Knicks Offseason review on the trade board

[ag3]

The most important thing is that they don't realize how great Porzingis is. Even if Noah or Rose go down, Porzingis could easily fill the points and defend.

Knicks are a 44-50 win team.

[Kampuchea]

"Trade Board"

Was this board formed by choosing the most knowledgeable basketball minds around? Or is it random dudes that decided to post on that forum?

[ibraheim718]

Fivethirtyeight has us at 35 wins
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/


Nylon Calculus has us anywhere from 34.5 to 39
http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/10/11/2016-17-nba-preview-new-york-knicks/

About as reputable and credible at prognosticating the future as it gets right there.

[WesleyExChiFan]

Fivethirtyeight has us at 35 wins
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/


Nylon Calculus has us anywhere from 34.5 to 39
http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/10/11/2016-17-nba-preview-new-york-knicks/

About as reputable and credible at prognosticating the future as it gets right there.

in their defense, they can't ignore injury history. Jennings, Rose, Noah and Melo all have injuries to account for. This Knicks team has a lot of variance in it. It could break either way. 3pt defense and rebounding are issues to be addressed. A good year from Rose is the key to unlocking this teams potential. That in and of itself carries a lot of risk. Personally, I'm optimistic.

[AmazingJason]

Fivethirtyeight has us at 35 wins
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/


Nylon Calculus has us anywhere from 34.5 to 39
http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/10/11/2016-17-nba-preview-new-york-knicks/

About as reputable and credible at prognosticating the future as it gets right there.

in their defense, they can't ignore injury history. Jennings, Rose, Noah and Melo all have injuries to account for. This Knicks team has a lot of variance in it. It could break either way. 3pt defense and rebounding are issues to be addressed. A good year from Rose is the key to unlocking this teams potential. That in and of itself carries a lot of risk. Personally, I'm optimistic.

Fivethirtyeight also predicted that Trump wouldn't get the Republican nomination from the moment he decided to run up all the way up until he actually got it

[Sark]

About as reputable and credible at prognosticating the future as it gets right there.

in their defense, they can't ignore injury history. Jennings, Rose, Noah and Melo all have injuries to account for. This Knicks team has a lot of variance in it. It could break either way. 3pt defense and rebounding are issues to be addressed. A good year from Rose is the key to unlocking this teams potential. That in and of itself carries a lot of risk. Personally, I'm optimistic.

Fivethirtyeight also predicted that Trump wouldn't get the Republican nomination from the moment he decided to run up all the way up until he actually got it

They get it right more often than they get it wrong. Nobody of course is perfect, but they are usually pretty accurate.

Here's actually the link for what CARMELO got right and wrong from last season:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-nba-projections-got-right-and-wrong-last-season/

[WesleyExChiFan]

About as reputable and credible at prognosticating the future as it gets right there.

in their defense, they can't ignore injury history. Jennings, Rose, Noah and Melo all have injuries to account for. This Knicks team has a lot of variance in it. It could break either way. 3pt defense and rebounding are issues to be addressed. A good year from Rose is the key to unlocking this teams potential. That in and of itself carries a lot of risk. Personally, I'm optimistic.

Fivethirtyeight also predicted that Trump wouldn't get the Republican nomination from the moment he decided to run up all the way up until he actually got it

True. Trump caught lightning in a bottle though. The rural parts of the country have fallen on hard times and he mixed addressing their frustrations with racial biases which are usually taboo in a political campaign. Model based forecasting did a poor job accounting for that.

[Capn'O]

in their defense, they can't ignore injury history. Jennings, Rose, Noah and Melo all have injuries to account for. This Knicks team has a lot of variance in it. It could break either way. 3pt defense and rebounding are issues to be addressed. A good year from Rose is the key to unlocking this teams potential. That in and of itself carries a lot of risk. Personally, I'm optimistic.

Fivethirtyeight also predicted that Trump wouldn't get the Republican nomination from the moment he decided to run up all the way up until he actually got it

They get it right more often than they get it wrong. Nobody of course is perfect, but they are usually pretty accurate.

Here's actually the link for what CARMELO got right and wrong from last season:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-nba-projections-got-right-and-wrong-last-season/

I am fine with what they do. Their predictions are like SCONE's. Completely quantitative, though if I understand correctly, theirs are based on Wins Above (a) Replacement player (WAR) instead of Real Plus Minus (RPM). If you yelled at one of their gals and said "you don't watch games!" the gal might say "well, I do but that has nothing to do with our predictions."

So, for a guy like Joakim Noah (or Rose or Jennings) they just look at a guy's WAR scores. All three of those guys have seen major drop offs from their prime years and aren't guaranteed to play major minutes based on past performance. Their numbers don't have insight into Noah's rehab or his current mobility. They're not looking at preseason tape of Willy Hernangomez or Kyle O'Quinn.

More often than not, they're gonna be right. If you're looking at a good way to beat Vegas odds, use not one but a few of their predictions against Vegas' which are more based on popular opinion. A hard look at past performance is usually a good indicator but they get things wrong for qualitative reasons and they'd be the first people to tell you that.

[Kampuchea]

There's plenty of logic to the mediocre reviews, just saying no need to pay much much attention or take it serious since its just off season fodder.

[Jalen Bluntson]

No way this team is less than 48-55 win range. Health will take out any team. Do we have some concerns? Sure. I won't knock someone for mentioning that. From a talent and coaching level we are massively improved from last season. Making it gel and staying healthy are deciding factors for every team. If we manage to pull it off we can go far in the playoffs.

Anyone thinking this is less than a 40 win team is still.

[Sark]

Fivethirtyeight also predicted that Trump wouldn't get the Republican nomination from the moment he decided to run up all the way up until he actually got it

They get it right more often than they get it wrong. Nobody of course is perfect, but they are usually pretty accurate.

Here's actually the link for what CARMELO got right and wrong from last season:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-nba-projections-got-right-and-wrong-last-season/

I am fine with what they do. Their predictions are like SCONE's. Completely quantitative, though if I understand correctly, theirs are based on Wins Above (a) Replacement player (WAR) instead of Real Plus Minus (RPM). If you yelled at one of their gals and said "you don't watch games!" the gal might say "well, I do but that has nothing to do with our predictions."

So, for a guy like Joakim Noah (or Rose or Jennings) they just look at a guy's WAR scores. All three of those guys have seen major drop offs from their prime years and aren't guaranteed to play major minutes based on past performance. Their numbers don't have insight into Noah's rehab or his current mobility. They're not looking at preseason tape of Willy Hernangomez or Kyle O'Quinn.

More often than not, they're gonna be right. If you're looking at a good way to beat Vegas odds, use not one but a few of their predictions against Vegas' which are more based on popular opinion. A hard look at past performance is usually a good indicator but they get things wrong for qualitative reasons and they'd be the first people to tell you that.

They run 50,000 simulations of the season, and come up with average. For guys like Kuz or WHG, they use other historical similar players, and compare how they performed at that juncture of their career. I mean there's a chance that all the stars align for us, where Rose is back to MVP form, Noah doesn't get hurt, Kuz plays at Kucoc level, WHG plays at ROY level, etc, etc. And I'm sure in one of those 50,000 simulations all that happened. However the chances are small, and there is a better chance we end up under 40 wins, just like every prognostication has us. I mean you can keep your hopes up. It's a free country. Just don't go do something stupid, like hurting small animals, if it doesn't happen.

[thebuzzardman]

Fivethirtyeight has us at 35 wins
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/


Nylon Calculus has us anywhere from 34.5 to 39
http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/10/11/2016-17-nba-preview-new-york-knicks/

About as reputable and credible at prognosticating the future as it gets right there.

Since these are more about gambling, wouldn't the win totals being trying to factor in/hedge on the likelihood of injuries to Rose/Noah, then what the record would be if all 5 stayed relatively healthy?

Rose/Clee/Melo/KP/Noah - just on talent, it's hard not to think that is around a 45 win team. The bench I think is NBA adequate, for all the hyping we do. But that's a good thing, the bench isn't a crap show like on a lot of Knick teams.

I think Vegas comes up with the totals factoring in injuries, not talent.

I think everyone here predicts wins based on best cased scenario. I prefer to hope for that, and around 45 wins, then the alternative, which is probably 30.

[Jeff Van Gully]

They get it right more often than they get it wrong. Nobody of course is perfect, but they are usually pretty accurate.

Here's actually the link for what CARMELO got right and wrong from last season:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-nba-projections-got-right-and-wrong-last-season/

I am fine with what they do. Their predictions are like SCONE's. Completely quantitative, though if I understand correctly, theirs are based on Wins Above (a) Replacement player (WAR) instead of Real Plus Minus (RPM). If you yelled at one of their gals and said "you don't watch games!" the gal might say "well, I do but that has nothing to do with our predictions."

So, for a guy like Joakim Noah (or Rose or Jennings) they just look at a guy's WAR scores. All three of those guys have seen major drop offs from their prime years and aren't guaranteed to play major minutes based on past performance. Their numbers don't have insight into Noah's rehab or his current mobility. They're not looking at preseason tape of Willy Hernangomez or Kyle O'Quinn.

More often than not, they're gonna be right. If you're looking at a good way to beat Vegas odds, use not one but a few of their predictions against Vegas' which are more based on popular opinion. A hard look at past performance is usually a good indicator but they get things wrong for qualitative reasons and they'd be the first people to tell you that.

They run 50,000 simulations of the season, and come up with average. For guys like Kuz or WHG, they use other historical similar players, and compare how they performed at that juncture of their career. I mean there's a chance that all the stars align for us, where Rose is back to MVP form, Noah doesn't get hurt, Kuz plays at Kucoc level, WHG plays at ROY level, etc, etc. And I'm sure in one of those 50,000 simulations all that happened. However the chances are small, and there is a better chance we end up under 40 wins, just like every prognostication has us. I mean you can keep your hopes up. It's a free country. Just don't go do something stupid, like hurting small animals, if it doesn't happen.

what will you do if it all breaks right?

[Capn'O]

They get it right more often than they get it wrong. Nobody of course is perfect, but they are usually pretty accurate.

Here's actually the link for what CARMELO got right and wrong from last season:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-nba-projections-got-right-and-wrong-last-season/

I am fine with what they do. Their predictions are like SCONE's. Completely quantitative, though if I understand correctly, theirs are based on Wins Above (a) Replacement player (WAR) instead of Real Plus Minus (RPM). If you yelled at one of their gals and said "you don't watch games!" the gal might say "well, I do but that has nothing to do with our predictions."

So, for a guy like Joakim Noah (or Rose or Jennings) they just look at a guy's WAR scores. All three of those guys have seen major drop offs from their prime years and aren't guaranteed to play major minutes based on past performance. Their numbers don't have insight into Noah's rehab or his current mobility. They're not looking at preseason tape of Willy Hernangomez or Kyle O'Quinn.

More often than not, they're gonna be right. If you're looking at a good way to beat Vegas odds, use not one but a few of their predictions against Vegas' which are more based on popular opinion. A hard look at past performance is usually a good indicator but they get things wrong for qualitative reasons and they'd be the first people to tell you that.

They run 50,000 simulations of the season, and come up with average. For guys like Kuz or WHG, they use other historical similar players, and compare how they performed at that juncture of their career. I mean there's a chance that all the stars align for us, where Rose is back to MVP form, Noah doesn't get hurt, Kuz plays at Kucoc level, WHG plays at ROY level, etc, etc. And I'm sure in one of those 50,000 simulations all that happened. However the chances are small, and there is a better chance we end up under 40 wins, just like every prognostication has us. I mean you can keep your hopes up. It's a free country. Just don't go do something stupid, like hurting small animals, if it doesn't happen.

What you wrote are conditions for an ECF/contender situation. Not beating the average. It's frankly ridiculous to suggest that Rose would have to have an MVP caliber season for the Knicks to break 40 wins. They have enough talent in other places.

What I'm telling you is that there's additional qualitative data to look that these ratings don't consider. Use your eyes. Right now, Porzingis, Noah, Jennings, Kuz, Willy, Baker, and KOQ... maybe Holiday... all look to be on the optimistic side of 538's predictions for them. Hornecek seems to have the offense working, if not yet the defense. We haven't seen anything to say anything about Rose. Now, it's certainly possible that Noah gets hurt and things go wrong that reverse it. But we do have some idea of where individual players' conditioning/mobility/skills currently stand in a way that the rankings cannot address.

That group isn't goink to challenge for the title but if those named players continue to perform at the upper end of their statistical prognostications, it's not unreasonable to say the team will perform above the average scenario. That's how averages work.

[dakomish23]

scout speaking to SI:

"If they stay healthy, they could win 48 or 50 games. That’s a big if. Carmelo Anthony has had knee issues. Joakim Noah has had injuries in the last couple of years. And with Derrick Rose, there’s always the possibility he’ll go down too. . . . Everyone talks about Noah and Rose, but Courtney Lee was a big pickup. He’s a lockdown defender and a better three-point shooter than people think. . . . [New coach] Jeff Hornacek was a good choice. New York isn’t an easy place to go. You’re strapped with what Phil Jackson wants to do. But Hornacek is his own person. He’ll play some triangle, but he’ll also do other things—spreading the floor, pick-and-roll, trying to create more possessions. It’s hard to win when you have only 80 or 90 possessions. The triangle is just too methodical . . . Kristaps Porzingis will eventually be one of the best players in the league. He can stretch the defense on pick-and-pops, which is hard to guard when you have a guy that’s 7' 3" and can shoot like he can shoot. . . . Rose is still as quick as John Wall, he can make everyone around him better and he’s not a bad perimeter shooter, but he needs to change the way he plays. He tries to challenge bigs, and as a result he gets knocked down and hurt. He needs to play a little smarter . . . Melo can flat-out score. He’ll take bad shots sometimes, but he can defend when he wants to, and he can rebound. He’s got help now. His priority should be winning—not scoring titles. . . . You might be able to squeeze out a decent eight-man rotation, but if guys get injured and others have to step up, then they really start to drop off."

[iLLSonChandla]