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Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:48 pm
by NoLayupRule
well when has 538 ever been wrong
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:50 pm
by NoLayupRule
HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.
glad I bought that team pass!
I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:59 pm
by reub
NoLayupRule wrote:well when has 538 ever been wrong
Exactly!
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:08 am
by Clyde_Style
NoLayupRule wrote:HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.
glad I bought that team pass!
I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even
Instead of buying a league pass I'll invest the money in dry ice to cool off the planet
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:09 am
by Clyde_Style
QUESTION:
Will Michael Jordan be available in the upcoming draft?
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:23 am
by KnicksGod
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:26 am
by KnicksGod
reub wrote:NoLayupRule wrote:well when has 538 ever been wrong
Exactly!
But Nate didn't really get it wrong. He said that the race was one normal polling error away from going to Trump. He was warning of it repeatedly the night before, saying Trump had about a 1 out of 3 shot, and he even said specifically that the undecided voters in the Midwest made it dangerous for Hillary. And that her support there was really soft.
I'd say more like -- he didn't have to show you that Trump was favored to be right. The polls didn't show that he was ahead, so his model wouldn't of course, but he was pretty clear that the race was closer to uncertain than most thought.
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:41 am
by NoLayupRule
KnicksGod wrote:reub wrote:NoLayupRule wrote:well when has 538 ever been wrong
Exactly!
But Nate didn't really get it wrong. He said that the race was one normal polling error away from going to Trump. He was warning of it repeatedly the night before, saying Trump had about a 1 out of 3 shot, and he even said specifically that the undecided voters in the Midwest made it dangerous for Hillary. And that her support there was really soft.
I'd say more like -- he didn't have to show you that Trump was favored to be right. The polls didn't show that he was ahead, so his model wouldn't of course, but he was pretty clear that the race was closer to uncertain than most thought.
sure
he always warned that if everything fell just right Trump could win with an improbable minority vote
but 538 can only predict what it has data for and sports like politics changes and is subject to external affects
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:42 am
by Clyde_Style
KnicksGod wrote:reub wrote:NoLayupRule wrote:well when has 538 ever been wrong
Exactly!
But Nate didn't really get it wrong. He said that the race was one normal polling error away from going to Trump. He was warning of it repeatedly the night before, saying Trump had about a 1 out of 3 shot, and he even said specifically that the undecided voters in the Midwest made it dangerous for Hillary. And that her support there was really soft.
I'd say more like -- he didn't have to show you that Trump was favored to be right. The polls didn't show that he was ahead, so his model wouldn't of course, but he was pretty clear that the race was closer to uncertain than most thought.
Well, it is kind of hard to statistically predict half of the voting machines in downtown Detroit not working for some reason on election day in an election that swung the whole electoral college by a margin of only 70,000 votes in exactly the states he needed to win, but was statistically completely improbable while she won the popular vote by 3 million. Mueller is now investigating actual voting machine hacks in Wisconsin and Michigan. That's why he crushed Manafort into cooperating as he had the dirt on the election hacking.
Silver would have been right if the election had not been stolen.
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:55 am
by HarthorneWingo
NoLayupRule wrote:HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.
glad I bought that team pass!
I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even
They have team passes now? That's good. At least you didn't buy the League Pass.
What part of the country do you live in?
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:56 am
by HarthorneWingo
Clyde_Style wrote:NoLayupRule wrote:HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.
glad I bought that team pass!
I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even
Instead of buying a league pass I'll invest the money in dry ice to cool off the planet
I'm designing a very large outdoor air conditioner.
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:01 am
by SelbyCobra
K-DOT wrote:Tied for last, technically, but that makes sense
Can I wager my kids' college funds on us losing that coin toss now, or is the prop not on the board yet?
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:07 am
by Clyde_Style
HarthorneWingo wrote:Clyde_Style wrote:NoLayupRule wrote:glad I bought that team pass!
I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even
Instead of buying a league pass I'll invest the money in dry ice to cool off the planet
I'm designing a very large outdoor air conditioner.
I'm going to rock earrings made of icebergs at fashion week and fart an arctic blast on the runway that blows Anna Wintour off her chair
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:17 am
by Adelheid
NoLayupRule wrote:HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.
glad I bought that team pass!
I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even
You are such a masochist.
Oh wait, all Knicks fans are masochists
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:43 am
by HarthorneWingo
Clyde_Style wrote:HarthorneWingo wrote:Clyde_Style wrote:
Instead of buying a league pass I'll invest the money in dry ice to cool off the planet
I'm designing a very large outdoor air conditioner.
I'm going to rock earrings made of icebergs at fashion week and fart an arctic blast on the runway that blows Anna Wintour off her chair
You win!
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:44 am
by Garbagelo
Best news of the year
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:54 am
by WargamesX
I am already ready to draft Cam Reddish.
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:13 am
by RHODEY
awy wrote:reasonable.
i thought there was some chance that fiz could coach these guys to 25 wins but after this preseason, nah, not that fast.
So we were 3-2 in the preseason, based off of that I would think we could expect more wins. I want a stud pick... so whatever we'll see.
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:58 am
by Sark
PorzinGAWD wrote:I am already ready to draft Cam Reddish.
You mean RJ Barrett, right?
Re: FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:10 am
by TheGreenArrow
PorzinGAWD wrote:I am already ready to draft Cam Reddish.