Around the NBA - Training Camp

[JXL]

If any of yall heard Shaq's diss track on Dame Lillard (it was fire), listen to Dame's response (he killed DIesel)

Read on Twitter

[robillionaire]

Here comes the KP fan club. Gonna have to read this sh*t all year. Fun.

Well, for the first half of the year at least

[dakomish23]

Read on Twitter

Its a lot like how rivers used SGA.
Guess teams like running 3 guard lineups with SGA.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201904150GSW.html

Didn’t we used to run Felton Prigioni JR Melo Tyson some in 12-13

[god shammgod]

If any of yall heard Shaq's diss track on Dame Lillard (it was fire), listen to Dame's response (he killed DIesel)

Read on Twitter

that was actually good

[dakomish23]

Here comes the KP fan club. Gonna have to read this sh*t all year. Fun.

Damn right.

Also you brought this to fruition so blame yourself

[robillionaire]

That's all right we'll let yall dig your own graves gassing KP up in the first couple months of the season but the day of reckoning will be here soon enough January looms

[dakomish23]

Salty

[Gravy]

Low-key can't wait to see the Pelicans with all their ex young Lakers players and Zion. I don't think Zion's skills will translate to the NBA as much as people think. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts and what positions he's playing.

[dakomish23]

Facts. Sorry HW

Read on Twitter

[thebuzzardman]

Here comes the KP fan club. Gonna have to read this sh*t all year. Fun.

Damn right.

Also you brought this to fruition so blame yourself

Good point. Maybe I should create a topic to be stickied

[thebuzzardman]

Here comes the KP fan club. Gonna have to read this sh*t all year. Fun.

Well, for the first half of the year at least

Oh snap!

(I meant that as the old fashioned exclamation of a diss and not the sound of one of KP's legs breaking)

[BKlutch]

Is it me or does Harden look more on the heavy side?

Harden looked a lot heavier in all the workout videos we saw over the summer. Bet he takes it all off very quickly.

[BKlutch]

Here is a very important new take on KD.

You all know -- we've read it many times -- that the "statistics" show an 8% dropoff in production when a player returns after a ruptured Achilles. This is an article that calls BS on this -- and with good reason. https://knicksforclicks.com/f/dolan-was-right-the-nets-made-the-largest-wager-in-nba-history

The main point is that this 8% figure was put out there by Kevin Pelton of ESPN, and based on a statistic that he himself developed, called WARP%. This compared how players would do the season after returning from the Achilles injury compared to how they were "projected" to do - based on his own self-made statistc WARP%.

In this article, Jason Fortin examines scoring in the seasons after an achilles injury compared to scoring before. With pretty much the lone exception of Dominique Wilkins, the actual scoring in the years following an Achilles injury is abysmal. There is a dropoff of up to 35% - 45% in scoring the first year. And it gets worse in each following year. The number of players who did better is so small that the odds are against KD returning at anywhere near his former self. And the Nets are projected to have three years of $40M+ salary for KD (and more $M's for DJ) with vastly declining offensive output.

The article is long, but here is the most telling of all the tables. Remember, this table is not a projection - it is what actually happened to players after an Achilles. Fortin makes the point that the Nets are royally screwed. Anybody here sad if that happens?

In summary, Kevin Durant needs to defy serious odds and match the outlier performance of Dominique Wilkins to perform above a 90% threshold in ANY season. If Durant were to exceed this 90% threshold in EACH season of his new contract, he would be the outlier and first of the 35 Achilles Players to do so. The more than likely outcome based on the history of Achilles Players is that the Brooklyn Nets will realize at some point of the Durant contract that, to borrow Zach Lowe’s line, “it is unpleasant to think about.”

[GONYK]

Here is a very important new take on KD.

Spoiler:

You all know -- we've read it many times -- that the "statistics" show an 8% dropoff in production when a player returns after a ruptured Achilles. This is an article that calls BS on this -- and with good reason. https://knicksforclicks.com/f/dolan-was-right-the-nets-made-the-largest-wager-in-nba-history

The main point is that this 8% figure was put out there by Kevin Pelton of ESPN, and based on a statistic that he himself developed, called WARP%. This compared how players would do the season after returning from the Achilles injury compared to how they were "projected" to do - based on his own self-made statistc WARP%.

In this article, Jason Fortin examines scoring in the seasons after an achilles injury compared to scoring before. With pretty much the lone exception of Dominique Wilkins, the actual scoring in the years following an Achilles injury is abysmal. There is a dropoff of up to 35% - 45% in scoring the first year. And it gets worse in each following year. The number of players who did better is so small that the odds are against KD returning at anywhere near his former self. And the Nets are projected to have three years of $40M+ salary for KD (and more $M's for DJ) with vastly declining offensive output.

The article is long, but here is the most telling of all the tables. Remember, this table is not a projection - it is what actually happened to players after an Achilles. Fortin makes the point that the Nets are royally screwed. Anybody here sad if that happens?

I know this is water under the bridge, but I found this analysis on KD's likely production going forward based on past players' achilles injuries fascinating.

The article is long with a ton of stats, but here is the big takeaway:

I examined the production (points per game) for the Achilles Players for the season they tore their Achilles and compared it to the season they returned. If the player tore their Achilles early in the season and did not log in at least 500 minutes that season, I used the season prior as the base season to measure the production impact. I eliminated the Achilles Players from the analysis who scored less than 9.3 points per game for the base season. I set the threshold level at Jonas Jerebko’s scoring average his rookie season when he suffered his Achilles injury. My thought behind the threshold level was an attempt to remove non-rotation players from the analysis. The net result is that the analysis is based on 20 Achilles Players, the same number of players Pelton used for his analysis. Within this group of 20 players, Mario Chalmers, Jonas Jerebko, Maurice Taylor, Gerald Wilkins, and Stanley Roberts took a full season off to rehab, as Durant presumably will do.

The chart below lists the 32 Achilles Players (excludes Durant, John Wall and JJ Barea who tore their Achilles in 2019) and shows the calculation of the first-year production percentage increase/(decrease) of the 20 players. It’s worth noting that only two of the 20 players produced at a level better than the Pelton 8% decline. One player is Dominique Wilkins. The other is Jonas Jerebko, who tore his Achilles at the age of 23 and saw a decline of 6.5% from 9.3 points per game to 8.7 points per game.

As seen in the table below, the average decline in production (points per game) from the base season for the 20 Achilles Players in their first season back was 37.3%, significantly different than Pelton’s average production decline of 8%.

Let’s update Jay Williams quote using my more relevant production decline statistic.

“Can I read you an interesting stat that one of my researchers sent me? Research shows that players coming back from an Achilles injury see their points per game decline 37.3%. Durant was 9th last season averaging 26.0 points per game—Kahwi Leonard territory who averaged 26.6 points per game. A 37.3% decline would drop him to 54th averaging 16.3 points per game. That’s exactly what DeAndre Ayton averaged. He would be ranked just ahead of Eric Gordon, Aaron Gordon, Eric Bledsoe and Rudy Gobert. I think that is somewhat interesting from a research/analytics perspective.”

Kevin Durant signed a 4-year contract with the expectations he will rehab his first season and then play three seasons for the Nets. (Durant does have a player option for the 4th season but let us ignore that for this section). Pelton’s production decline refers solely to the first season returning from an Achilles injury. I calculated the average production declines in the 2nd and 3rd seasons returning from injury for the Achilles Players.

For the 2nd season calculation, I continue to anchor off points per game of the pre-Achilles injury season as a base for measurement. The sample size for this calculation decreased from 20 to 18 as DeMarcus Cousins is entering his second season post-Achilles injury and Mario Chalmers did not return to the NBA for his second season.

The average production decline (points per game) in the second season post-Achilles injury from the base season is 35.9%.

The sample size for the third season decreased from 18 to 12 as Rudy Gay is entering his third season post-Achilles injury and Anderson Varejao, Chauncey Billups, Mehmet Okur, Dan Dickau, and Voshon Lenard did not return to the NBA for a third season following their injuries.

The average production decline (points per game) in the third season post-Achilles injury from the base season pre-Achilles injury is 46.7%.

If you simply apply these average declines (37.9%, 35.9% and 46.7%) to Kevin Durant’s 2018-19 scoring of 26.0 points per game, Durant’s scoring projects to be 16.3 points per game, 16.7 points per game and 13.8 points per game in his three years following injury.

https://knicksforclicks.com/f/dolan-was-right-the-nets-made-the-largest-wager-in-nba-history

[Fat Kat]

If any of yall heard Shaq's diss track on Dame Lillard (it was fire), listen to Dame's response (he killed DIesel)

Read on Twitter

that was actually good

Damn. It was.

[ChaosHamster]

PPG? Seriously? They are using just plain PPG as their main argument/measurement?

And lol, at

Kevin Durant Has Two People to Thank for His New $164 Million Contract: Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Pelton

I don't think anyone who's somewhat reasonable is expecting KD to return the same. But compering him/his situation to some bum list where 90% of the players are role players or even worse, and then list their PPG drop-off, where I'am completely sure majority of those guys had their MPG and Roles (Cousins is the prime example) lowered when they returned from Injury, and thats the really important reason why their production dropped.

KD is not your typical NBA player, or just your regular all-star. Hes top20 NBA player of all-time. Even if the drops off 30%, hes still worth the max, and definitely worth the gamble if there is even a slight chance he returns the same or really close to it.

[GONYK]

PPG? Seriously? They are using just plain PPG as their main argument/measurement?

And lol, at

Kevin Durant Has Two People to Thank for His New $164 Million Contract: Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Pelton

I don't think anyone who's somewhat reasonable is expecting KD to return the same. But compering him/his situation to some bum list where 90% of the players are role players or even worse, and then list their PPG drop-off, where I'am completely sure majority of those guys had their MPG and Roles (Cousins is the prime example) lowered when they returned from Injury, and thats the really important reason why their production dropped.

KD is not your typical NBA player, or just your regular all-star. Hes top20 NBA player of all-time. Even if the drops off 30%, hes still worth the max, and definitely worth the gamble if there is even a slight chance he returns the same or really close to it.

KD being more talented doesn't make the ligaments in his knee special, especially at 32 years old.

[BKlutch]

PPG? Seriously? They are using just plain PPG as their main argument/measurement?

And lol, at

Kevin Durant Has Two People to Thank for His New $164 Million Contract: Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Pelton

I don't think anyone who's somewhat reasonable is expecting KD to return the same. But compering him/his situation to some bum list where 90% of the players are role players or even worse, and then list their PPG drop-off, where I'am completely sure majority of those guys had their MPG and Roles (Cousins is the prime example) lowered when they returned from Injury, and thats the really important reason why their production dropped.

KD is not your typical NBA player, or just your regular all-star. Hes top20 NBA player of all-time. Even if the drops off 30%, hes still worth the max, and definitely worth the gamble if there is even a slight chance he returns the same or really close to it.

So are you saying that KD will justify the $40M+ salary he will get in years 2-4 of his contract so much that the Knicks should wish they would have his likely production? Would we want to pay that much that for 15 -17 ppg?

[ChaosHamster]

PPG? Seriously? They are using just plain PPG as their main argument/measurement?

And lol, at

Kevin Durant Has Two People to Thank for His New $164 Million Contract: Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Pelton

I don't think anyone who's somewhat reasonable is expecting KD to return the same. But compering him/his situation to some bum list where 90% of the players are role players or even worse, and then list their PPG drop-off, where I'am completely sure majority of those guys had their MPG and Roles (Cousins is the prime example) lowered when they returned from Injury, and thats the really important reason why their production dropped.

KD is not your typical NBA player, or just your regular all-star. Hes top20 NBA player of all-time. Even if the drops off 30%, hes still worth the max, and definitely worth the gamble if there is even a slight chance he returns the same or really close to it.

So are you saying that KD will justify the $40M+ salary he will get in years 2-4 of his contract so much that the Knicks should wish they would have his likely production? Would we want to pay that much that for 15 -17 ppg?

Again, its not his likely production. Just because you mix all the players with completely different situations in a same bowl without adding much context and draw some conclusion, doesn't mean anything. The same thing it doesn't mean anything when Pelton came out with his 10% drop-off or whatever it was.

I don't think its even an argument you take a risk and sign KD if he wanted to come. I mean, we wasted 40mil of space on some role-players and next year it gonna be the same, because there is basically no-one worth paying big long-term money. So its already two years when paying KD would've been an no brainer, over some random fringe guys. And again, nothing suggest Knicks are gonna be in the mix for someone in 2021, so why not just take a risk on KD, because if he returns even close to his current self, he is not worth the max, he is worth much more than that and if hes your 16-17ppg guy, yes, hes gonna be overpaid, but again, its not like you could've used that money better than taking a gamble on a top 20 player of all-time.

[BKlutch]

PPG? Seriously? They are using just plain PPG as their main argument/measurement?

And lol, at

I don't think anyone who's somewhat reasonable is expecting KD to return the same. But compering him/his situation to some bum list where 90% of the players are role players or even worse, and then list their PPG drop-off, where I'am completely sure majority of those guys had their MPG and Roles (Cousins is the prime example) lowered when they returned from Injury, and thats the really important reason why their production dropped.

KD is not your typical NBA player, or just your regular all-star. Hes top20 NBA player of all-time. Even if the drops off 30%, hes still worth the max, and definitely worth the gamble if there is even a slight chance he returns the same or really close to it.

So are you saying that KD will justify the $40M+ salary he will get in years 2-4 of his contract so much that the Knicks should wish they would have his likely production? Would we want to pay that much that for 15 -17 ppg?

Again, its not his likely production. Just because you mix all the players with completely different situations in a same bowl without adding much context and draw some conclusion, doesn't mean anything. The same thing it doesn't mean anything when Pelton came out with his 10% drop-off or whatever it was.

I don't think its even an argument you take a risk and sign KD if he wanted to come. I mean, we wasted 40mil of space on some role-players and next year it gonna be the same, because there is basically no-one worth paying big long-term money. So its already two years when paying KD would've been an no brainer, over some random fringe guys. And again, nothing suggest Knicks are gonna be in the mix for someone in 2021, so why not just take a risk on KD, because if he returns even close to his current self, he is not worth the max, he is worth much more than that and if hes your 16-17ppg guy, yes, hes gonna be overpaid, but again, its not like you could've used that money better than taking a gamble on a top 20 player of all-time.

Been there, done that, and it sucked for us.