Offseason Thread: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

[VirginiaKnickFan]

very. the risk averse will understandably pass. the gamblers will take a shot.

Bobby Marks, the former Nets assistant GM and current ESPN cap guru, has made his pro-Durant beliefs known. He sees the best-case scenario of another tanked season with Durant rehabbing and going for big things in 2020-21 with more cap space.

I've been onboard the tank already, regardless of the FA outcome.

i get that if KD signs and no one wants to join now. i'd have to take the bird in the hand if someone does. i'm not worried about my tank if my pups can make the playoffs with another star player before KD even takes the court.

if it's KD and no one, i'm fine with that too. let the pups fight through it. i'm not into playing (not playing) for a pick. if you sign KD, you'd better be trying your damnedest to compete so you don't waste the reduced court time you have with him.

This season should show if some of the young players have made some progress and shown improvement through their offseason development and a training camp together, barring injuries. Frank, Knox and DJ for example. If they don't show marked improvement, then the tank will be a byproduct of their failed effort and they you can move on from some of them.

[god shammgod]

KD is not KD anymore. He's Joel Ingles at best.

Either way, I will support and root for him if he comes here. But my heart and gut strongly say 'hell **** no!'.

jesus

[F N 11]

If Kyrie and KD come I’m not sure how imma feel with Kyrie having us as his back up plan.

[Deeeez Knicks]

sounds like executives around the league are split down the middle. it is a tough one.

very. the risk averse will understandably pass. the gamblers will take a shot.

Bobby Marks, the former Nets assistant GM and current ESPN cap guru, has made his pro-Durant beliefs known. He sees the best-case scenario of another tanked season with Durant rehabbing and going for big things in 2020-21 with more cap space.

I've been onboard the tank already, regardless of the FA outcome.

Yeah, that could be a good plan if we sign Durant. That could work out well

[Richard4444]

I am still torn about Durants signing. One aspect worth consideration is what will be changed in our roster building strategy after Durant arrival.

Stars will be reluctant to sign deals with Knicks without knowing how good and healthy Durant will return.

And Front Office will be rushed to make trades for veterans in order to contender as soon as possible to optimize Durant best Knicks years.

My concern is Durant will not be here to help Knicks evolution but Knicks would have to help Durant to become a title contender as soon as possible and whatever the cost.

[BeagleBoss]

When is the last time we signed a top 15 all-time player?

Your level of play plays no factor here.

It definitely does. It provides a higher baseline of return. 80% of KD is still better than most of the league while 80% of Brandon Jennings put him out of the league...

The whole reason this thing is an argument is the fact that this is KD we're talking about here and not some B-Level star.

Just because KD is better than Brandon Jennings, it doesn't mean his achilles will heal better and it will be as if nothing happened. An 80% KD is a b-level player. I keep bringing up Joe Ingles/Bojan Bogdanovic because that's what I think KD will become. A solid 18/5/5 player with mediocre defense. Is that worth a MAX contract? Not to me.

[BeagleBoss]

KD is not KD anymore. He's Joel Ingles at best.

Either way, I will support and root for him if he comes here. But my heart and gut strongly say 'hell **** no!'.

jesus

I hope I'm dead wrong but to believe KD won't lose a lot of skills with a torn achilles at his age is foolish.

[thebuzzardman]

So, ignoring all the rumors lately, what if the original rumor holds true, about KD and Kyrie.

What is the Knicks record first year with Kyrie only and what are the team's prospects moving forward?

Vague list of pluses and minuses

Pluses
Solves PG for the next 4 years
True scoring and passing all star to have some offensive gravity yet involve teammates while the kids develop
KD rehabs for a year
Playoff team in the crap east, probably 7th or 8th seed, ultimately decided by a few wins or losses. 40-42 wins
Team retains all current youth and picks moving forward
*theoretical plus - KD comes back in a year and is somewhere between fading Melo, Tobias Harris to completely recovered

Minuses
Team is now capped out for 4 years for likely middling playoff team - 7/8 if KD stays hurt and kids don't develop, 6/7 if KD stays hurt but kids develop, 5/6 if KD comes back as fading Melo, 1-2 (in east) if KD comes back good as new (highly unlikely)

Kyrie could suck all the enthusiasm out of the locker room

KD never recovers, at all. 4 years of a 40 million dollar anchor

Knicks picks immediately drop in the draft, most noticeably next season - theoretical gap largest between "all kids and 1 year vets" vs "with Kyrie", gap closes somewhat vs next 3 years where kids might develop, or trades or other FA could have happened

Hard to make moves to improve the team, other than managing the shuffle of drafted players off and on the team - ie, Frank or DSJr or Knox or Trier out, other players in etc

This would not be true here. Locker room turmoil was expected when you return to a team that overachieved without you and their young star begins to feel who he is. There is no such scenario here. We just came off of the worst record in the league and every player here as something to learn. This situation is uniquely built for Kyrie. In fact, I'd prefer it to hoping DSJr becomes a true PG and a leader. I'd be THRILLED with Kyrie leading this team until KD got healthy.

I listed it as a potential minus for completions sake.

I'm not that invested in any of those predictions. Part of the reason I stated it was a "loose list" of pluses and minuses.

It could certainly be different. That Boston situation is probably confined to it's own dynamic, from the team's success before Kyrie, to the players on the team themselves. It's worth noting because if Kyrie was stronger on leadership skills, it might not gotten out of hand. Also, the degree which it was "bad" is possibly overstated.

Kyrie is talented enough where I'd take the chance. He'd be better with another vet, preferably one with more tangible leadership skills.

I'm still pretty wary of signing up for Kyrie\KD duo, Feels like an upmarket version of Melo and Stat - not the same in the sense Kyrie is creative from the PG/Wing, where Melo was more a "finisher" and so was Stat. And healthy KD was vastly more versatile than Stat. They'd be similar in that KD would occupy the "broken and fading" version of Stat, which is what he was after, what, 1.5 seasons?

[BBALLER4FR]

I was beginning to get on board with signing KD and letting him get the maximum ful year of rest provided Kyrie joined him and kept the ship afloat in the meantime. But then dudes here actually consider giving GS 3 young scorers as compensation for KD to come over with his full supermax and now I've realized that we've got some fans that couldn't give a fig one way or another how bad this could get. If he doesn't sign outright on June 30th and he decides to let it play out, I swear Perry better be a f*kking man, stay true to him word, move on and do it quickly and publicly. You don't let a lame Durant hold you hostage. Healthy KD? SURE!!! Not old KD with worse injury possible. It's Melo all over again.

[Knicksfan1992]

KD is not KD anymore. He's Joel Ingles at best.

Either way, I will support and root for him if he comes here. But my heart and gut strongly say 'hell **** no!'.

jesus

I'm not even goign to respond to his post directly to me because that's possibly the worst take of all time

[coopnyc74]

Injured KD is Joe Ingles now...mane cmon

[Clyde_Style]

Read on Twitter

sounds like executives around the league are split down the middle. it is a tough one.

very. the risk averse will understandably pass. the gamblers will take a shot.

Yes, true, but I'd refine that point by saying someone like myself believes you need to position yourself properly to take a big risk first.

A gambler who wagers their whole stake and loses it is an amateur.

A gambler who wagers a part of their stake on a big risk and loses it lives to gamble another day.

Gambling on KD now before they you established a base of at least several players one could confidently say would constitute the rotation of a contending team is reckless.

If it works, then maybe KD is healthy by the time you have that core developed, but if development didn't pan out in the probably 2 years before KD hits his stride again, then you've locked up max money on a player without having built a contender to go with them yet.

There are different views about building a contender. Some think you get the big star, then slap together a team around them. I think the opposite. I think you need to build a base of talent and if you're lucky one of those developing players is your star and leader, but if not then you add the star to that base.

So my definition of risk scenario analysis includes adding an injured KD and either

(a) he ain't all that anymore in which case you effed yourself hard tying up cap space on a gimpy player

or

(b) he comes back able to perform and the team still is not ready to contend

In either case, you've screwed yourself for five years of cap space and that is a bad gamble I think only an amateur GM would make.

If Perry does it I'll admit I'll be very deflated. I hope he doesn't.

To me, signing KD is an all-in move at the wrong time. That's the kind of poker play I would bet against.

[mpharris36]

Even if he’s a shell of himself we won’t care because Mitch, Knox, RJ, Trier, DSJ, And Frank would of all developed into the best version of themselves.

my thought process is even if KD doesn't totally work out and come back to form for next were we will still be developing our youth and should get a high draft pick.

If we sign guys like Randle/DLO or other we tie up all our cap space and take our developmental minutes away plus might be a 9th or 8th seed and reep no draft pick reward.

KD almost ties up space to not do anything stupid and continue the build...which is sad but that is worse case scenario. Best case is KD redshirts and comes back close to 100%, the kids develop, and we get a high 2020 pick. That is Plan A right now

[thebuzzardman]

Hyperbole aside, what is the most realistic player KD is after a year of rehabbing?

I'll throw out guesses

Tobias Harris
Faded Melo
Cadillac Ryan Anderson
End of the Road Pete Maravich
Post surgery Kobe
Fancy Mirotic
Old Dirk

Anyone?

[robillionaire]

I want the Knicks to sign Kd, but what you do with the rest of the cap is really intriguing, we know KD is out next year, but what free agents are available next summer that are going to join, because what will the Knicks be even 2 years from now even if KD returns? KD and hoping the young kids take a huge leap forward..that’s risky..

I would take a swing for AD next summer because AD would be worth signing no matter what, but if that doesn't pan out then I wouldn't sign any mid-tier free agents only 1 year deals and just wait until summer 2021 and see if KD looks like himself his first year back, and to see if he and the kids can even make us a playoff team in 2020-2021.

If after his first season back he's looking washed up and the team still sucks I wouldn't even sign anybody and start looking to trade him to a contender or just shut him down and keep rebuilding for his last 2 years or use his expiring contract as a trade chip in year 4

[Clyde_Style]

Even if he’s a shell of himself we won’t care because Mitch, Knox, RJ, Trier, DSJ, And Frank would of all developed into the best version of themselves.

my thought process is even if KD doesn't totally work out and come back to form for next were we will still be developing our youth and should get a high draft pick.

If we sign guys like Randle/DLO or other we tie up all our cap space and take our developmental minutes away plus might be a 9th or 8th seed and reep no draft pick reward.

KD almost ties up space to not do anything stupid and continue the build...which is sad but that is worse case scenario. Best case is KD redshirts and comes back close to 100%, the kids develop, and we get a high 2020 pick. That is Plan A right now

That is sad and not a defensible justification though

[robillionaire]

Hyperbole aside, what is the most realistic player KD is after a year of rehabbing?

I'll throw out guesses

Tobias Harris
Faded Melo
Cadillac Ryan Anderson
End of the Road Pete Maravich
Post surgery Kobe
Fancy Mirotic
Old Dirk

Anyone?

brandon ingram?

[DOT]

Assuming KD comes back at 80%, yeah he'd still be a really good player, but is he worth 40 million a year, especially when we don't have any other stars?

That's the issue, you still need another star at the end of the day, hell you still need a #1, cause KD at 80% isn't a #1 guy, he's more of a #2/3. Sure, RJ may become a #1, we likely get another top 5 pick next year who may become one, but not in the timeframe of KD being here. But because you're paying him 40 million, we won't have the cap space to go out and get a #1 in FA if one makes it there, we'd have to trade for him, which kinda defeats the purpose of keeping and developing our young guys

Like, if we sign KD, we have to understand that unless we trade for a #1 guy, the earliest we'd be able to compete is the last year of his contract if everybody develops to their potential, and even then maybe not. I just don't see the point of it, if it were an ACL or MCL and he was likely to come back 100%, just miss a year, that's a different story. It's just not a good move imo

[god shammgod]

I want the Knicks to sign Kd, but what you do with the rest of the cap is really intriguing, we know KD is out next year, but what free agents are available next summer that are going to join, because what will the Knicks be even 2 years from now even if KD returns? KD and hoping the young kids take a huge leap forward..that’s risky..

I would take a swing for AD next summer because AD would be worth signing no matter what, but if that doesn't pan out then I wouldn't sign any mid-tier free agents only 1 year deals and just wait until summer 2021 and see if KD looks like himself his first year back, and to see if he and the kids can even make us a playoff team in 2020-2021.

If after his first season back he's looking washed up and the team still sucks I wouldn't even sign anybody and start looking to trade him to a contender or just shut him down and keep rebuilding for his last 2 years or use his expiring contract as a trade chip in year 4

that seems unlikely, unless we're taking chris paul back.

[Knick4Real]

THOUGHTS:

- Hopefully, the KNICKS have instructed their accountants to work up a spreadsheet with the projected increase in sales the Kawhi New Balance shoe would receive should he come to MSG. That should be the first order of business in the meeting with Kawhi.

- Hopefully, all the millionaire/billionaire businessmen who own luxury suites at MSG and set up business deals for KD a year ago to come to NYC have contacted him by now to remind him that their deals are contingent upon him coming to the KNICKS and not the Nets.

- Kyrie is a weird dude and a known troll. I wouldn't be surprised if the "I'm going to the Nets" talk was just his way of appearing different and unpredictable.