Derrick Rose to NY

[Deeeez Knicks]

The stats don't even say that Rose isn't an upgrade over Calderon. The stats say they were both awful, just to varying degrees of awfulness vs. usage.

You've got a couple of problems though.. the stats don't take into account the offense the team ran (if you're judging offensive stats) and how well said players fit into it.

And you're comparing stats from a player on the bottom side of his career and a player who even though has had some major injury concerns is still right smack dab in the middle of his prime. So one can safely assume that Rose has the very real chance to be better statistically next year and Jose has the very real chance to be worse.

I'm not disagreeing. The stats are snapshots of the players in their respective careers.

I think it is safe to say that Rose is more physically talented than Jose Calderon. What the stats tell is that if Rose is used in a similar fashion on offense as he was in Chicago the last few years, he could be as bad (or worse in some cases) as Calderon was in a smaller usage role.

Can Rose improve? Sure. He definitely has a higher likelihood of improving than Jose. I question how high the likelihood is overall though given his age and injury history.

I think Rose will be statistically better next season, but I think that will correlate with a reduced role not necessarily wildly improved play.

This is where a change of scenary could make a big difference. I am sure there was a lot of pressure for Rose to play like an MVP in Chi. Average play would be a disappointment given the accomplishments and expectations.

This may be one of the rare times when there is less pressure in NY. Having that lifted off his shoulders where he can pick his spots better and lean on Melo and KP should help.

[god shammgod]

who knows what he'll be. but he's here now. just hope for the best.

[waya]

A lot of people reference the ESPN RPM stats. That stat is just highly flawed and you can throw it out the window once a player changes teams

Example #1: Amare is a top 30 defender.

Jose, Afflalo, Derrick Williams and Lance Thomas all had crappy DRPM's before and after joining our team. And Rolo had a good DRPM before and after.

Guys like Kanter and Bargnani sucked before and after switching teams. Maybe Amare is the outlier.

[trophywinner]

Basically what Ib said. Players coming back from major injuries usually have terrible advanced stats until their physical abilities catch back up with what they think they can do/what their role requires them to do. Rose has had a few major setbacks now.

If he hurts himself early, we're screwed. If he stays healthy, chances are he improves on his poor impact last year just by getting reps and still being young. Also, he's got more and better fitting options here. Get that 3/D guy on the wing and it's a good fit.

Id agree with the bold if he hadn't been slightly above average (at best) before the the injuries. Only thing we can hope is that taking a lesser role on offense (if he's willing to do it) will help improve his overall efficiency, even if it won't improve his terrible shot selection.

rose was only slightly above average before the injuries?

disagree on taking a lesser role on offense, he needs to be the pg, he needs the ball in his hands. he needs free reign on the floor. don't worry about melo and kp getting shots, rose is as unselfish as they come, he'll find melo & kp all day. he is still a big time playmaker. not saying rose needs to be the #1 scoring option, rather trust him with the ball and count on him to make plays for others when he's on the floor. otherwise, you'll see a lot of what bulls fans saw last season with rose under new coach fred hoiberg, where he was splitting pg duties with butler (a lot of standing around, as he's always been poor off-ball). lesser role would mean limiting him as a playmaker i think, and that's just not smart

and people too concerned about his efficiency at the rim. in all of rose's years in chicago, his misses at the rim were at times the bulls best offense because the bigs (noah, boozer, taj) feasted on offensive boards and put back opportunities. another reason why it's important knicks get a good rebounding big, like a joakim noah. all that's ever mattered with regards to rose on offense is that he is attacking and aggressive to the basket, because scoring generally follows.

[BKlutch]

When the stat geeks say rose over Calderon isn't a HUGE upgrade..the stat geeks need to be shunned.

Sorry. Take your saber metrics over there. Way far over there.

Nope, I'll keep them here thank you very much.

I don't only use stats, by the way - I watch games as well and watched 4 games from Rose this past year the night of the trade. Funny how I can get a PM from a Bulls fan saying that I'm right and there are still Knicks fans who claim that the stats lie. (Guess what? In this case, they are not- Rose was BAD last year.)

Also, Rose is an upgrade because of his attacking ability. In terms of everything else, he isn't.

Rose stats were bad last year but definitely skewed downwards trying to play through facial fracture he suffered the first day of training camp last year.

Also last year Jimmy took on a more ball dominant role he upped his ball handling and became more of lead guard, in the Harden mold which leaves role as a spot up shooter one that doesn't fit him well to say the least.

I think this team is a great fit for Derrick and he'll have a really strong year, he'll actually be the point on offense, I'm assuming that Phil has a plan in place to get a legit 3&D guy to share the wing with Melo, KP looks like a future star, and Melo as great as he is an on ball scorer is really deadly off the ball. Basketball is a game largely about fit, I think that with this team Rose will have spacing he's never had in Chicago, not only will his efficiency at the rim improve, his efficiency in genreal improve becaue that help defender that could sag off in Chicago will be a half a second later now and foul Rose. I'd be willing to wager any amount of money Rose's free throw attempts at least doubles from the 2.7 last season.

I'd take a lot of what Bulls fans say with a grain of salt there's a lot of hurt feelings from Rose not coming back quickly enough for them from the ACL, to some comments that he made that have been blown up and run with when the guy is just extremely inarticulate.

A good recent example of what you just wrote is GSW. In the finals, when they were in rhythm and received the ball when and where they expected it, Step and Klay shot well. When their offense was disrupted, neither shot that well from the 3. There may be several reasons, but a big one was their offensive rhythm. Jose ruined ours. Derrick will enhance it both for the betterment of his teammates and his own shot selection. This is a big factor, one I'm not certain there is a stat for.

[NBA Fan 1234]

Basically what Ib said. Players coming back from major injuries usually have terrible advanced stats until their physical abilities catch back up with what they think they can do/what their role requires them to do. Rose has had a few major setbacks now.

If he hurts himself early, we're screwed. If he stays healthy, chances are he improves on his poor impact last year just by getting reps and still being young. Also, he's got more and better fitting options here. Get that 3/D guy on the wing and it's a good fit.

Id agree with the bold if he hadn't been slightly above average (at best) before the the injuries. Only thing we can hope is that taking a lesser role on offense (if he's willing to do it) will help improve his overall efficiency, even if it won't improve his terrible shot selection.

Where is that coming from? His impact stats (Win Shares, VORP, BPM) and total performance stats (PER, TS%) were all well above average through 2012. I can't find RPM from 2011-12 but can't imagine it'd be any different.

Sorry, I meant shooting efficiency first and foremost. His defense has been average at best for his career as well, but his TS% has never been good.

Rose/NBA Average
08-09: .516/.544
09-10: .532/.543
10-11: .550/.541
11-12: .532/.527
12-13: N/A
13-14: .446/.541
14-15: .493/.534
15-16: .479/.541

He had 2 years above average for TS% (the second of which he only played in 32 games).

BPM is a straight box score stats - doesn't take into account efficiency. His oRTG was only good for two years - other years was either well below or at league average. Defensive rating was almost always, IIRC, below league average. VORP is based almost entirely off BPM (see my issues with it above). Where did you find the win shares? I'm actually curious about the WS/48, a stat which I like more than just plain WS, and have been looking for league averages for it for a little while. As for PER - I thought people stopped using that to boost up players? Oh well. He had 2 very good years for PER, two slightly above league average, one slightly below, and one WELL below. Considering the two very good years were both before he **** up his knees, I think it's safe to say those days are far behind him. The two slightly above league average are possible, even though the average for the last two is below average (15).

RPM I try to not use because of the huge variance and ability it has to overrate the importance of players (on either side of the ball).

I wonder what his advanced stats look like vs the average PG.

Again, I'm not saying he won't improve taking a lesser role (if he's willing to); I'm saying history shows he has never been particularly efficient. Something I've posted multiple times is his shot IQ is horrible. If he were to address that, his efficiency would go up.

[NBA Fan 1234]

Ugh, it's no use. Capn'O, I'll respond to you if you have anything else because I have a lot of respect for you as a poster. I'm not going to deal with the Rose fanboys who are infiltrating the Knicks forum. Was already warned about them via PM.

If people really want to see what Rose was like, watch 4 games (like I did on the night of the trade) from various points throughout the year. Keep a close eye on Rose and have BBREF open to Rose's page in one window and a smaller one open for NBA.com player tracking, if you can. You guys can come to conclusions for yourself. (I mean FULL games, not highlight videos.)

[Capn'O]

Id agree with the bold if he hadn't been slightly above average (at best) before the the injuries. Only thing we can hope is that taking a lesser role on offense (if he's willing to do it) will help improve his overall efficiency, even if it won't improve his terrible shot selection.

Where is that coming from? His impact stats (Win Shares, VORP, BPM) and total performance stats (PER, TS%) were all well above average through 2012. I can't find RPM from 2011-12 but can't imagine it'd be any different.

Sorry, I meant shooting efficiency first and foremost. His defense has been average at best for his career as well, but his TS% has never been good.

Rose/NBA Average
08-09: .516/.544
09-10: .532/.543
10-11: .550/.541
11-12: .532/.527
12-13: N/A
13-14: .446/.541
14-15: .493/.534
15-16: .479/.541

He had 2 years above average for TS% (the second of which he only played in 32 games).

BPM is a straight box score stats - doesn't take into account efficiency. His oRTG was only good for two years - other years was either well below or at league average. Defensive rating was almost always, IIRC, below league average. VORP is based almost entirely off BPM (see my issues with it above). Where did you find the win shares? I'm actually curious about the WS/48, a stat which I like more than just plain WS, and have been looking for league averages for it for a little while. As for PER - I thought people stopped using that to boost up players? Oh well. He had 2 very good years for PER, two slightly above league average, one slightly below, and one WELL below. Considering the two very good years were both before he **** up his knees, I think it's safe to say those days are far behind him. The two slightly above league average are possible, even though the average for the last two is below average (15).

RPM I try to not use because of the huge variance and ability it has to overrate the importance of players (on either side of the ball).

I wonder what his advanced stats look like vs the average PG.

Again, I'm not saying he won't improve taking a lesser role (if he's willing to); I'm saying history shows he has never been particularly efficient. Something I've posted multiple times is his shot IQ is horrible. If he were to address that, his efficiency would go up.

Basketball Ref does Winshares and WS/48 under "Advanced."

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rosede01.html

WS/48 in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 were both above 0.2, which are very good numbers.

[StephNYKurry]

Nope, I'll keep them here thank you very much.

I don't only use stats, by the way - I watch games as well and watched 4 games from Rose this past year the night of the trade. Funny how I can get a PM from a Bulls fan saying that I'm right and there are still Knicks fans who claim that the stats lie. (Guess what? In this case, they are not- Rose was BAD last year.)

Also, Rose is an upgrade because of his attacking ability. In terms of everything else, he isn't.

Rose stats were bad last year but definitely skewed downwards trying to play through facial fracture he suffered the first day of training camp last year.

Also last year Jimmy took on a more ball dominant role he upped his ball handling and became more of lead guard, in the Harden mold which leaves role as a spot up shooter one that doesn't fit him well to say the least.

I think this team is a great fit for Derrick and he'll have a really strong year, he'll actually be the point on offense, I'm assuming that Phil has a plan in place to get a legit 3&D guy to share the wing with Melo, KP looks like a future star, and Melo as great as he is an on ball scorer is really deadly off the ball. Basketball is a game largely about fit, I think that with this team Rose will have spacing he's never had in Chicago, not only will his efficiency at the rim improve, his efficiency in genreal improve becaue that help defender that could sag off in Chicago will be a half a second later now and foul Rose. I'd be willing to wager any amount of money Rose's free throw attempts at least doubles from the 2.7 last season.

I'd take a lot of what Bulls fans say with a grain of salt there's a lot of hurt feelings from Rose not coming back quickly enough for them from the ACL, to some comments that he made that have been blown up and run with when the guy is just extremely inarticulate.

A good recent example of what you just wrote is GSW. In the finals, when they were in rhythm and received the ball when and where they expected it, Step and Klay shot well. When their offense was disrupted, neither shot that well from the 3. There may be several reasons, but a big one was their offensive rhythm. Jose ruined ours. Derrick will enhance it both for the betterment of his teammates and his own shot selection. This is a big factor, one I'm not certain there is a stat for.

Don't be a punk fam...say what you wanna say

And say it with your chest when you do


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NBA Fan 1234]

Where is that coming from? His impact stats (Win Shares, VORP, BPM) and total performance stats (PER, TS%) were all well above average through 2012. I can't find RPM from 2011-12 but can't imagine it'd be any different.

Sorry, I meant shooting efficiency first and foremost. His defense has been average at best for his career as well, but his TS% has never been good.

Rose/NBA Average
08-09: .516/.544
09-10: .532/.543
10-11: .550/.541
11-12: .532/.527
12-13: N/A
13-14: .446/.541
14-15: .493/.534
15-16: .479/.541

He had 2 years above average for TS% (the second of which he only played in 32 games).

BPM is a straight box score stats - doesn't take into account efficiency. His oRTG was only good for two years - other years was either well below or at league average. Defensive rating was almost always, IIRC, below league average. VORP is based almost entirely off BPM (see my issues with it above). Where did you find the win shares? I'm actually curious about the WS/48, a stat which I like more than just plain WS, and have been looking for league averages for it for a little while. As for PER - I thought people stopped using that to boost up players? Oh well. He had 2 very good years for PER, two slightly above league average, one slightly below, and one WELL below. Considering the two very good years were both before he **** up his knees, I think it's safe to say those days are far behind him. The two slightly above league average are possible, even though the average for the last two is below average (15).

RPM I try to not use because of the huge variance and ability it has to overrate the importance of players (on either side of the ball).

I wonder what his advanced stats look like vs the average PG.

Again, I'm not saying he won't improve taking a lesser role (if he's willing to); I'm saying history shows he has never been particularly efficient. Something I've posted multiple times is his shot IQ is horrible. If he were to address that, his efficiency would go up.

Basketball Ref does Winshares and /48 under "Advanced."

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rosede01.html

2010-2012 were both above 0.2, which are very good numbers.

I thought you had actual year by year NBA averages. I saw those a while ago Yeah, the MVP year and the following season. Those look like outliers, though.

[NBA Fan 1234]

Nope, I'll keep them here thank you very much.

I don't only use stats, by the way - I watch games as well and watched 4 games from Rose this past year the night of the trade. Funny how I can get a PM from a Bulls fan saying that I'm right and there are still Knicks fans who claim that the stats lie. (Guess what? In this case, they are not- Rose was BAD last year.)

Also, Rose is an upgrade because of his attacking ability. In terms of everything else, he isn't.

Rose stats were bad last year but definitely skewed downwards trying to play through facial fracture he suffered the first day of training camp last year.

Also last year Jimmy took on a more ball dominant role he upped his ball handling and became more of lead guard, in the Harden mold which leaves role as a spot up shooter one that doesn't fit him well to say the least.

I think this team is a great fit for Derrick and he'll have a really strong year, he'll actually be the point on offense, I'm assuming that Phil has a plan in place to get a legit 3&D guy to share the wing with Melo, KP looks like a future star, and Melo as great as he is an on ball scorer is really deadly off the ball. Basketball is a game largely about fit, I think that with this team Rose will have spacing he's never had in Chicago, not only will his efficiency at the rim improve, his efficiency in genreal improve becaue that help defender that could sag off in Chicago will be a half a second later now and foul Rose. I'd be willing to wager any amount of money Rose's free throw attempts at least doubles from the 2.7 last season.

I'd take a lot of what Bulls fans say with a grain of salt there's a lot of hurt feelings from Rose not coming back quickly enough for them from the ACL, to some comments that he made that have been blown up and run with when the guy is just extremely inarticulate.

A good recent example of what you just wrote is GSW. In the finals, when they were in rhythm and received the ball when and where they expected it, Step and Klay shot well. When their offense was disrupted, neither shot that well from the 3. There may be several reasons, but a big one was their offensive rhythm. Jose ruined ours. Derrick will enhance it both for the betterment of his teammates and his own shot selection. This is a big factor, one I'm not certain there is a stat for.

Derrick will improve it because of his high USG%, high turnover numbers (which I guess could be worse given his high USG%), and low efficiency? If you want to say he'll get the team better shots by sucking in the defense when he collapses opening up shots for KP, Melo, etc then yeah, that could happen - but when teams learn he's not the same finisher he was earlier in his career, the defense might stop helping as much.

[trophywinner]

but when teams learn he's not the same finisher he was earlier in his career, the defense might stop helping as much.

wouldn't that bode well for rose? you'd be giving him a cleaner look at the basket....there's a reason why opposing defenses still over commit on him and drop 2-3 defenders when he drives....fans may look at it one way, but nba coaches/players know better.

testament to how much pressure rose can still put on opposing defenses. they can collapse on his drives and force him into difficult shots and to be a facilitator, or have faith that he doesn't blow past your big and maneuver his way in for an easy layup. teams usually collapse on rose when he attacks, but now in ny, he has melo & kp to pass to, as opposed to doug mcderrmot and niko mirotic. there's going be so much space for rose to do rose things.

[cmd1985]

Rose stats were bad last year but definitely skewed downwards trying to play through facial fracture he suffered the first day of training camp last year.

Also last year Jimmy took on a more ball dominant role he upped his ball handling and became more of lead guard, in the Harden mold which leaves role as a spot up shooter one that doesn't fit him well to say the least.

I think this team is a great fit for Derrick and he'll have a really strong year, he'll actually be the point on offense, I'm assuming that Phil has a plan in place to get a legit 3&D guy to share the wing with Melo, KP looks like a future star, and Melo as great as he is an on ball scorer is really deadly off the ball. Basketball is a game largely about fit, I think that with this team Rose will have spacing he's never had in Chicago, not only will his efficiency at the rim improve, his efficiency in genreal improve becaue that help defender that could sag off in Chicago will be a half a second later now and foul Rose. I'd be willing to wager any amount of money Rose's free throw attempts at least doubles from the 2.7 last season.

I'd take a lot of what Bulls fans say with a grain of salt there's a lot of hurt feelings from Rose not coming back quickly enough for them from the ACL, to some comments that he made that have been blown up and run with when the guy is just extremely inarticulate.

A good recent example of what you just wrote is GSW. In the finals, when they were in rhythm and received the ball when and where they expected it, Step and Klay shot well. When their offense was disrupted, neither shot that well from the 3. There may be several reasons, but a big one was their offensive rhythm. Jose ruined ours. Derrick will enhance it both for the betterment of his teammates and his own shot selection. This is a big factor, one I'm not certain there is a stat for.

Derrick will improve it because of his high USG%, high turnover numbers (which I guess could be worse given his high USG%), and low efficiency? If you want to say he'll get the team better shots by sucking in the defense when he collapses opening up shots for KP, Melo, etc then yeah, that could happen - but when teams learn he's not the same finisher he was earlier in his career, the defense might stop helping as much.

He's not a poor finisher though, I guess your 4 games you watched on draft night and basketball reference made you the expert, but this will be my last post. I said what I meant. Derrick is still a great finisher. The difference between him scoring efficiently and not is his ability to get to the FT line, if teams don't help send help Derrick will score at the rim still. He's never had a squad like this before it will improve looks for himself and for guys like Melo and KP. Derrick looked really spry the second half of the season especially coming out of the all star break. He's not lost as much athletically as people think the quickness is still there vertically is where it's a little different but he's actually rather crafty around the bucket and that little additional spacing will help him immensely.

As far shot selection as long as he's shooting spot up 3's and not pulling up off the dribble for 3 he should be fine. Early on in his career he was one of the elite mid range players in the game when he developed his 3 point shot his MVP year he went away from that, it's something that he should really get back to because teams still pack in and just knocking down that 16-18 footer will open things up for everyone.

I guess if someone has a opinion on Rose that he doesn't suck he's a fanboy. I just happened to see not only four games but the other 62 he played in as well. Thanks for listening to arguments who differ from yours.

[NBA Fan 1234]

but when teams learn he's not the same finisher he was earlier in his career, the defense might stop helping as much.

wouldn't that bode well for rose? you'd be giving him a cleaner look at the basket....there's a reason why opposing defenses still over commit on him and drop 2-3 defenders when he drives....fans may look at it one way, but nba coaches/players know better.

He's not the same athlete he was earlier in his career. Still a good one, but he'll have to get by the primary defender and finish through him and the overloaded defense (which will be there anyway because most teams try to run some semblance of Thibs' defense from Boston/Chicago). There wouldn't be a focus on stopping him at the rim until he can prove he can finish at the rim with "normal" help defense.

I'm also not some regular common fan, FYI. I have legitimate experience working with a pro team.

[Capn'O]

Sorry, I meant shooting efficiency first and foremost. His defense has been average at best for his career as well, but his TS% has never been good.

Rose/NBA Average
08-09: .516/.544
09-10: .532/.543
10-11: .550/.541
11-12: .532/.527
12-13: N/A
13-14: .446/.541
14-15: .493/.534
15-16: .479/.541

He had 2 years above average for TS% (the second of which he only played in 32 games).

BPM is a straight box score stats - doesn't take into account efficiency. His oRTG was only good for two years - other years was either well below or at league average. Defensive rating was almost always, IIRC, below league average. VORP is based almost entirely off BPM (see my issues with it above). Where did you find the win shares? I'm actually curious about the WS/48, a stat which I like more than just plain WS, and have been looking for league averages for it for a little while. As for PER - I thought people stopped using that to boost up players? Oh well. He had 2 very good years for PER, two slightly above league average, one slightly below, and one WELL below. Considering the two very good years were both before he **** up his knees, I think it's safe to say those days are far behind him. The two slightly above league average are possible, even though the average for the last two is below average (15).

RPM I try to not use because of the huge variance and ability it has to overrate the importance of players (on either side of the ball).

I wonder what his advanced stats look like vs the average PG.

Again, I'm not saying he won't improve taking a lesser role (if he's willing to); I'm saying history shows he has never been particularly efficient. Something I've posted multiple times is his shot IQ is horrible. If he were to address that, his efficiency would go up.

Basketball Ref does Winshares and /48 under "Advanced."

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rosede01.html

2010-2012 were both above 0.2, which are very good numbers.

I thought you had actual year by year NBA averages. I saw those a while ago Yeah, the MVP year and the following season. Those look like outliers, though.

Those were the years in question from your first post. I'm not sure about averages but he was #10 in the league both times. Even from an efficiency standpoint, he was solid in those years.

Were they outliers? There's not really a normal in his career. He was a raw one and done. Then a top level player under Thibs. Then constantly returning from injury. It's hard to say what he'll be now. Building on last season's relative health, I do think his addition bodes well for Melo and KP, if not his own efficiency. If he breaks again... break out the tank gear again.

[BKlutch]

Rose stats were bad last year but definitely skewed downwards trying to play through facial fracture he suffered the first day of training camp last year.

Also last year Jimmy took on a more ball dominant role he upped his ball handling and became more of lead guard, in the Harden mold which leaves role as a spot up shooter one that doesn't fit him well to say the least.

I think this team is a great fit for Derrick and he'll have a really strong year, he'll actually be the point on offense, I'm assuming that Phil has a plan in place to get a legit 3&D guy to share the wing with Melo, KP looks like a future star, and Melo as great as he is an on ball scorer is really deadly off the ball. Basketball is a game largely about fit, I think that with this team Rose will have spacing he's never had in Chicago, not only will his efficiency at the rim improve, his efficiency in genreal improve becaue that help defender that could sag off in Chicago will be a half a second later now and foul Rose. I'd be willing to wager any amount of money Rose's free throw attempts at least doubles from the 2.7 last season.

I'd take a lot of what Bulls fans say with a grain of salt there's a lot of hurt feelings from Rose not coming back quickly enough for them from the ACL, to some comments that he made that have been blown up and run with when the guy is just extremely inarticulate.

A good recent example of what you just wrote is GSW. In the finals, when they were in rhythm and received the ball when and where they expected it, Step and Klay shot well. When their offense was disrupted, neither shot that well from the 3. There may be several reasons, but a big one was their offensive rhythm. Jose ruined ours. Derrick will enhance it both for the betterment of his teammates and his own shot selection. This is a big factor, one I'm not certain there is a stat for.

Derrick will improve it because of his high USG%, high turnover numbers (which I guess could be worse given his high USG%), and low efficiency? If you want to say he'll get the team better shots by sucking in the defense when he collapses opening up shots for KP, Melo, etc then yeah, that could happen - but when teams learn he's not the same finisher he was earlier in his career, the defense might stop helping as much.

You're saying he's really bad because he's not when he was as an MVP, and when he was an MVP, he wasn't that great. I'm saying he plays a different offense than our point guard did last year. I think I remember only 3 drives by Jose that I thought were really good all year.

As to whether this facilitates the offense, or whether he's so deteriorated that he doesn't improve our team scoring, is something we'll all see soon enough. Whether he can really play in sync with Melo, KP, and our new (as yet undetermined) center really is the key, and we'll find out very quickly once the season starts.

[Deeeez Knicks]

A lot of people reference the ESPN RPM stats. That stat is just highly flawed and you can throw it out the window once a player changes teams

Example #1: Amare is a top 30 defender.

Jose, Afflalo, Derrick Williams and Lance Thomas all had crappy DRPM's before and after joining our team. And Rolo had a good DRPM before and after.

Guys like Kanter and Bargnani sucked before and after switching teams. Maybe Amare is the outlier.

According to RPM, Calderon was avg this year (#24 PG with a +0.22), but last year and the year before he was terrible (#71PG).

Lopez was the #41C this year. Last year he was #29. The year before he was #12. He is basically the same player every year.

Frye is another example. #4 PF this year with a huge RPM, but #52 last year with a bad RPM.

Pau was a top 10 defensive C this year. Just looking at the top 40 overall, and there are a lot of players who shouldn’t be there.

I am just not a fan of plus/minus especially to compare different players on different teams.

[NBA Fan 1234]

Basketball Ref does Winshares and /48 under "Advanced."

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rosede01.html

2010-2012 were both above 0.2, which are very good numbers.

I thought you had actual year by year NBA averages. I saw those a while ago Yeah, the MVP year and the following season. Those look like outliers, though.

Those were the years in question from your first post. I'm not sure about averages but he was #10 in the league both times. Even from an efficiency standpoint, he was solid in those years.

Were they outliers? There's not really a normal in his career. He was a raw one and done. Then a top level player under Thibs. Then constantly returning from injury. It's hard to say what he'll be now. Building on last season's relative health, I do think his addition bodes well for Melo and KP, if not his own efficiency. If he breaks again... break out the tank gear again.

I'd say it's an outlier given his second year (if we want to ignore the first because he was a 1 and done, which I'm okay doing) and his last two years. Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt and say his WS/48 went up last year after he got healthy, how much would people be willing to say? He's at .009 last year and .038 the year before - absolute BEST case he's at .100? Maybe? I'd say it's more in the .5-.75 range.

But you're right - I think having Rose might benefit Melo and KP more than it might benefit Rose himself (even though there might be an uptick for him as well). I'm worried that if he doesn't break we give him a long term deal and screw ourselves into Amar'e 2.0. I was on the phone with one of my best friends a few days ago and we both agreed that best case scenario with Rose's health + us not striking out completely in FA, we sneak into the playoffs as a bottom 2 team and lose in the first round. Worst case scenario with Rose's health he gets hurt and we lose a lot (again), but get a high draft pick in a loaded draft.

[NBA Fan 1234]

A good recent example of what you just wrote is GSW. In the finals, when they were in rhythm and received the ball when and where they expected it, Step and Klay shot well. When their offense was disrupted, neither shot that well from the 3. There may be several reasons, but a big one was their offensive rhythm. Jose ruined ours. Derrick will enhance it both for the betterment of his teammates and his own shot selection. This is a big factor, one I'm not certain there is a stat for.

Derrick will improve it because of his high USG%, high turnover numbers (which I guess could be worse given his high USG%), and low efficiency? If you want to say he'll get the team better shots by sucking in the defense when he collapses opening up shots for KP, Melo, etc then yeah, that could happen - but when teams learn he's not the same finisher he was earlier in his career, the defense might stop helping as much.

You're saying he's really bad because he's not when he was as an MVP, and when he was an MVP, he wasn't that great. I'm saying he plays a different offense than our point guard did last year. I think I remember only 3 drives by Jose that I thought were really good all year.

As to whether this facilitates the offense, or whether he's so deteriorated that he doesn't improve our team scoring, is something we'll all see soon enough. Whether he can really play in sync with Melo, KP, and our new (as yet undetermined) center really is the key, and we'll find out very quickly once the season starts.

I'm not saying he's really bad - I'm saying, recently, he's BEEN very bad. He plays a different offense than Jose, who would only spot up, but Rose needs to work on his shot IQ and taking a lesser role in the offense before I say anything about him "enhancing" our offense in a big way. I've said multiple times his driving will help - but his shot IQ, turnovers, and USG% will all hurt. You gotta take the good with the bad.

[NBA Fan 1234]

Anyways, I'm done here. We'll see what happens. I've done my HW and feel safe with my prediction; if I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I'll eat my crow. (Also, the 4 games I watched the night of the trade were not the only games I watched of his all year - they were the only games of his Rose ad 100% of my attention.)