2022/03/roger-stone-climbs-pro-russia-train-claims

"Ukraine is not even remotely about what they're telling us," the former Trump adviser said. "Ukraine is about the fact that the Ukrainians have used their soil to place dual launch missile pads, missiles that would be aimed at the Soviet Union. There are, in fact, biolabs* there funded by our tax dollars cooking up who knows what pestilence to dump on the Russian people."

"Putin is acting defensively," he added. "He is not acting offensively. But you won't read that in the mainstream media and you won't hear it anyplace but Real America's Voice."

Sounds familiar

That Manafort guy sure gets around, doesn't he?

[lloydj]

https://www.balkanstimes.eu/2022/03/23/why-so-many-russian-generals-have-been-killed-in-ukraine-war-2/

President Vladimir Putin might not be admitting it but he’s haemorrhaging generals – and there’s a very stark reason why.

President Vladimir Putin’s generals are getting picked off, one by one.

Six senior commanders have reportedly been killed in the first three weeks of the Ukraine war. And the reasons reveal catastrophic corruption and incompetence at the highest levels.

Unreliable electronics. A burgeoning black market. Subordinates too terrified to make decisions.

I was discussing this with someone. He stated that the Russians have really unreliable encrypted radios, forcing too many of their troops onto Cell phones, where the Ukranians are intercepting the calls and then targeting columns and generals. He figures a sh*t ton of Colonel level types are dead too but that's not making the news.

I figure there is some 5 Eyes help going on feeding intel to the Ukranians, though I'm sure there's a level they can do on their own.

I figure everyone knows what 5 Eyes is, but if not:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes

I should say 5 Eyes + NATO intel

Watch on YouTube

[thebuzzardman]

Read on Twitter

[thebuzzardman]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin

Aleksandr Gelyevich Dugin (Russian: Александр Гельевич Дугин; born 7 January 1962) is a Russian political analyst and strategist known for his fascist views.[5][6][7][8][9] He was the main organizer of the National Bolshevik Party, National Bolshevik Front, and the Eurasia Party. He also served as an advisor to the State Duma speaker Gennadiy Seleznyov[10] and a leading member of the ruling United Russia party, Sergey Naryshkin.[11] Dugin is the author of more than 30 books, among them Foundations of Geopolitics (1997) and The Fourth Political Theory (2009). He is believed to have been the brains behind Russia's annexation of Crimea,[12] as part of his advocacy for Ukraine becoming “a purely administrative sector of the Russian centralized state.” which he calls Novorossiya.[13]

Relationships with radical groups in other countries
Dugin made contact with the French far-right thinker Alain de Benoist in 1990.[91] Around the same time he also met the Belgian Jean-François Thiriart and Yves Lacoste.[92] In 1992 he invited some of the European far-right figures he had met into Russia.[93] He has also has brought members of Jobbik and Golden Dawn to Russia in order to strengthen their ties to the country.[94] According to the book War for Eternity by Benjamin R. Teitelbaum, Dugin met Steve Bannon in Rome in 2018 to discuss Russia's geopolitical relationships with the United States and China, as well as Traditionalist philosophy.[95] Dugin also developed links with far-right and far-left political parties in the European Union, including Syriza in Greece, Ataka in Bulgaria, the Freedom Party of Austria, and Front National in France, to influence EU policy on Ukraine and Russia.[75][96][97][98] Dugin is also closely aligned with Israeli journalist Avigdor Eskin, who previously served on the board of Dugin's Eurasia Party.[99]

[Clyde_Style]

Read on Twitter

I found TKF and it seems they are pro-Ukrainian even if they don't support the Knicks any longer

Read on Twitter

Probably significant as it appears to have been transporting large amounts of ammo to Russian forces

Three other Russian ships were reported to be on fire and attempting to leave the port while under attack.

The Port of Berdyansk has been Russia's primary staging area from the coastal area. Losing control of the port may make it impossible to funnel supplies into the region, thus is sounds like it would be very difficult to maintain control of the coast if Ukraine controls the Port.

[HarthorneWingo]

Europe needs to cut down on its use of, i.e. stop buying, Russian energy products if we want to really strangle Russia economically.

[Clyde_Style]

Europe needs to cut down on its use of, i.e. stop buying, Russian energy products if we want to really strangle Russia economically.

It won't be overnight, but it does appear Russian oil will lose most of its major Euro buyers as they plot their transition away from Russian oil contracts. This will also accelerate Euro alternative energy initiatives which is a good side effect for the planet