OT: Clinton or Bush?

[Jalen Bluntson]

don't shoot the messenger, like i said the numbers are what they are. obviously doesn't mean everything but it means something and the trend is pretty obvious.

I can't speak to mid terms but don't believe it's comparable to betting odds on a presidency.

i'm of the belief trump voters already know who/what he is - so him speaking more/less doesn't change anything to them. I think if you're losing in the polls etc then you are willing to take more risks because you have "nothing to lose". if you're winning then there's no reason to take as much risk. hence why i think kamala did the fox news interview. she spent weeks doing rallies but not answering any actual questions - and it was working. now lately it seems she is more willing to take risks - which could be related to the trend showing trump's odds have improved meaningfully.

i already said it but if anything i prefer she wins because my boss is an insufferable trump hater that i would have to listen to non stop if he wins. outside of that i don't really care. i'm in no way a trump supporter.

Wow. For someone who doesn't follow politics you have all of the FAUX News talking points down pat.

Here is how gambling works. They tell you Trump is gonna win. Everyone bets on Trump. He loses...THEY win. Trump is in a dead heat according to everyone except Trump and his campaign HQ at FAUX News and the like.

It's not rocket science.

"Here is how gambling works." Okay, I'll bite. Since you know, now gimme the rest of this weeks' NFL 14 game parlay!

I am kind of being disingenuous with that one but, hey! It's a suckers bet. That's my take on it. I actually follow this stuff and nowhere else is this being reported that Trump has a substantial lead except a gambling site and some junk polls.You think they want to pay out when everyone bets for the favorite? If he was really that far ahead can someone explain how or why? I would be willing to hear a sound FACT based case as to why.

He hasn't done anything to expand his base since he lost the last time. It is actually shrinking. Kamala has been igniting the Dem base which usually favors them when the turnout is high. She has swung his fellow Republicans. People that worked closely with him. The energy is there. The polls all have it as a tight race. People are tired of this shyt.

It makes zero sense that he is heavily favored at all. This isn't 2016. People know all there is to know about him now. January 6th has turned a lot of people off.

Obviously I could be wrong but, until someone can give me a sound reason as to why, I'm keeping my faith that she will win. She is gonna eat his pets!

[Jalen Bluntson]

that's not how betting lines work at all lol. i'm simply sharing information and giving my 2 cents that each candidates actions recently reflect there could be some truth behind the odds and polls shifting - nobody really knows at the end of the day. and like i said my opinion is the narrative that trump is pulling ahead is a good thing for kamala if anything. if the narrative was kamala was "strengthening her lead" then a lot of people that would only vote to ensure trump doesn't win might feel they don't have to.

my general opinion on politics is they are all crooks. 3 straight presidential elections with embarrassingly bad candidates.

DO BETTER AMERICA

The house always wins. That's EXACTLY how gambling works.

Anyway. If you don't follow politics. Then maybe stick to that. You are in here trying to convince people that polls are accurate. They aren't. Nowhere in the world is this being reported as Trump heavily favored except this stupid gambling site. It's not hard to figure out.

I don't follow polls. I am just going by what past Trump voting people I know are saying to me and what over 100 Republicans past and present are saying. They all are either NOT voting or voting for Kamala. 40 of the 44 people in Trump's administration do not support him. Many of those politicians are endorsing Kamala.

On top of that...for what it's worth to others...the polls have it as a tight race.

Are you voting?

exactly, the house always wins which is why they set the lines accordingly. kamala was a slight favorite a few weeks ago but that has shifted.

i'm not in here trying to convince anyone of anything. show me where i said the polls are accurate? you dismiss data and then use anecdotes about people you know lol

i clicked into here more than once and was confused when politics were being discussed. "OT: What are you grateful for?" is what i thought i was entering

They don't want you to win bets. Gambling lines on politics are also UNPRECEDENTED. If you can explain how they tabulate their odds I would also incorporate that into my opinion.

I don't dismiss data. I don't trust polls and they have been wildly inaccurate the last four years but, I incorporate EVERYTHING that I actually have been paying attention to with what I experience in real life to come to my conclusions. That's a logical approach.

You keep pushing that she is losing based on that site. Convince may be the wrong word but, YOU seemed convinced without paying attention to anything else except that and your boss. While using some FAUX News talking points in there. Makes no sense.

Who are you voting for?

[spree8]

[NYKinMIA]

I'm grateful for sunny days and natural titties.

moon lit walks and unaltered asses.

[moocow007]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/SIlxcmxa_tg?si=opvKpm49uUJCCAtz[/youtube]

[kNicksGmen]

The house always wins. That's EXACTLY how gambling works.

Anyway. If you don't follow politics. Then maybe stick to that. You are in here trying to convince people that polls are accurate. They aren't. Nowhere in the world is this being reported as Trump heavily favored except this stupid gambling site. It's not hard to figure out.

I don't follow polls. I am just going by what past Trump voting people I know are saying to me and what over 100 Republicans past and present are saying. They all are either NOT voting or voting for Kamala. 40 of the 44 people in Trump's administration do not support him. Many of those politicians are endorsing Kamala.

On top of that...for what it's worth to others...the polls have it as a tight race.

Are you voting?

exactly, the house always wins which is why they set the lines accordingly. kamala was a slight favorite a few weeks ago but that has shifted.

i'm not in here trying to convince anyone of anything. show me where i said the polls are accurate? you dismiss data and then use anecdotes about people you know lol

i clicked into here more than once and was confused when politics were being discussed. "OT: What are you grateful for?" is what i thought i was entering

They don't want you to win bets. Gambling lines on politics are also UNPRECEDENTED. If you can explain how they tabulate their odds I would also incorporate that into my opinion.

I don't dismiss data. I don't trust polls and they have been wildly inaccurate the last four years but, I incorporate EVERYTHING that I actually have been paying attention to with what I experience in real life to come to my conclusions. That's a logical approach.

You keep pushing that she is losing based on that site. Convince may be the wrong word but, YOU seemed convinced without paying attention to anything else except that and your boss. While using some FAUX News talking points in there. Makes no sense.

Who are you voting for?

i don't know for certain but typically betting lines are based on money flows. it's not that the house doesn't want you to win bets but they want to be covered regardless of the outcome. the site i shared uses a compilation of many different betting sites so it's not just one. i'm not pushing anything, just sharing info. I'm certainly not pushing that she is going to lose but that it appears something has shifted in trumps favor the past few weeks - which is solely based on the betting odds (which i think are somewhat based on polls impacting bets). and my opinion was their actions recently somewhat reflect that (again just an opinion).

I asked this before but i don't think you responded, what fox news talking point did I use?

I am not voting, I have never voted and possibly never will. Living in NY it makes no difference anyway (at least on a presidential level). I was considering voting for the 1st time if Bernie was the nominee in either of the past 2 races.

[Lord Commander]

I'm grateful for sunny days and natural titties.

moon lit walks and unaltered asses.

[Chanel Bomber]

Noodles and sale season on SSENSE

[Jalen Bluntson]

exactly, the house always wins which is why they set the lines accordingly. kamala was a slight favorite a few weeks ago but that has shifted.

i'm not in here trying to convince anyone of anything. show me where i said the polls are accurate? you dismiss data and then use anecdotes about people you know lol

i clicked into here more than once and was confused when politics were being discussed. "OT: What are you grateful for?" is what i thought i was entering

They don't want you to win bets. Gambling lines on politics are also UNPRECEDENTED. If you can explain how they tabulate their odds I would also incorporate that into my opinion.

I don't dismiss data. I don't trust polls and they have been wildly inaccurate the last four years but, I incorporate EVERYTHING that I actually have been paying attention to with what I experience in real life to come to my conclusions. That's a logical approach.

You keep pushing that she is losing based on that site. Convince may be the wrong word but, YOU seemed convinced without paying attention to anything else except that and your boss. While using some FAUX News talking points in there. Makes no sense.

Who are you voting for?

i don't know for certain but typically betting lines are based on money flows. it's not that the house doesn't want you to win bets but they want to be covered regardless of the outcome. the site i shared uses a compilation of many different betting sites so it's not just one. i'm not pushing anything, just sharing info. I'm certainly not pushing that she is going to lose but that it appears something has shifted in trumps favor the past few weeks - which is solely based on the betting odds (which i think are somewhat based on polls impacting bets). and my opinion was their actions recently somewhat reflect that (again just an opinion).

I asked this before but i don't think you responded, what fox news talking point did I use?

I am not voting, I have never voted and possibly never will. Living in NY it makes no difference anyway (at least on a presidential level). I was considering voting for the 1st time if Bernie was the nominee in either of the past 2 races.

I think if you're losing in the polls etc then you are willing to take more risks because you have "nothing to lose". if you're winning then there's no reason to take as much risk.

she spent weeks doing rallies but not answering any actual questions.

These were along the lines of what FAUX says and Trump said after he lost the debate. That he won't do another debate because he already won. It was very similar. They complained about her not talking when she first started her campaign and then changed to she can't answer questions once she started doing interviews.

When you presented the poll over and over and said don't shoot the messenger... seemed like you were pushing that poll as evidence she is factually losing. That's where I was coming from.

I do pay attention to some polls and somewhat use them in my overall reasoning but, there's no way of knowing who is leading or losing. There have been inexplicable swings in some polls and others have remained steady. Some you can just tell are junk polls.

I just feel that a lot of people that supported Trump in 2016 regret it and have moved away. I know several personally who flat out hate him for his insults to the military and January 6th. They did not vote for him last time will not vote for him again or will vote for Kamala. You see it in real time with members of his party and his own administration. Including his VP.

He has not only doubled down and tripled down on his election lunacy but, he has gotten worse with other wild shyt like eating pets and many other wild things. Then there's Vance who looks like a complete tool and a liar. Then there's abortion which will cost him dearly. His lies are really all he does now and he is getting sloppy with it. He just looks like he knows that people know he's lying but it's a sickness and he just can't stop. Plus the cognitive decline/exhaustion.

To me there are more things that signal he will not only lose the popular vote for a third time but, the electoral vote is not as solid as people think either. That's why he keeps positioning for the stolen election angle that also failed last time. He thinks he's got a better chance at that.

Anyway. That's all.

[kNicksGmen]

They don't want you to win bets. Gambling lines on politics are also UNPRECEDENTED. If you can explain how they tabulate their odds I would also incorporate that into my opinion.

I don't dismiss data. I don't trust polls and they have been wildly inaccurate the last four years but, I incorporate EVERYTHING that I actually have been paying attention to with what I experience in real life to come to my conclusions. That's a logical approach.

You keep pushing that she is losing based on that site. Convince may be the wrong word but, YOU seemed convinced without paying attention to anything else except that and your boss. While using some FAUX News talking points in there. Makes no sense.

Who are you voting for?

i don't know for certain but typically betting lines are based on money flows. it's not that the house doesn't want you to win bets but they want to be covered regardless of the outcome. the site i shared uses a compilation of many different betting sites so it's not just one. i'm not pushing anything, just sharing info. I'm certainly not pushing that she is going to lose but that it appears something has shifted in trumps favor the past few weeks - which is solely based on the betting odds (which i think are somewhat based on polls impacting bets). and my opinion was their actions recently somewhat reflect that (again just an opinion).

I asked this before but i don't think you responded, what fox news talking point did I use?

I am not voting, I have never voted and possibly never will. Living in NY it makes no difference anyway (at least on a presidential level). I was considering voting for the 1st time if Bernie was the nominee in either of the past 2 races.

I think if you're losing in the polls etc then you are willing to take more risks because you have "nothing to lose". if you're winning then there's no reason to take as much risk.

she spent weeks doing rallies but not answering any actual questions.

These were along the lines of what FAUX says and Trump said after he lost the debate. That he won't do another debate because he already won. It was very similar. They complained about her not talking when she first started her campaign and then changed to she can't answer questions once she started doing interviews.

When you presented the poll over and over and said don't shoot the messenger... seemed like you were pushing that poll as evidence she is factually losing. That's where I was coming from.

I do pay attention to some polls and somewhat use them in my overall reasoning but, there's no way of knowing who is leading or losing. There have been inexplicable swings in some polls and others have remained steady. Some you can just tell are junk polls.

I just feel that a lot of people that supported Trump in 2016 regret it and have moved away. I know several personally who flat out hate him for his insults to the military and January 6th. They did not vote for him last time will not vote for him again or will vote for Kamala. You see it in real time with members of his party and his own administration. Including his VP.

He has not only doubled down and tripled down on his election lunacy but, he has gotten worse with other wild shyt like eating pets and many other wild things. Then there's Vance who looks like a complete tool and a liar. Then there's abortion which will cost him dearly. His lies are really all he does now and he is getting sloppy with it. He just looks like he knows that people know he's lying but it's a sickness and he just can't stop. Plus the cognitive decline/exhaustion.

To me there are more things that signal he will not only lose the popular vote for a third time but, the electoral vote is not as solid as people think either. That's why he keeps positioning for the stolen election angle that also failed last time. He thinks he's got a better chance at that.

Anyway. That's all.

fair enough. i don't watch fox news so can't speak to what their talking points are. those were just my observations / my opinion. i never shared a poll either it was just an article about the better odds and a graph of them, the odds could certainly be wrong or change in the coming weeks - who knows.

[Jalen Bluntson]

I just don't understand why Kamala hasn't stood on the positive things that happened while she was with Biden. Why they haven't pushed the pandemic as a huge cause for the inflation people are feeling and what they did to combat it. That it was global and we seem to have recovered better than a lot of the world. How gas prices have come back down. The markets rallied. Positive GDP growth. Interest rates dropping. Etc.

There are positives she can point to that will hold up against Trump's wildly inaccurate and flat out lies about the state of the economy. You can lead a horse to water but, it seems they aren't trying hard enough to push that. Like they tell them where the watering hole is but don't help them get there.

The messaging was strong at first but, it hasn't really changed enough to reach the voters they need. She stumbles at times with things like I wouldn't change a thing but, we need change. It's getting foggy while they just let Trump dig his own hole. They had him on the ropes and they let up too much for my liking. If she loses I will damn sure point to this as the cause.

[Jalen Bluntson]

i don't know for certain but typically betting lines are based on money flows. it's not that the house doesn't want you to win bets but they want to be covered regardless of the outcome. the site i shared uses a compilation of many different betting sites so it's not just one. i'm not pushing anything, just sharing info. I'm certainly not pushing that she is going to lose but that it appears something has shifted in trumps favor the past few weeks - which is solely based on the betting odds (which i think are somewhat based on polls impacting bets). and my opinion was their actions recently somewhat reflect that (again just an opinion).

I asked this before but i don't think you responded, what fox news talking point did I use?

I am not voting, I have never voted and possibly never will. Living in NY it makes no difference anyway (at least on a presidential level). I was considering voting for the 1st time if Bernie was the nominee in either of the past 2 races.

I think if you're losing in the polls etc then you are willing to take more risks because you have "nothing to lose". if you're winning then there's no reason to take as much risk.

she spent weeks doing rallies but not answering any actual questions.

These were along the lines of what FAUX says and Trump said after he lost the debate. That he won't do another debate because he already won. It was very similar. They complained about her not talking when she first started her campaign and then changed to she can't answer questions once she started doing interviews.

When you presented the poll over and over and said don't shoot the messenger... seemed like you were pushing that poll as evidence she is factually losing. That's where I was coming from.

I do pay attention to some polls and somewhat use them in my overall reasoning but, there's no way of knowing who is leading or losing. There have been inexplicable swings in some polls and others have remained steady. Some you can just tell are junk polls.

I just feel that a lot of people that supported Trump in 2016 regret it and have moved away. I know several personally who flat out hate him for his insults to the military and January 6th. They did not vote for him last time will not vote for him again or will vote for Kamala. You see it in real time with members of his party and his own administration. Including his VP.

He has not only doubled down and tripled down on his election lunacy but, he has gotten worse with other wild shyt like eating pets and many other wild things. Then there's Vance who looks like a complete tool and a liar. Then there's abortion which will cost him dearly. His lies are really all he does now and he is getting sloppy with it. He just looks like he knows that people know he's lying but it's a sickness and he just can't stop. Plus the cognitive decline/exhaustion.

To me there are more things that signal he will not only lose the popular vote for a third time but, the electoral vote is not as solid as people think either. That's why he keeps positioning for the stolen election angle that also failed last time. He thinks he's got a better chance at that.

Anyway. That's all.

fair enough. i don't watch fox news so can't speak to what their talking points are. those were just my observations / my opinion. i never shared a poll either it was just an article about the better odds and a graph of them, the odds could certainly be wrong or change in the coming weeks - who knows.

Yeah.. the odds are like a poll but, that's what I am referring to. I have been up for twenty six hours dealing with somethings and I know I am starting to fade.

Cool discussion though. Get out and vote. It matters. No matter where you are. If you want Trump to lose. Vote him out.

[MrDollarBills]

The polls have swung but also the betting markets, which is what i was referring to. They have it around 60/40 in favor of trump now. A few weeks ago it was in favor of Harris slightly.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/17/trumps-polymarket-odds-top-60-how-election-betting-markets-differ-from-polls/
I mean the numbers are what they are. You think Harris does that interview with Fox if she was still favored? Trump has been cancelling interviews because he's pulled ahead the past few weeks.


there's still time for that to change but the trend has been in favor of trump the past few weeks. My boss definitely consumes a lot of politic media but it's all dem favored for sure. if the dems are putting out that fear mongering, could be a good strategy to get a better turnout. if people think harris is going to win i assume less trump haters would vote.

Trump stopped doing interviews because he's deteriorating at a rapid pace and his handlers are trying to hide it.

Watch on YouTube

^if Joe Biden did this, the same people in this thread who worship Trump would be going off about how dude is going senile.

I actually have a question for the folks who use betting odds as an indicator of how the election will go. What were those odds looking like back in 2022 when there was supposed to be a "Red Wave" during the midterms? Because that didn't happen either.

The Republicans have been losing more than winning nationally and yet all i keep seeing is the same rhetoric every cycle since 2018.

don't shoot the messenger, like i said the numbers are what they are. obviously doesn't mean everything but it means something and the trend is pretty obvious.

I can't speak to mid terms but don't believe it's comparable to betting odds on a presidency.

i'm of the belief trump voters already know who/what he is - so him speaking more/less doesn't change anything to them. I think if you're losing in the polls etc then you are willing to take more risks because you have "nothing to lose". if you're winning then there's no reason to take as much risk. hence why i think kamala did the fox news interview. she spent weeks doing rallies but not answering any actual questions - and it was working. now lately it seems she is more willing to take risks - which could be related to the trend showing trump's odds have improved meaningfully.

i already said it but if anything i prefer she wins because my boss is an insufferable trump hater that i would have to listen to non stop if he wins. outside of that i don't really care. i'm in no way a trump supporter.

i also think a media narrative of it being very close or trump leading is good for kamala anyways. if it was looking like a few weeks ago, that she was going to win then I think less people turn out to vote.

If I challenge a point made by anyone on here, I'm not shooting at you it's all love at the end of the day.

I was just curious about the correlation between political odds/betting and what actually happens on the ground. I feel like polls are becoming more and more unreliable, and I am highly skeptical about odds and betting even remotely getting this right either. I'd rather see what actual people whose professions are to analyze trends and voter data have to offer in terms of projections.

[MrDollarBills]

don't shoot the messenger, like i said the numbers are what they are. obviously doesn't mean everything but it means something and the trend is pretty obvious.

I can't speak to mid terms but don't believe it's comparable to betting odds on a presidency.

i'm of the belief trump voters already know who/what he is - so him speaking more/less doesn't change anything to them. I think if you're losing in the polls etc then you are willing to take more risks because you have "nothing to lose". if you're winning then there's no reason to take as much risk. hence why i think kamala did the fox news interview. she spent weeks doing rallies but not answering any actual questions - and it was working. now lately it seems she is more willing to take risks - which could be related to the trend showing trump's odds have improved meaningfully.

i already said it but if anything i prefer she wins because my boss is an insufferable trump hater that i would have to listen to non stop if he wins. outside of that i don't really care. i'm in no way a trump supporter.

Wow. For someone who doesn't follow politics you have all of the FAUX News talking points down pat.

Here is how gambling works. They tell you Trump is gonna win. Everyone bets on Trump. He loses...THEY win. Trump is in a dead heat according to everyone except Trump and his campaign HQ at FAUX News and the like.

It's not rocket science.

"Here is how gambling works." Okay, I'll bite. Since you know, now gimme the rest of this weeks' NFL 14 game parlay!

Fade the Giants and Jets and you'll never go wrong

[MrDollarBills]

Jill Stein Hurts Donald Trump More Than Kamala Harris, Poll Suggests

https://www.newsweek.com/jill-stein-hurts-donald-trump-more-kamala-harris-poll-suggests-1970765

I wonder if the fact that she's Putin stooge has anything to do with it

[Jalen Bluntson]

Ugh. I just finished my news channel search for what each of the channels push in their cycle. Painful stuff. Just came across Plouffe discussion about their campaign strategy. They are missing the points I mention above and seem like they don't get it at all. I am no expert but, I think the are ignoring things they shouldn't and over stating things we already know. I think they are missing the point at this stage in the race. I'm too exhausted to dive into it but, I am disappointed in what he was saying.

Hope is all I have had this entire time. They played catch up in the beginning and did great job. Now they need to turn it up a notch and they sound like they are just gonna continue the same path. That is why the race is close IMO. What do I know though. I look forward to the next four years where i never turn the news on again no matter who wins.

[RHODEY]

Siding with literal neo-Nazis and happily regurgitating their talking points is not, has never been, and will never be “cool”

I interact with him in basketball discussion and he's always been cool in there. I am willing to interact with the same people in here so, self restraint should be applied because otherwise we won't have this thread.

Just like family parties when politics come up. Are we really gonna be hostile or just keep it moving?

You all know I am trying to be more civil these days. Life is too short. I am facing lung throat and stomach cancer and my wife died from liver cancer three years ago. So maybe it's just me but, I am trying not to be the lunatic I used to be on here. So the voice of reason is a new leaf. Let's all smoke it!

Hail Blunston!!!

[MrDollarBills]

I'm grateful for sunny days and natural titties.

moon lit walks and unaltered asses.

Amen. I don't care if they're As or Ds just give em to me

[Jalen Bluntson]

I'm grateful for sunny days and natural titties.

moon lit walks and unaltered asses.

Amen. I don't care if they're As or Ds just give em to me

Man boobs?

[Pointgod]

Yeah about Polymarket. The MAGATS are being played and lied to once again. Not sure why the right wing loves grifting

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