HakeemKnicks wrote:Brooklyn_Yards wrote:fdr2012 wrote:There's no way to move Lin. He's too expensive, particularly after his first season, and the marketing boost is hardly as big as people thought. Houston is stuck with Lin until the end of his contract.
Lins contract for them is 8.3 8.3 8.3 they could find a taker easily.
because of the stretch provision. not many teams have that luxury.
The stretch provision has nothing to do with the 8.3/8.3/8.3. Any team that trades for him will inherit the same contract. The stretch provision is only if a team chooses to waive him and spread out his remaining cap hit over extra years to reduce the burden.
If they trade him this off-season, the new team (even if the Knicks, not that that will ever happen) would inherit Lin's contract and have a cap hit of 8.3M/8.3M for his final two years, but with actual payout of 5M/15M.
Any team that trades for him will inherit the same contract structure as the Rockets that Lin signed for a cap hit of 8.3M/8.3M/8.3M with payout of about 5M/5M/15M. Even the knicks would have inherited the 8.3M/8.3M/8.3M cap hit structure if they had traded for him (not that they would) after he signed with the Rockets (after the usual trade moratorium for newly signed FA's).
The only chance of the contract structure being a cap hit of 5M/5M/15M was if the Knicks matched. Once they declined to match, the contract cap hit was fixed at 8.3M/8.3M/8.3M. Any team that trades for him (even the knicks) will inherit that 8.3M/8.3M/8.3M cap hit structure (along with the actual payout structure of 5M/5M/15M).
The Stretch provision, and whether a team is able to utilize it, is irrelevant. It only comes into play if a team wishes to waive him and spread the remaining cap hit over even more years. Such as if he was a bust after the Knicks matched and they wanted to waive him in order to not be hit by the large final year tax bill by utilizing the stretch provision. (This is why many said their declining to match wasn't entirely because of money, since the stretch provision gave them options to mitigate that if he turned into a bust).
The Stretch provision still remains available to the Rockets or any subsequent team that trades for him if they wish to waive him and spread his cap hit (and thus reducing any attendant luxury tax implications) over more years so that it is even less than 8.3M if he busts.
I think it would be hard to trade him in his final year due to the disparity between his cap hit of 8.3M and his actual payout of 15M. But they could possibly find takers if they wanted to trade him this off-season for a remaining caphit of 8.3M/8.3M and a remaining payout of 5M/15M. Teams will trade for the potential and whatever cachet remains from Linsanity, especially since he's shown flashes to prove last year wasn't a one-hit wonder fluke and that he can at least be serviceable with consistent starter minutes, and he's clearly not at his peak yet. Many young players who enter the league without a consistent shot will develop one over time, since it's the easiest skill to develop when all that is needed is hard work and repetitions to build muscle memory. Once that happens, the game will open up even more for his drives. So I think teams would be willing to trade for Lin this off-season based on growth potential, proven serviceability (even if not Linsanity megawatt at the moment) handling starter minutes, and with the more manageable averaged payout/caphit disparity, but not in his final season when the payout/caphit disparity becomes more insurmountable.
I don't think the Rockets will trade him unless it's for a clear upgrade, considering what happened the last time they let him go and what happened on the Knicks. Especially when he is clearly not at the ceiling of his growth yet. The other guys they let go were all in their prime/peak or either at or near their ceiling for potential like Scola, Dragic, Patterson. Or if they could get a clear upgrade like Lamb for Harden. I don't think Morey will let Lin go until he's sure Lin has peaked or is near his ceiling, unless a clear upgrade superstar offer like the Harden deal comes along. He doesn't want egg on his face twice in a row if Lin becomes Linsanity again. Lin hasn't reached his peak, and what he needs is the easiest skill to develop, a more consistent outside shot, where there is a history of many pgs who have followed that development path from inconsistent/no outside shot to a serviceable outside threat. Once he has a consistent outside shot (I don't think he'll ever be Novak level sharpshooter, but all his needs is decent consistency with a serviceable outside threat), it acts as a force multiplier to open up the lanes for his already formidable driving game (one of the quickest first steps, and I think there was a stat somewhere saying his drives are on par with Toney Parker for creating points per play or something).
To recap: Any team that trades for Lin will inherit same contract terms and caphit/payout as the Rockets. Morey can find takers for Lin this off-season with 2 yrs left on the contract. He won't be able to find takers in only the final year when the caphit/payout difference is so large, but he can easily with 2 yrs left. He won't trade Lin unless it's for a clear superstar upgrade, or until he's sure Lin won't develop an outside shot and become Linsanity on another team.
This means Lin will likely be on the Rockets for the entire contract (Despite takers, Morey won't trade him this off-season due to fear of Linsanity Schadenfreude repeat, unless it's for a superstar upgrade. And lack of takers in final season due to pay/cap-hit disparity). After 3yrs, Lin will either re-sign with Rockets or sign with another team, depending on his development (Rockets won't want him if he's a bust or may only be willing to re-sign him for less), cap-management issues (Rockets may not be able to pay him if they have to spend too much cash on Harden/Parson with a raise/Asik in same contract boat as Jeremy Lin/whoever else is eating up space), and whether he can be lured by another team (he's probably got a soft spot for his hometown Warriors even after everything that's happened).
For better or worse, whether he turns into a superstar or a bust, I see him finishing out his contract in Houston and becoming a UFA in 3 yrs. How much he has developed would determine where he goes from there as he enters his prime and becomes who he becomes. It will certainly be an interesting journey to watch that development and the ups and downs, since it started with Linsanity on the Knicks, a magical time in franchise history. He was one of ours, something that belonged to New Yorkers, a homegrown diamond in the rough that happened here, whose development and discovery we NY'ers can take credit for, and not a mercenary hired from another team. What's that phrase on the inside of those Knicks jerseys?
