OT: Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 319: DDP vs Chimaev, Aaron Pico vs Lerone Murphy

[j4remi]

Fights in Abu Dhabi today, so they're early.

Yan vs McGhee feels like it's too soon for McGhee to me. But we'll see. I put a little something on a parlay, Yan by decision and to have the most significant strikes.

The fight I'm watching closely is De Ridder vs Whitaker. I've mentioned De Ridder being a two-division champ at One FC, and he's looked great in the UFC. But now he's facing a top dog, so this is a huge test. I'm not touching this one on picks, because I like Whitaker in his prime but he hasn't looked like that in the past few fights.

Shara's also back, in a squash match to get his stature back. He's supposed to finish Barriault, but I wouldn't be shocked at Bullet winning by decision instead because I still think he's overhyped.

Other than those, it's mostly mid. Blackshear vs Grant and Ricci vs Ribas on the prelims could be fun fights but don't really have big implications otherwise.

[j4remi]

Got some big news today. UFC signed a new media deal. They're leaving ESPN and moving to Paramount Plus and CBS. The big announcement is numbered events are no longer PPVs. They'll show on CBS or Paramount Plus instead...I'm too used to these things backfiring though, so I'm just waiting to see if Paramount hits us with an additional subscription fee to get access.

For now, it's good news.

[Ghetto Gospel]

Got some big news today. UFC signed a new media deal. They're leaving ESPN and moving to Paramount Plus and CBS. The big announcement is numbered events are no longer PPVs. They'll show on CBS or Paramount Plus instead...I'm too used to these things backfiring though, so I'm just waiting to see if Paramount hits us with an additional subscription fee to get access.

For now, it's good news.

i never would have thought that i'd consider spending money to watch sporting events like this but here we are.

this is actually making me consider a subscription to paramount plus depending on the price (as long as they don't jack up the price, $10/month on the annual plan is fine) and whatever else they got on there. of course this is assuming the website works smoothly and the video/audio clarity is crisp and all which i imagine it would be..?

[GONYK]

Got some big news today. UFC signed a new media deal. They're leaving ESPN and moving to Paramount Plus and CBS. The big announcement is numbered events are no longer PPVs. They'll show on CBS or Paramount Plus instead...I'm too used to these things backfiring though, so I'm just waiting to see if Paramount hits us with an additional subscription fee to get access.

For now, it's good news.

i never would have thought that i'd consider spending money to watch sporting events like this but here we are.

this is actually making me consider a subscription to paramount plus depending on the price (as long as they don't jack up the price, $10/month on the annual plan is fine) and whatever else they got on there. of course this is assuming the website works smoothly and the video/audio clarity is crisp and all which i imagine it would be..?

$60/yr for the fight pass

[Ghetto Gospel]

Got some big news today. UFC signed a new media deal. They're leaving ESPN and moving to Paramount Plus and CBS. The big announcement is numbered events are no longer PPVs. They'll show on CBS or Paramount Plus instead...I'm too used to these things backfiring though, so I'm just waiting to see if Paramount hits us with an additional subscription fee to get access.

For now, it's good news.

i never would have thought that i'd consider spending money to watch sporting events like this but here we are.

this is actually making me consider a subscription to paramount plus depending on the price (as long as they don't jack up the price, $10/month on the annual plan is fine) and whatever else they got on there. of course this is assuming the website works smoothly and the video/audio clarity is crisp and all which i imagine it would be..?

$60/yr for the fight pass

yeah i saw that deal but is the video quality the same as the more expensive one? i have the more expensive netflix one cause i like having the upgraded resolution. sounds weird coming from someone who watches almost all their sports stuff for free and with low video quality but if i'm paying for something, i want it to be as crisp as can be

[j4remi]

So we've got a good one tomorrow. The card for UFC 319 has some really interesting match-ups. Khamzat could be crowned, Aaron Pico makes his debut, and the rest of the fights aren't too shabby either. I wouldn't be shocked if I get a bunch of picks wrong here, so gamblers beware. I'll make a prelims parlay and go HAM if it hits.

The main events:
Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev:

Spoiler:

So, we finally get to see Khamzat compete for a belt. This is such a weird a matchup that it's hard to describe. DDP fights ugly, but he's insanely strong and never slows down. His ground game is seriously slept on, but his takedown defense is as gross as his winging punches. I still don't understand how he makes everything work.

Khamzat is the opposite. Everything he does is sharp. He has the best shot in the game, very crisp striking, and strength behind it all. But Chimaev's gas tank is a serious question mark, and his two most technically gifted opponents fought him to tough decisions...also, they're welterweights.

The prevailing wisdom is that this fight goes one of two ways. Khamzat wins early, or DDP weathers the storm and wins after Chimaev gasses. I lean toward Khamzat in this scenario, because I think he can take down DDP and eke out rounds even if he's tired. But I also think Khamzat might be even better than we expect. He's got a new cardio coach and made weight more comfortably than I've seen before (though in fairness, coming in at 183 is also a little worrisome).

Khamzat by submission is my pick. But I'm wary.

Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico:

Spoiler:

Talk about two different journeys for phenoms. Aaron Pico was the hottest prospect at 145 to shun the UFC. He took a development deal with Bellator to hone his craft, got thrown the wolves and promptly got KO'ed (twice). But he's still an olympic level wrestler with near equal boxing behind it, and he's gotten better and better. His power is crazy in everything he does.

Lerone Murphy has never lost in 17 fights, and nearly half of these are against UFC competition, including several high-caliber opponents. His striking is his best quality but he can grapple effectively too, and he doesn't slow down.

This fight is a pick 'em. I lean toward Pico's wrestling, but Murphy could catch him at any time. Octagon jitters are real too, and this is Pico's first time in the big show. We've seen some disappointing debuts recently. So, I lean toward Pico by decision but I'm not touching the betting line with a ten foot pole.

The rest is kinda fire:
Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates:

Spoiler:

This marks my most confident bet of the main card. Carlos Prates hails from the Fighting Nerds, and KO'ed his first four opponents in the UFC before learning a tough lesson against Ian Garry. But Garry's on the fringe of a title shot.

Geoff Neal is...kinda falling off. His only since 2023 was when Rafael Dos Anjos hurt his knee before the fight got going. Neal's got a ton of power and a great chin, but he's slowed down a lot.

So, I've got Prates winning this. Probably by decision because Neal is too tough for his own good.

Jared Cannonier vs Michael Venom Page:

Spoiler:

This is actually pretty similar to Neal vs Prates. MVP hasn't shown any slowdown and is a fantastic striker. Cannonier is a great striker, but he's clearly lost a step these days, and he's chinny. It'll be interesting to see if Cannonier tries to wrestle, because that's how he wins this fight.

But I don't think Cannonier will catch up to MVP in time. I've got Page taking a decision and possibly even getting a KO off a well-timed blitz.

Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura:

Spoiler:

This fight SHOULD be a showcase for Asakura. But Asakura has shaky wrestling defense and slows down in grinding fights. Meanwhile, Elliott has been Knocked out once in his entire career, and that was in 2011. Tim's got insane durability to test Asakura's incredible power.

I'm still leaning toward Kai landing enough power to get the dub. But this is more of a pick 'em for me than most people might imagine. Elliott winning ugly would not shock me.

Best of the rest:
Some prelim quick hitters-

Spoiler:

- Chase Hooper vs Alex Hernandez feels like it's made to give us another Hooper showcase. I'd guess he gets a sub before the end of the second round, but Alex is a wrestler who might be able to keep it standing and fun.

- I can't remember the last time I bet on Jessica Andrade, but I'm not big on Loopy Godinez and Andrade is an underdog. So, this pick gives my parlay some teeth.

- Drakkar Klose vs Edson Barboza is gonna be a really fun fight between a sharp striker that's bad on his backfoot, and a wrestler who gets KO'ed sometimes because he refuses to go backwards. I'm betting on Klose, the slight dog. But I'll bite my nails throughout the fight.

- Michael Oleksiejczuk lost four of his last six fights. But he moved to the Fighting Nerds, which has people picking him over Gerald Meerschaert. But I'm not betting on this fight because Michael's submission defense has been terrible and that's the one way Gerald wins fights (29 of 37 wins by submission in his career).

- I had Brian Battle in my parlay, but he missed weight by 4 lbs and the fight is canceled. It's embarrassing because Battle talked a lot of crap this week.

[Guano]

Got some big news today. UFC signed a new media deal. They're leaving ESPN and moving to Paramount Plus and CBS. The big announcement is numbered events are no longer PPVs. They'll show on CBS or Paramount Plus instead...I'm too used to these things backfiring though, so I'm just waiting to see if Paramount hits us with an additional subscription fee to get access.

For now, it's good news.

i never would have thought that i'd consider spending money to watch sporting events like this but here we are.

this is actually making me consider a subscription to paramount plus depending on the price (as long as they don't jack up the price, $10/month on the annual plan is fine) and whatever else they got on there. of course this is assuming the website works smoothly and the video/audio clarity is crisp and all which i imagine it would be..?

Ive been stealing sports for decades and im actually considering getting Paramount if its this cheap

[NoDopeOnSundays]

About to go get some Pizza for this

[NoDopeOnSundays]

2 Brutal knockouts, and DDP got absolutely slaughtered for all but 30 seconds.

[Ghetto Gospel]

so they key to unlocking khamzats cardio is to just save some gas in the gas tank and not go for finishes. unfortunately, this is turning him from the most exciting grappler to an extremely boring, abeit effective, one.

[HEZI]

Just complete dominance from Khamzat. I’m not sure what the game plan for DDP was, I guess maybe he thought Khamzat would get gassed after round 2 and stop shooting.

But what about those back to back round 1 spinning elbow knockouts in the previous 2 fights that was wild

[j4remi]

DDP has always kinda bothered me. His style is ugly, he's always off-balance, and he gets away with it because he's crazy strong. Khamzat was too strong and technically good for that. I've never seen someone casually move into the crucifix so often. It all just makes me feel like Dricus is more of a weight bully than anything, and his lack of urgency meant he didn't get submitted but also didn't do anything to make Khamzat waste his gas tank.

Khamzat's cardio was better, and he was way more measured here. But he still slowed down considerably by the end of the fourth (he shot right into a knee). The sad part is that I think better wrestlers might weather the storm and beat Khamzat. Fluffy Hernandez is who I'm most curious about, because of his motor. But idk if he could survive early subs.

What do yall think the MW match-ups should be from here out. I assume the winner of Borralho vs Imavov gets the next crack at the belt. I HOPE they don't try to forcefeed us another Strickland title shot.

Here's my wishlist for MW match-ups:
Chimaev vs winner of Borralho/Imavov
DDP vs Anthony Hernandez
Strickland vs MVP
De Ridder vs the loser of Borralho/Imavov
Adesanya vs Costa 2

[HEZI]

DDP has always kinda bothered me. His style is ugly, he's always off-balance, and he gets away with it because he's crazy strong. Khamzat was too strong and technically good for that. I've never seen someone casually move into the crucifix so often. It all just makes me feel like Dricus is more of a weight bully than anything, and his lack of urgency meant he didn't get submitted but also didn't do anything to make Khamzat waste his gas tank.

Khamzat's cardio was better, and he was way more measured here. But he still slowed down considerably by the end of the fourth (he shot right into a knee). The sad part is that I think better wrestlers might weather the storm and beat Khamzat. Fluffy Hernandez is who I'm most curious about, because of his motor. But idk if he could survive early subs.

What do yall think the MW match-ups should be from here out. I assume the winner of Borralho vs Imavov gets the next crack at the belt. I HOPE they don't try to forcefeed us another Strickland title shot.

Here's my wishlist for MW match-ups:
Chimaev vs winner of Borralho/Imavov
DDP vs Anthony Hernandez
Strickland vs MVP
De Ridder vs the loser of Borralho/Imavov
Adesanya vs Costa 2

Personally I’d like it to be Imavov. Completely agree about Strickland, not trying to watch that

[j4remi]

DDP has always kinda bothered me. His style is ugly, he's always off-balance, and he gets away with it because he's crazy strong. Khamzat was too strong and technically good for that. I've never seen someone casually move into the crucifix so often. It all just makes me feel like Dricus is more of a weight bully than anything, and his lack of urgency meant he didn't get submitted but also didn't do anything to make Khamzat waste his gas tank.

Khamzat's cardio was better, and he was way more measured here. But he still slowed down considerably by the end of the fourth (he shot right into a knee). The sad part is that I think better wrestlers might weather the storm and beat Khamzat. Fluffy Hernandez is who I'm most curious about, because of his motor. But idk if he could survive early subs.

What do yall think the MW match-ups should be from here out. I assume the winner of Borralho vs Imavov gets the next crack at the belt. I HOPE they don't try to forcefeed us another Strickland title shot.

Here's my wishlist for MW match-ups:
Chimaev vs winner of Borralho/Imavov
DDP vs Anthony Hernandez
Strickland vs MVP
De Ridder vs the loser of Borralho/Imavov
Adesanya vs Costa 2

Personally I’d like it to be Imavov. Completely agree about Strickland, not trying to watch that

On paper, I think Imavov is a slightly better matchup against Chimaev. But I stan the Fighting Nerds, and I'd be really curious what their analytics-driven approach would mean for Borralho's approach. As long as the winner between those two guys gets the next shot, I'll be happy.

The one way I could see someone skipping past them is if Chimaev goes for a quick turnaround to fight in Abu Dhabi, but it's hard to picture that after he fought 5 rounds on Saturday/Sunday.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

[j4remi]

Chimaev and RDR have been having a back and forth on twitter. I could see that fight being made if Chimaev wants a quick turn around, because it's hard to picture Imavov/Borralho ending with one of them healthy enough to go straight into another camp.

[Guano]

MW is loaded with talent.

I fck with all the match ups you suggested. Would be dope of that Izzy vs Costa fight was his swan song. Im not interested in watching Izzy get starched anymore.

As for the belt I dont see khamzat holding onto it for too long. Sure his cardio was somewhat improved. But he, wisely, kept it in 2nd gear all night. And that Burns fight doesnt instill a lot of confidence against some of these guys coming up. Really excited to see what happens. Just hope he is active.

[Guano]

Gonna be so entertaining

Read on Twitter

[j4remi]

Gonna be so entertaining

Read on Twitter

This is such a fun fight. They're the two grittiest guys in the division. If I had to pick someone to wear Chimaev down, these would be my top two (Fluffy first, De Ridder second).

I foresee a FOTY contender.

[Guano]

Gonna be so entertaining

Read on Twitter

This is such a fun fight. They're the two grittiest guys in the division. If I had to pick someone to wear Chimaev down, these would be my top two (Fluffy first, De Ridder second).

I foresee a FOTY contender.

Theyre both super tough and exciting. So hard to pick or even decide who im going to root for as theyre both likable. These are the kind of fights that make this sport so great.