2020 Presidential Election (All Serious POVs Welcome)

[Stannis]

I'm thinking this is what Trump will go for... He can afford to lose Pennsylvania and Michigan. He needs Wisconsin and he has an opportunity to flip Minnesota. He will also need one of New Hampshire or Nevada to tip the scale:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/3XjZ6

As for Biden...

I still think Biden shouldn't get cocky about Pennsylvania or Michigan like Hillary did. But I think he can win them. As it gets closer, he will have to decide which states are already lost so he doesn't spread himself to thin and miss campaign time in more key states. I think AZ should be likely Biden. But I think dems and Biden should save Texas, Georgia, Ohio for another time.

I think Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida are the real swing states. Winning Florida will be nice and will effectively take Trump out of the race. But I'm not sure how realistic that is.

Biden will need one of Wisconsin or Minnesota to win, and one of New Hampshire or Nevada.

I think Wisconsin and New Hampshire is the safer bet:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/7w3py

I need to do more research on North Carolina though. But if Biden can manage to win that, he could afford to lose Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/o4Qj9

I do fell North Carolina is going under the radar.

Why do you think New Hampshire and Nevada are in play? This is the first that I’m hearing of this. You’re right Florida is the key to this whole thing. If Biden wins Florida and Pennsylvania, then Trump has to defend Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona. And this is with me giving back Minnesota.

Frankly Biden needs to double down in Florida with the message that Trump will take away social security and healthcare. Simple straight forward message (that happens to be true). I’d feel confident about his chances with states that have Democratic Governors. The discussion needs to focus on the economy, covid, healthcare

Those were really close elections in 2016.

Just makes too much sense for the Trump administration to go in on those states since he has to run a more strategic campaign.

New Hampshire is mostly white with decent amount rural areas. Don't be fooled. There such a thing as shy Trump voters. Rain or shine, covid or no covid, they will all vote in person.

[Clyde_Style]

his birth parents aren't together.

Do you consider it likely Jacob Blake's father doesn't know if his son's mother has a regular pastor?

Perhaps he doesn't, but excuse me if I'll defer to a family member's comment until there is further clarification.

Trump's WH lies about anything and everything, so what a WH spokesperson says is not a fact.

I think we all should wait for the facts. I don't want to assume anything. It should be relatively easy to fact check James E. Ward Jr. accompanied Julia Jackson on CNN with Don Lemon. They said they have spoken to him several times. But like you said probably just best to wait before we make any assumptions.

Fair enough

[Stannis]

I really hope we don't rely on mail-in-ballots. I'm voting in person for sure

[Stannis]

Emerson College has Trump +2 on Approval rating, and 51% Biden/49% Trump

[Clyde_Style]

I really hope we don't rely on mail-in-ballots. I'm voting in person for sure

I sure am

Will go the week before Nov. 3.

FL has ten days of early voting with voting machines so it is a regular voting transaction. I'm not doing mail just in case

[Phish Tank]

Emerson College has Trump +2 on Approval rating, and 51% Biden/49% Trump

sounds about right.

[Clyde_Style]

So Trump did have a major health problem last Fall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/books/review/donald-trump-v-the-united-states-michael-s-schmidt.html

"Describing Trump’s unexpected November 2019 visit to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, he reports the White House wanted Mike Pence “on standby to take over the powers of the presidency temporarily if Trump had to undergo a procedure that would have required him to be anesthetized.” (The vice president never had to take this step.)"

[GONYK]

Emerson College has Trump +2 on Approval rating, and 51% Biden/49% Trump

sounds about right.

This is their poll from a month ago:



So if we ignore that they seem to be on a planet by themselves with some of their numbers, Trump only has a 2% bump.

[Stannis]

So they gave 3% of the undecided voters to Trump and 1% to Biden. I wonder how they got there?

[Pointgod]

Some positive news for the doom and gloomers.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841

The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.

Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.

Here’s why this is significant: In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes, while the combined Johnson/Stein vote was 223,599. (So Biden getting 47 percent of that third-party vote to Trump’s 20 percent easily overturns that ’16 margin.)

In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, while there were 196,656 Johnson/Stein voters. (Again, Biden winning those third-party voters by a 2-to-1 margin reverses that outcome.)

And in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes, and the combined Johnson/Stein total was 137,746. (Ditto: Hillary Clinton would likely be president today if she had won those third-party voters by a 47 percent to 20 percent split.)

It’s positive news but comes with a caveat.

And remember, the NBC News/WSJ poll is a national poll; it doesn’t tell us how third-party voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are breaking.

[Clyde_Style]

Trump's lawyers say court wrongly sided with Manhattan DA over financial records

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/trump-vance-tax-records/index.html

ARTICLE:

Spoiler:

President Donald Trump argued in a federal appellate court filing Monday that a district court had wrongly sided with Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance's office in a lawsuit over a subpoena to Trump's longtime accounting firm for his financial records, saying the lower court's assessment was "not the kind of process the Supreme Court envisioned when it remanded this case."

"In evaluating whether the President stated claims for overbreadth and bad faith, the district court imposed a withering standard of review that wouldn't have been used against any 'other citizen,' " Trump's attorneys wrote.

Trump's filing is the latest step in an extended legal tussle with the district attorney's office that will result in oral arguments Tuesday over Trump's request for a stay pending appeal before a three-judge panel on the 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals.

In their filing Monday, Trump's attorneys also warned that the President would suffer "irreparable harm" if the stay isn't granted, arguing that "while destruction or return of documents can provide a 'partial remedy' for the 'invasion of privacy,' ... the harm the President seeks to prevent is use of these records to engage in a bad-faith fishing expedition. The Court 'cannot unring that bell' even if the subpoena is eventually invalidated."

They also raised the possibility that the district attorney's office could disclose the records, saying New York law "doesn't strictly forbid the disclosure of records produced to the grand jury," and that such information could become public through an indictment or a grand-jury report.

"For the District Attorney's argument to even get out of the starting gate, then, he would need to commit to keep these records confidential during the appeal -- irrespective of what New York law might permit. He has made no such commitment," they wrote.
Trump's attorneys asked the appellate court, in the event it denies Trump's request for a stay pending appeal, to grant an administrative stay to give the Supreme Court time to consider Trump's stay application.

TRANSLATION: Trump's attorneys basically admit Trump is afraid he will lose the election if NY State reveals the contents of his taxes and/or indicts him before election day. They are not likely to win this now, so odds are the decision on whether to pull the trigger will be Vance's to make.

[GONYK]

So they gave 3% of the undecided voters to Trump and 1% to Biden. I wonder how they got there?

In the August poll, the undecided voters are still at 4%.

Trump gains a point and Biden loses a point.

[Pointgod]

Here’s an article that thought I’d post for you guys. Send this to everyone you know and have them send this to everyone they know. You’re not a passive observer in this election.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/08/2020-voting-guide.html

This guide is designed to help Americans vote—and make sure their ballots are actually counted. It is written for voters who are understandably worried that their vote might not be counted due to the vagaries of mail delivery and state election laws. And it assumes that voters will prefer to minimize their exposure to other individuals during a pandemic. Our chief goal is to recommend the safest, easiest, most reliable voting options in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We explain how you can vote absentee, from the safety of your own home, then return your ballot without relying on USPS.

[Clyde_Style]

Emerson College has Trump +2 on Approval rating, and 51% Biden/49% Trump

sounds about right.

So if we ignore that they seem to be on a planet by themselves with some of their numbers, Trump only has a 2% bump.

Always look to poll aggregates.

Right now, Biden's aggregate peak of 14 points nationally is now around 10 points so it tightened a bit. One or even several polls still need to be baked in over a week or two of additional polls to signify a solid trend

[Phish Tank]

sounds about right.

So if we ignore that they seem to be on a planet by themselves with some of their numbers, Trump only has a 2% bump.

Always look to poll aggregates.

Right now, Biden's aggregate peak of 14 points nationally is now around 10 points so it tightened a bit. One or even several polls still need to be baked in over a week or two of additional polls to signify a solid trend

just to clarify and make the point obvious:

1) I've ignored most of the "polls" in recent days regarding the race tightening up.
2) I'm generally not a fan of polls as they mostly cater to media markets and "twitter pundits" looking to make a horserace.
3) Since the campaign ignores these public polls, I do so too.

[Clyde_Style]

So if we ignore that they seem to be on a planet by themselves with some of their numbers, Trump only has a 2% bump.

Always look to poll aggregates.

Right now, Biden's aggregate peak of 14 points nationally is now around 10 points so it tightened a bit. One or even several polls still need to be baked in over a week or two of additional polls to signify a solid trend

just to clarify and make the point obvious:

1) I've ignored most of the "polls" in recent days regarding the race tightening up.
2) I'm generally not a fan of polls as they mostly cater to media markets and "twitter pundits" looking to make a horserace.
3) Since the campaign ignores these public polls, I do so too.

Snickers bars are probably not good for you, but sometimes you grab one at the checkout counter

[Phish Tank]

Always look to poll aggregates.

Right now, Biden's aggregate peak of 14 points nationally is now around 10 points so it tightened a bit. One or even several polls still need to be baked in over a week or two of additional polls to signify a solid trend

just to clarify and make the point obvious:

1) I've ignored most of the "polls" in recent days regarding the race tightening up.
2) I'm generally not a fan of polls as they mostly cater to media markets and "twitter pundits" looking to make a horserace.
3) Since the campaign ignores these public polls, I do so too.

Snickers bars are probably not good for you, but sometimes you grab one at the checkout counter

Don't blame you.

I have that same problem on Twitter sometimes.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Emerson College has Trump +2 on Approval rating, and 51% Biden/49% Trump

sounds about right.

This is their poll from a month ago:



So if we ignore that they seem to be on a planet by themselves with some of their numbers, Trump only has a 2% bump.

The fact it's even that close is just incredible.

[GONYK]

sounds about right.

This is their poll from a month ago:



So if we ignore that they seem to be on a planet by themselves with some of their numbers, Trump only has a 2% bump.

The fact it's even that close is just incredible.

I don't think we have enough evidence to say it is. That poll is super weird, and was weird back when everyone else had Biden +12.