Official MMA discussion thread pt 2: UFC 268 in MSG Usman vs Colby 2, Rose vs Zhang 2

[j4remi]

I saw Conor at the Bellator fight. I think this dude is so whacked out right now between not fighting, drinking booze (and who knows what else?) and just, generally, not being good to his body, mind, and soul. He's going to get his ass kicked when he comes back. Just my opinion.

Gallagher is one of McGregor's boys and another SBG standout, so definitely makes sense he made that Dublin show. I haven't seen anything to suggest he's gotten past his recent meltdowns either tbh. I do think he can win his next fight if they manage to line up Frankie Edgar. Frankie's too small and more chinny than people credit him for imo. If it's Conor vs one of Gaethje, Cowboy or Nate...I got him losing unless he comes back better than he was and we both agree he'll probably be worse, not better.

Sidenote: We got UFC 243 coming up. The card looked a lot more even with Holm/Pennington included, but you really can expose how shallow a PPV is when one of the main card fights drops out and everything takes a hit in quality. I'll go over a couple of the fights later this week. Luckily, we don't have to fret about MSG this year. UFC in NYC is stacked enough that a Conor McGregor bus attack couldn't take away the quality.

[HarthorneWingo]

I saw Conor at the Bellator fight. I think this dude is so whacked out right now between not fighting, drinking booze (and who knows what else?) and just, generally, not being good to his body, mind, and soul. He's going to get his ass kicked when he comes back. Just my opinion.

Gallagher is one of McGregor's boys and another SBG standout, so definitely makes sense he made that Dublin show. I haven't seen anything to suggest he's gotten past his recent meltdowns either tbh. I do think he can win his next fight if they manage to line up Frankie Edgar. Frankie's too small and more chinny than people credit him for imo. If it's Conor vs one of Gaethje, Cowboy or Nate...I got him losing unless he comes back better than he was and we both agree he'll probably be worse, not better.

Sidenote: We got UFC 243 coming up. The card looked a lot more even with Holm/Pennington included, but you really can expose how shallow a PPV is when one of the main card fights drops out and everything takes a hit in quality. I'll go over a couple of the fights later this week. Luckily, we don't have to fret about MSG this year. UFC in NYC is stacked enough that a Conor McGregor bus attack couldn't take away the quality.

Usman v. Colby added to 245!

[j4remi]

Usman v. Colby added to 245!

Strictly speculation but I think these dudes went from beefing with the UFC over contracts to signing for a fight off of the realization that the winner is most likely getting the pay day that comes with fighting whoever wins between Nate/Masvidal. The Welterweight logjam is finally getting broken up to let some new names make it into the title conversation. Now hopefully the Cejudo logjams get cleaned up next

[HarthorneWingo]

Usman v. Colby added to 245!

Strictly speculation but I think these dudes went from beefing with the UFC over contracts to signing for a fight off of the realization that the winner is most likely getting the pay day that comes with fighting whoever wins between Nate/Masvidal. The Welterweight logjam is finally getting broken up to let some new names make it into the title conversation. Now hopefully the Cejudo logjams get cleaned up next

Who would you take in the Usman/Colby fight?

[j4remi]

Usman v. Colby added to 245!

Strictly speculation but I think these dudes went from beefing with the UFC over contracts to signing for a fight off of the realization that the winner is most likely getting the pay day that comes with fighting whoever wins between Nate/Masvidal. The Welterweight logjam is finally getting broken up to let some new names make it into the title conversation. Now hopefully the Cejudo logjams get cleaned up next

Who would you take in the Usman/Colby fight?

I rate Usman as better virtually across the board but Colby's few advantages do give him a shot at the upset. Colby's pace and cardio have looked better imo, which means if he can gas Usman then maybe he can win in the championship rounds. Usman hasn't shown any cardio issues to count on that though, so I take Kamaru. TBH, I still kinda look at Wonderboy as the worst style match-up for Usman (Colby too). Masvidal or Nate would be interesting by virtue of both guys working with a lot of wrestlers, but I'd edge Usman in those fights too.

[HarthorneWingo]

Strictly speculation but I think these dudes went from beefing with the UFC over contracts to signing for a fight off of the realization that the winner is most likely getting the pay day that comes with fighting whoever wins between Nate/Masvidal. The Welterweight logjam is finally getting broken up to let some new names make it into the title conversation. Now hopefully the Cejudo logjams get cleaned up next

Who would you take in the Usman/Colby fight?

I rate Usman as better virtually across the board but Colby's few advantages do give him a shot at the upset. Colby's pace and cardio have looked better imo, which means if he can gas Usman then maybe he can win in the championship rounds. Usman hasn't shown any cardio issues to count on that though, so I take Kamaru. TBH, I still kinda look at Wonderboy as the worst style match-up for Usman (Colby too). Masvidal or Nate would be interesting by virtue of both guys working with a lot of wrestlers, but I'd edge Usman in those fights too.

That's my feeling too. My thinking is that Usman's power might be too much for him but then I go back to the Lawler fight where I thought the same thing which is not to say Lawler is on the same level as Usman. But Lawler did NOTHING in that fight.

[j4remi]

That's my feeling too. My thinking is that Usman's power might be too much for him but then I go back to the Lawler fight where I thought the same thing which is not to say Lawler is on the same level as Usman. But Lawler did NOTHING in that fight.

That's exactly what happen to me. I was extremely confident in Usman but the Lawler fight dropped that to a fairly confident instead. I think Usman's better wrestling will allow him to do better moving forward but I thought Lawler could defend Colby better and the combination of volume and takedowns shut Robbie down.

[HarthorneWingo]

That's my feeling too. My thinking is that Usman's power might be too much for him but then I go back to the Lawler fight where I thought the same thing which is not to say Lawler is on the same level as Usman. But Lawler did NOTHING in that fight.

That's exactly what happen to me. I was extremely confident in Usman but the Lawler fight dropped that to a fairly confident instead. I think Usman's better wrestling will allow him to do better moving forward but I thought Lawler could defend Colby better and the combination of volume and takedowns shut Robbie down.

Did your see Luke Thomas’s vid analysis of this fight? Fascinating. Def check it out if you haven’t.

_______________________________

Check this out. Some funny trash talking from Colby.

Watch on YouTube

[HarthorneWingo]

Conor criminally charged with assault on the my good friend, the old man at the bar in Dublin. Good thing it wasn't me sitting on that bar stool. Then again, I probably would've guzzled the shot. lol, but I digress.

My point is Conor isn't fighting anyone anytime soon unless it's in a jail in Dublin. He's going to get jail time. This judge should and hopefully will hammer Conor. They have to be tired of this goon running around acting like a rabid animal. Conor is married with a child; a businessman, a former two time champion and he's acting like such a thug. He desperately needs psych help and counseling.

[NoStatsGuy]

Conor criminally charged with assault on the my good friend, the old man at the bar in Dublin. Good thing it wasn't me sitting on that bar stool. Then again, I probably would've guzzled the shot. lol, but I digress.

My point is Conor isn't fighting anyone anytime soon unless it's in a jail in Dublin. He's going to get jail time. This judge should and hopefully will hammer Conor. They have to be tired of this goon running around acting like a rabid animal. Conor is married with a child; a businessman, a former two time champion and he's acting like such a thug. He desperately needs psych help and counseling.

actually two childs.

ive always give conor passes for everything, because i thought it was an inspiring story and i liked how he nailed the predictions earlier in his career. I was caught up in the Mystic Mac, cant lie.

But you cannot defend this behaviour anymore. he definately needs to feel this one. I dunno if he deserves jail time over a thrown fist but if you sum it all up, he definately needs a wakeup call. I like his skills and i like to see him fight, thats why i hope he will come to his senses.

regarding the power of usman and lawler, im sure you guys know, you can have all the power in the world.. if you get pressured and wrestled like you get by colby its hard to channel this power, because you dont have the angles and space to udolize it.

Colby is all over his opponents from minute 1 to 25. Its hard to predict, i honestly wouldve never thought usman could beat woodly to begin with.

[j4remi]

We got an epic main event and a decent main card for UFC 243 tn fam, the prelims are...not really notable and losing Holm vs Pennington dampens the card a bit, but this still should be pretty good off the strength of the main and co-main.

Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whitaker to unify the Middleweight title is absolute flames. Whitaker is coming off two wars with Romero and then a serious medical issue, so he's more than a year removed from competing. He's an all tool fighter, great wrestling base, kicks at range and solid hands with knockout power to boot. Adesanya went to absolute war with Kelvin Gastelum six months back for an interim title and Whitaker's absence. Izzy is an elite striker through and through, he's all precision and super diverse in his attack coming from a fantastic career in muay thai. His ground game is fairly untested but he's shown a ton of promise there in the Tavares fight and avoiding takedowns vs Brunson. Dude is a clinch killer, uses all 8 weapons on the feet and I wanna shout out his damned question mark kick because it's vicious.

So how do they match-up? Well I feel like if Whitaker fight his perfect fight, then he wins. Against Romero he was able to make adjustments and create confusion by mixing wrestling with kicks and then punishing Romero when he closed distance. The wrestling will be key, we've seen Adesanya's offense thrown off a bit by a firm mix of wrestling and striking in the Vettori fight. Gastelum was able to get inside and use boxing that Whitaker will likely try to replicate and I think their footwork isn't so far off that Whitaker can't find success (but his hands aren't as good). The tools are there to retain the belt. That said, Whitaker isn't the most disciplined fighter. Romero gave him all sorts of hell and he hasn't fought an elite striker since Wonderboy knocked him out (sorry Uriah Hall but nah). That is to say, I'm actually leaning toward Adesanya in this one. Whitaker can be hurt and can be caught, he has openings that a technician like Adesanya will be able to exploit in ways guys like Jacare and Romero couldn't. I think those openings will be enough to take rounds, especially having seen Style Bender tough out a five round war already. I don't think Whitaker will hit Adesanya harder than Gastelum did, so he's gotta win with some takedowns and I'm curious to see if Adesanya can punish from in the clinch and defending the takedown. That oughtta decide this fight, what happens when the distance is closed.

The co-main is Dan Hooker vs Al Iaquinta. Hooker is almost a year removed from having his insides rearranged by Edson Barboza and KO'ed James Vick since to rebound. Al just took a ton of punishment against Cerrone in May. Both dudes are tough as nails and good technical strikers. Al has the boxing, really good hands on the offensive and countering. He's also got really strong wrestling defense though he rarely uses it for offense. Hooker can counter that boxing with a strong Muay Thai game that can take notes from Cowboy's performance and he has a solid ground game too with some subs. Al's fought way tougher competition though and on Hooker's one time stepping up, he got folded in half. I'm leaning toward Hooker on this one but it's a really tough call.

Then you've got Tuivasa vs Spivak. Tuivasa is a big hitter, Spivak has an impressive grappling set...but Spivak is pretty damned hittable and Tuivasa is so huge that I tend to think he'll be able to keep the fight standing. I think Tuivasa catches him.

Dhiego Lima is on the card, he was good on Ultimate Fighter but hasn't put it together in the UFC. His brother Douglas is a MONSTER though at Bellator of course and the potential has flashed. Everything else is prospects that I need to see more of or fighters I haven't really found worth paying attention to yet (probably locals I assume).

[HarthorneWingo]

Conor criminally charged with assault on the my good friend, the old man at the bar in Dublin. Good thing it wasn't me sitting on that bar stool. Then again, I probably would've guzzled the shot. lol, but I digress.

My point is Conor isn't fighting anyone anytime soon unless it's in a jail in Dublin. He's going to get jail time. This judge should and hopefully will hammer Conor. They have to be tired of this goon running around acting like a rabid animal. Conor is married with a child; a businessman, a former two time champion and he's acting like such a thug. He desperately needs psych help and counseling.

actually two childs.

ive always give conor passes for everything, because i thought it was an inspiring story and i liked how he nailed the predictions earlier in his career. I was caught up in the Mystic Mac, cant lie.

But you cannot defend this behaviour anymore. he definately needs to feel this one. I dunno if he deserves jail time over a thrown fist but if you sum it all up, he definately needs a wakeup call. I like his skills and i like to see him fight, thats why i hope he will come to his senses.

regarding the power of usman and lawler, im sure you guys know, you can have all the power in the world.. if you get pressured and wrestled like you get by colby its hard to channel this power, because you dont have the angles and space to udolize it.

Colby is all over his opponents from minute 1 to 25. Its hard to predict, i honestly wouldve never thought usman could beat woodly to begin with.

On Coner, legally it's an open and shut case because of the video, Conor's public apology, his attempts to apologize to the victim. He's not going to contest the charge and will doing the right things before his trial (like making "restitution" to the victim, clean up whatever other legal issues currently exist, and get whatever counseling is required and get to work on being a good father and husband, no. 1, and then showing some respect to the sport that gave him his chance in life ... which he's about to squander. I got this Mike Tyson/Don King feeling about Conor at this point in his life/career.

On Colby, yeah. You're right. I think it's why both j4remi ad I are hesitant to make a hard prediction. I pointed out what happened in the Lawlor fight. Robbie supposedly had excellent wresting defense and we all believed he was the more dominant striker. Having never really watched Colby close before, I was flabbergasted by the shear number of hand jabs he threw. He threw so many and then was so quick to transition to his wresting that Robbie could never get into a rhythm and really never generate any offense. It's an amazing how he uses his cardio, quickness on his feet, and wrestling skills to take control of the rhythm of the fight.

I didn't go back and read my prior posts but yeah Colby's a problem. Maybe if he didn't act like such a jack-off all the time, people would take to him a little more quickly.

[Strick]

StyleBender is so damn good. Still be interesting to see him face juicehead Costa next

[HarthorneWingo]

StyleBender is so damn good. Still be interesting to see him face juicehead Costa next

Yeah, I'm not sure I understand the USADA testing rules. They don't apply in Brazil?

[j4remi]

I didn't buy the PPV, so I'm working off memory instead of running the fight back a few times to talk tactics with friends like we normally do but...Man! Talk about a consummate performance to silence the questions Gastelum provoked. I couldn't tell where my stanning of Adesanya was making me biased; but Izzy looked MASTERFUL in there. Whitaker had to mind the gap and he tried to do that by exploding in and out, similar to Gastelum. To keep Izzy off balance, Whitaker tried to use a diverse mix of entry strikes from jabs to kicks to haymakers to skipping into his strikes. But they were all on a pretty straight line. What Bobby Knuckles was missing were ANGLES. Style-bender could step away and off line, then pivot into counter strikes...predominantly the check hook.

So for the first round while Whitaker looked fairly successful, it felt like Adesanya was just working out time and lining up his power. The crazy thing is Style-bender found the check hook working and just built on it throughout the fight. So he starts with the check hook; then he closes the round with a knockdown by throwing the check hook and following it up with a right hook. Then in the KO sequence, he throws check hook; right hook; left hook. He basically just stacked the hooks because he knew Whitaker was chasing power at the end of every explosion inside. It's not just that simple of course, but that's the main crux of it. At times it looked like Adesanya would use the initial check hook to more or less Frame Whitaker's head for the second counter but I'd need replays of the whole fight to really own that take. Either way, for me it looked like Adesanya was comfortable from start to finish. Whitaker's early success was in throwing more but he landed nothing threatening and when Israel found the timing and counters, he was surgical. This is vintage Anderson Silva stuff. He might start slow, using feints and defense to get his reads before turning up; but once he pegs a weakness he picks at it until it bleeds.

Other than that...Dan Hooker really did go out and replicate Cerrone's success but with a better jab. That jab built into combos and led to dropping Al and battering him. So until we see otherwise, it's official. Al Iaquinta ain't beating anyone with a disciplined jab. I liked the Poirier call out and the Cowboy suggestion for Dan. I hyped him pretty heavy prior to the Barboza beatdown and I think he's got a great set of tools to push guys although I'm not sure he breaks anything past 6 based on what we've seen so far.

Tai Tuivasa showed that you can have great TDD numbers and then put a bad gameplan to work ruining that statistic. Dude just kept having his kicks caught and when he clinched high, he got thrown. It was pretty crazy to see. Tuivasa has a great set of tools but his ringcraft is just far from where he needs it to be. He should be able to pull off a lot of what makes Derrick Lewis successful, but Lewis' ability to conserve energy, time explosions and fight smart when he's on defense sets the two apart. There's more craft to what Lewis does than he'll ever get credit for.

Yorgan De Castro had another highlight KO in a thin HW division. But he's undersized and fought an equally undersized HW. Jury's still out on him besides his KO power.

Lastly, Khalia Taha looks like a real prospect to keep an eye on. He's got great timing, everything hits heavy, he's athletic and the lower end of the UFC has no business in the octagon with him. Now he'll have to see some tougher tests so we can gauge how much of this will translate as the competition gets tougher.

[Jscratch1200]

I didn't buy the PPV, so I'm working off memory instead of running the fight back a few times to talk tactics with friends like we normally do but...Man! Talk about a consummate performance to silence the questions Gastelum provoked. I couldn't tell where my stanning of Adesanya was making me biased; but Izzy looked MASTERFUL in there. Whitaker had to mind the gap and he tried to do that by exploding in and out, similar to Gastelum. To keep Izzy off balance, Whitaker tried to use a diverse mix of entry strikes from jabs to kicks to haymakers to skipping into his strikes. But they were all on a pretty straight line. What Bobby Knuckles was missing were ANGLES. Style-bender could step away and off line, then pivot into counter strikes...predominantly the check hook.

So for the first round while Whitaker looked fairly successful, it felt like Adesanya was just working out time and lining up his power. The crazy thing is Style-bender found the check hook working and just built on it throughout the fight. So he starts with the check hook; then he closes the round with a knockdown by throwing the check hook and following it up with a right hook. Then in the KO sequence, he throws check hook; right hook; left hook. He basically just stacked the hooks because he knew Whitaker was chasing power at the end of every explosion inside. It's not just that simple of course, but that's the main crux of it. At times it looked like Adesanya would use the initial check hook to more or less Frame Whitaker's head for the second counter but I'd need replays of the whole fight to really own that take. Either way, for me it looked like Adesanya was comfortable from start to finish. Whitaker's early success was in throwing more but he landed nothing threatening and when Israel found the timing and counters, he was surgical. This is vintage Anderson Silva stuff. He might start slow, using feints and defense to get his reads before turning up; but once he pegs a weakness he picks at it until it bleeds.

Other than that...Dan Hooker really did go out and replicate Cerrone's success but with a better jab. That jab built into combos and led to dropping Al and battering him. So until we see otherwise, it's official. Al Iaquinta ain't beating anyone with a disciplined jab. I liked the Poirier call out and the Cowboy suggestion for Dan. I hyped him pretty heavy prior to the Barboza beatdown and I think he's got a great set of tools to push guys although I'm not sure he breaks anything past 6 based on what we've seen so far.

Tai Tuivasa showed that you can have great TDD numbers and then put a bad gameplan to work ruining that statistic. Dude just kept having his kicks caught and when he clinched high, he got thrown. It was pretty crazy to see. Tuivasa has a great set of tools but his ringcraft is just far from where he needs it to be. He should be able to pull off a lot of what makes Derrick Lewis successful, but Lewis' ability to conserve energy, time explosions and fight smart when he's on defense sets the two apart. There's more craft to what Lewis does than he'll ever get credit for.

Yorgan De Castro had another highlight KO in a thin HW division. But he's undersized and fought an equally undersized HW. Jury's still out on him besides his KO power.

Lastly, Khalia Taha looks like a real prospect to keep an eye on. He's got great timing, everything hits heavy, he's athletic and the lower end of the UFC has no business in the octagon with him. Now he'll have to see some tougher tests so we can gauge how much of this will translate as the competition gets tougher.

Nice write up as usual. What do you think the odds are that we see a Adesanya vs. Jones fight actually materialize someday?

[j4remi]

Nice write up as usual. What do you think the odds are that we see a Adesanya vs. Jones fight actually materialize someday?

I think they might be off each others' timelines. Jones is kind of out of competition at LHW (compelling comp at least), so he has a lot of good reason to start considering a HW jump. Izzy meanwhile has a division to clean out still. Costa, a rematch with Kelvin, one of the elite grapplers (Romero or Souza) and potentially Cannonier all represent interesting fights for him at MW. Plus I think Adesanya would need some time to stack the weight on needed to deal with the strength gap moving up. In terms of best for their mma development, I think both guys should choose different paths.

BUT

The payday might be too much to avoid. Jones is already lobbying and building the narrative. Adesanya wants to be the Mayweather of MMA (earnings wise) and to surpass McGregor. I could see a late 2020 fight for them if they both move smoothly through their next tests just because the demand will be huge. Is that too soon for Stylebender? I can't say, but I kinda agree with him that 2021 should be where he targets LHW...I just don't think Jones sticks around that long when Miocic or Ngannou is the biggest fight he can get for the forseeable future (not counting Adesanya).

[Jscratch1200]

Nice write up as usual. What do you think the odds are that we see a Adesanya vs. Jones fight actually materialize someday?

I think they might be off each others' timelines. Jones is kind of out of competition at LHW (compelling comp at least), so he has a lot of good reason to start considering a HW jump. Izzy meanwhile has a division to clean out still. Costa, a rematch with Kelvin, one of the elite grapplers (Romero or Souza) and potentially Cannonier all represent interesting fights for him at MW. Plus I think Adesanya would need some time to stack the weight on needed to deal with the strength gap moving up. In terms of best for their mma development, I think both guys should choose different paths.

BUT

The payday might be too much to avoid. Jones is already lobbying and building the narrative. Adesanya wants to be the Mayweather of MMA (earnings wise) and to surpass McGregor. I could see a late 2020 fight for them if they both move smoothly through their next tests just because the demand will be huge. Is that too soon for Stylebender? I can't say, but I kinda agree with him that 2021 should be where he targets LHW...I just don't think Jones sticks around that long when Miocic or Ngannou is the biggest fight he can get for the forseeable future (not counting Adesanya).

Great points. I think it would be interesting to see either of them move up to the next weight class. Both are highly skilled fighters, but I'm not sure how well their bodies carry the extra weight.

I think it might be a even bigger challenge for Jones because a huge reason he has been so successful is his reach. That advantage gap closes quite a bit in the HW division. Plus fighters have been figuring him out lately, not so sure how he holds getting clipped by someone bigger.

[j4remi]

Great points. I think it would be interesting to see either of them move up to the next weight class. Both are highly skilled fighters, but I'm not sure how well their bodies carry the extra weight.

I think it might be a even bigger challenge for Jones because a huge reason he has been so successful is his reach. That advantage gap closes quite a bit in the HW division. Plus fighters have been figuring him out lately, not so sure how he holds getting clipped by someone bigger.

Yeah, I'm really curious about both but Jones has the more dangerous path...partially because LHW is still trying to reload while HW has a fairly sturdy top 8 or so. I'm still not a believer of half the guys in the LHW top 10, Anthony Smith included. You pull Jon Jones out and it's a house of cards with no clear front runner (Walker is the flavor of the hour but super untested). Jones vs Ngannou has passed up Jones vs Rumble as the test I'm most curious to see for Jones.

[HarthorneWingo]

Nice write up as usual. What do you think the odds are that we see a Adesanya vs. Jones fight actually materialize someday?

I think they might be off each others' timelines. Jones is kind of out of competition at LHW (compelling comp at least), so he has a lot of good reason to start considering a HW jump. Izzy meanwhile has a division to clean out still. Costa, a rematch with Kelvin, one of the elite grapplers (Romero or Souza) and potentially Cannonier all represent interesting fights for him at MW. Plus I think Adesanya would need some time to stack the weight on needed to deal with the strength gap moving up. In terms of best for their mma development, I think both guys should choose different paths.

BUT

The payday might be too much to avoid. Jones is already lobbying and building the narrative. Adesanya wants to be the Mayweather of MMA (earnings wise) and to surpass McGregor. I could see a late 2020 fight for them if they both move smoothly through their next tests just because the demand will be huge. Is that too soon for Stylebender? I can't say, but I kinda agree with him that 2021 should be where he targets LHW...I just don't think Jones sticks around that long when Miocic or Ngannou is the biggest fight he can get for the forseeable future (not counting Adesanya).

Great points. I think it would be interesting to see either of them move up to the next weight class. Both are highly skilled fighters, but I'm not sure how well their bodies carry the extra weight.

I think it might be a even bigger challenge for Jones because a huge reason he has been so successful is his reach. That advantage gap closes quite a bit in the HW division. Plus fighters have been figuring him out lately, not so sure how he holds getting clipped by someone bigger.

Is that code language for "stopped doing pinkograms" ... "erectile dysfunction medications"?