ElGee wrote:I've been waiting until June to participate for fear of biasing myself with an anchor. Having just read this thread this morning, I'm glad I did because the oscillation reads like a bipolar journal. I've said this before, but if you guys are changing opinions a lot on
anything that drastically in such a small sample, you have an unstable model...which is not a good thing. You don't want to say "HP stock went down today, it SUCKS!" and then say the next day "HP stock went up, put everything into HP stock!"

The first guy I want to discuss is
LaMarcus Aldridge. I wrote about him in the past on my blog as a borderline top-10 player and have said he was the NBA's most underrated in the past. The advanced numbers were saying that. His game is well rounded and he's had good results on both ends of the court. He's just stuck in a situation where no one sees him and his National TV time is zilch. Yet LMA stood out in EV in the 2 years I tracked. He's been a mainstay near the top of the RAPM numbers up until last year. And his synergy figures are even better now -- I believe he was 5th in points per post this year, according to this
http://blogs.trailblazers.com/Default.a ... temid=3821" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; He's a great pick n pop player, can stretch the floor and does really good work in isolation in the post. He's the most well-rounded and versatile he's ever been, and while he normally wouldn't be in this kind of discussion, the season is replete with injuries and thus we are moving down to a broader part of the bell curve where many guys need consideration. I like that he can play both PF and center as well.
FTR, against the top-7 defenses:
Aldridge averaged 21.1 ppg 2.3 apg 52.8% TS and 5.1 FTA/g
(Duncan averaged 16.5 ppg 2.2 apg 52.4% TS and 4.0 FTA/g FWIW)
Which means no decline against good defenses, IMO because what he brings is so well-rounded. LMA"s on/off splits were large this year: +9. And for those who don't want to be bogged down with lineup trickery, the old in/out test (in just 8 games) showed Portland to be a -1.8 SRS team with LMA and -8.0 without him.
I'm deciding between LMA and
Duncan for the 5th spot, giving consideration to 2 other players (
Anthony and
Deron Williams). I don't see how James Harden gives a team more than Deron Williams, since they essentially play the same position and Williams does it better. Fatal broke down Harden's game before the playoffs and detailed exactly how he might struggle in a structured series, which is pretty much what happened. I didn't consider Harden a top-5 player last year and I don't think he had profound growth in his game -- he's a great PnR player, a good shooter, smart and efficient and draws contact, but he's in a system that magnifies his strengths and amplifies his stats.
EDIT: Just checked the rogue 2013 RAPM and Aldridge again in the ~4 range, next to Duncan and Westbrook.