OT: Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 319: DDP vs Chimaev, Aaron Pico vs Lerone Murphy

[j4remi]

Here's some messiness for this weekend's card. This weekend's main event is Johnny Walker vs Zhang Mingyang, which is cool but it's #14 vs #13 and probably won't last long. The fun fight is Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling, a multi-time title challenger and a former champ.

But news came out that Brian Ortega had to pull out due to a weight-cutting issue. Mind yall, a few hours ago, Aljo was livestreaming his weight cut and chatting about how much it sucks. https://www.youtube.com/live/4C5LKW5U5KU

He also expressed frustration earlier this week about signing to fight five rounds but only getting three-round money. So, it seemed like this was doomed. But the two fighters share a manager, and the fight is back on at 153 lbs now. It's weird, and I'm not sure if it's good that Ortega is still competing but the "weight cutting issue" hasn't been disclosed anywhere I've looked.

Nah, this feels concerning

Read on Twitter

[j4remi]

The hits keep coming for the UFC's run of shame. UFC Shanghai was kinda awful, and headlined by Brian Ortega's scary weight-miss while still being allowed to fight.

The biggest winner of the weekend was Charles Johnson who has fought a lot in a short span, but was still coming into the fight broke. This one's not cut and dried, to be fair. He's gotten some bonuses and fought a lot, but fighters need a pay increase across the board.

Then we got the situation with Rampage's son, which is only loosely related, but just a terrible look for MMA.

And we've got two decorated UFC vets returning to combat sports, which is another example of "fighters deserve more money" because there's no way I picture them doing it for love. Franky Edgar is joining BKFC, which I don't like. But even worse, Tony Ferguson is making his boxing debut against Salt Papi, a youtuber who got famous boxing other youtubers. Win, Lose or Draw; it's a depressing turn for Tony's career.

There's also no UFC this weekend, which takes away any distractions from all the negative publicity.

Even the brightspot of this weekend, my most anticipated event of the year, CJI 2 didn't escape this bad run unscathed. Gable Stevenson has pulled out of his main event match with Craig, due to turf toe. I don't buy that, especially because Gable's LFA debut is right around the corner.

But anyway, CJI 2 is probably going to be more entertaining than 90% of the UFC's this year, if not all of 'em. The Quintet model and Karate Combat ring really turn BJJ into a more exciting sport even for the less-initiated. Craig's prone to pagaentry too, which should add at least some PRIDE energy to the mix.

[j4remi]

CJI 2 is live

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=FloGrappling

Read on Twitter

Craig wasn't happy with last night's results. Honestly, some of the teams were super lopsided, and it led to a lot of strategically chasing draws. I think tonight was always gonna be better as the teams get more evenly matched, but that bonus money is only gonna amp it up.

[j4remi]

It's Fight Nerds week. The main and co-main of the card this weekend feature two of the highest-rated fighting nerds' crew. The card took a hit after Patricio Pitbull vs Losene Keita (a very exciting prospect) due to Keita's weight cut issues. But it's still pretty strong at the top. Here are some quick picks...

Fighting Nerds continue to takeover?

Spoiler:

Caio Borralho vs Nassourdine Imavov:
The winner of this is probably fighting Khamzat Chimaev for the belt next. They're both well-rounded fighters with proven track records against quality opponents. Imavov has fought the tougher schedule, while Borralho is undefeated in the UFC (though he did lose one of the first fights of his career). Imavov has crazy KO power and mobility, while Borralho has better game planning, discipline, and toughness.

This is a toss-up. I really view these guys as the second and third best fighters in the division, with live chances to upset Chimaev on the right night. So, take it with a grain of salt, but I'm leaning toward Borralho and the Nerds to take note of how Sean Strickland beat Imavov.

Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy:
The finish reels for both these guys are crazy. Saint-Denis was supposed to be next up in the LW division until Dustin Poirier derailed him. He's got 14 wins, all by KO or submission. Everything he throws has power behind it, but that makes him hittable. Ruffy is a GIANT for lightweight, with 11 KO's in 12 wins. He fights with low hands, daring guys to step into range, and then he punishes them. But low hands means...hittable.

So I expect a slugfest. I think Ruffy has been christened a little prematurely. He's unproven against the top guys in the division. But BSD is kinda the perfect matchup, because BSD's best defense is offense. I lean toward Ruffy, and expect this fight to finish inside of regulation. But either guy can get their head taken off at any moment.

What else do we have to watch?

Spoiler:

Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig:
Paul Craig's being advertised as the guy who finished LHW champion Ankalaev, but that's misleading. It happened seven years ago. In recent history, Craig's 1-5-1 in his last 7 fights. His striking is terrible, and fighters have realized not to follow him to the mat. Bukauskas is pretty mid, but I feel like that's all it takes to beat Craig. Gimme Modestas by KO.

Rhys Mckee vs Axel Sola:
Sola has an undefeated record out of Ares FC...I'm not familiar with Ares FC. Rhys McKee is 1-4 in the UFC, but he's 12-2 everywhere else, and tbh I've always stanned his indy circuit career. So, if I could get a decent betting line, I'd bet on McKee to win because Sola's less experienced and should have some octagon jitters. But I'm seeing McKee at +116 right now, and that's not worth risking a bet against an unknown.

Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones:
Jury's still out on whether or not Bolaji Oki is a hot prospect or a Tuesday Night Contenders pretender. He's only fought three times in the past three years, and lost to his only quality opponent. Mason Jones struggled in the UFC, got cut, STEAMROLLED Cage Warriors opponents, and came back to beat a very old Jeremy Stephens.

I think Mason Jones is valid. I'm not sure about Oki because I just haven't seen enough. So, this is another case where I'd rather not bet.

Interesting Prelims:

Spoiler:

- Antes Delija was a super legit HW outside of the UFC, but he's been pretty inactive recently. He's a hell of a striker, and up against Marcin Tybura who has lost a step. But buyer beware of the curse of the UFC newcomer.

- Oumar Sy feels like he got a gifted opponent that the UFC expects to beat. Ribeiro hasn't shown much in the UFC, but his submission game is valid enough that I won't just outright call Sy is no-brainer...but Sy should win.

- Rinat Fakrhetdinov is kinda famous for some boring fights. But the dude always wins. He fights Andreas Gustaffson, who seems really green, but is a very intriguing prospect. It feels like another chance for Rinat to piss people off with an upset.

- Trey Waters is a prospect to watch. 9-1 with the only loss coming to a Bonfim bro. But Sammy Paterson is an even more impressive prospect with three straight UFC wins after losing his debut. Sam passes the eye test for someone that could break into ranked competition with time.

[Ghetto Gospel]

oh well, at least we have jean silva

serious fraud check for ruffy...

[j4remi]

oh well, at least we have jean silva

serious fraud check for ruffy...

Ruffy got worked over by body kicks and takedown attempts. He REALLY has to learn some ring craft. Honestly, Caio coulda done a lot better at angling off too. But I thought Borrahlo looked like he belongs. He just needed to put together combinations to make a competitive loss, a tough decision. Both losses are the types that prospects often need, to level up. BDS ran into the same sorta lessons when he fought Poirier.

Mason Jones and Axel Sola both made really strong impressions with their wins, and Bolaji Oka was impressive even while losing. William Gomis and Kuae Fernandes are my performers of the night. Gomis looks like "what if young Leon Edwards fought with some aggression."

[Ghetto Gospel]

oh well, at least we have jean silva

serious fraud check for ruffy...

Ruffy got worked over by body kicks and takedown attempts. He REALLY has to learn some ring craft. Honestly, Caio coulda done a lot better at angling off too. But I thought Borrahlo looked like he belongs. He just needed to put together combinations to make a competitive loss, a tough decision. Both losses are the types that prospects often need, to level up. BDS ran into the same sorta lessons when he fought Poirier.

Mason Jones and Axel Sola both made really strong impressions with their wins, and Bolaji Oka was impressive even while losing. William Gomis and Kuae Fernandes are my performers of the night. Gomis looks like "what if young Leon Edwards fought with some aggression."

i'm not so hopeful on ruffy as a serious prospect because it appears he legitimately has no ground game. there were a couple of times where he had top position and he just avoided BSD's guard letting him get back up for free and i'm not even sure BSD's guard is even like that..? i guess his profile fits in at lightweight with the poiriers, gaethjes, hookers, etc. but yeah.

caio i thought looked kind of lost and confused for the majority of the fight. there's just nothing special about his game, solid 5-10 ranking to me

[j4remi]

i'm not so hopeful on ruffy as a serious prospect because it appears he legitimately has no ground game. there were a couple of times where he had top position and he just avoided BSD's guard letting him get back up for free and i'm not even sure BSD's guard is even like that..? i guess his profile fits in at lightweight with the poiriers, gaethjes, hookers, etc. but yeah.

caio i thought looked kind of lost and confused for the majority of the fight. there's just nothing special about his game, solid 5-10 ranking to me

Yeah, Ruffy didn't look interested in playing in BSD's guard at all. But he had a nice sweep and didn't get into much trouble there. I'm more concerned with his movement straight back instead of at angles, and his complete lack of a counter-measure to straight-up bodykicks. Guys like Gaethje and Hooker get by off sprawling and being able to get up quickly when they're put to the mat, which I think Ruffy could develop. His footwork was atrocious though.

Caio just looked flat to me, and I don't think we can disambiguate that from him cutting weight twice inside of a month and traveling from Sao Paulo or New Hampshire to Chicago and then to France in the last four weeks before the fight. He couldn't train at full gear while weight-cutting to be an alternate for DDP vs Chimaev; then his last four weeks were following that first weight cut with multiple travel stops and media engagements. He made a really foolish choice taking this fight so close to that weight cut.

[Ghetto Gospel]

it's unfathomable that kelvin gastelum misses weight at middleweight, how is he a professional

[MrDollarBills]

Are we talking about Saul vs Bud or nah

[Guano]

Santiago Luna is exciting as hell. His defense is a lil sloppy but he is all gas. Fun fighter.

[Guano]

Are we talking about Saul vs Bud or nah

No idea who wins cause I dont follow boxing very well. I did catch Buds fight against Spence. that was some of the most impressive boxing/fighting I've ever seen in my life. Hell it was one of the most impressive sports performances I've ever seen. He was completely in the zone.

I like both fighters. Respect canelo for turning down big money to support his people. Basically ill be watching the fights like this

[Ghetto Gospel]

rip to all the nerds..

[Guano]

rip to all the nerds..

Sheesh what a devastating couple weeks for that camp.

That was a a fun card.

Marred only by the gastelum fight. Its fcked up seeing someone that is absurdly overweight win. It fcks with the 'honor' of the fight.

[Guano]

These counters and the speed.

Read on Twitter

[MrDollarBills]

These counters and the speed.

Read on Twitter

Bud performed a boxing masterclass last night.

[MrDollarBills]

Also, Rest well Rickey Hatton. Way too young man.

[j4remi]

I was concussed in Nashville while Jean Silva fought completely undisciplined and ran into a spinning back elbow, and Bud put on an absolute gem of a performance against Canelo. I don't have much thoughts because it's all a blur, but I didn't think the Canelo fight was particularly close and I hope they don't do an immediate rematch...though, Canelo and Crawford made almost as much money in one night as the entire UFC roster made in all of 2024. Money talks, so we'll see.

[Ghetto Gospel]

I was concussed in Nashville while Jean Silva fought completely undisciplined and ran into a spinning back elbow, and Bud put on an absolute gem of a performance against Canelo. I don't have much thoughts because it's all a blur, but I didn't think the Canelo fight was particularly close and I hope they don't do an immediate rematch...though, Canelo and Crawford made almost as much money in one night as the entire UFC roster made in all of 2024. Money talks, so we'll see.

hope you're doing alright, take care of yourself

[j4remi]

I was concussed in Nashville while Jean Silva fought completely undisciplined and ran into a spinning back elbow, and Bud put on an absolute gem of a performance against Canelo. I don't have much thoughts because it's all a blur, but I didn't think the Canelo fight was particularly close and I hope they don't do an immediate rematch...though, Canelo and Crawford made almost as much money in one night as the entire UFC roster made in all of 2024. Money talks, so we'll see.

hope you're doing alright, take care of yourself

Many thanks. I took a bad fall during a Men's League basketball game, and wound up with a cut over my eye like a prize fighter. Got stitched up and flew to Nashville in a 24-hour span. So, I was walking around downtown Nashville, with half my face swollen, bruised, and patched up...I honestly didn't realize just how cloudy my head was until I got back to normalcy. About one week of walking in a fog left me a little nervous, but it cleared up.

All that to say, I have no idea how fighters do so much head trauma. My entire vacation is a blurry mess, without any major drinking or anything like that. I couldn't have worked if I wanted to. The idea of any of that lingering like CTE is genuinely scary!

I'm also blaming the fact that I'm in the red for two consecutive weeks betting for the first time in a couple of months on the concussion. Though, it's probably more to do with me adding football bets to my combat sports betting