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OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious

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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#21 » by Starks1994 » Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:45 pm

adrenaLINe wrote:here is the way I look at it

the Chinese...weather it be the Taiwanese or PRC have a claim on the Islands since the 1400s

and im pretty sure China has wanted the Islands back since then... especially after WWII

problem was... in 1830s Britain and 7 other countries (USA, and Japan included) fought wars with China... to continue selling China Opium in return for its treasures...

control/influence over China continued until the late 1930s and early 1940s when Japan pushed the other nations out...

then China fought a civil war... where the losers ran to Taiwan...

my view is yes the land originally belongs to the Chinese... Taiwan probably having a stronger claim...

but tough luck because Japan now controls the land...

might is right may not happen much these days.... but it happened in the past... and thats when the dispute and control over these Islands took place...

however it should be cautioned these days... China claims almost the entire South China sea.... from a historical basis...

and when it comes to a might is right basis... these days I am reading even the USA cannot match China in a conventional arms race...


Thanks for this. You def seem like you know your stuff on this topic
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#22 » by adrenaLINe » Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:41 pm

Starks1994 wrote:
adrenaLINe wrote:here is the way I look at it

the Chinese...weather it be the Taiwanese or PRC have a claim on the Islands since the 1400s

and im pretty sure China has wanted the Islands back since then... especially after WWII

problem was... in 1830s Britain and 7 other countries (USA, and Japan included) fought wars with China... to continue selling China Opium in return for its treasures...

control/influence over China continued until the late 1930s and early 1940s when Japan pushed the other nations out...

then China fought a civil war... where the losers ran to Taiwan...

my view is yes the land originally belongs to the Chinese... Taiwan probably having a stronger claim...

but tough luck because Japan now controls the land...

might is right may not happen much these days.... but it happened in the past... and thats when the dispute and control over these Islands took place...

however it should be cautioned these days... China claims almost the entire South China sea.... from a historical basis...

and when it comes to a might is right basis... these days I am reading even the USA cannot match China in a conventional arms race...


Thanks for this. You def seem like you know your stuff on this topic


thanks im no expert...

but with China slated to become the number 1 economy in the world by 2018

I have spent the last 5 years reading up on anything that has to do with it.... Brazil, Russia, and India
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#23 » by Linguistik » Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:15 am

So China's on their way to becoming a Superpower, so why would they care about some small-ass island?

It's just some fishing territory, they don't have any other places to fish?

And WTF@ going back to 1400 as evidence to claim some stupid island. I mean, are they gonna go rip out the bhuddist manuals and scriptures too? I mean what the hell is wrong with these 2 countries, it's like Isreal, India, Palestine debating over some land from back in the BC days, who cares damn.
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#24 » by adrenaLINe » Thu Sep 20, 2012 1:58 pm

Linguistik wrote:So China's on their way to becoming a Superpower, so why would they care about some small-ass island?

It's just some fishing territory, they don't have any other places to fish?

And WTF@ going back to 1400 as evidence to claim some stupid island. I mean, are they gonna go rip out the bhuddist manuals and scriptures too? I mean what the hell is wrong with these 2 countries, it's like Isreal, India, Palestine debating over some land from back in the BC days, who cares damn.



If you look at the history of these too countries, this goes way back...

Japan being a militaristic society and China now flexing its military muscle...

this current Chinese government only having been in power for 60 years, has fought border wars with Russia, India, Vietnam, and the United Nations/USA in Korea... (they feared the USA was getting too close to the Chinese border)

what this probably is,

is a play for natural resources... China will probably give up ownership of the islands for joint development of the resources in the region...

this is their way of saying woes me... you stole our land... make reparations... or we will go to war with you...

bottom line Japan is getting backed into a corner.... where it is no win situation for it... because its going to have to give up something...
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#25 » by adrenaLINe » Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:09 pm

btw I should add... in most of these wars... China ended up taking land that was not disputed...

but they ended up leaving that land... in some cases leaving even disputed land when they gained control of it...

its a strange tactic

but then in most future negotiations, they have gotten concessions...
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#26 » by Vader » Thu Sep 20, 2012 4:31 pm

Linguistik wrote:So China's on their way to becoming a Superpower, so why would they care about some small-ass island?

It's just some fishing territory, they don't have any other places to fish?

And WTF@ going back to 1400 as evidence to claim some stupid island. I mean, are they gonna go rip out the bhuddist manuals and scriptures too? I mean what the hell is wrong with these 2 countries, it's like Isreal, India, Palestine debating over some land from back in the BC days, who cares damn.


That Island is the only hope (unless they get Taiwan back) that China can get into Pacific Ocean.
That tiny Island controls a huge amount of the sea, the size that is much bigger than whole Japan.

The history of the tiny island:

In 1894, Japan secretly discovered and occupied the island after China had regularily manage the island for 500 years. That should be your WTF moment.

After WWII, Japan should return the Island with Taiwan to China but USA liked tiny island. After numeral secret negotiations with Japan (hiding from China), US army ended up using it as a missile target.

In 1972, US gave the Island to Japan, instead of Taiwan. Another WTF.

2012, Japan feels it is time to take over the Island officially. That could be a good start for WWIII.
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#27 » by adrenaLINe » Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:02 pm

not really a WTF

the USA/western powers had been helping Japan to militarize and industrialize since the 1800s

world war II in the pacific resulted from that help...

then the USA helped Japan to rebuild after WW II

while helping the Pro USA KMT, using its warships to protect KMT forces as they retreated to Taiwan

and pro Tibet Independence movements even to this day through the NED
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#28 » by UpNUnder » Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:54 pm

king billing wrote:
tjumper78 wrote:i dont know all the details about this so i should not side with any one particular country.
however, seeing how japan is involved in similar disputes with other countries as well, most people should be able to tell who is in the wrong.
with their land sinking into ocean and getting polluted with nukes, shouldnt they be "taking over" bigger lands instead of these tiny islands?


Japan has never had a good relationship with Korea or China. The younger generation is pretty naive to this stuff, but the old folks still hold resentment.

China is flexing it's muscles across the world. It teaches its people a lot of propoganda, and they didn't care about the islands until they found natural gases.

My question is why did China wait this long to make a fuss?


China (and Taiwan too) have always claimed these islands were theirs. The recent flair up was because the Japanese government decided to "buy" the islands from a private Japanese "owner". So the right question should be why Japan waited this long to "buy" the islands? They should've done it 40 years ago when the U.S. handed them the control over the property. China was weak as hell at that time. Now there is no way Japan can win this battle unless uncle Sam goes all in with them.
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#29 » by aq_ua » Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:01 am

adrenaLINe wrote:what this probably is,

is a play for natural resources... China will probably give up ownership of the islands for joint development of the resources in the region...
I wish this were true. Given what appears to be a softening Chinese economy, a tricky election period, and so much media attention focused on these islands, I think the government has been backed into a corner where any compromise would be seen as a sign of weakness. I do think you're right there's no win for Japan in this, and it will have long term repercussions for all Asian border and territorial disputes, ie. an expectation that China will get its way through implied threat.

Vader wrote:That Island is the only hope (unless they get Taiwan back) that China can get into Pacific Ocean.
That tiny Island controls a huge amount of the sea, the size that is much bigger than whole Japan.

The history of the tiny island:

In 1894, Japan secretly discovered and occupied the island after China had regularily manage the island for 500 years. That should be your WTF moment.

After WWII, Japan should return the Island with Taiwan to China but USA liked tiny island. After numeral secret negotiations with Japan (hiding from China), US army ended up using it as a missile target.

In 1972, US gave the Island to Japan, instead of Taiwan. Another WTF.

2012, Japan feels it is time to take over the Island officially. That could be a good start for WWIII.
Did you read this in a comic book? Every word is false.

UpNUnder wrote:China (and Taiwan too) have always claimed these islands were theirs. The recent flair up was because the Japanese government decided to "buy" the islands from a private Japanese "owner". So the right question should be why Japan waited this long to "buy" the islands? They should've done it 40 years ago when the U.S. handed them the control over the property. China was weak as hell at that time. Now there is no way Japan can win this battle unless uncle Sam goes all in with them.

There's a couple of key takeaways. The "why now" question can be looked as political (key election year for all countries involved), economics (global recession with diminishing resources), and social (people need a way to vent frustration). I think it's a combination of the 3.

I totally agree Japan chose a horrible time to nationalize the islands. The government was essentially bullied into it by the overzealous and frankly dangerously nationalist governor of Tokyo. That's the sign of a government that's both weak, short-sighted, and pathetic at diplomacy.

The US has always maintained neutrality on the sovereignty of the islands. I think this may just force more involvement in order to get to a peaceful resolution.
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#30 » by Deeeez Knicks » Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:06 am

Linguistik wrote:So China's on their way to becoming a Superpower, so why would they care about some small-ass island?

It's just some fishing territory, they don't have any other places to fish?

And WTF@ going back to 1400 as evidence to claim some stupid island. I mean, are they gonna go rip out the bhuddist manuals and scriptures too? I mean what the hell is wrong with these 2 countries, it's like Isreal, India, Palestine debating over some land from back in the BC days, who cares damn.


its the island from lost
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#31 » by adrenaLINe » Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:18 am

aq_ua wrote:
adrenaLINe wrote:what this probably is,

is a play for natural resources... China will probably give up ownership of the islands for joint development of the resources in the region...
I wish this were true. Given what appears to be a softening Chinese economy, a tricky election period, and so much media attention focused on these islands, I think the government has been backed into a corner where any compromise would be seen as a sign of weakness. I do think you're right there's no win for Japan in this, and it will have long term repercussions for all Asian border and territorial disputes, ie. an expectation that China will get its way through implied threat.

Vader wrote:That Island is the only hope (unless they get Taiwan back) that China can get into Pacific Ocean.
That tiny Island controls a huge amount of the sea, the size that is much bigger than whole Japan.

The history of the tiny island:

In 1894, Japan secretly discovered and occupied the island after China had regularily manage the island for 500 years. That should be your WTF moment.

After WWII, Japan should return the Island with Taiwan to China but USA liked tiny island. After numeral secret negotiations with Japan (hiding from China), US army ended up using it as a missile target.

In 1972, US gave the Island to Japan, instead of Taiwan. Another WTF.

2012, Japan feels it is time to take over the Island officially. That could be a good start for WWIII.
Did you read this in a comic book? Every word is false.

UpNUnder wrote:China (and Taiwan too) have always claimed these islands were theirs. The recent flair up was because the Japanese government decided to "buy" the islands from a private Japanese "owner". So the right question should be why Japan waited this long to "buy" the islands? They should've done it 40 years ago when the U.S. handed them the control over the property. China was weak as hell at that time. Now there is no way Japan can win this battle unless uncle Sam goes all in with them.

There's a couple of key takeaways. The "why now" question can be looked as political (key election year for all countries involved), economics (global recession with diminishing resources), and social (people need a way to vent frustration). I think it's a combination of the 3.

I totally agree Japan chose a horrible time to nationalize the islands. The government was essentially bullied into it by the overzealous and frankly dangerously nationalist governor of Tokyo. That's the sign of a government that's both weak, short-sighted, and pathetic at diplomacy.

The US has always maintained neutrality on the sovereignty of the islands. I think this may just force more involvement in order to get to a peaceful resolution.


the situation will have to allow both China and Japan to save face... if they want to avoid war...

but yes your right... the Chinese people have become very Nationalistic, polling for a war with the Philippines
in that dispute..... I can only imagine how much more they would want to fight the Japanese these days...

it is also my opinion... if China is looking for a quick war... the Spratlys/Paracel Islands

would be the ideal place for it to fight the war...

being sparsely populated... you dont have to worry about guerrilla warfare or collateral damage

China would be able to flex its military muscle...

it has 24 million men who will never find a wife... better them fighting a war for you than rioting in your streets

the slowdown you mentioned... was initiated by the government to slow down inflation and the housing boom

what better way to get the people being Nationalistic already to rally around the government...

they could go after dissidents for being traitors in time of war

and any battle or war would be a quick one...basically forcing parties to the negotiating table... giving China the upper hand...

with China knowing the the UN or USA would not intervene in a territorial dispute less it escalates into a full out nuclear war...

or China could play havoc with US troops in South Korea through their proxy N Korea... or Afghanistan through their proxy Pakistan

or Israel through their proxy Iran....

so I see many of the same factors in the Japan situation...

and most important they know these facts...

Can Anyone Talk to China Anymore? Probably Not
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-j-we ... 52894.html

.
.


This Week at War: An Arms Race America Can’t Win
The United States has no chance in ship-for-ship showdown with China. Luckily, it shouldn't have to have one.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... ?page=full
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#32 » by aq_ua » Fri Sep 21, 2012 5:13 am

I think the problem with that course of action is that it immediately alienates all of China's major trading partners. As much as China wants to believe it's a super power, it's economic growth derives largely from exports to developed nations and is otherwise very much agrarian. Using the stick might win a few quick battles, but it loses you quite a few important friends as well. Especially when wages in China are on the uptick while Thailand, Vietnam, and soon Myanmar will looks like very FDI friendly jurisdictions.
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#33 » by matchman » Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:04 pm

As a Hong Kong people in China, I think it's a difficult situation for me to comment.

Nationalism is the trick that Chinese government has been playing before, when they are in need of shift the focus on its own problem. Their own problem now is the settlement/distribution of power among different interest groups within the communist party. And of course the military forces would take this opportunity to take a more aggressive approach onto diplomatic issues. The chance only happens every other five years so of course they would take their chance. 8-)

These islands are the pain in the neck (cannot think of better description) to PRC (currently mainland China) and ROC (or Taiwan or Formosa) and also Japanese government, but if you ask me US government is playing mind tricks to these three parties since 40 years ago.

I used to be very patriotic when this issue is brought up, but when I studied over and over I found it's just way too complicated for me to be that simple and naive.

This issue has been lingering over and over these 40 years since US government returns Okinawa or Ryukyu Islands back to Japanese government, and accidentally (or purposely) return Diaoyu Islands or Senkaku Islands (the trouble maker) as well.

The first group of people in protest are from ROC and their students in US, and people in formely British Hong Kong (back to PRC since 1997) since according to ROC, Diaoyu Islands are ROC's territory (it's actually closest to Taiwan) but hey when both ROC and Japan are US's allies, there's not much that ROC can do at that moment when they are in such inferiority (including them being expelled by UN and replaced by PRC). And even the current ROC president was a protester by then.

PRC is not that much interested by then as their major focus is to build diplomatic relationship with Japan and US since they are no longer brother of Soviet Union. They chose to keep silence on these islands and of course the infamous "Cultural Revolution" is still burning their own government, party and the people so not much people care these such tiny islands in the ocean.

The dead knot was there on and on and not sorted until recently.....

Governor of Tokyo is attempting to buy from the islands' owners and things start to heat up.

There was a small fishing boat from Hong Kong visiting the tiny islands (whatever you name them, Diaoyu Islands according to Chinese and Senkaku Islands according to Japanese) last month, and they were arrested by Japanese Police/Military so you know who is the real boss over there now.

I can't say much on point of view from Japan but of course for a country made of islands, it's always good to expand their territory. Maybe Aqua can help to explain more here.

About whether there will be a war or even WWIII, I don't really think so. Things may become worse or the protest could become more violent, people in PRC and Japan may go to more Nationalist rather than calm and peaceful, but war? Conflict could be a better word.

And I have to say US government is the mastermind behind all of this. To them PRC, ROC, Japan, Korea (they have their issues with Japan over another island in a less degree), Russia or even a tiny city of Hong Kong are all chesses on their hands for them to get involved to East Asian Politics. I would not want to get any blood shed due to a mind-boggling chess game.
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#34 » by matchman » Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:08 pm

aq_ua wrote:I think the problem with that course of action is that it immediately alienates all of China's major trading partners. As much as China wants to believe it's a super power, it's economic growth derives largely from exports to developed nations and is otherwise very much agrarian. Using the stick might win a few quick battles, but it loses you quite a few important friends as well. Especially when wages in China are on the uptick while Thailand, Vietnam, and soon Myanmar will looks like very FDI friendly jurisdictions.


I would say, CCP only cares as long as they are the only ruling power in the mainland and they can continue to make money out of it, they can care less on the economy if it goes bubble and more bubbles than that of Japan in the 90s. I just smelt "too big to fail but will fail gradually".

And the rudeness of Chinese tourists and investors are also driving the respect away from other countries. So many of us are claiming our country to be "It's so poor that what they only got is money". :wink:
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#35 » by matchman » Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:15 pm

adrenaLINe wrote:btw I should add... in most of these wars... China ended up taking land that was not disputed...

but they ended up leaving that land... in some cases leaving even disputed land when they gained control of it...

its a strange tactic

but then in most future negotiations, they have gotten concessions...


That's not a strange tactic if what CCP wants are not the land they gain. CCP only cares their rule and power over their people.

For most war they fight against their neighbours, besides being invaded, in most of the case they are to reflect their own power struggle rather than to want to obtain the land. The prime example is the war between China and India during the 60s, or the China-Vietnam war during 70s-80s.
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#36 » by Thorn » Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:25 pm

johnnywishbone wrote:
Starks1994 wrote:
tjumper78 wrote:i dont know all the details about this so i should not side with any one particular country.
however, seeing how japan is involved in similar disputes with other countries as well, most people should be able to tell who is in the wrong.
with their land sinking into ocean and getting polluted with nukes, shouldnt they be "taking over" bigger lands instead of these tiny islands?


I don't see how this can be resolved. Both countries make historic claims to an island and when it comes to ancient maps, i doubt any country can really lay claim to such a small island. From what I read when the Japanese Empire was defeated, they needed to give back all of their new territory. Since WW2 the Japanese held onto that island w/o any dispute from China. However, geologist discovered $17.5 trillion worth of natural gas and $20 billion worth of oil under the island. Since that discovery China has been trying to re-claim the island as their own.


Where did you see those numbers posted on the gas and oil? I really don't believe there is 17.5 trillion dollars worth of natural gas. I don't think there is that much natural gas in the United States.

But to the larger picture. I think the days of regional war between Japan and China were left behind in the 20th century. Much more likely this will be litigated in some venue. The Middle East is a different situation because they are still working on leaving the 9th century, never mind the 20th.


I have not seen those numbers anywhere... every credible source points to "unknown amounts".

"There is potential oil and gas," says Pui-Kwan Tse of the US Geological Survey. It's not clear how much is there, or whether it would be economical to drill for it.

However, the East China Sea is rich in oil and gas reserves, many of which have only been discovered in recent decades. China and Japan are both eager to stake a claim: China's energy demand is growing rapidly, and Japan's reserves are limited.


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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#37 » by DRK » Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:28 pm

Ahh Japan. At again to their old tricks. Claiming land that isn't there's, and getting hostile in the process

As a Korean, I've heard this arguement 100's of times. Japan and Korea argueing over land, Japan and China, Japan and USA.... The country of Japan itself is running out of space, and due to it's position on the Tectonic plates, in the future it could become inhabitable... hence Japan is looking to snatch whatever land they can get.
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#38 » by adrenaLINe » Fri Sep 21, 2012 3:51 pm

aq_ua wrote:I think the problem with that course of action is that it immediately alienates all of China's major trading partners. As much as China wants to believe it's a super power, it's economic growth derives largely from exports to developed nations and is otherwise very much agrarian. Using the stick might win a few quick battles, but it loses you quite a few important friends as well. Especially when wages in China are on the uptick while Thailand, Vietnam, and soon Myanmar will looks like very FDI friendly jurisdictions.



that may have been true even a few years ago...

but China is not a export dependent market anymore...

last year their governments domestic revenues was 1.6 trillion dollars..

their government has a 10 year plan, trying to shift out of the low cost labor intensive export markets since 2008

and concentrate on their domestic service based economy

when the USA crashed the world markets.. they put 100 thousand factories out of business and 20 million workers out of work in China...

its not a shock China has never really made money on its export market... as the real money went to the multinationals... which China isnt being friendly too these days anyways...

these days 95% of the Chinese rich make their money selling to the Chinese domestic market...

only 5% make their money in exports

if you listen to politicians... it isnt Chinese dumping cheap goods so much these days... but Chinese not allowing access to their markets...

China is currently the number 1 Luxury market in world

and is expected to be the number 1 importer in the world by 2014

right around the time the Chinese government has stated they expect "not" to have any trade surpluses that year and in following years...

like others have said Chinese government is only concerned about keeping its power...

losing it would mean a bullet too the head...

so they have basically told the USA... a uneven recovery is better than a balanced recession...

in other words your on your own USA...were not helping
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#39 » by adrenaLINe » Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:02 pm

here is an article talking about and asking if they can save the world economy... well really they dont have too they just need to save theirs...


Last month, I was on BBC World News to discuss the eurozone debt crisis and whether Chinese consumers can make a difference in the world economy. My discussion partner Johathon Holslag from the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies argued that Chinese consumption is still far below its production, and people should not be over optimistic about China rescuing the world economy. See the discussion video below:

Yes, official statistics show that consumption is only 34 percent of China’s GDP (compared to 70 percent in the U.S.). While the West’s economy is imbalanced with over-spending, the Chinese economy is imbalanced with under-consumption. However, this dynamic is changing. When I travel in China, I can clearly see the consumption boom in China’s large and small cities. Retail has been growing like a wildfire in recent years.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/01/china- ... r-by-2014/
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Re: OT: China-Japan dispute over island getting serious 

Post#40 » by adrenaLINe » Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:20 pm

aq_ua wrote:. Especially when wages in China are on the uptick while Thailand, Vietnam, and soon Myanmar will looks like very FDI friendly jurisdictions.



Problem with this is China has had a "go out policy" for a long time now... in a effort to cool down their economy they have been trying to keep FDI out... and have their companies FDI in other countries...

goes along the same line... holding onto power...

with Real Estate going through the roof, and inflation high... that makes a angry population...hot money coming in is bad and not good if you want to hold onto power...

so China spent 2 years trying to cool down their construction and Real Estate Markets...



as the Chinese government cultivates relationships with these oversea Chinese
point is its not just about China anymore... its about their economic footprint and soft power around the world these days...

if you look at Thailand, Vietnam, and soon Myanmar

Thailand

about 14% of Thailand's population claim to be of Chinese ethnicity.[3] Extensive intermarriages with the Thais, especially in the past has resulted in many people who claim Chinese ethnicity with Thai ancestry, or mixed.[4] People of Chinese descent are concentrated in the coastal areas of Thailand, principally Bangkok.[5] They are well-represented in all levels of Thai society and play a leading role in business and politics.
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Vietnam

Restrictions were still maintained on Chinese employment in the security sphere (e.g., armed forces). All employment restrictions were removed in 1986. The Chinese were able to expand their economic influence after Vietnam launched an economic liberalization program late in the decade. Reports indicate that the economically advantaged Chinese control up to 50% of local commercial activities in Ho Chi Minh City.

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Myanmar

The Burmese Chinese dominate the Burmese economy although many enterprises today are co-owned by the military. Moreover, the Burmese Chinese have a disproportionately large presence in Burmese higher education, and make up a high percentage of the educated class in Burma.

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