NBA Insiders Wonder If Frank Ntilikina Can Be More Than a Lockdown Defender
YARON WEITZMAN
MARCH 15, 2018
NEW YORK — It's been an up-and-down rookie season for Frank Ntilikina. Selected eighth overall by the New York Knicks in last year's draft, the 19-year-old has at times flashed the talent and skills that made him such a tantalizing prospect. He's also looked timid and ordinary, as evidenced by the paltry 5.5 points and 3.1 assists he's averaged per game.
Such is life as an NBA rookie, especially when said rookie is the second-youngest player in the league.
But this is also what makes Ntilikina so difficult to evaluate at this point. Rookie seasons are supposed to provide answers; Ntilikina's has shown promises, but it's also generated myriad questions.
Is his ceiling that of a reserve, starter or All-Star? Is he better suited to play point guard or off the ball? Is his passiveness on the court an innate characteristic that can't be cured or just the result of him being a kid from France who's still trying to find his footing in this country and league?
Those around the NBA who are bullish on Ntilikina believe in him primarily because they feel he can evolve into one of the game's top perimeter defenders. He has all the attributes teams look for in their desperate search for players flexible enough to keep up with today's space-and-pace game. As one league executive put it: "He fits the positionless basketball model that the league is adapting."
Michael Conroy/Associated Press
Ntilikina is listed at 6'5", but he's also grown an inch over the season and has been told by doctors that another inch could be coming. That, combined with his seven-foot wingspan, allows him to lock down both guards and wings. Case in point: He's big enough to switch on screens and quick and long enough to fight over them and bother ball-handlers from behind. It's no coincidence that the Knicks force more turnovers and hold opponents to nearly five fewer points per 100 possessions with Ntilikina on the floor, per NBA.com.
It's on the offensive end of the floor where Ntilikina has struggled most. He never profiled as a shoot-first rim-seeker, but there's a middle ground he's failed to discover, a tendency that a second NBA executive, one who scouted him in France said is part of his DNA. "He's passive," the executive said. "It's who he is."
Ntilikina rarely attacks the basket and too often settles for pull-up jumpers off pick-and-rolls. The 4.3 drives he averages per game, according to NBA.com, is in the same ballpark as sharpshooting gunners like Patty Mills and Joe Harris. Ntilikina could get away with some of these decisions if he were a knockdown shooter, but he's drilled just 31.9 percent of his triples and only 31.0 percent of his mid-range looks, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Yet there are reasons to believe all these problems can be cured.
For one, he's been solid on spot-up three-pointers—32.8 percent, per NBA.com—and, as an Eastern Conference scout said, "his shot's not broken." Bumping his efficiency up to, say, around 37 percent, would morph Ntilikina into a valuable three-and-D guy even if he doesn't improve his off-the-dribble game. Combine that with a basketball IQ and court vision that scouts love and you get a valuable player who could contribute on any team.
Also, he's slowly developing the footwork and comfort to finish in traffic, though that will be helped most by the strength he'll inevitably gain.
Andres Kudacki/Associated Press
But Ntilikina will never reach his ceiling if he doesn't become more aggressive. Three-and-D guys are nice, but that's not what the Knicks had in mind when they picked him over high-scoring guards like Donovan Mitchell and Dennis Smith Jr. Even if Ntilikina winds up settling in as an off-guard, where he's spent the majority of his minutes since the Knicks signed Trey Burke and acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, he'll still need to become more aggressive and learn to attack the rim to truly justify that high draft slot.
Perhaps playing him at the 2 takes the ball out of his hands at times. But that doesn't mean he won't ever be tasked with creating on the bounce, whether in secondary pick-and-rolls or off kick-out passes. Teams like the Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers and Toronto Raptors show the days of backcourts featuring two guards with distinct roles are no more.
And so while so much attention has recently been paid to whether Ntilikina projects more as a point guard or shooting guard, the smart move for the Knicks would be to allow other factors—from the draft to available free agents—to determine his future position.
"I can play with the ball or without the ball," Ntilikina told Bleacher Report recently. "Nowadays you see lots of backcourts with two point guards."
The Knicks would also be wise to loosen the leash they've kept tied around Ntilikina. It's not just that he's played only 20.9 minutes per game—a number that should be closer to 25. The team's main failure has been not helping Ntilikina learn to play without a fear of making mistakes. Watching Nitilikina is often like watching a high school player scared of upsetting the coach and getting yanked. Part of that is his personality, but, with that being the case, the onus falls on the Knicks to push him to overcome that.
"Point guard is a sensitive position; it's easy for a young player to worry about getting other guys involved and pleasing the coach," the first league executives said. "I think that's happened a bit with Frank."
The injection of young point guards into the roster certainly didn't help Ntilikina feel more ease about his position within the team, even if management remains high on his future. As has been previously reported here, the Knicks did turn away multiple trade proposals involving Ntilikina prior to the deadline, according to league sources. But player development is about managing feelings and boosting a player's confidence almost as much as it's about improving skills. With Ntilikina, that was not an area the Knicks emphasized this year.
"It's really hard to develop during the season because you don't have as much time to have practice as you would," Knicks vice president of player development and G League operations Craig Robinson told reporters recently. "The more games you have, the more development you'll see over the summer."
The good news is this means there's a lot of room for improvement—and that the Knicks have a plan to foster that development. Whether that leads to a leap for Ntilikina is anyone's guess. But the Knicks would be wise to devote more of his second year in the NBA to finding out how much of his potential is real.
Yaron Weitzman covers the Knicks and NBA for Bleacher Report.
RIP mags
