GONYK wrote:
I think this election more than proved that Trump was insulated from normal political metrics like approval ratings and material conditions. 200k+ Americans died from a pandemic he bungled and his approval rating remained the same.
I don't think this addresses my point about down ballot failures at all. Trump didn't exceed expectations, Susan Collins did. The political metrics that led to a blue wave in 2018, only got worse in 2020. Trump lost...down ballot Republicans won. There's a disconnect here that I don't think you can just throw out all the metrics to explain.
GONYK wrote:I think there is a difference between "Dems aren't as good across the board as they were before gaining the Presidency" and "Dems are in an objectively terrible spot". The former is true, the latter is debatable and depends on how they conduct themselves going forward.
There's also a difference between pointing out that their chances to enact change took a hit and just flat out calling it an objectively terrible spot. They lost leverage in the House, they lost the Judiciary for a lifetime and they don't have the numbers in the Senate to force changes regardless of Georgia special election outcomes. They failed to make any gains in state legislatures that they needed off of a census year. They have limited options for enacting change thanks to the make up of the three branches after this election.
Is there a possibility that Joe Biden comes with a wrecking ball full of executive actions that bring about sweeping changes to the country? Sure. Was the entire point of his campaign that he
isn't that guy which is why he's a safe choice though? Absolutely.
GONYK wrote:I also think "Dems are not where we expected them to be all summer" is not truly a legitimate take, since that expectation was built on bad data.
Dems are in a position to potentially control the WH and Congress.
Well no, only the polling can be considered "bad data." The rest of the data is accurate. We are in a pandemic, most people didn't like Trump after all, businesses are in trouble as second lockdowns approach and there are indeed 200 thousand dead Americans. That the Dems failed to connect those material pains to the Republicans down ballot in any meaningful way is a costly mistake. We can ignore that data or claim that it just isn't applicable but I don't think it would be fair to delegitimize anyone's take who is actually accounting for realities in the numbers just because things could have been worse.
Yes, the Dems might eke out control of Congress relying on conservative Dems like Joe Manchin in tough swing districts to side with them on policy. They won the presidency and while they lost seats in the House, they didn't lose the House outright which is important. But this is all meaningless if conservative Dems water down legislation by playing deficit hawk for publicity or if the courts strike down attempts to change things. The redistricting fight is lost too, no debating on that one.
We can do a wait and see on this though. Let's see if Biden can get his promises through or if the conversation changes as a result of the make-up of Congress. I've been caught in this cycle before, but if he breaks it I'll be happy to eat crow.
