OT: Crypto, Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Investments, IRAs & Finances, etc.

[SWYM]

We were at that number in 2009. It's possible. Why does the breakout have to happen by next week? Is that some kind of technical timing tell or is it because the earnings reports start coming out?

Pension funds will be in a world of hurt. Likely the reason the FED keeps pumping but at what point does that tactic not work or start to hurt.

My charts are time dependent. If we start dropping hard next week then I'll have to redo my charts.

I'd like to learn about technical analysis. Do you have any advice on the best sources/tools for learning about them? Which indicators in general do you key in on? Thanks for any help you can give me.

Since market is dominated by algos, TA can be useful right?

Well, with unprecedented vol, algos go into hiding so throw the barely useable TA stuff out the window.

Use common sense, analyze where the bodies lie, use good portfolio management and discipline.

[Dantares]

We were at that number in 2009. It's possible. Why does the breakout have to happen by next week? Is that some kind of technical timing tell or is it because the earnings reports start coming out?

Pension funds will be in a world of hurt. Likely the reason the FED keeps pumping but at what point does that tactic not work or start to hurt.

My charts are time dependent. If we start dropping hard next week then I'll have to redo my charts.

I'd like to learn about technical analysis. Do you have any advice on the best sources/tools for learning about them? Which indicators in general do you key in on? Thanks for any help you can give me.

sorry I know the question was for Garbagelo. But maybe I can point you in the right direction. Start with the book Candlesticks for dummies. You can skim it until you get the general idea, it will help you identify basic patterns(dont worry too much about the complicated patterns the book goes over). then study Fibonacci levels, trendlines, moving averages, support and resistance, you can find all that for free using online resources. then go to inthemoneystocks.com and take their webinar. It may take you 6 months to a year or maybe even sooner to figure out technical analysis but you will be able to see patterns at light speed eventually.

and remember this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! if price is below the 200 day simple MA then your bearish pattern setups are more likely to work. If price is above the 200 day simple MA then bullish patterns are more likely to work out

[Garbagelo]

We were at that number in 2009. It's possible. Why does the breakout have to happen by next week? Is that some kind of technical timing tell or is it because the earnings reports start coming out?

Pension funds will be in a world of hurt. Likely the reason the FED keeps pumping but at what point does that tactic not work or start to hurt.

My charts are time dependent. If we start dropping hard next week then I'll have to redo my charts.

I'd like to learn about technical analysis. Do you have any advice on the best sources/tools for learning about them? Which indicators in general do you key in on? Thanks for any help you can give me.

Personally I learned it on my own while jumping into the fire and trading. Started about 10 years ago.

Here is a basic breakdown of most of what you need to know:

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=overview:ta_101

Of course there are other schools of thought such as cycles and elliott wave but that is more advanced

[Blockwatcher]

You guys arent worried about hyperinflation?

We have pretty much ensured hyperinflation, probably not short term but within a few years, especially if we don't recover from this downturn. Most money ever printed in this short period of time ever in the history of the world.

I put some money in crypto and consider that a long-term investment.

I'm not an expert, i only know what i hear so this is really a question in the form of a statement. Once hyperinflation hits the fed is going to establish their own crypto, (a 1 world currency) . At that point (if not before) they will go after other competing cryptos and wipe them out. Accurate?

[Jethrobodine123]

Technical analysis can be helpful up to a certain point but it's no panacea. These are not real markets and they haven't been for many many years now. They've been held up by the Fed and financial engineering so I would be very careful with investing any money, especially since the virus crisis has hit. They were due for a downfall, a very serious one at that but this crisis has changed EVERYTHING and the ramifications will be felt for many years to come.

It was one hell of a party and they kept it going much longer than anyone thought they could only because they spent everything they had to keep it going. They didn't save anything for a rainy day, well now we're in one hell of a Hurricane. The only thing they can do is literally buy stocks to prop the market up or at least stop the downfall. It will be a roller coaster of a market but unless science comes up with a miracle they will fail in keeping averages from crumbling to a low few people would think possible.

I like being positive as much as they guy but I consider myself an emotional optimist and an intellectual realist. When investing your own or other peoples life savings one must deal with the realities that we have before us. It's going to get very interesting, that is one thing I know for sure.

Good luck to all.

Jethro

[CharlesOakley]

We were at that number in 2009. It's possible. Why does the breakout have to happen by next week? Is that some kind of technical timing tell or is it because the earnings reports start coming out?

Pension funds will be in a world of hurt. Likely the reason the FED keeps pumping but at what point does that tactic not work or start to hurt.

My charts are time dependent. If we start dropping hard next week then I'll have to redo my charts.

I'd like to learn about technical analysis. Do you have any advice on the best sources/tools for learning about them? Which indicators in general do you key in on? Thanks for any help you can give me.

I use the Wyckoff Method to trade. I've made a decent side income for the last 6 years (up six figures in that time). No indicators, just price and volume. It takes a ton of work to get good at trading (a lot of it is working on your own psychology). I traded a sim account for 1.5 years before I put actual money in the game.

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

[Garbagelo]

We have pretty much ensured hyperinflation, probably not short term but within a few years, especially if we don't recover from this downturn. Most money ever printed in this short period of time ever in the history of the world.

I put some money in crypto and consider that a long-term investment.

I'm not an expert, i only know what i hear so this is really a question in the form of a statement. Once hyperinflation hits the fed is going to establish their own crypto, (a 1 world currency) . At that point (if not before) they will go after other competing cryptos and wipe them out. Accurate?

Doubt it

Once the fed releases their crypto, it would add so much liquidity into bitcoin especially if it becomes tradeable on exchanges

[Garbagelo]

Incredible stock market crash. its may take years for everyones 401k's to recover all their losses.

Do you think we bottomed? I'm guessing when the quarterlies come out there will be another downswing. And I'm not sure an extended shutdown is priced in yet.

The charts don't support anymore upside yet unless we breakout above 2650 in SPX and even if it does, the upside is maybe 5% or so before another test

If it doesn't break that point, expect us to go much lower

There is no need to rush to get back in, the scenario is still unclear

Looks like my charts are still intact, we are headed to 2650 spy after gaining 3.61% today up to 2617. I see maybe 1 or 2 days left before we start the next wave down, if I am not already front ran.

[Dantares]

Do you think we bottomed? I'm guessing when the quarterlies come out there will be another downswing. And I'm not sure an extended shutdown is priced in yet.

The charts don't support anymore upside yet unless we breakout above 2650 in SPX and even if it does, the upside is maybe 5% or so before another test

If it doesn't break that point, expect us to go much lower

There is no need to rush to get back in, the scenario is still unclear

Looks like my charts are still intact, we are headed to 2650 spy after gaining 3.61% today up to 2617. I see maybe 1 or 2 days left before we start the next wave down, if I am not already front ran.

stock futures down I think it was front ran

[HighRyzer83]

How low will NASDAQ ETFs go before they rebound. I am waiting for bottom price, or did I lose my chance?

[Stannis]

How low will NASDAQ ETFs go before they rebound. I am waiting for bottom price, or did I lose my chance?

Nobody really knows. Hate to be a d*ck, but if they did, they probably wouldn't tell us either.

You just have to ask yourself why the market is going down (Coronavirus), and is there anything out there right now that will stop the coronavirus and the fear surrounding it. As of right now, there is not. We still can't even get majority of people tested. I work in a rural area, and we are still required to work on site so the fear hasn't really hit us yet. Once the virus spreads more (no data tells me it won't) into these areas yet to be affected, there will be more fear, and more market declines.

In my opinion, there will be more declines for sure. But I don't know when the bottom will be. So you are just best off dollar-cost-averaging on the way down.

I don't think you missed your chance. But you are likely to dig yourself deeper waiting for the bottom. Because if we truly "bottom", we are likely to get a huge rally the next day and you will be telling yourself "I missed my chance" again.

A couple of weeks ago, many thought there was going more decline after the 10% drops (that's what I thought). Then we rallied last week. And I was pissed I didn't buy more.

Yea, I know, I'm not much help. But basically just saying the cliche about getting time in the market and not trying to time the market.

EDIT: I'm basically myself the same question, but with oil. It's down so much, has it really bottomed? I really don't know, and I don't think anybody really knows. I just decided now might be a good time to dollar cost average.

[HighRyzer83]

How low will NASDAQ ETFs go before they rebound. I am waiting for bottom price, or did I lose my chance?

Nobody really knows. Hate to be a d*ck, but if they did, they probably wouldn't tell us either.

You just have to ask yourself why the market is going down (Coronavirus), and is there anything out there right now that will stop the coronavirus and the fear surrounding it. As of right now, there is not. We still can't even get majority of people tested. I work in a rural area, and we are still required to work on site so the fear hasn't really hit us yet. Once the virus spreads more (no data tells me it won't) into these areas yet to be affected, there will be more fear, and more market declines.

In my opinion, there will be more declines for sure. But I don't know when the bottom will be. So you are just best off dollar-cost-averaging on the way down.

I don't think you missed your chance. But you are likely to dig yourself deeper waiting for the bottom. Because if we truly "bottom", we are likely to get a huge rally the next day and you will be telling yourself "I missed my chance" again.

A couple of weeks ago, many thought there was going more decline after the 10% drops (that's what I thought). Then we rallied last week. And I was pissed I didn't buy more.

Yea, I know, I'm not much help. But basically just saying the cliche about getting time in the market and not trying to time the market.

EDIT: I'm basically myself the same question, but with oil. It's down so much, has it really bottomed? I really don't know, and I don't think anybody really knows. I just decided now might be a good time to dollar cost average.

Thanks man good info! You're right, I'm going to buy in increments.
As for oil, I really don't think it holds value like some people still believe anymore. People valued oil so much that this sentiment still resides. They told us buy more as soon as it drops. But the world has changed, as did our ability to produce oil and natural gas. This will not go away, it will become more efficient if anything. So i focus more on the NASDAQ because it has consistently been the top perfomer. Like VGT and qqq for example, and I diversify by caps. This has been working for me tremendously well the last 5 years. What do you think?

[Stannis]

Thanks man good info! You're right, I'm going to buy in increments.
As for oil, I really don't think it holds value like some people still believe anymore. People valued oil so much that this sentiment still resides. They told us buy more as soon as it drops. But the world has changed, as did our ability to produce oil and natural gas. This will not go away, it will become more efficient if anything. So i focus more on the NASDAQ because it has consistently been the top perfomer. Like VGT and qqq for example, and I diversify by caps. This has been working for me tremendously well the last 5 years. What do you think?

Oil just looks so damn appealing right now with the low prices. Especially for me. I just started investing like 6 months ago, so most of my holdings are considered overvalued. Only other sector that I can think of that is generally undervalued is tobacco.

I don't plan on it being any more than 5% of my portfolio, that's for sure. But I do expect us to see another oil/natural gas boom.

I like VGT and QQQ a lot. I don't do ETFs atm other than my 401k, but my best holdings so far are usually in VGT and QQQ.

I still don't know why the NASDAQ is viewed as the riskier index. Dow Jones is crap (to me), S&P500 is good. But I feel QQQ is the clear winner. I get the dot com bubble probably hurt its reputation, but I don't see that happening again. I wish my 401k had some tech or a Nasdaq fund.

[CharlesOakley]

Looks to me like the pullback in the S&P(ES) is complete and we will head back down to test last Monday’s high at 2386 at a minimum. I hope everyone is being careful and making money.

[Garbagelo]

Looks to me like the pullback in the S&P(ES) is complete and we will head back down to test last Monday’s high at 2386 at a minimum. I hope everyone is being careful and making money.

not so fast, I wouldn't call it yet

we are start to see a drop in cases especially in europe

[stopstandthere]

HKEX, Stock Code 5 has dropped below 40, that is a new low in a decade.

[aq_ua]

Looks to me like the pullback in the S&P(ES) is complete and we will head back down to test last Monday’s high at 2386 at a minimum. I hope everyone is being careful and making money.

not so fast, I wouldn't call it yet

we are start to see a drop in cases especially in europe

It's dangerous to call a trough or a recovery - I strongly believe this is still a cautious period when you can buy at a slow pace, but by no means should you be chasing prices for the sake of FOMO.

[Jethrobodine123]

What we just went through is classic end of quarter rebalancing. I expect more downside coming up even with the Fed in the markets trying to prop it up but they won't be successful.

GLTA

Jethro

[Garbagelo]

once again, figured the Fed would try to fight this to the bitter end from collapsing

tomorrow and monday are gonna be insane

[Dantares]

once again, figured the Fed would try to fight this to the bitter end from collapsing

tomorrow and monday are gonna be insane

I got stopped out. Where do you see us heading to next? I know it's premature but I think we will surpass the current high of 2641. I see the next resistance at the .50 fib resistance of 2792