Democratic Primary Thread: The Deuce

[GONYK]

I don't think there is a path for Trump without PA, MI, and WI.

There definitely isn't one without FL

Old folks are dying in real numbers in FL. That means two things, neither good for Trump.

Some were Trump voters. And some are pissed that their retirement buddies are taking an early exit.

Plus, Trump's threat to Social Security does not help in Florida.

Plus, Trump's lapdog DeScumbagis has to be one of the least respected governors of all time

Plus, former felons won the right to vote in Florida

I'm very hopeful for the Florida vote now

Then why isn’t Biden up more than +1? You’re our Florida correspondent

He's actually up 6 in FL

[Clyde_Style]

Old folks are dying in real numbers in FL. That means two things, neither good for Trump.

Some were Trump voters. And some are pissed that their retirement buddies are taking an early exit.

Plus, Trump's threat to Social Security does not help in Florida.

Plus, Trump's lapdog DeScumbagis has to be one of the least respected governors of all time

Plus, former felons won the right to vote in Florida

I'm very hopeful for the Florida vote now

Then why isn’t Biden up more than +1? You’re our Florida correspondent

He's actually up 6 in FL

It has ranged from 2 to 8 points for Biden the past month. The aggregate is around 4 at the moment.

FL is definitely in play. Trump probably needs to do something specific to win Florida. Not sure he'll be able to after Biden hammers him in the debates for threatending to end Social Security. I suspect Biden wins Flordia by 2-4%.

I do think the debates will put Trump deeper in the hole or at the very least harden the support Biden already has and discourage swing voters from considering Trump.

The BS Biden dementia stuff will look really silly after the debates because Trump's cognitive decline is in a freefall. He is going to crap the bed big time.

I know the conventional wisdom is debates don't usually win elections, but I think these will be another nail in Trump's coffin.

If Vance, Jr. hands down a criminal indictment in October that will be the final nail in the coffin.

I don't expect an October suprise from the GOP that will do anything. Their incompetency is staggering.

[Stannis]

Smartest thing Biden said throughout his campaign was to ignore the polls. I know we are a different bunch and following it more than the average voter.

But imo, these poll numbers just give people an excuse to stay home. Best thing will be for all these polls to just report dead even races.

[Clyde_Style]

Smartest thing Biden said throughout his campaign was to ignore the polls. I know we are a different bunch and following it more than the average voter.

But imo, these poll numbers just give people an excuse to stay home. Best thing will be for all these polls to just report dead even races.

It is possible though that the big lead results in the stay at homes voters being more on the Trump side of the ledger. They may say what's the point we're losing anyway. For the most part, the anti-Trump vote is going to vote come hell or high water.

[GONYK]

Then why isn’t Biden up more than +1? You’re our Florida correspondent

He's actually up 6 in FL

It has ranged from 2 to 8 points for Biden the past month. The aggregate is around 4 at the moment.

FL is definitely in play. Trump probably needs to do something specific to win Florida. Not sure he'll be able to after Biden hammers him in the debates for threatending to end Social Security. I suspect Biden wins Flordia by 2-4%.

I do think the debates will put Trump deeper in the hole or at the very least harden the support Biden already has and discourage swing voters from considering Trump.

The BS Biden dementia stuff will look really silly after the debates because Trump's cognitive decline is in a freefall. He is going to crap the bed big time.

I know the conventional wisdom is debates don't usually win elections, but I think these will be another nail in Trump's coffin.

If Vance, Jr. hands down a criminal indictment in October that will be the final nail in the coffin.

I don't expect an October suprise from the GOP that will do anything. Their incompetency is staggering.

538 has the aggregate at 6 currently. It will probably tighten with increased polling after the conventions though.

I'm torn on the debates, but ultimately, as long as Biden doesn't have a Rick Perry "Oops" type moment, I don't think they will have a major effect either way.

I don't think an October surprise is coming, but I do think the GOP will act more out of desperation, and who knows what that can lead to.

All in all, I'm just holding my breath and hoping to make it through the next 74ish days with relative stability.

Things like the shooting in Kenosha are absolutely terrible, and only reaffirm what is at stake.

[HarthorneWingo]

He's actually up 6 in FL

It has ranged from 2 to 8 points for Biden the past month. The aggregate is around 4 at the moment.

FL is definitely in play. Trump probably needs to do something specific to win Florida. Not sure he'll be able to after Biden hammers him in the debates for threatending to end Social Security. I suspect Biden wins Flordia by 2-4%.

I do think the debates will put Trump deeper in the hole or at the very least harden the support Biden already has and discourage swing voters from considering Trump.

The BS Biden dementia stuff will look really silly after the debates because Trump's cognitive decline is in a freefall. He is going to crap the bed big time.

I know the conventional wisdom is debates don't usually win elections, but I think these will be another nail in Trump's coffin.

If Vance, Jr. hands down a criminal indictment in October that will be the final nail in the coffin.

I don't expect an October suprise from the GOP that will do anything. Their incompetency is staggering.

538 has the aggregate at 6 currently. It will probably tighten with increased polling after the conventions though.

I'm torn on the debates, but ultimately, as long as Biden doesn't have a Rick Perry "Oops" type moment, I don't think they will have a major effect either way.

I don't think an October surprise is coming, but I do think the GOP will act more out of desperation, and who knows what that can lead to.

All in all, I'm just holding my breath and hoping to make it through the next 74ish days with relative stability.

Things like the shooting in Kenosha are absolutely terrible, and only reaffirm what is at stake.

My bad I quoted the poll in Texas instead of Florida. The most recent poll according to 538 has Biden +4 (Public Policy Voting). The Redfield and Wilton poll has Biden +8. So, let's call it a +6 for Biden at this point. Still, does anyone here trust Florida?

On October 22, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 4.3% on Trump (Real Clear Politics).

On September 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 4% on Trump (538).

On August 21, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 5.2% on Trump (538).

Trump won the state on Election Day by .4%

[Clyde_Style]

It has ranged from 2 to 8 points for Biden the past month. The aggregate is around 4 at the moment.

FL is definitely in play. Trump probably needs to do something specific to win Florida. Not sure he'll be able to after Biden hammers him in the debates for threatending to end Social Security. I suspect Biden wins Flordia by 2-4%.

I do think the debates will put Trump deeper in the hole or at the very least harden the support Biden already has and discourage swing voters from considering Trump.

The BS Biden dementia stuff will look really silly after the debates because Trump's cognitive decline is in a freefall. He is going to crap the bed big time.

I know the conventional wisdom is debates don't usually win elections, but I think these will be another nail in Trump's coffin.

If Vance, Jr. hands down a criminal indictment in October that will be the final nail in the coffin.

I don't expect an October suprise from the GOP that will do anything. Their incompetency is staggering.

538 has the aggregate at 6 currently. It will probably tighten with increased polling after the conventions though.

I'm torn on the debates, but ultimately, as long as Biden doesn't have a Rick Perry "Oops" type moment, I don't think they will have a major effect either way.

I don't think an October surprise is coming, but I do think the GOP will act more out of desperation, and who knows what that can lead to.

All in all, I'm just holding my breath and hoping to make it through the next 74ish days with relative stability.

Things like the shooting in Kenosha are absolutely terrible, and only reaffirm what is at stake.

My bad I quoted the poll in Texas instead of Florida. The most recent poll according to 538 has Biden +4 (Public Policy Voting). The Redfield and Wilton poll has Biden +8. So, let's call it a +6 for Biden at this point. Still, does anyone here trust Florida?

On October 22, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 4.3% on Trump (Real Clear Politics).

On September 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 4% on Trump (538).

On August 21, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 5.2% on Trump (538).

Trump won the state on Election Day by .4%

Never trust Florida. I suspect they stole the governorship and the senate seat in 2018. Same BS where they defeated the polls by razor thin margins. This is a cheating Republican state for sure.

[Oscirus]

The apartheid confrontation is a classic. He has it in him to be a great president.

And that is the upside to being an older president. He's working only on his legacy, not on getting re-elected.

So did Obama

I agree with you.

Obama has a strong element of status quoism in his character that frankly surprised me

He is a great personality and was a positive force to some degree, but he was not nearly as progressive as I had hoped for

I still like and respect Obama, but I'm never going to promote his record as exemplary. I do believe leadership and stability is important and Obama provided that. And he was good at things a president needs to be able to handle. Let's not forget that Ebola could have ravaged the planet if Obama was not the president

but I want more

I hope the version we get is Joe Unchained

Obama spent the only two years he couldve done something working on healthcare and fixing the economy, After that he was stymied by the right and not defended well enough by the left. He built up everything before he left and then got blamed for Clintons loss despite the fact that she was a horrible candidate. Has any other president have to deal with the **** that Obama has including having some jackass come in right behind him and literally try to erase all his progress?

Only thing Barry had going for him was that Biden was a helluva vp, hopefully we'll see if Kamala can do the same for Biden.

[Clyde_Style]

So did Obama

I agree with you.

Obama has a strong element of status quoism in his character that frankly surprised me

He is a great personality and was a positive force to some degree, but he was not nearly as progressive as I had hoped for

I still like and respect Obama, but I'm never going to promote his record as exemplary. I do believe leadership and stability is important and Obama provided that. And he was good at things a president needs to be able to handle. Let's not forget that Ebola could have ravaged the planet if Obama was not the president

but I want more

I hope the version we get is Joe Unchained

Obama spent the only two years he couldve done something working on healthcare and fixing the economy, After that he was stymied by the right and not defended well enough by the left. He built up everything before he left and then got blamed for Clintons loss despite the fact that she was a horrible candidate. Has any other president have to deal with the **** that Obama has including having some jackass come in right behind him and literally try to erase all his progress?

Only thing Barry had going for him was that Biden was a helluva vp, hopefully we'll see if Kamala can do the same for Biden.

Obama's second term would have been the time for him to extend his policies, but that turned in a crap fest with the GOP controlling congress and blocking his efforts. Still, he had an element of caution that surprised me.

I can't even begin to cope with the anti-Obama crap. The honkeys literally think he was a you know what and they resented having a black man in charge. It is just brutal how many bigots there are and Trump's whole mission aside from some token wall BS was to destroy anything that had Obama's imprint on it. It has been a nightmare.

Clinton was not a horrible candidate. She was a flawed candidate with serious personality defects and some status quoism, but would have been very competent and probably quite progressive as a president on a number of issues. Everyone got brainwashed into calling Hillary a monster and I'm sick of the misogyny the right used against her that got adopted by everyone. It's sad and uncalled for.

[GONYK]

538 has the aggregate at 6 currently. It will probably tighten with increased polling after the conventions though.

I'm torn on the debates, but ultimately, as long as Biden doesn't have a Rick Perry "Oops" type moment, I don't think they will have a major effect either way.

I don't think an October surprise is coming, but I do think the GOP will act more out of desperation, and who knows what that can lead to.

All in all, I'm just holding my breath and hoping to make it through the next 74ish days with relative stability.

Things like the shooting in Kenosha are absolutely terrible, and only reaffirm what is at stake.

My bad I quoted the poll in Texas instead of Florida. The most recent poll according to 538 has Biden +4 (Public Policy Voting). The Redfield and Wilton poll has Biden +8. So, let's call it a +6 for Biden at this point. Still, does anyone here trust Florida?

On October 22, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 4.3% on Trump (Real Clear Politics).

On September 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 4% on Trump (538).

On August 21, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 5.2% on Trump (538).

Trump won the state on Election Day by .4%

Never trust Florida. I suspect they stole the governorship and the senate seat in 2018. Same BS where they defeated the polls by razor thin margins. This is a cheating Republican state for sure.

Let's hope Biden's leads hold everywhere else so we don't have to depend on Florida

[Clyde_Style]

My bad I quoted the poll in Texas instead of Florida. The most recent poll according to 538 has Biden +4 (Public Policy Voting). The Redfield and Wilton poll has Biden +8. So, let's call it a +6 for Biden at this point. Still, does anyone here trust Florida?

On October 22, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 4.3% on Trump (Real Clear Politics).

On September 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 4% on Trump (538).

On August 21, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 5.2% on Trump (538).

Trump won the state on Election Day by .4%

Never trust Florida. I suspect they stole the governorship and the senate seat in 2018. Same BS where they defeated the polls by razor thin margins. This is a cheating Republican state for sure.

Let's hope Biden's leads hold everywhere else so we don't have to depend on Florida

That's it basically.

A victory in Florida should be treated as the cherry on top if we can prevent the election fraud that will inevitably occur here

Scott, DeSantis and Rubio are all corrupt scumbags, but they are only the more well known front men for a completely sordid and rotten state political culture populated by thousands of dirty Republicans

I've given myself one year to leave. I hate this fcking place

[Knick4Real]

Okay, okay! Sheesh. I'll do better next time.

I actually think you're right and they should be very very concerned but the poll is junk

I went and checked with 538. We appear to be good in Wisconsin (+10), Michigan (+12), Pennsylvania (+7), Colorado (+13) and a bunch of other states.

However ... Ohio (+1), North Carolina (+3), Minnesota (+2), Georgia (-3), Florida (+4), Arizona (-3), Texas (+1)

Biden is currently projected to hold 268 EC votes. If the 538 poll is correct, Wisconsin would put him over the top. Voters there are apoplectic over the shooting in Kenosha. Combine that with the socially conscious protesters from this summer who are deeply anti-Trump and it's safe to say this election will be nothing like 2016.

[Knick4Real]

He's actually up 6 in FL

It has ranged from 2 to 8 points for Biden the past month. The aggregate is around 4 at the moment.

FL is definitely in play. Trump probably needs to do something specific to win Florida. Not sure he'll be able to after Biden hammers him in the debates for threatending to end Social Security. I suspect Biden wins Flordia by 2-4%.

I do think the debates will put Trump deeper in the hole or at the very least harden the support Biden already has and discourage swing voters from considering Trump.

The BS Biden dementia stuff will look really silly after the debates because Trump's cognitive decline is in a freefall. He is going to crap the bed big time.

I know the conventional wisdom is debates don't usually win elections, but I think these will be another nail in Trump's coffin.

If Vance, Jr. hands down a criminal indictment in October that will be the final nail in the coffin.

I don't expect an October suprise from the GOP that will do anything. Their incompetency is staggering.

538 has the aggregate at 6 currently. It will probably tighten with increased polling after the conventions though.

I'm torn on the debates, but ultimately, as long as Biden doesn't have a Rick Perry "Oops" type moment, I don't think they will have a major effect either way.

I don't think an October surprise is coming, but I do think the GOP will act more out of desperation, and who knows what that can lead to.

All in all, I'm just holding my breath and hoping to make it through the next 74ish days with relative stability.

Things like the shooting in Kenosha are absolutely terrible, and only reaffirm what is at stake.

Women hold the power to control this election. If they want to smash the glass ceiling and make Kamala the first female VP they can win this for Biden-Harris. Also, don't underestimate the motivation of the AKA's. They are going to crawl through glass to get their soror into the White House.

[robillionaire]

It has ranged from 2 to 8 points for Biden the past month. The aggregate is around 4 at the moment.

FL is definitely in play. Trump probably needs to do something specific to win Florida. Not sure he'll be able to after Biden hammers him in the debates for threatending to end Social Security. I suspect Biden wins Flordia by 2-4%.

I do think the debates will put Trump deeper in the hole or at the very least harden the support Biden already has and discourage swing voters from considering Trump.

The BS Biden dementia stuff will look really silly after the debates because Trump's cognitive decline is in a freefall. He is going to crap the bed big time.

I know the conventional wisdom is debates don't usually win elections, but I think these will be another nail in Trump's coffin.

If Vance, Jr. hands down a criminal indictment in October that will be the final nail in the coffin.

I don't expect an October suprise from the GOP that will do anything. Their incompetency is staggering.

538 has the aggregate at 6 currently. It will probably tighten with increased polling after the conventions though.

I'm torn on the debates, but ultimately, as long as Biden doesn't have a Rick Perry "Oops" type moment, I don't think they will have a major effect either way.

I don't think an October surprise is coming, but I do think the GOP will act more out of desperation, and who knows what that can lead to.

All in all, I'm just holding my breath and hoping to make it through the next 74ish days with relative stability.

Things like the shooting in Kenosha are absolutely terrible, and only reaffirm what is at stake.

Women hold the power to control this election. If they want to smash the glass ceiling and make Kamala the first female VP they can win this for Biden-Harris. Also, don't underestimate the motivation of the AKA's. They are going to crawl through glass to get their soror into the White House.

the majority of white women voted for trump, and that was with hillary as the opponent, so smashing a glass ceiling is clearly not as high on their priority list as other things

[Knick4Real]

538 has the aggregate at 6 currently. It will probably tighten with increased polling after the conventions though.

I'm torn on the debates, but ultimately, as long as Biden doesn't have a Rick Perry "Oops" type moment, I don't think they will have a major effect either way.

I don't think an October surprise is coming, but I do think the GOP will act more out of desperation, and who knows what that can lead to.

All in all, I'm just holding my breath and hoping to make it through the next 74ish days with relative stability.

Things like the shooting in Kenosha are absolutely terrible, and only reaffirm what is at stake.

Women hold the power to control this election. If they want to smash the glass ceiling and make Kamala the first female VP they can win this for Biden-Harris. Also, don't underestimate the motivation of the AKA's. They are going to crawl through glass to get their soror into the White House.

the majority of white women voted for trump, and that was with hillary as the opponent, so smashing a glass ceiling is clearly not as high on their priority list as other things

They also loathed Hillary. Suburban women, particularly the "soccer moms" have been trending Biden. It's the reason he's at least competitive in places like Texas.

[Oscirus]

I agree with you.

Obama has a strong element of status quoism in his character that frankly surprised me

He is a great personality and was a positive force to some degree, but he was not nearly as progressive as I had hoped for

I still like and respect Obama, but I'm never going to promote his record as exemplary. I do believe leadership and stability is important and Obama provided that. And he was good at things a president needs to be able to handle. Let's not forget that Ebola could have ravaged the planet if Obama was not the president

but I want more

I hope the version we get is Joe Unchained

Obama spent the only two years he couldve done something working on healthcare and fixing the economy, After that he was stymied by the right and not defended well enough by the left. He built up everything before he left and then got blamed for Clintons loss despite the fact that she was a horrible candidate. Has any other president have to deal with the **** that Obama has including having some jackass come in right behind him and literally try to erase all his progress?

Only thing Barry had going for him was that Biden was a helluva vp, hopefully we'll see if Kamala can do the same for Biden.

Obama's second term would have been the time for him to extend his policies, but that turned in a crap fest with the GOP controlling congress and blocking his efforts. Still, he had an element of caution that surprised me.

I can't even begin to cope with the anti-Obama crap. The honkeys literally think he was a you know what and they resented having a black man in charge. It is just brutal how many bigots there are and Trump's whole mission aside from some token wall BS was to destroy anything that had Obama's imprint on it. It has been a nightmare.

Clinton was not a horrible candidate. She was a flawed candidate with serious personality defects and some status quoism, but would have been very competent and probably quite progressive as a president on a number of issues. Everyone got brainwashed into calling Hillary a monster and I'm sick of the misogyny the right used against her that got adopted by everyone. It's sad and uncalled for.

I can agree with that for clinton I'd also add that her husband became toxic as **** seemingly out of nowhere. I don't know if he was charismatic enough to hide these problems as a candidate but holy ****. Well and Id also argue she made some front-runner mistakes that didn't help either.

[Clyde_Style]

Obama spent the only two years he couldve done something working on healthcare and fixing the economy, After that he was stymied by the right and not defended well enough by the left. He built up everything before he left and then got blamed for Clintons loss despite the fact that she was a horrible candidate. Has any other president have to deal with the **** that Obama has including having some jackass come in right behind him and literally try to erase all his progress?

Only thing Barry had going for him was that Biden was a helluva vp, hopefully we'll see if Kamala can do the same for Biden.

Obama's second term would have been the time for him to extend his policies, but that turned in a crap fest with the GOP controlling congress and blocking his efforts. Still, he had an element of caution that surprised me.

I can't even begin to cope with the anti-Obama crap. The honkeys literally think he was a you know what and they resented having a black man in charge. It is just brutal how many bigots there are and Trump's whole mission aside from some token wall BS was to destroy anything that had Obama's imprint on it. It has been a nightmare.

Clinton was not a horrible candidate. She was a flawed candidate with serious personality defects and some status quoism, but would have been very competent and probably quite progressive as a president on a number of issues. Everyone got brainwashed into calling Hillary a monster and I'm sick of the misogyny the right used against her that got adopted by everyone. It's sad and uncalled for.

I can agree with that for clinton I'd also add that her husband became toxic as **** seemingly out of nowhere. I don't know if he was charismatic enough to hide these problems as a candidate but holy ****. Well and Id also argue she made some front-runner mistakes that didn't help either.

Bill is a bit of a sleaze, but we don't know that he did partake of Epstein's meat market. No one would be surprised if he did though. But as you're saying he had a good reputation for a long time because his presidency marked a fairly prosperous period of time without many of the flashpoints that happened under other administrations. He was competent. And he's charming in ways Hillary is not.

What you're identifying is the wear and tear of the right's attack strategy on Hillary. Bill was used as part of the baggage to drag her down further. They cranked out chit like Clinton Cash and the Uranium One and Benghazi attack memes. Bill eventually lost his sheen because they wore her down and took him with her.

But not everyone is a sucker for this stuff. The Clinton Foundation has done great work despite the attempts to slander that. Hillary was one of the most experienced people to run for president. She'd done it all up to that point. The right hates powerful women and they made Hillary their single point of focus to channel the unfocused and unarticulated rage of an undereducated public.

I feel bad for her. She had the election stolen from her by election fraud and James Comey. And she's a tough bitch and I respect her for handling her business through decades of abuse. Is it any wonder she was probably brittle and maybe a bit of bitch after the abuse she's been subjected to. I'd prefer my president to be a good and kind person at heart, but if their personality is lacking or they are a bit of an ahole behind closed doors doesn't really matter to me if they are mostly on the right side of the issues. So I was fine with Hillary. I hate the way our society was programmed to hate her. It was pretty evil IMO.

[Jalen Bluntson]

Ba-aa-aa-aaa-aa

[Clyde_Style]

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