Countdown to NBA Draft: Prospect Talk

[NYKnicksTAPE]

If we want a 90's Knicks basketball then:

Gallo or Manny (Ward)
Mathews or Green (Houston)
Johnson or Carroll(Sprewell)
Carmelo (Johnson)
M.Gasol (Ewing)

=> Hire Thibs and Ewing as our lead assistants

Chill!

[Jstarks3]

briggs proving once again he is consistently the most insane person on this board.

[IAmTheBest]

Danilo Fuzaro--explanation. He looks perfect FOR THE TRIANGLE. A PG who is ambidextrous athletic with great penetrating skills a jumpshot and solid defense. I think he is so good that I do NOT want the Knicks to take ANY PG up top and instead of looking at Jordan Mickey--just take Porzingis at 4 slightly over Kaminsky. Also want Pat Connaghuton for 3 and D SG in 2nd round.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snrNhPqgO2s


Draft

1A Porzingis 7-2 215 PF/C
1B Kaminsky 7-1 235 PF/C

Pick 23-28 acquired Fuzaro 6-5 190 PG

Pick 43-48 acquired Connaghton SG-6-5 220

Thesis


Big man up top who has just a slight advantage longer term over Kaminsky after studying him for a week.
PG late rd 1 love this kid hes going to be great.
3 and D player under rated super athletic 42.5% shooter at 6-5

[Crunch time 1]

My mind is made up I want

Super Mario with the 4th pick

I see a star when I watch him it would be a mistake not to draft him to much upside

[DowNY]

My mind is made up I want

Super Mario with the 4th pick

I see a star when I watch him it would be a mistake not to draft him to much upside

[Crunch time 1]

You don't think he have a lot of upside?

[Crunch time 1]

He can shoot got hoops handle he 6/8 got fire in his game. He will fit our system.

[TheBigBoss]

My mind is made up I want

Super Mario with the 4th pick

I see a star when I watch him it would be a mistake not to draft him to much upside

I want either Mudiay, Russell, or Super Mario with our pick. No need to trade the pick nor select WCS, Winslow, etc. If Phil selects Mario then that gives me more confidence that he might see the potential Kobe inside of him.

[AlphakirA]

I don't see a scenario where the Knicks pass up Okafor unless Towns gets hurt and drops to 4.


You have the exact thought process as I do with the Lakers. I think in Russell they are going to see CP3 that they missed out on and allowing Kobe to mold him will be too tempting. Building around two big men in Randle and Okafor would be a bit odd.

What is your reason for drafting an offensively blessed player whose worst games came against the closest thing to NBA-sized competition he faced?

I don't follow college basketball so outside of watching these guys in the Final Four and clips, I don't have any particular knowledge about them. Saying all of that, based off of what I've seen I'd take Russell over any other guy in the draft - I just don't think the Knicks would. I've read Phil's most recent book and he really doesn't value PGs as much as skilled big men. The hardest part about the draft is that 0% of these guys have faced any NBA competition and everyone is forced to guess who of the 60 picks will be able to. Maybe Okafor can't handle NBA guys...but this isn't the 90s where powerful centers are going to stop you. How many big men have a legitimate defensive game to stop amazing footwork and aren't just good help defenders (Tyson, DeAndre)? Maybe 5 guys?

[EchelonNYK]

Who are you crazy mofos in love with now? At this point it's either going to be Russell or Mudiay, with a few dark horses in Winslow and Johnson. No f'n euro.

[TheBigBoss]

My mind is made up I want

Super Mario with the 4th pick

I see a star when I watch him it would be a mistake not to draft him to much upside

What is funny about that? Hezonja is easily one of, if not the most athletic guy in this draft, not to mention he is 6'8 and can shoot with good handles. All it comes down to is what is between the ears, that is the difference between Kobe and JR Smith, Phil has degrees in psychology and has been around MJ, Kobe, and JR Smith so he knows the difference. So if he drafts him with our pick then that means he believes that he has the mental makeup to be a star.

[damedash09]

Mario at 4, I was just saying pick this guy. Dude looks like a potential offensive monster. I'm not sure about his defense, but his game is smooth

[damedash09]

EliotShorrParks 13h13 hours ago

I'm slowly starting to talk myself into Mario Hezonja as the right pick for the #Sixers. Would Hinkie do it at 3? http://www.nj.com/sixers/index.ssf/2015 ... cart_river …

[Marty McFly]

hezonja to the sixers makes a lot more sense than porzingis to the lakers with the second pick.

[Fury]

Aight, I'm not saying he's bad, but when did this Super Mario hype start?

[Zooropa]

Lot of off-court red flags regarding Mario. Not something the Knicks have had good luck with.

[DickGrayson]

Winslow certainly does not have a better offensive game. MKG had a slightly better handle, was a better slasher, ran the court among the best of them, better in the post and got to free throw line/made free throws better.

prove it.
Handles, Slasher, and running the court in full break.
everything besides FT shooting.
prove it.

[DickGrayson]

Jahlil Okafor is 6-foot-11 and 270 pounds. He has catcher’s mitts for hands, and a Barkley-size ass. His footwork has the polish of a 10-year pro, and he’s quick enough to explode into spin moves around defenders and finish with either hand. On a college basketball floor, Okafor looks like a varsity player surrounded by eighth graders. And all of that is why it’s amazing that watching Duke right now means blurting out, “Forget about Okafor, what about THAT GUY?”

That guy is Justise Winslow.

More March Madness

All the Grantland coverage of the 2015 NCAA tournament, right here.He isn’t bigger than everyone else on the court, he’s barely polished, and it doesn’t matter. He’s the guy you can’t stop watching. I talked about him in the NBA draft notes last week, but before the Final Four picks up again this weekend, I think we need to go a little deeper here.
First of all, Winslow is the reason Duke is in the Final Four. We know that, right? In the Sweet 16, he delivered the knockout punch (21 points, 10 rebounds) when Utah was threatening to make a comeback in the second half. On Sunday it was the same thing. Gonzaga had a chance to tie the game at 53, with just under five minutes left. But Kyle Wiltjer missed a layup for the tie, and then Winslow went to work.

He attacked the rim and got fouled, draining two free throws. On the next possession, Tyus Jones missed a 3, but Winslow got the rebound and drew a foul on the putback. Two more free throws. Next possession: Winslow grabbed the board on defense, jab-stepped into the defense on the other end, and drained a 3. Seven straight points meant a two-point lead turned into nine. The game was pretty much over at that point.

It’s not a knock on the other Blue Devils to say that Winslow is the reason Duke is in the Final Four. Okafor is great, and even when he’s not dominating, he demands so much attention that it frees up his teammates. Tyus Jones is one of the most fearless freshman point guards I’ve ever seen, and he just destroyed Kevin Pangos on Sunday. Even role players like Matt Jones have stepped up.

But Winslow is the piece that’s been missing from Duke teams the past few years. Even as Coach K modernized his recruiting to add more superstars, he hasn’t had anybody with this kind of edge. Austin Rivers was fine and Jabari Parker was fun, but they didn’t bully people into submission. Okafor’s post game is beautiful, but nothing about him ever feels brutal. With Winslow, it’s different.

He overpowers big men for rebounds. His blocks demoralize people on defense. He careens through the lane in transition. The whole thing just looks exhausting for anyone stuck defending him. It’s like teams spend entire games guarding everyone else on the floor, and then look up and say, “We have to deal with THIS?”

Now he’s even hitting jumpers. He shot 40 percent from 3 during the regular season, and he is 7-12 from beyond the arc in the tournament. That jumper could make his NBA future a lot more interesting. And that’s the other part of this conversation.

There are two ways to look at Winslow’s NBA future. You can definitely make the case that he’s a top-three pick. On Monday, our college hoops savant Mark Titus wanted to know why he couldn’t go no. 1.

The question makes sense. Okafor has been considered for the no. 1 pick all year, but Winslow has been better all tournament. He has fewer questions marks than his All-American teammate and just as much as upside. As the NBA places more and more value on defense, Winslow is a guy who can guard anyone on the perimeter. Within a few years in the NBA, he could be one of the best all-around wings in the league. He’s raw as a scorer, but his shooting form is fine — unlike, say, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s — and in addition to dominating people in transition, there’s no reason to think he can’t turn into a dependable 3-point shooter. He is a future Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard. He could definitely be one of the best players on a playoff team.

I think I’m on the other side of the “top pick” debate, though. Part of this selfish. I don’t want to see Winslow shackled with the expectations that come with going that high. He would be more fun as a secondary star than a franchise savior (who can’t totally dribble yet).

No matter how great he’s looked over the past few weeks, the NBA will be a tough adjustment. He will still have an athletic advantage over almost everyone, but it won’t be as dramatic as it’s been the past few weeks. Even if he eventually settles into the Kawhi role, he won’t be overpowering teams by himself. There’s an outside chance that he improves every piece of his offense and keeps his outer-space athleticism — in other words, he turns into Russell Westbrook as a small forward — but predicting a Westbrook trajectory is as ridiculous as calling someone the next Jordan.

The real question is what you want from a top-three pick. Do you play it safe and go with a guy who could definitely be the second- or third-best player on a title team? Or do you gamble and hope for someone who could carry a team one day? Winslow should be awesome in the NBA, but fitting that second criterion is probably a stretch.

His handle is still pretty balky, and his scoring in the half court never looks completely natural. Some of that will get better, but will it ever add up to a player who’s taking over the fourth quarter of playoff games? The best scorers are born, not developed. That’s why I would still take someone like D’Angelo Russell before Winslow. The NBA may value defense now more than ever, but drafting for defense might not be the smartest play. Offense will always be more valuable. You can find a Trevor Ariza or Corey Brewer every single year. Finding James Harden happens once a decade.

All of that is beside the point this week, though. In college, this weekend, this is the dude:

Last week, I wrote that the best thing I can say about Winslow is that every time he steps on the court, I’m worried he’s going to hurt someone. That isn’t true anymore. I’ve despised Duke with all my heart for my entire life. And the best thing I can say about Justise Winslow is that he had me rooting for Duke to make the Final Four this weekend. Watching this is too much fun.

He just turned 19, and we’re seeing him grow into his game in real time. Every month, he’s gotten a little bit better. March was the meanest display yet. Now it’s April, and we’re still going.

As complicated as the NBA question gets, college is simple. Winslow is being unleashed on guys who are half as strong and nowhere near as explosive. How do you stop a grizzly bear?

I have no idea. That’s Michigan State’s problem now.

Everybody else can just watch him eat.

[DickGrayson]

It’s one thing to say overreacting to NCAA tournament games is stupid — I, uh, wrote that last week — but the past few weeks of March Madness provided some of the only games in which we’ve seen Jahlil Okafor play against players his own size. For a guy who was considered the most “NBA-ready” of any star headed to the draft this June, it’s not a great sign that players like Jakob Poeltl and teams like Gonzaga were able to throw Okafor off his game. Monday night’s national title game made him look more ordinary than ever. But again, we don’t want to overreact.

So let’s put on our draft nerd pants and dig into this. Winning in March is supposed to make good players look even better, but Duke’s title run left us with more Okafor questions than ever. In no particular order …

1. Can He Make Free Throws?

Pretty basic place to start. Okafor shot 57 percent from the line in high school, and that dipped to 51 percent as a freshman this year. Five years is plenty of evidence to suggest Okafor will continue to struggle with this. Aside from the occasional outlier like Tim Duncan, this is one skill that doesn’t really change among big men. Compare the Okafor numbers to other NBA big men this season like Boogie Cousins (78 percent) and Anthony Davis (81 percent) and it reveals itself as a real weakness.

Of course, it could be worse. Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan are both shooting about 39 percent from the line, and they’re still very useful. Okafor isn’t in the same category. He’s bad at the line, but not quite awful enough to make “Hack-a-Jah” an NBA reality next year.

2. Can He Play Defense?

The biggest question. This is the difference between Okafor and guys like Drummond and Jordan. Okafor has a tendency to space out on defense. That part is fixable. But he hasn’t shown an ability to protect the rim or anchor a defense, and he’s too slow to guard quicker big men who float out to the perimeter. Those problems might be harder to solve.

The title game was a perfect microcosm of Okafor’s defensive issues. Wisconsin plays the same kind of four-out style that’s taking over the NBA, and it gave Duke problems for the first 30 minutes. Okafor got into foul trouble, and replacing him with a quicker, smaller big man was probably the best thing that could have happened to Duke. As Mark Titus wrote:

Mike Krzyzewski put Amile Jefferson on Kaminsky, and the game was never the same. Kaminsky stuck with what had worked all game: He tried to score on his man, only now he faced solid defense from Jefferson. Wisconsin’s problems snowballed from there, and seemingly everyone on the team tried to go one-on-one because nothing else was working.

Sitting Okafor ultimately helped Duke get back into the game.

He is long (7-foot-6 wingspan), and his awareness on D will get better. But as teams gravitate toward smaller lineups, big men will either have to stay near the basket to protect the rim or be quick enough to venture out and guard pick-and-rolls. Okafor hasn’t shown he can do either one.

3. Can He Dominate Smaller Players?

Definitely. That’s how Okafor spent his freshman year in college. He did it to Michigan State in the semifinals (18 points, 7-of-11 shooting), and he did it to San Diego State two weeks ago (26, 12-of-16). He can put it on the floor to beat people, he can knock down face-up jumpers, and his footwork is already better than most NBA big men. As he grows into his body, his offensive skills around the rim will only become more deadly.


4. Can He Dominate Bigger Players?

He didn’t do it this month. We never got to see him match up with Karl-Anthony Towns, but after watching Okafor struggle to take advantage against Frank Kaminsky, does anyone think it would have gone better versus Towns?

Against Poeltl, Okafor was pushed off the block all night and limited to six points. Against Gonzaga’s front line? He went 4-of-10 from the field for nine points. Against Wisconsin? Ten points and three rebounds.

All of this may sound like nitpicking. After all, this is a 19-year-old kid who just dominated college basketball all year. But given his limitations on defense, his offense has to be so good that defense is an afterthought. In that case, dominating people his size — the kind of guys he’ll face almost every night in the NBA — is more necessity than luxury. Otherwise …

5. Is He Worth Keeping on the Floor?

This is why the dominance question matters. Factor in the free throw struggles, the quickness issues against shooting big men, the rim-protection issues, and the need for post touches to be effective, and you start to ask whether Okafor will be good enough on offense to make it worth it.

Think about the way teams like the Mavericks and Knicks have had to get special pieces to surround Dirk Nowitzki and Carmelo Anthony with exactly the right supporting cast. The Mavericks did it with Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion and won a title. The Knicks tried to replicate the formula by stealing Chandler, but it turns out that J.R. Smith on defense isn’t quite the same as Marion. In either case, it wasn’t easy to find the right mix. It hasn’t been easy for the Kings and Boogie. It probably won’t be easy with Okafor.

Look at what happened when Duke replaced Okafor with Amile Jefferson on Monday. Most NBA teams have already made the same trade-off with post players. They’d rather go with quickness and defense down low and flexibility everywhere else. Drafting Okafor means a team forfeits that opportunity.

6. How Did the Tournament Affect His Draft Stock?

It won’t change things any more than getting shelled in the national championship game hurt Marcus Mariota. People walked away from that game with louder questions about Mariota as the NFL’s no. 1 draft pick, but he’s still got a higher ceiling than almost anyone else in the field, and he might go as high as no. 2. That’s where Okafor is right now.

On the other hand …

7. Would You Rather Have Justise Winslow?

Good god. Winslow made it pretty tempting to say yes here. He tore apart the tournament for the past three weeks. I’ve already compared him to Jimmy Butler, Russell Westbrook, and a grizzly bear. Also, anyone who’s watched the NBA knows that post-up specialists like Okafor are marginalized a little more every year. At the very least, Winslow is going to lock people down on defense and go nuts in transition. As NBA teams go smaller and play faster, both of those skills will become more valuable than ever.

Think about it. Winslow’s tournament happened at the same time Kawhi Leonard turned into a weapon of mass destruction for the Spurs.



Meanwhile, Okafor’s skills are more suited to an NBA that doesn’t exist anymore.

There’s a good chance that the Winslow vs. Okafor question will define the draft the way Okafor vs. Towns was supposed to. Okafor was the obvious choice all year, but after the past few weeks, it’s closer to a toss-up. Who is more valuable between Sane Boogie Cousins or Insane Jimmy Butler? The answer reflects the direction of the NBA just as much as any of the players involved.

8. So … Is Jahlil Okafor Overrated?

Not exactly. Take the title game, for example. That wasn’t proof Okafor will fail in the NBA. It was just a vivid, nationally televised example of all the questions surrounding his game. There is a worst-case scenario in which building an NBA team around Okafor costs more than it could be worth.

The flip side of that argument is that the NBA is cyclical. Right now, everything revolves around the perimeter, but you don’t draft 19-year-olds for what basketball looks like in 2015. In five years, who knows what the league will look like?

If Okafor continues growing into his game and turns into a 25-12 monster every night, all the questions about defense and free throw shooting will seem overblown. The team that drafts him over Winslow won’t be thinking about Cousins over Leonard, it will be looking for Duncan over Leonard. Given the polish, quickness, and size Okafor has at 19 years old, that’s not entirely out of the question.

Okafor is overrated only if you consider him a guaranteed star. And for most of the year, NBA scouts have done just that. That’s where the tournament served as a wake-up call.

He could absolutely turn into a big man that carries an offense for the next 10 or 15 years. He could batter people down low and slow games down. He could become more and more valuable as guys like Drummond, Cousins, Davis, and Rudy Gobert come of age and usher in a new era of big-man dominance.

He could struggle to dominate NBA defenses, the league could continue to migrate out to the perimeter, and all of his weaknesses would only become bigger problems. For now, the only thing that’s certain is that Okafor isn’t the sure thing we heard about all year. He might be a bigger gamble than anyone.

[DowNY]

My mind is made up I want

Super Mario with the 4th pick

I see a star when I watch him it would be a mistake not to draft him to much upside

What is funny about that? Hezonja is easily one of, if not the most athletic guy in this draft, not to mention he is 6'8 and can shoot with good handles. All it comes down to is what is between the ears, that is the difference between Kobe and JR Smith, Phil has degrees in psychology and has been around MJ, Kobe, and JR Smith so he knows the difference. So if he drafts him with our pick then that means he believes that he has the mental makeup to be a star.

I'm laughing because everybody keeps changing who they want every few days. This process is hilarious, yet sad.