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OT: Democratic Primary Thread

Moderators: Deeeez Knicks, mpharris36, j4remi, NoLayupRule, HerSports85, GONYK, Jeff Van Gully, dakomish23

Who are you voting for?

Poll ended at Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:48 pm

Joe Biden - I have no idea why, and I also forgot what year it is
18
28%
Bernie Sanders - I am an intelligent human being, and understand Sanders is our last hope and America needs him
38
58%
Tulsi Gabbard (Dropped Out) - Ringo Starr is also my favorite Beatle
9
14%
 
Total votes: 65

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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1661 » by j4remi » Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:56 pm

Phish Tank wrote:You made good points on 2). Email lists and nonstop targeting is a must.

As for points 5-7:

5) I understand the frustration when it comes to negotiating certain items into a bill. Schumer's a bigger softie than Pelosi on that regard (which is why I mentioned in my previous post how I want more tv hosts and reporters to grill him on being a softie, but are too scared and "protective of their profession" not to do it). However, I had those same issues when it came to impeachment. One thing I'll say is that I talked to my cousin - who works as a legal counsel for a prominent US Senator (and former presidential candidate - I can PM you if you're curious) - that there's a lot more behind the scenes (from grandstanding, et al) that people like myself don't really know (mainly because we're not in DC all the time) which is why things don't always happen the way we want. He made me understand the process a bit more and not to oversimplify things.

6) Yea the Latinx outreach is an interesting quandary in my opinion. To be quite honest, it's a tough area to reconcile because many in the community were not fans of the Obama Administration. I honestly don't know how Biden can win them back, but I understand Bernie because he has the outsider mentality in that regards. But when it comes to Latinx outreach, what campaigns fail to realize is that the Latino population is very different across regions. One approach can't work everywhere.

Agree wholeheartedly with 7)


Definitely interested to hear an inside perspective from someone based in DC. I've heard some cases made for some of the legislative fights going in bad directions but I think there is a layer of convenience or lack of will power involved (watching the NY and NJ political machinery has made that seem like a foregone conclusion locally and I definitely project it federally moreso than have absolute proof of folly).

For 6, I co-sign most of the sentiment except that I think reaching them is easier than you might expect. Trump has been terrible at the Southern border, backed multiple coup attempts (Mexico rumors leaking now too) and his handling of Puerto Rico has some interesting comparables to what's happened with the COVID response (like data manipulation to downplay the pain and response needs). Biden is counting on that being enough, but I think presence is needed. We saw that with the Southern Black vote in the primary and a lot of the "he's been here and talked to the people" logic for Biden support. Building that kind of faith is definitely an uphill battle after Obama sold us out for a majority of his admin but at least there was DACA and an attempt at opening up to Cuba. Those are steps that Biden could try to reaffirm...

The other bit I think is worth mentioning is that there are certain ways we can address specific issues that make a lot of sense. Voters not getting the mail-in ballots they request is an issue where we should probably focus on resources. Provide more resources to hire more people and there won't be so much confusion. It'd also help to not have states where they wait to tally the mail-in votes, just have a rolling count so the results don't take as long and confusion isn't an issue. This sort of stuff is small and not world changing but it does improve efficacy which would in turn improve perception of the steps we could and should be taking as we go forward. So if we drill down to specific types of suppression, we may even be able to pick out some smaller solutions that wouldn't face such dramatic opposition.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1662 » by Phish Tank » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:03 pm

j4remi wrote:
For 6, I co-sign most of the sentiment except that I think reaching them is easier than you might expect. Trump has been terrible at the Southern border, backed multiple coup attempts (Mexico rumors leaking now too) and his handling of Puerto Rico has some interesting comparables to what's happened with the COVID response (like data manipulation to downplay the pain and response needs). Biden is counting on that being enough, but I think presence is needed. We saw that with the Southern Black vote in the primary and a lot of the "he's been here and talked to the people" logic for Biden support. Building that kind of faith is definitely an uphill battle after Obama sold us out for a majority of his admin but at least there was DACA and an attempt at opening up to Cuba. Those are steps that Biden could try to reaffirm...

The other bit I think is worth mentioning is that there are certain ways we can address specific issues that make a lot of sense. Voters not getting the mail-in ballots they request is an issue where we should probably focus on resources. Provide more resources to hire more people and there won't be so much confusion. It'd also help to not have states where they wait to tally the mail-in votes, just have a rolling count so the results don't take as long and confusion isn't an issue. This sort of stuff is small and not world changing but it does improve efficacy which would in turn improve perception of the steps we could and should be taking as we go forward. So if we drill down to specific types of suppression, we may even be able to pick out some smaller solutions that wouldn't face such dramatic opposition.


I mean you prolly know it more than I do, but I hope it's easier to reach to Latino voters now. I think part of it is admitting to making mistakes on immigration policy during the Obama years and then proposing some key solutions. Also, the state democratic parties have to be more proactive too. Florida's a perfect example of what not to do - and how Gillum and others messed it up. It's starts with admission, solutions, listening, communicating, and massive voter registration.

Agree about mail-in ballots. Curious what you mean about "rolling count." Does that mean just tallying up the votes and then releasing them the moment the polls close, right?
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1663 » by Pointgod » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:26 pm

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
j4remi wrote:
My entire point here is that they should be trying harder. I'm glad they made voting reform the first bill they put up as a new Congress, but I'm frustrated that they did a piss poor job promoting it. These current circumstances have presented another opportunity to center the issue and take up the fight; but there's no will power to actually make it a fight. So it's "we tried..but Republicans" even as we watch more voters disenfranchised be it incompetence or bad faith.

Yesterday wasn't the first time these circumstances existed, but we walked right into it again. You want voters to come out in huge numbers to vote out the Republicans? Make it easier for them to vote. And every time the Republicans play foul on this issue and it gets met with a shrug; they have every reason to try and get away with it again. Strategically speaking, I think the ball was dropped not forcing mandatory mail-in voting into the COVID spending bill discussion. But I have a lot of issues with the COVID spending negotiations I'll admit.

So to get back on my main point...If we resign ourselves to Republicans in power being able to suppress votes; then we're not doing enough to disincentivize voter suppression. If they can get away with it to win an election, they will do it. We know that. We saw that. Stacey Abrams lost to that. Asking voters to address voter suppression feels like it's missing the key component; enabling voters to address it. And if we can't enable the voters to do so because of Republican obstruction, then the least we can do is give them absolute hell for effectively stripping away a right that people still alive to day have to fight to be granted.


Well I think you’re misunderstanding a fundamental problem Republicans. Democrats in Congress have passed 100’s of bills that are literally sitting in the Senate and collecting dust because of Mitch McConnell. Republicans are a fundamentally broken party that has no interest in governing and you can see it at the Federal level and at the state level in some examples. There’s really not much else the Democrats can do because Republicans literally don’t give a ****. So again it all comes back to getting Republicans the **** out of office at all levels.

And that means showing up to vote for Democrats even if it’s not your preferred candidate. It also means showing up to vote because you care about your country not because a candidate excites you. Voter suppression works because it trims at the margins and the only way to counteract that and gerrymandering is to show up in huge numbers over a sustained period of time. It’s probably going to take at least a decade to undo all the damage Trump has done. There’s really no other alternative then to wrestle power away from Republicans and keep them out of power for a long long time.


Don’t forget all of the gerrymandering we also have to overcome. If we can take all three branches in November, then maybe we can steamroll them. It will require us to make bold moves though, e.g. packing the Supreme Court and the D.C. Circuit Court.


It’s a census year too so Democrats need to gain power if gerrymandering is to ever end. Democrat is literally riding on this.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1664 » by j4remi » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:42 pm

Phish Tank wrote:I mean you prolly know it more than I do, but I hope it's easier to reach to Latino voters now. I think part of it is admitting to making mistakes on immigration policy during the Obama years and then proposing some key solutions. Also, the state democratic parties have to be more proactive too. Florida's a perfect example of what not to do - and how Gillum and others messed it up. It's starts with admission, solutions, listening, communicating, and massive voter registration.

Agree about mail-in ballots. Curious what you mean about "rolling count." Does that mean just tallying up the votes and then releasing them the moment the polls close, right?


Absolutely on local outreach efforts, especially in FL. I think some of it is self-fulfilling prophesying. Latin voters are less likely to vote in the data, so they don't do the outreach, so the Latin voters continue not to vote...and the cycle continues. It definitely would help to admit the mistakes of past instead of rationalizing them (we saw this dichotomy during early debates, between Castro and Biden). Pointing to real solutions to the problems helps a lot. Biden's got some in there, just DACA support alone is a leg up and a smart path to citizenship approach has become a big part of the Democratic party's discussion so I'm interested where that sits in the platform too.

And yeah, you essentially nailed what I mean by rolling count. Instead of storing mail in ballots to count after the polls close, begin the tallying as they arrive. I think it made sense not to when absentee ballots were a smaller portion of the vote but we can see the limitations as more people mail in their ballots. We won't know the results of some races with certainty for days in some cases and I just think that's an easy place for bad faith attempts at high jacking the conversation and confusing people (say Trump edges out the in person voting but mail-in ballots overwhelmingly put Biden ahead...imagine if Trump has days to claim he was the winner and continue pushing his "mail in votes are fraudulent" lines before his loss is official).
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1665 » by Phish Tank » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:57 pm

j4remi wrote:
And yeah, you essentially nailed what I mean by rolling count. Instead of storing mail in ballots to count after the polls close, begin the tallying as they arrive. I think it made sense not to when absentee ballots were a smaller portion of the vote but we can see the limitations as more people mail in their ballots. We won't know the results of some races with certainty for days in some cases and I just think that's an easy place for bad faith attempts at high jacking the conversation and confusing people (say Trump edges out the in person voting but mail-in ballots overwhelmingly put Biden ahead...imagine if Trump has days to claim he was the winner and continue pushing his "mail in votes are fraudulent" lines before his loss is official).


Agreed on that. Which - btw - we'll start seeing come thru in KY as I'm now sure Booker will definitely win after the tally of all the mail-in ballots. I'd like to know the final tally though because McConnell got a lot of votes in-person but I want to see how far behind the cumulative total is for the Dems so that we know how much more work is needed to get people to vote in November.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1666 » by j4remi » Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:35 pm

Phish Tank wrote:Agreed on that. Which - btw - we'll start seeing come thru in KY as I'm now sure Booker will definitely win after the tally of all the mail-in ballots. I'd like to know the final tally though because McConnell got a lot of votes in-person but I want to see how far behind the cumulative total is for the Dems so that we know how much more work is needed to get people to vote in November.


Yeah, I'm really interested in the vote totals too and to see what happens to the gaps in some of these races. I kinda gave up on Booker/McGrath at the margins I saw and figured he wouldn't be able to make up the gap (was I being defeatist prematurely on that?). With that race and also AOC and Bowman's; my big curiosity is to see what the mail in votes do to the gaps and whether or not they're significantly different from the in-person results. I should probably look at more races too, but since these are the ones I care about so they're the easiest to keep track of :lol:
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1667 » by Phish Tank » Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:43 pm

j4remi wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:Agreed on that. Which - btw - we'll start seeing come thru in KY as I'm now sure Booker will definitely win after the tally of all the mail-in ballots. I'd like to know the final tally though because McConnell got a lot of votes in-person but I want to see how far behind the cumulative total is for the Dems so that we know how much more work is needed to get people to vote in November.


Yeah, I'm really interested in the vote totals too and to see what happens to the gaps in some of these races. I kinda gave up on Booker/McGrath at the margins I saw and figured he wouldn't be able to make up the gap (was I being defeatist prematurely on that?). With that race and also AOC and Bowman's; my big curiosity is to see what the mail in votes do to the gaps and whether or not they're significantly different from the in-person results. I should probably look at more races too, but since these are the ones I care about so they're the easiest to keep track of :lol:


Follow Cameron Webb between now and November. He won the primary in VA05 and he has a good chance of winning back that seat. He'd be the first black doctor (at 36 years old too) in Congress.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1668 » by Stannis » Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:53 pm

Booker has a chance?

79% votes in. 32000 votes for him vs McGrath's 30000

I'm still very skeptical one of them can beat Mitch. He got a lot of votes considering he was basically running unopposed.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1669 » by Stannis » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:43 pm

I still think Biden has got the momentum way too early. I don't think he can keep it going.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1670 » by GONYK » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:10 pm

Stannis wrote:I still think Biden has got the momentum way too early. I don't think he can keep it going.


Perhaps, but I don't think any of this is fueled by Biden. It's all how much people hate Trump.

Do you think Trump will become significantly more competent or less hated by November?
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1671 » by Stannis » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:30 pm

GONYK wrote:
Do you think Trump will become significantly more competent or less hated by November?


For me personally, no.

But I think the protests and Covid will start dying down, which will help Trump. And when it does, people will eventually want to start hearing what Biden has to say.

Ideally, you want to get all the momentum right before people can start voting in the generals. Right now, I'm just thinking how much longer can this keep doing? I just think it can only slow down from here.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1672 » by j4remi » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:47 pm

GONYK wrote:
Stannis wrote:I still think Biden has got the momentum way too early. I don't think he can keep it going.


Perhaps, but I don't think any of this is fueled by Biden. It's all how much people hate Trump.

Do you think Trump will become significantly more competent or less hated by November?


I feel like these gaps always get tighter as the race gets closer, so I won’t take it for granted (especially bc I legitimately expect funny business or at least attempts at it). But I agree with you, this polling reminds me of the recent blue wave and most elections I’ve seen have reinforced the idea for me that this election will be a referendum on trump moreso than anything else.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1673 » by HarthorneWingo » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:04 pm

Stannis wrote:Booker has a chance?

79% votes in. 32000 votes for him vs McGrath's 30000

I'm still very skeptical one of them can beat Mitch. He got a lot of votes considering he was basically running unopposed.


Booker just jumped ahead of McGrath. Still a lot of mail in ballots to be counted. I believe June 30 is the last day to count them.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1674 » by HarthorneWingo » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:14 pm

GONYK wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:hopefully outside the Twitter sphere, most people take the polls as simply part of horse race coverage and not a reason to sit out an election. I'm guessing 2016 was it for most people who even went with that approach... if anyone truly votes based on polling, then idk what to tell them.


All things being equal (a big "IF" in American politics today), people vote based on the enthusiasm they have for their candidate. I don't know where that enthusiasm will come from with Biden. Young Democrats certainly are not at all. Yes, they hate Trump but they see themselves in a hopeless position no matter who wins. It appears that it will have to emerge out of the collective hatred and intolerance of one more day of Trump.

Democrats don't vote, generally, as much as Republicans. If we have another wave of COVID in the fall, it could really throw a wrench into the election. They're already compromised based on what's transpired in the past few elections anyhow.

EDIT:

This is pretty wild and basically backs up my view that this election right now is solely a referendum on Trump because of Biden's very low favorability and very low unfavorability polling numbers. The only one that stands out is the high unfavorable numbers Trump gets.

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Read on Twitter


Sam and Mike do a nice job going through all the different polling breakdowns including the above. I think it's a good listen. They begin discussing at around 1:38:00.



Seems like you just figured it out


How did that same scenario work in '04? Kerry v. Dubya? Not very well as I recall.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1675 » by GONYK » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:29 pm

HarthorneWingo wrote:
GONYK wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
All things being equal (a big "IF" in American politics today), people vote based on the enthusiasm they have for their candidate. I don't know where that enthusiasm will come from with Biden. Young Democrats certainly are not at all. Yes, they hate Trump but they see themselves in a hopeless position no matter who wins. It appears that it will have to emerge out of the collective hatred and intolerance of one more day of Trump.

Democrats don't vote, generally, as much as Republicans. If we have another wave of COVID in the fall, it could really throw a wrench into the election. They're already compromised based on what's transpired in the past few elections anyhow.

EDIT:

This is pretty wild and basically backs up my view that this election right now is solely a referendum on Trump because of Biden's very low favorability and very low unfavorability polling numbers. The only one that stands out is the high unfavorable numbers Trump gets.

Image

Read on Twitter


Sam and Mike do a nice job going through all the different polling breakdowns including the above. I think it's a good listen. They begin discussing at around 1:38:00.



Seems like you just figured it out


How did that same scenario work in '04? Kerry v. Dubya? Not very well as I recall.

Bush and Trump aren't remotely comparable as candidates, and the country is significantly more polarized than it was 16 years ago.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1676 » by HarthorneWingo » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:37 pm

GONYK wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
GONYK wrote:
Seems like you just figured it out


How did that same scenario work in '04? Kerry v. Dubya? Not very well as I recall.

Bush and Trump aren't remotely comparable as candidates, and the country is significantly more polarized than it was 16 years ago.


Making up evidence to involve us in the Iraq War that has turned out to be the quagmire that everyone said at the time?

Outing Valerie Pflame, a CIA operative?

You must've forgotten how outraged the country was back then, pal. Is Trump worse compared to Bush? Yes. But back then, at the time, we were all this outraged.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1677 » by GONYK » Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:16 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:
GONYK wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
How did that same scenario work in '04? Kerry v. Dubya? Not very well as I recall.

Bush and Trump aren't remotely comparable as candidates, and the country is significantly more polarized than it was 16 years ago.


Making up evidence to involve us in the Iraq War that has turned out to be the quagmire that everyone said at the time?

Outing Valerie Pflame, a CIA operative?

You must've forgotten how outraged the country was back then, pal. Is Trump worse compared to Bush? Yes. But back then, at the time, we were all this outraged.


I didn't forget. The country is just more outraged now.

Being an overt p*ssy grabbing white supremacist who let 123k people die on your watch (the equivalent of 40 9/11's) will do that.

And, like I said, the country is more polarized now. Trump himself has fanned those divisions.

Almost nothing that was a factor 16 years ago will hold any real comparison to today.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1678 » by HarthorneWingo » Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:22 am

GONYK wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
GONYK wrote:Bush and Trump aren't remotely comparable as candidates, and the country is significantly more polarized than it was 16 years ago.


Making up evidence to involve us in the Iraq War that has turned out to be the quagmire that everyone said at the time?

Outing Valerie Pflame, a CIA operative?

You must've forgotten how outraged the country was back then, pal. Is Trump worse compared to Bush? Yes. But back then, at the time, we were all this outraged.


I didn't forget. The country is just more outraged now.

Being an overt p*ssy grabbing white supremacist who let 123k people die on your watch (the equivalent of 40 9/11's) will do that.

And, like I said, the country is more polarized now. Trump himself has fanned those divisions.

Almost nothing that was a factor 16 years ago will hold any real comparison to today.


Of course, it's all relative. But at the time, Bush had pushed the envelope more than we've every imagined before just like Trump has today. Sure, in retrospect by comparison Trump is much worse. It's still not a sound strategy for running a campaign and winning a presidential election. You have to agree with that, right?
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1679 » by GONYK » Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:53 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:
GONYK wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
Making up evidence to involve us in the Iraq War that has turned out to be the quagmire that everyone said at the time?

Outing Valerie Pflame, a CIA operative?

You must've forgotten how outraged the country was back then, pal. Is Trump worse compared to Bush? Yes. But back then, at the time, we were all this outraged.


I didn't forget. The country is just more outraged now.

Being an overt p*ssy grabbing white supremacist who let 123k people die on your watch (the equivalent of 40 9/11's) will do that.

And, like I said, the country is more polarized now. Trump himself has fanned those divisions.

Almost nothing that was a factor 16 years ago will hold any real comparison to today.


Of course, it's all relative. But at the time, Bush had pushed the envelope more than we've every imagined before just like Trump has today. Sure, in retrospect by comparison Trump is much worse. It's still not a sound strategy for running a campaign and winning a presidential election. You have to agree with that, right?


Well, Biden's lead is almost triple the largest lead Kerry had at any point in 2004, so I think the strategy is fine. We don't need Joe Biden to be anything other than seeming like a decent person. That's it. That's all most people really want this time around.

I think people forget 2 things:

1. Hillary was wildy unpopular and possibly as polarizing to R's and Trump is to D's.
2. Trump lost the popular vote by 3M and is President today because of 80,000 votes across 3 states.

Trump is not some juggernaut. Quite a few anomalies had to line up for him to win by the slimmest of margins. Now, the cards are very much stacked against him.

He's someone that any generic Dem should beat, and Joe Biden is as generic as a Democrat can get.

That's not to say I'm relaxed or confident. Obviously a lot can happen between now and November.

I'm just calling it as I see it. I think a literal empty suit would have a polling lead on Trump right now. The candidate doesn't matter. Trump is the only thing driving people right now.

I'll ask you the same question I asked to Stannis: Do you think Trump will become significantly more competent or less hated between now and November?

I don't think Joe Biden keeping a low profile or fumbling his words will affect anyone's answer.
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Re: OT: Democratic Primary Thread 

Post#1680 » by HarthorneWingo » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:21 am

So Lawrence O'Donnell just made the argument that Joe Biden has a big advantage over Trump because he wears a mask and Trump doesn't.

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