Offseason Thread: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

[JCS]

Genuinely curious, on which FA could the Knicks realistically splash money in 2020 and 2021? If we can get talented young players to add to our core, it could actually raise the ceiling for this team while putting them in a position to compete earlier than expected. It wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Ding ding ding.

Here's the wonderful 2020 FA class : https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2020/#

Who gets our money there? And no, Davis and Kawhi are not coming, those ships have sailed.

Give me injured KD and the immature 23 year old All-Star. Hoped for much more than that, but realistically we're not getting anything better now.

[Richard4444]

We've reached the "Max out DLo and Randle" part of the pre FA process.

DLo\DSJr (the no D&D boys)
RJ\Trier
Knox\Iggy Brazzers
Randle\Mario (assumption he returns)
Mitch\DJ (another assumption)
Assorted extras: Frank, Kadeem, Kornet, 2 spots for (Wilkes or Hinton or Jenkins or Zak Irvin or Peters or VJ King or Ellenson)
45 win team maxed out for 4 years?

We would have a crowded roster and we could easily move some players with picks for stars and vets.

We would use Randle and Russel contracts as means to "reserve value". Because we will loose the cap space in two years (with new contracts for the young kids) and will receive nothing in return.

[drekwins]

I really don't think Randle is getting max money from anyone. The dude just got paid 9 million and all of a sudden he's gonna get 27? He had a pretty good year last year but I still can't imagine anyone giving him over 20 a year.

A 24 year old that averaged 23, 9 and 3.5 as a starter last year. In all previous years, that's a SAFE 25% max. Guys have received a 25% max contract with much less production. I think he's getting the max or very close to it. Still, I don't want that team to be the Knicks.

[drekwins]

Genuinely curious, on which FA could the Knicks realistically splash money in 2020 and 2021? If we can get talented young players to add to our core, it could actually raise the ceiling for this team while putting them in a position to compete earlier than expected. It wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Ding ding ding.

Here's the wonderful 2020 FA class : https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2020/#

Who gets our money there? And no, Davis and Kawhi are not coming, those ships have sailed.

Give me injured KD and the immature 23 year old All-Star. Hoped for much more than that, but realistically we're not getting anything better now.

They can absorb salary. The Knicks would have to get rid of DSJ, Knox and Frank anyways. They'd have to make a trade and absorb the contract. The FA class in underwhelming unless Kawhi, AD, etc. take a 1+1 and opt out after 1 year.

[Deeeez Knicks]

Someone will overpay Randle. I just hope its not us.

[thebuzzardman]

I really don't think Randle is getting max money from anyone. The dude just got paid 9 million and all of a sudden he's gonna get 27? He had a pretty good year last year but I still can't imagine anyone giving him over 20 a year.

I realize it's a guard/wing driven league now - always to a degree but very much now - but isn't the same true of DLo?

I feel like in a sane universe, there's an interim step for both these guys, where, they are good, rising etc, but straight to the max? Hell, even straight to 20 million?

18 million seems more right, though, because the league is over expanded, some dumb team will go 27 million and 20 million or whatever.

And if these guys feel that's a slight, in terms of "it's time we got paid", for DLo especially, maybe a 2 year deal at 18 million, where he's 25 coming out of it, made serious money, and THEN he could be maxed. I mean, sure, from his perspective, if someone wants to throw 27 million for 4 years at him, he takes it. Just seems more appropriate from the team's side that he gets a big bump, but the compromise is a shorter contract so he can max out from 25 to 29 years old.

Randle? A little bit older, so I'd assume that sort of justifies 20 million, but he's only really starting producing at high level as well. Another guy who doesn't feel like "a max"

The trouble is, even paying these guys 18 and 20 million, which feels more sane, removes a max slot anyway. At least it leaves room for other players etc.

Back to the Donny Walsh maxim: "Sometimes a player is nice at one price but not at another"

[Jeff Van Gully]

Next big free agent class for us is probably 2023 with Embiid and Jokic, or 2024 with KAT. 2021 is unrealistic with Giannis, Paul George, and Damian Lillard (latter 2 will be 30 by then).

Thanks for spelling that out, I always forget who is potentially due, when.


Let's keep in mind that cap space isn't only for FA. The amount of space a team is under the cap facilitates other moves, whether being able to conduct lobsided trades (still under the cap post trade) or being able to absorb some star player into a max slot. Or even being close to a max slot, but having a player or two easily shed.

yeah. no long-term salary commitments to the unworthy while we're still on a rebuild timeline.

we have another season of control even after this one for the 2017 draftees. so having cap space allows you to be ready to capitalize on all kinds of opportunities.

not loving 2020 FA class though. so we have another impasse even if we love these guys. their cap holds come into play a la KP in 2021 FA.

[drekwins]

I really don't think Randle is getting max money from anyone. The dude just got paid 9 million and all of a sudden he's gonna get 27? He had a pretty good year last year but I still can't imagine anyone giving him over 20 a year.

I realize it's a guard/wing driven league now - always to a degree but very much now - but isn't the same true of DLo?

I feel like in a sane universe, there's an interim step for both these guys, where, they are good, rising etc, but straight to the max? Hell, even straight to 20 million?

18 million seems more right, though, because the league is over expanded, some dumb team will go 27 million and 20 million or whatever.

And if these guys feel that's a slight, in terms of "it's time we got paid", for DLo especially, maybe a 2 year deal at 18 million, where he's 25 coming out of it, made serious money, and THEN he could be maxed. I mean, sure, from his perspective, if someone wants to throw 27 million for 4 years at him, he takes it. Just seems more appropriate from the team's side that he gets a big bump, but the compromise is a shorter contract so he can max out from 25 to 29 years old.

Randle? A little bit older, so I'd assume that sort of justifies 20 million, but he's only really starting producing at high level as well. Another guy who doesn't feel like "a max"

The trouble is, even paying these guys 18 and 20 million, which feels more sane, removes a max slot anyway. At least it leaves room for other players etc.

Back to the Donny Walsh maxim: "Sometimes a player is nice at one price but not at another"

I think that an issue for DLO is going to be stability. He's going to want a long-term deal and/or no trade clause. Yes, a no trade clause is laughable for him but I would imagine that his agent may bring it up. I would assume that his deal will include a trade kicker. Point is: I don't think a 2 year deal is attractive to him since he has moved around so much. Also, it's not about being slighted. Whether or not 18mill is competitive will be determined by the competition in signing him. With that said, THJ signed for 18 mill. 18 mill is not going to come close to cutting it.

[thebuzzardman]

I see people falling into the trap of:

"THIS IS THE BIG FA YEAR! IF THE KNICKS DON'T SPEND IT NOW, ALL THE FUTURE FA YEARS SUCK"

This is the mentality that led to maxing out Alan Houston with no competition. That had the Knicks decide Eddy Curry was "worth it". Throwing cash as undeserving guys like Eisely, Anderson, Jeffries, Big Snacks. Trading for Bargs because "THE TEAM HAS TO WIN NOW WITH MELO!!!" Trading all the young guys for Melo because the "HE MIGHT SIGN WITH THE NETS!!!". Yes, I know they'd have to have gotten rid of guys to fit him in. Fine, they could have traded them.

I'm not going to rehash the entire, roughly 16 year sordid history of the Knicks feeling they "have to make moves" and perhaps the sorts of people within the fanbase that works for.

F*ck that approach.

Nothing good in FA? Save the money. Keep rolling it over. I could personally give a f*ck if they don't spend it for 5 years.
That's a bit extreme, but I know the extreme alternative hasn't worked for 16 years.
Is there a place where some signings could happen - some iterative steps, but maintain a max slot after? Sure. But those have to be done VERY carefully.

[thebuzzardman]

I really don't think Randle is getting max money from anyone. The dude just got paid 9 million and all of a sudden he's gonna get 27? He had a pretty good year last year but I still can't imagine anyone giving him over 20 a year.

I realize it's a guard/wing driven league now - always to a degree but very much now - but isn't the same true of DLo?

I feel like in a sane universe, there's an interim step for both these guys, where, they are good, rising etc, but straight to the max? Hell, even straight to 20 million?

18 million seems more right, though, because the league is over expanded, some dumb team will go 27 million and 20 million or whatever.

And if these guys feel that's a slight, in terms of "it's time we got paid", for DLo especially, maybe a 2 year deal at 18 million, where he's 25 coming out of it, made serious money, and THEN he could be maxed. I mean, sure, from his perspective, if someone wants to throw 27 million for 4 years at him, he takes it. Just seems more appropriate from the team's side that he gets a big bump, but the compromise is a shorter contract so he can max out from 25 to 29 years old.

Randle? A little bit older, so I'd assume that sort of justifies 20 million, but he's only really starting producing at high level as well. Another guy who doesn't feel like "a max"

The trouble is, even paying these guys 18 and 20 million, which feels more sane, removes a max slot anyway. At least it leaves room for other players etc.

Back to the Donny Walsh maxim: "Sometimes a player is nice at one price but not at another"

I think that an issue for DLO is going to be stability. He's going to want a long-term deal and/or no trade clause. Yes, a no trade clause is laughable for him but I would imagine that his agent may bring it up. I would assume that his deal will include a trade kicker. Point is: I don't think a 2 year deal is attractive to him. Also, it's not about being slighted. Whether or not 18mill is competitive will be determined by the competition in signing him. With that said, THJ signed for 18 mill. 18 mill is not going to come close to cutting it.

I'm completely aware of a players "value" being determined by the competition for him. I'd think the good franchises have metrics that assign value to performance, and then cash value to performance value. Hopefully the Knicks are one of them.

David Lee was a good player at good value when he was making 10 million or less. He was a good player at not good value when he got 12-15 million

[drekwins]

Next big free agent class for us is probably 2023 with Embiid and Jokic, or 2024 with KAT. 2021 is unrealistic with Giannis, Paul George, and Damian Lillard (latter 2 will be 30 by then).

Thanks for spelling that out, I always forget who is potentially due, when.


Let's keep in mind that cap space isn't only for FA. The amount of space a team is under the cap facilitates other moves, whether being able to conduct lobsided trades (still under the cap post trade) or being able to absorb some star player into a max slot. Or even being close to a max slot, but having a player or two easily shed.

yeah. no long-term salary commitments to the unworthy while we're still on a rebuild timeline.

we have another season of control even after this one for the 2017 draftees. so having cap space allows you to be ready to capitalize on all kinds of opportunities.

not loving 2020 FA class though. so we have another impasse even if we love these guys. their cap holds come into play a la KP in 2021 FA.

Cap holds do become an issue eventually. This is one of the main reasons why I only really love Mitch, RJ and Dotson on our roster. They're all either rookie deals or very reasonable. As far as DSJ, Knox and Frank... they're going to be salary cap casualties unless they really show something major. Even so, it'll probably only help to increase their values so we could trade them to another team.

[3toheadmelo]

Last year everybody kept saying Randle was going to get maxed out and look what happened. If the Knicks can get Randle for a steal we should go for it

[god shammgod]

Watch on YouTube

jalen says kd will be a knick and kyrie will likely follow kd

[thebuzzardman]

I also can't believe how easily people forget that cap space represents something other than a spot for FA's to occupy.

How soon people forget.

Don't worry, if the Knicks max out sub max cat guys and later people bitch about how the Knicks couldn't get in on certain trades when stud players became available, I'll be sure to remind you. Often.

[VCBC]

Homegrown homers/rebuilders were too good for Kyrie and AD, no way they want 2 under 24 who'll make 25% cap or less...

[jvsimonetti0514]

I really don't think Randle is getting max money from anyone. The dude just got paid 9 million and all of a sudden he's gonna get 27? He had a pretty good year last year but I still can't imagine anyone giving him over 20 a year.

A 24 year old that averaged 23, 9 and 3.5 as a starter last year. In all previous years, that's a SAFE 25% max. Guys have received a 25% max contract with much less production. I think he's getting the max or very close to it. Still, I don't want that team to be the Knicks.

He did put up good offensive numbers last year but I think it's his measurement and role that will keep him from getting offered the max. He shot a decent percentage from 3 but it was on really 3 attempts per game. Unless he turns into a knockdown shooter on higher volume, he's a small ball C that's not a shot blocker. It's possible that he becomes a better 3 point shooter but Idk how much more growth he really has left in him. We'll see, you could be right about him getting the max but I think unless someone is desperate he won't get it. If I'm Perry, the most I'd do 3 years with the last one as a team option for 60-65 million.

[DOT]

I see people falling into the trap of:

"THIS IS THE BIG FA YEAR! IF THE KNICKS DON'T SPEND IT NOW, ALL THE FUTURE FA YEARS SUCK"

This is the mentality that led to maxing out Alan Houston with no competition. That had the Knicks decide Eddy Curry was "worth it". Throwing cash as undeserving guys like Eisely, Anderson, Jeffries, Big Snacks. Trading for Bargs because "THE TEAM HAS TO WIN NOW WITH MELO!!!" Trading all the young guys for Melo because the "HE MIGHT SIGN WITH THE NETS!!!". Yes, I know they'd have to have gotten rid of guys to fit him in. Fine, they could have traded them.

I'm not going to rehash the entire, roughly 16 year sordid history of the Knicks feeling they "have to make moves" and perhaps the sorts of people within the fanbase that works for.

F*ck that approach.

Nothing good in FA? Save the money. Keep rolling it over. I could personally give a f*ck if they don't spend it for 5 years.
That's a bit extreme, but I know the extreme alternative hasn't worked for 16 years.
Is there a place where some signings could happen - some iterative steps, but maintain a max slot after? Sure. But those have to be done VERY carefully.

Yeah, I see people using this as a reason to overpay for guys like Randle or DLo, or still give KD with one leg 40 mil a year

I guarantee you, if you go back 2 years and look at the consensus of the board, none of us would think we'd be in a position to sign KD and either Kyrie or Kawhi, or really anyone now. But then, this year, we start getting linked to guys and stuff. Obviously it hasn't happened yet and might not happen, but that's no reason to panic spend

That's why we went out and overpaid for THJ, cause we didn't think we'd have a use for that money. I'll admit, I had that mindset too with him, but as we all know, that turned into a mistake

I think it's fair to say DLo is comparable to THJ, not because they're similar talent levels, but because you're essentially overpaying a guy for 1 good year and assuming he's gonna continue to improve cause he's young. While DLo is better than Tim was, we'd also be paying him significantly more, and if he never improves, he's gonna end up another deadweight contract. And just cause right now we don't see anyone we'd spend that money on regardless doesn't mean they won't be there in the future

You never know what's gonna happen, so you should always retain flexibility is my position

[drekwins]

I realize it's a guard/wing driven league now - always to a degree but very much now - but isn't the same true of DLo?

I feel like in a sane universe, there's an interim step for both these guys, where, they are good, rising etc, but straight to the max? Hell, even straight to 20 million?

18 million seems more right, though, because the league is over expanded, some dumb team will go 27 million and 20 million or whatever.

And if these guys feel that's a slight, in terms of "it's time we got paid", for DLo especially, maybe a 2 year deal at 18 million, where he's 25 coming out of it, made serious money, and THEN he could be maxed. I mean, sure, from his perspective, if someone wants to throw 27 million for 4 years at him, he takes it. Just seems more appropriate from the team's side that he gets a big bump, but the compromise is a shorter contract so he can max out from 25 to 29 years old.

Randle? A little bit older, so I'd assume that sort of justifies 20 million, but he's only really starting producing at high level as well. Another guy who doesn't feel like "a max"

The trouble is, even paying these guys 18 and 20 million, which feels more sane, removes a max slot anyway. At least it leaves room for other players etc.

Back to the Donny Walsh maxim: "Sometimes a player is nice at one price but not at another"

I think that an issue for DLO is going to be stability. He's going to want a long-term deal and/or no trade clause. Yes, a no trade clause is laughable for him but I would imagine that his agent may bring it up. I would assume that his deal will include a trade kicker. Point is: I don't think a 2 year deal is attractive to him. Also, it's not about being slighted. Whether or not 18mill is competitive will be determined by the competition in signing him. With that said, THJ signed for 18 mill. 18 mill is not going to come close to cutting it.

I'm completely aware of a players "value" being determined by the competition for him. I'd think the good franchises have metrics that assign value to performance, and then cash value to performance value. Hopefully the Knicks are one of them.

David Lee was a good player at good value when he was making 10 million or less. He was a good player at not good value when he got 12-15 million

Totally agree on the David Lee point. Honestly, that's a great comparison for Randle IMO. It's kind of funny, though, because GS fell into that trap. But, since they had Steph and Klay as young guys, it all worked out. Similarly, the key players to our long-term success (no matter who we sign) would be Mitch, Randle, Dotson, Knox and our future picks. DSJ and Frank are running out of time fast. DLO/Randle are guys who can certainly contribute a good amount but it would be up to the development of our young guys to elevate us.

[dakomish23]

I am very against Randle. Just running the scenario incase management loves him.

Why is Vonleh still under contract for 20-21 in this scenario?

Joakim Noah?

Ugh

[Jeff Van Gully]

Genuinely curious, on which FA could the Knicks realistically splash money in 2020 and 2021? If we can get talented young players to add to our core, it could actually raise the ceiling for this team while putting them in a position to compete earlier than expected. It wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Ding ding ding.

Here's the wonderful 2020 FA class : https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2020/#

Who gets our money there? And no, Davis and Kawhi are not coming, those ships have sailed.

Give me injured KD and the immature 23 year old All-Star. Hoped for much more than that, but realistically we're not getting anything better now.

there could be better 4-year options than DLo if you're creating a win-now window during KD's contract. jimmy butler? kyrie at that point?